The Coming Oil Crisis

Guest Article by: Allison Morris

If you're planning for the future, consider stockpiling petroleum products. There's an oil crisis coming, and it's unavoidable. Our world's oil reserves aren't as widespread as we're often led to believe. In fact, a 2009 Wikileak found that Saudi Arabia overstated their number of oil barrels by about 40%. As our oil supplies wane, gas prices skyrocket. In the last decade, they have almost doubled. High prices and low supply aren't our only problems — many consumers want to know what will happen when we can't get our oil fix. Fracking, using dirty coal, and other forms of mining are just a few of the toxic alternatives to our nation's dependence on oil and petroleum products. If fortune favors the prepared mind, consider the implications and necessary actions of a population without access to enough petroleum. It's scary! For more information about the coming oil crisis, consider the infographic by Carinsurance.org below.

 

 

Former Director of Intelligence Schlesinger on Peak Oil

I would like to take the opportunity and recommend an interview with the former Director of Intelligence at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) James R. Schlesinger on the subject of Peak Oil. Schlesinger has had a number of different high posts in the US including Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy.

The Battle of Perception has begun

On the 30th of March 2012 the Expert Group for Environmental Studies, a group attached to the Swedish Government presented the report “Peak Oil – An Economical Analysis”. The report is one of the most critical reports released so far and presents the perspective that the theory of Peak Oil is wrong and that it is not built upon a scientific basis.  In an article in a Swedish Newspaper the main author of the report Øystein Noreng argues that the theory of Peak Oil creates confusion and that the idea can lead to political decisions that can harm society.

Looking back

During the last 150 year human civilization has gone through an unprecedented development. The World population has from around 2 billion people to a level of 7 billion people in 2012 and is expected to rise to a level of around 10 billion in 2050. During this period of time fossil fuels has become a major part of providing the energy required to power the process of industrialization. The era started with the drilling of the first oil well by Colonel James Drake in 1859; in 1876 the US produced around 10 million barrels of oil – per year. In the beginning most of the oil was used for kerosene but oil was gradually starting to replace coal as a fuel to power ships since its much higher energy content allowed for greater range and speed. And with the introduction of the automobile the consumption increased sharply; In 1902 there was just over 20000 automobiles in the United States; a number that increased to over 1 million by the end of the First World War and today there is over 250 million passenger vehicles in the United States.

For a long period of time the United States was the world leading oil producer. At the time of the second World War the US produced around 4 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) and the oil production continued to increase up until the 1970 when the US produced 9,5 mb/d per day, from that point the US production level has started to decrease; today the domestic US production is around 5,5 mb/d (US EIA). In order to cope with the loss of production the solution has been to import oil from other countries; in 1998 for the first time in history the US imported half of the oil it uses. This is not however not unique for the United States; in 1992 the oil imports to China became bigger than the domestic production.

Drill Baby Drill

One argument that is often presented is that exploration within the US has been stalled by environmental considerations and policies that have prevented the production of oil to increase. Some aspects can be interesting to look closer at; the World’s 20 largest oil fields currently produce around 19 million barrels of oil per day, or around 25% of the world’s total production. The majority of these fields where discovered before 1970, none of these field was discovered after 1985. In other words; most of them was discovered around the second half of the last century, and this is despite the technological advancement that has been made in this field.

So why isn’t the US Government doing anything about the situation? Why isn’t prospecting increasing in order to break the cycle and make the US energy independent? One problem here is that the numbers is rarely debated in the media. Saudi Arabia is the world largest Oil producer; in 2010 the country produced around 10 million barrels of oil per day, as previous discussed The United States produced around 5,5 million barrels per day. This clearly gives an indicator that the Saudis almost produce twice the amount oil per day compared to the US, but this is not where the story gets interesting.  In order to achieve this oil the Saudis have 2900 producing wells. The United States need 370.000 wells in order to produce half the amount of the Saudis. The Saudis employ just fewer than 100.000 people in the oil and gas sector; the United States over 2 million (IEA 2011: 139).

The drilling off shore has become a major part of the US oil production; the technology today makes it possible to reach enormous depths in order to extract oil; other technologies like hydraulic fracturing has also started being used but even this has not allowed the US to become energy independent. That there are also risks to operating under such extreme conditions became clear after the Deep Water Horizon incident in the Mexican Gulf and in the case of hydraulic fracturing there are concerns surrounding the possible effects on ground water and the amount of water required for the process.

Changing Perceptions

The Idea of Growth is of the most well rotted ideas in our modern society. We are constantly informed about the development in the stock market, the profits of corporations and the development of the Gross Domestic Product of different countries. And we expect them to increase; year after year. This has been the normal state for the last 150 years; all people how have lived through this time has experienced an unprecedented development. The idea of Growth is a fundamental part of all current political and economical institutions.  It’s a central idea preached by capitalists, socialists and even within the Green Movement. The thing that the idea of Growth does not take into consideration is however that there might be physical limitations to Growth in the form of Oil, Coal, Gas, Minerals, Fresh Water, Land, Forests and other resources.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is one of the world’s leading organizations that have been producing forecasts for the entire energy sector since 1998 in the report series World Energy Outlook. The Outlook for oil in 2000 indicated that in the year 2020 the world would consume 115 mb/d of oil. Up until the year 2010 the IEA indicated that the production of Crude Oil would continue to increase until at least 2030. But in 2010 something changed. The IEA produced a new forecast where it concluded that the production of Crude Oil most likely peaked in 2006 with a production of around 70mb/d (IEA 2010: 125). The IEA does however believe that production will remain on a level of just under 70 mb/d until 2035 and that the production of non conventional oil sources and bio fuels will increase so that the total amount of production will increase from 85,7mb/d to 107,1 mb/d in 2035. The IEA standpoint that we have already reached the peak in crude oil production was a very sharp turn from the previous outlooks. The US Energy Information Administration (US EIA) makes a very different assessment; in the latest outlook the US EIA believes that production of Crude Oil will continue to increase until 2035 with more than 12 extra million barrels per day adding up to a level of 112 mb/d compared to the IEA prediction of 107,1 mb/d in 2035 (US EIA 2011: 26).

The IEA lifts other interesting aspect as well; those fields that produced 69 mb/d of crude oil in 2010 in expected to decrease in their production to a level of 22mb/d in 2035. The level of production is however expected to remain of a level of just under 70mb/d from Crude Oil yet to be developed and yet to be found. This new expected findings would have to be more than four times larger than the production of Saudi Arabia; any so far only one Saudi Arabia has been discovered.

Bending the Map

In the book "Deep Survival" Laurence Gonzales discuss what happens to people how get lost in the wild. Lawrence argue that getting lost is something anyone can do; no matter how well trained or experienced you are; it’s very easy going from being having a nice time in the outdoors to being a victim struggling to survive. When reality does not match the mental map we have of our surroundings it very easy to continue ahead like we still know where we are going; in orienteering this is called bending the map. “You’re trying to make to make reality conform to your expectations rather than to see what is really there” (Gonzales 2003: 158-163).


The expectations we have today created from 150 years of continual growth makes it very easy to believe that what we can expect from the future will be even more growth. The reserves in Saudi Arabia and many other OPEC countries is an issue that is often debated. After the nationalization of the oil production in Saudi Arabia and the low oil price in the 1980:s many Saudi Arabia raised their reported reserves significantly; from 107,9 billion barrels to over 260 billion barrels in 1988. And the reported reserves in have remained the same; even after 24 years of production. The IEA expects the production is Saudi Arabia to increase to 15 mb/d in 2035. If this will happen or not is impossible to answer. But in 2010 a diplomatic cable from the embassy in Riyadh discussed and interview with Dr Sadad al-Husseini the former Executive Vice President for Exploration and Production is Aramco. Al-Husseini reported that he believes that the reserves are exaggerated by around 40% and that Saudi Arabia will reach a maximum production level of 12 mb/d and then start to decline in production somewhere around 2020 (WikiLeaks 2010).

The Situation Today

The United States has twice as many cars per persons compared to Western Europe. The infrastructure is also more focused on the cars as a means of transport leaving many with no alternative to using a car. The Gas Prices are currently around 4 dollars per Gallon in the US; one of the highest levels in history. The US prices are still around half the price compared to many countries in Europe where the price is over 8 dollars a Gallon since the US taxes on fuels are comparatively low. Since so many Americans are dependent upon a motor vehicle for transportation the US is very vulnerable if the access to oil will decrease and if the prices will continue to rise. Higher oil prices might also affect other prices like food prices. Many argue that we will find technological solutions for the problems we face and an increase in price will drive the advancement of alternatives. If this will be the case or not I do not know and I will not pretend that I do. To me it’s clear that our expectations of growth are shaping the way the people of the world and its institutions are looking at the world. It’s also clear that the perception of institutions like the IEA gradually has started to shift while other institutions like the United States Energy Information Administration still has the same perception that the IEA had a few years ago. How that is right and how that is wrong only time can tell.

If the Peak becomes Reality

The lack of discussion of the subject is the largest problem in my opinion in combination with the idea of infinite Growth. Many discuss the access to oil like it will be there or it will not be there. If a Peak in the World Production of Oil is reached it does not mean that all oil will suddenly be gone; but it will mean that the total production will start to decline over time; making it a process and not an event. One can only speculate concerning the effects of such an outcome but this would mean that we would be going from a Paradigm of constant Growth to a Paradigm when we will have less and less of a commodity that we have gotten use to having widely available. Some possible effects could include;

·         If it becomes clear to nations that things are changing its possible that we will see an increased level of nationalization of the oil production in order to gain control over the oil production making it hard for countries how depend upon import of fuels to gain the access to this oil on the international market.

·         The Prices of Oil might continue to rise to unprecedented levels and we might also start to see shortages meaning that there oil will not be available in the same quantity that we have been used to.

·         Rationing of oil and fuels and other measures like reducing the speed limits

·         It’s also possible that this will have a major impact on the relations between nations leading to conflict over the resources available. It’s also possible that states where oil revenues has been a major source of income might experience social unrest, internal conflict or even state collapse if oil revenues start to decline; the Arabian Spring can be seen as a case of this development.

Conclusion

All major political parties and modern economical institutions are focused on the notion of economical growth. The forecasts regarding the availability concerning oil have for a long time had a very positive outlook. In the year 2000 it was believed that we would reach a level of 120mb/d by 2020, today some institutions believe that we will reach a level of around 107mb/d by 2035 and that the Global Peak in the production of Crude Oil already has been reached and that we will face a permanent decline while other fuels made from Coal, Gas and Unconventional Oil will continue to increase.

Peak Oil has for a long time been a subject that has not been widely discussed by political parties and international institutions; the report produced by the Swedish Expert for Environmental Studies presents a new shift directly attacking the theory and the researchers that presents it. The author of the report and well known economist presents a quite well written report focusing on the markets dynamics and the technological development as tools that will solve the problems we encounter. What the future outcome will be is impossible for me to answer; but one thing that can be seen throughout history is that experts that have been working in an old paradigm often have a very hard time adjusting when paradigms shift since the knowledge and rules from the old paradigm does not apply to the new paradigm. It’s also clear that IEA was unable to predict the Peak of Crude Oil and that it took several years after the Peak for them to realize that something had changed. In this case it seems like the IEA was “bending the map”.

Other articles:

Is Peak Oil already here?

US EIA – No Peak in World Oil Production In Another 23 Years

Peak Oil and our Mental Models – The WikiLeaks Cable and the World’s Largest Oilfields

Peak Oil and Our Mental Models. The WikiLeaks Cable and The World’s Largest Oil Fields.

In the two previous articles on Peak Oil I have discussed the future Outlooks concerning Oil made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). In this article I will focus on two aspects in depth. The first aspect is to focus on the World’s largest Oil Fields and see what importance they play for the world oil production. The second aspect is to focus on the secret diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks from US embassy in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia.

In the 2011 World Energy Outlook by the IEA the Production of Crude Oil from the oil fields that produce oil in 2010 in expected to drop by over Two-Thirds by 2035. Quote: “We project that crude oil production from fields that were producing in 2010 will drop from 69mb/to 22mb/d by 2025 – a fall of over two-thirds”. But the IEA still expects the crude world production to remain at 67,9 mb/d per day 2035 from Crude Oil Yet to be found and Yet to be developed (WEO 2011: 122-123).

The WikiLeaks Cable
In 2010 WikiLeaks made the largest publication of classified material in history when a large number of US diplomatic cables were released. Among these cables one cable from the US Embassy in Riyadh from the 10th of December 2007 was released. This cable focus on an interview with Dr Sadad al-Husseini. Al-Husseini was formerly the Executive Vice President for Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco, he also has Ph.D. in Geological Sciences. In this interview al-Hussseini warns that the Saudi Oil Reserves may be overstated by as much as 40%. Concerning the implication of this statement al-Husseini believes that:

“In al-Husseini’s view, once 50 percent depletion of original proven reserves has been reached and the 180 billion bbls threshold crossed, a slow but steady output decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. By al-Husseini’s calculations, approximately 116 billion barrels of oil have been produced by Saudi Arabia, meaning only 64 billion barrels remain before reaching this crucial point of inflection. At 12 million b/d production, this inflection point will arrive in 14 years.”

“While al-Husseini believes that Saudi officials overstate capabilities in the interest of spurring foreign investment, he is also critical of international expectations. He stated that the IEA’s expectation that Saudi Arabia and the Middle East will lead the market in reaching global output levels of over 100 million barrels/day is unrealistic, and it is incumbent upon political leaders to begin understanding and preparing for this “inconvenient truth.””

According to the cable al-Husseini describes himself as optimistic about the future outlook of energy even if he contradicts the official Aramco line. It’s clear that al-Husseini probably is one of the people in the world with the best insight concerning the future of oil production in Saudi Arabia based both on the man’s education, experience and firsthand knowledge from leading the Exploration and Production unit in Aramco.

The World’s Largest Oil Fields
The number of producing oil fields 2007 was around 70.000; in total these fields produced around 70 million barrels oil per day (WEO 2008: 225-226). As previously noted the IEA expects that production from fields that was producing oil in 2010 is expected to drop from 65 mb/d to 22 mb/d in 2035. But the IEA still expects new finding to replace this lost production. This raises the question about what type of future findings we can expect. So let’s take a look at the World’s Largest Oil Fields.

The Top 10 Producing Oil Fields in the World 2007
1.) Ghawar 5,1mb/d
Ghawar In Saudi Arabia in undoubtedly the King of Kings. Ghawar was discovered in 1948 and has been producing enormous amount of oils ever since. Ghawar alone has historically produced somewhere between 55-65% of all oil coming from Saudi Arabia. The Fields Peaked in its production 1980 with a production of 5,58mb/d, the production was still at an amazing 5,1mb/d 2007.

2.) Cantarell 1,6mb/d
Cantarell in Mexico is the World’s Second most producing Oil Field. The Field was discovered in 1977, peaked in its production in 2003 with a production of 2,05mb/d a figure that had dropped to 1,6mb/d in 2007.

3.) Safaniyah 1,4mb/d
Safaniyah in Saudi Arabia was discovered in 1951. The field Peaked in its production 1998 with a production of 2,12mb/d, in 2007 the production has dropped to 1,4mb/d.

4.) Rumaila 1,25mb/d
Rumaila was discovered 1953 in Iraq. The field Peaked in its production in 1979 with a production 1,49 mb/d, in 2007 the production had dropped to 1,25mb/d.

5.) Greater Burgan 1,17mb/d
This oil fields in Kuwait was discovered in 1938, the production peaked in 1972 with a production of 2,415 mb/d a figure dropped to 1,17mb/d in 2007.

6.) Samotlor 0,903mb/d
This Russian Oil Field was discovered in 1960, it Peak in its production in 1980 with an enormous production of 3,435mb/d, a figure that had dropped sharply to 0,903mb/d in 2007.

7.) Akwaz 0,77mb/d
This Iranian Oil Field was discovered in 1958 and peaked in its production in 1977 with a production just over 1 million barrels and dropped to 0,77mb/d in 2007.

8.) Zakum 0,674mb/d
This oil field in Abu-Dhabiwas discovered in 1964, peaked in 1998 at 0,795mb/d and had dropped to 0,674mb/d in 2007.

9.) Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli 0,658mb/d
This oil field in Azerbaijan was discovered in 1985 and hadn’t peaked in yet in 2007 with a production of 0,658mb/d.

10.) Priobskoye 0,652mb/d
This Russian oil field was discovered in 1982 and hadn’t peaked yet in 2007 when it has a production of 0,652mb/d.

From these figures we can see several trends. The World’s Largest Oil Fields play a very important part for supplying the world’s energy demand. The Top Ten Fields produced 14,26 mb/d; around 20% of the World’s Total Oil Production. If the next ten fields were added the figure was around 25%. In total there was around 70.000 Oil Fields producing oil in 2007 and 20 of these fields produced a fifth of all the oil (WEO 2008: 225-226).

Another fact also stands out very clear; none of these fields has been discovered recently; the ones that was discovered the latest was discovered in 1982 and 1985. Only two of these fields hadn’t reached their Peak in production in 2007; the rest where on decline. During the summer of 2011 there were big headlines concerning an unusually big oil find outside the coast of Norway that is expected being able to produce up to 500-1200 million barrels of oil. Ghawar with its production of 5 million barrels of oil per day produces this amount of oil in 100-210 days. The trends of smaller and smaller findings are something often stressed by researchers within the Peak Oil movement; smaller and smaller fields of oil are being discovered even though the technological tool available to search for new fields constantly develops.

Peak Oil and Our Mental Models
If Peak Oil is truly here or not is not a question that I can answer. In this article I have lifted the trend of largest oil Fields in the World and classified information from WikiLeaks concerning the situation in Saudi Arabia. No matter what information that I present I almost always the same response; people simply agree or totally disregard the possibility of Peak Oil. One aspect that I would like to raise is mental models and mind-sets. This is one the major subjects that Richard Heuer lifts in the book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Heuer believes that people construct their own reality based on the information that they observe. We are influenced by many factors like cultural values, education and past experiences but also by factors like the role we are expected to fill and norms within organizations or communities (Heuer 1999: 4-5).

This is a critical aspect that is not lifted enough: We do not focus upon our own mental models. There was a time when most people believed that world was flat. Economical Growth and an increase in the standard of living has been the truth for a long period time. We expect things to get better and better, we expect that the standard of living will be higher and higher. This is one of our cultures most central ideas and a message that reach us every day from multiple sources. One things that Heuer lifts is that when a paradigm change, as the end of the cold war takes place the experts how knew the most about the subject is those how have the most to unlearn when it comes to adapting to a new reality (Heuer 1999: 5). Heuer also focus on the fact that when a mental form is created and the new information is assimilated into the existing model. We continue to use models that worked well in the past long after they have become outmoded (Heuer 1999: 8-11, 73).

Analysis
If the IEA forecast concerning the fields that were producing oil 2010 turns out to be correct the production from these fields will drop by 45,9mb/d until 2035. By the same period of time Natural Gas Liquids, Unconventional Oil and Bio Fuels is expected to increase from 15,6 mb/d to 32,9mb/d, an increase with 17,3 mb/d. This would mean that we still need to bring oil fields that can produce 28,6 mb/d online just to remain on same total production that we have today of liquid fuels (WEO 2011: 122-123).

I would like to focus on some critical aspects from this information
• The positive forecast depends on two critical components
1.) The Production of alternative fuels will double during this period of time
2.) New Oil Fields will be found and developed that will able to offset the drop in 45,9mb/d in production from existing Oil Fields.
• This is assumptions that are required for this analysis to be correct.
• The analysis made by the IEA focus on a scenario when Saudi Arabia will increase their production from 10mb/d in 2010 to 13,6mb/d in 2035.

So how do the classified information from WikiLeaks and the trend concerning the World’s biggest Oil Fields fit in this projection? The IEA expects the production in Saudi Arabia to go from 10mb/d per day in 2010 to 13,9 mb/d per day in 2035. As the diplomatic cables from 2007 released by WikiLeaks even al-Husseini, the former Executive Vice President for Exploration and Production at Aramco is skeptical towards this prognosis. It’s fully possible that al-Husseini is incorrect in the assessment; but the central role within Aramco and the man’s technical expertise is hard to deny.

From looking at the World Largest Oil Fields today it’s clear that the greatest findings have taken place several decades ago. New findings have taken place but none of them have the capacity of the top 20 Oil Fields producing Oil today. The Top 20 Oil Fields in the World produce around 25% of the World’s Oil; around 19,16 mb/d. If you compare this to the 45,9mb/d required to compensate for the fall from fields producing in 2010 up until 2025 it clear that we will either have to be very lucky in our explorations or find an enormous amount of small fields.

Bloggers and researchers often tend to present dramatic forecasts that get a lot of attention. Instead I would suggest that you do something else. No matter where you stand concerning the subject of Peak Oil I would suggest that you ask yourself what your mental-model of the situations is and what assumptions this model relies upon? What data challenges your assumptions and what data confirms your assumptions? From there I suggest that you make up your own mind.

Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The US Energy Information Administration - No Peak in World Oil Production in another 23 years
Peak Oil

The US Energy Information Administration – No Peak in World Oil Production in another 23 years

In the previous article I discussed the International Energy Agency reports World Energy Outlook. Peak Oil is a highly debated subject and a Peak in the Global Production of Oil may seem like a bizarre scenario to many people. We have had an enormous access to cheap energy for several generations now. For a long period of time the United States was the world’s leading producer of oil, this changed however in 1972 when the US reached its Peak with a production around 9,5 million barrels per day (mb/d), today the US production of Oil is only around 5,5 mb/d. Today the US imports around 10 mb/d making it the world number one oil importer.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also provides statistical information and forecasts just like IEA. In the most recent report International Energy Outlook 2011 the EIA provides a completely different analysis than IEA. Like you might remember from the other article IEA believed that the world production of crude oil would continue to increase by around 1% per year until 2030 up until the World Energy Outlook 2010 report. In the 2010 report the IEA assessed that the world production of crude oil peak in 2006. This was a sharp turn compared to the previous reports.

The 2011 report provides by the EIA provides a completely different forecast. The EIA believes that the World Production of Crude Oil will continue to increase by 0,7% per year up until 2035. In short: According to the IEA the Peak in Crude Production is at least 23 years away. In addition to this the EIA also believes that oil sands will increase from 1,8 to 4,8 mb/d in 2035, Coal to Liquids from 0,2 to 1,7 mb/d, Gas to Liquid from 0,1 to 0,3 mb/d, Shale oil from 0,0 to 0,1 mb/d and bio fuels from 1,5 to 4,7 mb/d (IEO 2011: 28).

The EIA discussion also lacks a serious discussion about the Oil Reserves in the Middle East. This is a subject that was raised by Matthew Simmons in the book “Twilight in the Desert”.

Simmons lifts several key notions:
• The production in Saudi Arabia is concentrated around a few giant fields; Ghawar alone produces somewhere between 55-65% of the total Oil Production in Saudi Arabia.
• The fields have been producing oil for several decades
• The Proven Reserves increased to 150 billion barrels in 1979 when the management of Aramco was taken over by nationals. The number continue to rise to 160 billion barrels in 1982 and in 1988 another 100 billion barrels was added to the proven reserves leaving Saudi Arabia with the largest oil reserves in the world; over 260 billion barrels.
• Since 1988 over 47 billion barrels has been produced just until 2005 and still the proven reserves of 260 billion barrels has not reduced.

This is also a subject that was highlighted after the WikiLeaks release of US Embassy cables when report that suggested that the reserves in Saudi Arabia may in fact be 40% less than stated was released. None of these issues is discussed by the EIA.

Analysis
The future projections Energy has been very positive for a long period of time. The IEA started to change their projections in 2010, the EIA still holds on to the same type of prognosis that the IEA presented in 2009. It’s very hard to know if the IEA or EIA got it right; only time can tell. But it’s important to understand that the analysis that the US politics is based upon relies on a much more positive outlook. If it turns out that EIA is wrong in their analysis it means that the policies and planning implemented by the US has been based upon incorrect information.

I have yet not seen any political party that has lifted Peak Oil as a potential problem. Peak Oil is a concept that challenges the expectation of growth, something that we have been used to for a very long period of time. It’s my guess that we are now starting to go from a period with a steady economical growth to period where the old truths may no longer be valid. We are now seeing a process when political and economical institutions are trying to make sense of what is going on. I do not believe that the world will run out of fossil fuels, but I do believe it’s possible that the access to these fuels may start to decrease instead of increasing. This presents a problem for all the economical and political institutions of the world since it means that they will have to adapt to a reality that does not corresponds to the situation that they have encountered in the past.

Other Articles
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cable and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil

Is Peak Oil Already Here?

The International Energy Agency is the leading international agency when it comes to forecasting the world’s future energy use. In the report World Energy Outlook the international institution presents its forecast. The first report in this series was presented in 1994. From 1994 IEA has presented a very positive outlook for future energy. In the first report from 1994 the World Oil production was expected on increase to 94 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010. From 2002 to 2009 World Energy Outlook the forecast for oil production was expected to increase to 120-105 mb/d. In the 2008 World Energy Outlook Oil Production was expected to increase with 1% per year up until 2030. In 2010 a new analysis was presented. In this report the Peak in world production of oil was believed to have taken place in 2008 with a World Production of around 70 million barrels per day. This report suggests that Peak Oil may in fact already have taken place. If this analysis is correct it means that instead of having 20 years of additional growth in Oil Production ahead of us we may now be on the other end of Hubberts Peak. Peak Oil has been a highly debated subject for a long period of time. The future forecasts have often been described as very positive with future growth in production and reserves. Many of the researchers within the Peak Oil Movement have provided a more problematic analysis.

Oil is one of the most important commodities in today’s world. It has very energy content and is crucial for many areas like transportation, agriculture and the petrochemical industry. Research has also shown that there is a strong correlation between economical development and the access to cheap energy.

Analysis
Peak Oil is only one of many complex problems that the world may face. If we have truly reached the Peak in world oil production or not can only history show. There are a number of other problems that also interact; the world population has recently reached 7 billion people and is expected to reach 10 billion in 2050. At the same time we also have a demographical development in many rich countries with low birth rates that will produce a situation when few young will have to support and aging population. Man Made Global Warming is another trend that may also interact with these problems with more severe weather and increased water shortages in some part of the world.

It’s my guess that we may have reached or is starting to reach a point when many of the resources that our current way of life depends upon will start to decline. I do not think that we have reached this point for all natural resources but it’s possible that we have started to reach this point for some of them. If this is correct we may face a future when an increasing world population will have to make do with less and less resources and that this problem will get increasingly worse over time.

Our political and economical system is today very focused on short term profits and growth. Economical growth and increased average life span has increased for a very long period of time. This is all that our political and economical institutions know and it’s also something that is deeply rooted in all of us from the stories that’s being told throughout our societies.

During the last year we have seen a series of events around throughout the world like Arabian Spring, a severe economical crisis for some of the countries within the European Union and The Occupy Wall Street Movement. It’s my belief that these developments are symptoms at least partly related to other underlying factors like Peak Oil, The Depletion of Renewable and Non Renewable Resources, The Increasing World Population, The Demographical Development and Global Warming and that these factors may continue to put an increasing press on our political and economical system.

Other Articles
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cables and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
The US Energy Information Administration - No Peak in World Oil Production in another 23 years
Peak Oil

Things That You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil

Peak Oil just like the subject of Man-Made Global Warming is a very controversial subject that may give many a very pessimistic outlook on the future. In this post I will make some suggestions to what you can do in order to prepare for a world where the access to oil is not as high as we have gotten use to.


Personal Preparedness
1.) Learn About The Subject
If you don’t know anything about the subject get a overview of the subject. In order to get some basic understanding of the subject you can see a documentary like “Blind Spot” or “The End of Suburbia”. The videos from Crash Course by Chris Martensson or ASPO TV can also be a good place to get started.

2.) Get a Bike
A Bike is one of the most energy efficient ways to travel with muscle power. Many persons use their cars for short trips that might actually be faster to travel by bike. Using bikes does not only save money, it also increases your physical fitness and is good for your health.

3.) Get a Fuel Efficient Car
If you are dependent on a car to get around one way of reducing your vulnerability is to get a fuel efficient car. This way high fuel prices will have less of an impact on your personal situation. Other ways of reducing the cost of travel by car is to
• Always make sure that you have the right air pressure in you tiers
• Take an eco-driving course and learn how to drive as fuel efficient as possible
• Avoid driving at high speeds
• Car pool with other people if possible
• Do not drive more than necessary

4.) Your Home
If oil and energy prices would rise there are steps you can take to reduce the economical impact that it will have on you. If you live in a cold climate increasing the insulation of your home can reduce the amount of energy required to keep it warm. Many also have high indoor temperatures, lowering the temperature inside by just a few degrees can save much energy. Examples of other actions that you can take to conserve energy:
• Take short showers and avoid baths
• Get low energy light bulbs
• Turn of lights, your TV, computer and other appliances when you don’t use them.
• Remember to check the energy efficiency when you buy new electronics

5.) Food Consumption
If the oil prices would raise this might also increase the price of food. In many countries half of all food that is consumed gets thrown away today. If this applies to your personal situation this mean that you could basically be storing half of the food you are buying if you change your habits. In addition to this many in rich countries eat too many calories per day, not too few; overweight, heart disease and diabetes are much bigger problems than famine.

6.) Prioritize
Today much of the things that we consume are things that we might not actually need. Not too long ago it was common to pass on possessions like clothing, footwear, tools and other possessions from one generation to the next. When it comes to Crisis Preparedness it’s easy to get too focused on specific types of items. It is important that you balance your effort over multiple fields.
• When you buy something try to invest in quality items that will last over time
• Learn how to repair clothing and other items when they break
• Take care of your possessions; tools will last much longer if you use them with care.

7.) Start a Garden
For many Survivalist and Preppers the dream is to have a farm or retreat and be self sufficient. However, for most this will remain a dream, over half of the world population lives in cities and the number of people living in cities increase every year. If you live in a house and you can start a garden and grow some of the food that you eat on your own, you might not be able to be completely self sufficient. But you can produce some parts of what you need. Even people living in apartments can grow some of the food or spices that they need on their own, do what you can with what you got. You may not be able to be self sufficient, but you can most likely add some food or spices to your diet.

8.) Your Mindset
Peak Oil as an idea that stands in direct opposition against much of what we are taking for granted today. Many of the people in the world today have grown up during a period when a rise in the standard of living and an incredibly fast technological development has taken place. The idea of continued growth is deeply rotted in our minds, institutions, media and political parties. Many are not even aware of the concept of Peak Oil even if they know that fossil fuels are non renewable recourses. We still expect them to last forever.

The US already imports around half of the oil that’s being used every year today and domestic production is sinking every year and have been doing so since 1970 when the US Oil Production peaked. How would the American society look like if no imports were possible and only half of the amount of oil currently being used was available? How would it look if only a forth was available?

Accepting that this could become the case in maybe just a few decades or even less time is very hard to comprehend and imagine. We might find solutions so that the access to energy will remain high, but we might just simply have to adjust to a new situation. Changing ones perception and mindset is the most critical aspect in order to be able to make this transition.

In Your Community
9.) Watch a Documentary About The Subject With Your Friends or Family.
"Home” or The National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond are two suggestions, the first can be accessed for free on YouTube. Some will likely refuse the possibility, but some will learn and understand the concept.

10.) Get Involved
Get engaged in the Transition Network or some other type of organization that work with these types of issues. There are people that are working with Peak Oil and to promote Sustainability – You could be one of them.

11.) Put Pressure On Your Politicians
Many may expect that politicians and other may have a much better understand of this type of issues when they in many cases have no idea about this type of potential problems. Put pressure on your politicians and informing them about the potential problem. Are they aware about this type of problems and what are they doing about it? There are cities and communities that are actively working to reduce their dependency on oil and that do prepare for the possible consequences of Peak Oil. Your City or Community could become one of them.

Summary
Peak Oil is a subject that easily can get the most optimistic person pessimistic. The knowledge about the subject is still not very widespread even if the attention surrounding the subject has been increased the last years. Many within the Peak Oil Movement like Michael Ruppert the founder of CollapseNet are making very negative forecasts and believe that a Collapse is only a few months away. The message is that disaster is imminent.

Personally I have no idea what tomorrow will bring, so don’t see any point in making predictions. The worst could happen, there are no guarantees. But it is also possible that solutions can be found. Peak Oil is a Man-Made problem, we have created the problem and it is my belief that we can overcome it. If we can spread knowledge about the problem and change our ways we can at a minimum reduce the impact that Peak Oil might have both for our societies and for us as individuals. What happens tomorrow is not written, it’s up to us to decide how it will play out.

Other Articles:
Peak Oil
The Limits To Growth

It’s Not Over Till It’s Over

The World is Coming to an End. Things are getting darker and darker every day and soon something is going to happen. It will be swift and it will be hard. This is the basic story presented by most people in the Survivalist and Prepper movement. Everyone that is involved in the movement see this type of threads and post about all the time. Predictions made about specific dates, events and forecast. It’s happening soon – It is time to step up your efforts before it’s too late.

In this article I will challenges some of the perceptions within the movement and discuss what we can do broaden our perspectives. It will take you around two hours to look through the material presented in this article but it will most likely increase your understanding of the world and give you some new perspectives.

The Survivalist Narrative
Like I wrote before the story that is most often presented within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement is the story of the Sudden collapse. The World As We Know It will fall apart basically over night and only the well prepared or lucky will make it through. This is the scenario presented in two of the most popular fictional books often recommended; “Patriots” by James Wesley Rawles and “One Second After” by William R Forstchen. In the first book the US economy breaks down, violence, collapse and a foreign invasion follows. In the second book the US gets hit by a High Altitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP) that takes out all modern electronics from computer, to cell phones, modern cars and the electrical grid resulting in the death of a majority of the US population and a following invasion.

Our Perception of the World and Cognitive Bias
Richard Heuer is Psychologist that used to work for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In the book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Heuer discuss many of the challenges the people working within the Intelligence Community face and why the often make incorrect analysis. One of the things that affect people the most is that we see what we expect to see and that different situations also affect how we perceive the world. During nighttime people are more likely to hear foot steps behind them when walking home compared to during daytime. Another critical aspect identified by Heuer is that when we have created mindset about something it resists change, no matter if there is strong evidence that suggests otherwise, new information that does not fit our first impression is changed so that it fits the original analysis or disregarded. This is something that every person does even if it is not a conscious process.

Two Stories about The World
A Good Story
So how does one change an incorrect assumption about the world? This is not an easy task. One method that can be used is to research facts, if the fact does not support our perception we might simply be incorrect. But to collect and display statistics in a way that makes it possible to understand and put in relation to other facts is not easy.

One person that has done is Hans Rosling. Rosling is a professor in public health and have been working as a doctor in countries that does not have many of the resources that hospitals in rich countries have. Rosling have the help of other created a graphical interface that allows statically information to be used to show the change within different countries over time when it comes to field like life expectancy, income, fertility rate and child mortality. This may not sound very interesting at first but I suggest that check out the video "New Insights on Povery". Its 20 min long, it will blow your mind and shake the perspective that you have of the world. Most people may assume that politicians and other top people within the business world has a good understanding of the world around them, but many of the leading people in the world has approached Rosling after he’s talks and said that they had no idea about facts that he just showed them.

A Troubling Story
If you have watched the video with Rosling you might be in quite a good mood. In 2009 the French filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand made one of the most troubling movies about the contemporary world. In the movie “Home” multiple questions like the Population Explosion, Peak Oil, The Depletion of Non Renewable Resources and Environmental Destruction is discussed. The movie was not made to generate profit and can be seen by anyone for free on YouTube. This is a movie that I really recommend for everyone.

"Home" is not a unique movie, many similar productions have been made the last years like the National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond, “Blind Spot” and “The End Of Suburbia” just to name a few. The stories are not identical but the message that they present are very similar; The world is facing an unprecedented crisis and we are not even aware of what’s coming.

So Where Does These Two Stories Leave Us?
After seeing these two videos you have been presented with two versions of the world both based upon facts. They are radically different, so is does any of these two perspectives present a correct perspective of the world today? My answer would be that both perspectives are correct. Both stories are grounded in fact. The message of the two perspectives are almost the exact opposite from the other and this is a good example of why it is so difficult to understand the complexity of the world even if one has some of the facts available.

What Should You Take With You From This Article?
So what would I like the reader to take with them from this article? First of all that the world is not only a set of facts, how we perceive these facts shapes our perception of the world. As Preppers and Survivalist the stories that we are told within the movement makes it easy to disregard information that does not support these stories. Many also take the information presented when a major crisis occurs as a sign that the “Big One” is here. This is something that takes place every time a new threat is presented, no matter if it is the swine flu, an economic crisis or most recently the events surrounding the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan. Positive information is disregarded and negative information reinforced by many.

Most people that are not Survivalist and Preppers on the other hand often totally disregards information suggesting that major disasters or accidents may occur no matter what information that is presented to them. This can make it a very frustrating process discussing crisis preparedness, prepping or survivalism with anyone that does not share this perspective since the two people do not share the same perception of the world and will not easily change this perception no matter what facts they are shown.

So why did I write this article? I share many of the concerns that the can be found within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement, but I believe that it is important to always look at the entire picture and not just look for information that supports the conclusions that one has already made. An analysis based upon only positive or negative information will not be as accurate analysis than an analysis that also incorporates contradicting information. The other aspect is hope. Many discuss potential coming problems like they have already happened, like there is no possibility that we can overcome the problems that we face. People that give up on hope in a survival situation often die as a result. With skills, health, knowledge and the will to survive people have made it through situations that have been more or less hopeless. I believe that it is critical that one train too not only see the bad in every situations but also the positive sides and possibilities presented. This can also allow one to find solutions for problems before they manifest, instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to manifest.

Crash Course

I would like to recommend the series of videos made by Chris Martenson called “Crash Course”. These videos are 3 hours and 20 minutes long in total and can be seen for free on Martensons Homepage. The videos describes potential future problem within several fields like the Economical and Financial Situation, Peak Oil, Energy and Population Growth.

Martensons videos are not as spectacular as the movie “Collapse” by Michael Ruppert. The theme of videos also resembles the National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond. The videos approach the subject from a clear and analytical perspective and is a good resource for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject. Martenson has also published a book with the name “The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future of Our Economy, Energy and the Environment".

Crash Course - Chapter 1

ASPO TV

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.

The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"

The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"

The Limits to Growth

More and more scientists have started to suggest that the human civilization uses natural recourses in way that will not be sustainable in a long term perspective. These issues have also gotten more and more attention in the media with movies like “Home”, “Blind Spot” and the National Geographic documentary “Collapse” based on the book by Jared Diamond. This post is an attempt to introduce the concept of “The Limits To Growth”, what the theory is and on what arguments and assumptions it is based.

The Limits to Growth
Even if these issues only lately have started to get more wide spread attention some scientists have been talking about these issues for a long period of time. One of the most criticized and famous reports of all about sustainable development is the book/report ”The Limits to Growth”. The report was written by a number of scientists; Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William W Behrens in the beginning of the 1970s. The report was commissioned by the think tank “The Club of Rome”.

The report starts with discussing the problems of perception for most people, most people are totally focused on their own personal lives, their own work, their own family and what they will be doing the next couple of days. From this perspective many people have a hard time taking the time to get to know what is happening in national or even global perspective. It’s even harder to see how changes will occur on a global scale in a distant future.

Exponential Growth
The report is an attempt to describe our world and its complexity and how different factors correlate with each other through System Dynamics. One of the central parts of the report is exponential growth. Linear growth means that something increases step by step like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Exponential growth mean that something increase exponentially. One famous examples is the Persian legend about the creator of the chess board how wanted one grain for the first square of the board, two on the second, four on the forth, eight on the fifth etc for his creation from the Prince that ordered it. On the tenth square the number would be 512, on the fifteenth 16384, and more than one million grains on the 21st square of the board. By the 64th square of the board the number of grain would be larger than the number of grain that the Prince owned. Exponential growth can quickly create enormous increases, something that can be seen in for example nature when cell samples increase in the same way until they consume all resources in laboratory experiments. If something increase with 0,1 % every year the doubling time would be 700 years, If something increases with 1% the doubling time would be 70 years, 4% mean 18 years, 7% ten years, 10% seven years and so on.

Limitation in the natural world
The base of the theory is that the world only has a certain number of non renewable resources and that if the human population continue to grow in an exponential way the human civilization will be unable to sustain the population.

The scientist also fear that this can cause an overshoot. An overshoot is a term from biology that refers to a situation when for example a species rapidly increase through exponential growth over the carrying capacity of the environment, causing the population to collapse. The theory is that the world only has a number of non renewable resources that has been accumulated during a long period of time like topsoil, ground water, forests, fossil fuels and other recourses that allow the human population to increase beyond the limits of what that is sustainable in long term perspective. So without these non renewable resources the planet will not have the carrying capacity to support the world population.

Computer models
The scientist has then used computer simulation to simulate different scenarios from the data that was available when the report was made. Some of the predictions have been very precise like the population increase in the world that has gone from 3,6 billion in 1972 when the report was written to the almost 6,8 billion people that the world has today 40 years later. The computer models were created with assistance from researchers working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Perspectives on Technology
The report also discuss Positive and Negative views on technology and what possibilities that future technology will present for solving problems with food, energy, pollution and other issues. I believe that this view can seen clearly today where some researchers believe that continued global exponential growth can cause a collapse and other how believe that technology will find solutions for every problem.

Prospects for the future
The researchers of the book also discuss the possibility of changing the system from the system that we had towards a more sustainable system. They believe that gradual change is desired but that’s it not likely that governments will take actions to ensure a sustainable development. This was written in 1972. The researchers also conclude that the longer humanity wait, the less options there will be to change the system. Another conclusion is that sooner or later there will be a change. The question is only if it will be naturally imposed by reaching the limitations to growth. In this case all we have to do is to just wait and see what happens. From this perspective taking no action is making a choice. Every day of continued exponential growth brings the world closer to the ultimate limit of growth. The solution suggested is to find a State of Equilibrium where humanity can live on the earth finding sustainable solutions without exponential growth.

Summary
The Limits of Growth suggest that if the human society continues to grow at an exponential rate the human race will sooner or later deplete the non renewable resources that it depends on causing an overshoot resulting in a situation whne the human population no longer can be sustained. There has also been two updates to the book, one 20 years after the first book was first published in 1992; “Beyond The Limits: Global Collapse or Sustainable Development” and another update 30 years later ;“The Limits On Growth the 30 years update”. The original 1972 report was written during the cold war and whole different time than the one we live in today, but the theory presented is very similar to theories presented by contemporary scientists and writers.

New additions
Many researchers view the world from a similar perspective, two new examples are Joseph Tainter, author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies” and Jared Diamond author of “Collapse: How Societies Choose To Succeed Or Fail”. Both Diamond and Tainter has done research on past human societies that have failed or collapsed and directly and indirectly support the theory that human societies often have depleted the resources and destroyed the environment on which they depend, sometimes with disastrous consequences like the case of the Eastern Islands. The Peak Oil Movement can also be viewed from a similar perspective even if it’s mainly focused on the depletion of fossil fuels and the consequences of this. Partly this concept has also been adapted by other writers like Michael Ruppert and Dmitry Orlov.

Analysis
The Theory of the Limits of Growth raises some serious question about how human societies work and the future for the human civilization project. The theory is also in sharp contradiction with current political ideologies that all favor and speak of growth, no matter if they present a perspective that’s from the left / right, conservative or liberal, socialist / capitalistic or even a green perspective. Exponential growth has been the truth for the human civilization since the beginning of the industrialized revolution and is something that is deeply rooted in our minds and ideologies. This produces an enormous ideological difference between those how believe that growth has limits and those how believe that there is basically no limits to growth, a view shared by many within the economic community.

It’s my personal belief that today’s economical system is largely focused on short term profits. The focus of this system is not what will happen in ten or twenty years, but what happens with the profits and budget this year. This short term perspective is profitable for many; states, individuals and companies but may prove to be a bad lens in order to identify long terms threats. In short: We are too focused on the present to think about the future. Exponential growth has been a truth for a long time, why would anyone expect that’s this will not be the case in the future?

Personally I do that there are limits to growth and that the earth can’t sustain an unlimited amount of people. When this point will be reached and exactly what consequences this will have is hard to say. Some researchers say that we may already be there, others that it may take place within decades or hundreds of years. So what can one expect if this scenario would come true? One obvious factor is that economic growth will slow down and eventually start to decline on a regional or global level. Starvation and Famine will start to increase and the people suffering for malnourishment will start to increase. The access to other commodities like oil, land, fresh water, energy and metals will become more scares when more people will have to share fewer resources. It’s also possible that new solutions may solve problems with energy and other issues, if this will happen can only time tell.

Survival and Preparedness
If the theory of “The Limits to Growth” would become a reality the world as we know will change in drastic ways. One can only speculate how the human societies will manage such a situation, but my guess is that politicians and others will have a hard time identifying the reasons for why this decline of growth takes place and that there will be major ideological clashes between different groups. This will mean that we would have to redefine the way we perceive the world.

So how does one prepare for such a scenario? The first part that would be hard to overcome is the perception that we will always have continued economical growth. The other part would be to find sustainable solution for issues like food production, water sources, energy and eventually learning how to make do with fewer resources.

There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.

Bugging Out Using Bikes

Walking by foot is a rather slow way too evacuate during an emergency. Bikes are one of the most energy efficient ways to travel by muscle power. An individual can normally travel many times the distance one could by foot per day using a bike. Another major advantage is that equipment can be loaded either directly to the bike using special bags or be drawn behind the bike on a trailer, this mean that much more equipment can be brought than would be possible if an individual would have to carry the same amount of equipment. There are many different models of bikes specialized for different tasks like being used in the city or off-road, find a bike that suits your specific needs. There are also bikes thats especially designed to carry heavy loads like the Transport from Trek. If you are on a budget it can be worth checking out the second hand market.

A bike is faster than walking but is normally not as fast as motor vehicle. But it can be an interesting alternative for someone with a low budget or can be brought along on a motor vehicle by using a bike rack.

Bike Trailers
Bike trailers is an excellent way to bring equipment along since it let you remove the weight from your back make the ride more comfortable and better balanced. There are a number of different companies that makes trailers for bike; two of the companies are Croozer and BOB. There are also special trailers for transporting children and pets. There are also custom trailers that’s up to eight feet long and take up to 300 pounds of load from Bikes at Work, like the Model 96A.

Bags for Bikes
There are a number of companies that makes bags that are specially designed for being used on a bike. The bags can be mounted at the front wheel, at the back wheel, under the saddle or other positions. Vaude, Arkel, Lone Peak and Ortlieb are some example of companies that has a number of different models. You can also improvise and use other bags or containers; the important part is that you distribute the weight equally around the bike so that it’s as balanced as possible. BOBLBEE makes backpacks that are especially designed for using while using bikes, motor cycles and other sports.


Bike Light
A bike light is important for many reasons, it makes it easier for other too se you when you travel by night and it also allows you to see the ground ahead of you. There are many companies that makes special bike lights, but many of the lights are mostly designed to give enough light so that others can see you, don’t to give you are clear view of what’s in front of you. If you want a more powerful light you can get a high power flashlight from Fenix, Surefire, 4Sevens or other companies and use a special adapter to attach it to the handles of your bike. A headlight can also be a good addition since the light will follow your head when you look around. Having a small red light in pointed to the rear of the bike allows other to know that the see the back of work bike in darkness.

Special Equipment for Repairs and Maintenance
For longer bike tours it’s good if you have some basic tools that allow you to fix some basic problems. A flat tire is one of the typical problems you might encounter and can be quite easily fixed with a puncture repair kit and an air pump. Spare inner tubes and tires to bikes is also relatively cheap to store. For most bikes Allen Keys is needed for repairs, fixed keys with t-handles are normally the easiest to work with, but there are also more compact tools with Allen keys especially designed for bike repairs that can be useful when traveling. If you have a car a bike rack is a useful addition in order to make it easier to transport your bike.

Equipment in addition to your Bug Out Bag
[ ] Puncture Repair Kit
[ ] Pump
[ ] Spare Valve
[ ] Adjustable Wrench or Barbell Spanner
[ ] Screwdriver and Allen Keys
[ ] Helmet
[ ] Multi-Tool
[ ] Lock

Wenger has a special Swiss Army Knife, the Wenger Biker 37 that’s especially designed to be used as a tool for repairing bikes. A multi-tool can also be a useful tool for fixing common problems.

A roadmap/city map and compass can be for finding your way, there also GPS units that especially designed for using while biking like the Garmin 705 HR.

Safety
One of the easiest ways of preventing serious injury when biking is wearing a helmet. There are many different models on the market; personally I like the ones from ProTec and BELL. Other ways of minimizing the risk of injury is to keep up the maintenance; check the breaks, tires and other details regularly. Stay alert and avoid using listening to music and talking on your cell phone while travelling in traffic, this can both be a distraction and make it hard for you to hear other sounds and warnings.

Locks
One of the major problems with having a bike, especially in cities is the risk of getting the bike stolen. A good lock can minimize the risk of getting the bike stolen, but there are no lock that can’t be broken with the right tools and time. The location where you store your bike is also important, try not to store the bike in a secluded location. Solid steel U-locks are normally safer than the thinner models of locks that use wired or chains.

Every Day Life
Biking is one of the cheapest and fastest ways to get around using muscle power, it is also an excellent way to get physical exercise. With a bike trailer and good stamina it’s fully possible to travel to work and do most activities like errands to the supermarket without a car. In some cases it can even save time compared to driving a car or taking the bus. Biking also has a large economical advantage compared to driving car since it does to consume any fuel, accept the calories you burn riding the bike. The cost for buying a bike, maintenance and new tiers are also very low compared to owning a car. For many people transportation is one of the highest economical costs in their lives today and in scenarios like Peak Oil or an Oil Embargo prices for transportation can rise dramatically. Making a life style change going from car dependency towards using a bike does not only have economical advantages but also advantages for your health and fitness.

Advantages
• Much faster than traveling by foot
• More equipment can be brought compared to travel by foot.
• It can be possible to navigate through traffic jams because of the bikes smaller size compared to cars and other vehicles.
• A much cheaper solution than a car.
• Great form of exercise.
• Requires no fuel.

Disadvantages
• Extreme terrain is very hard to travel through using a heavily loaded bike; roads are the best mean off travel.
• It’s hard to bike through snow during winter conditions.
• It can be dangerous to travel at highways due to other forms of traffic.
• Normally much slower than a motor vehicle.

• The storage capacity even with a bike trailer and bags are often significantly lower than that of a car or truck.

Summary
A bike gives the possibility to travel much longer distances in a shorter duration of time compared to what’s possible by foot, this can be extremely important in scenarios when evacuation is necessary. If you use your bike on an everyday basis and increase your stamina even longer distances can be traveled. With bike bags and a backpack you can bring more equipment than you can carry by foot. With special bike trailers in combination with bike bags it’s possible to bring several hundred of pounds of equipment in extreme cases.
This opens for options that would not normally be possible compared to evacuation by foot; especially if it’s a larger group equipped with bikes and trailers. Some examples of equipment that could be brought:
• Dutch Owens and other more stationary solution for cooking
• Large tents with wood stoves, Large Tarps, Heavy Duty Wool Blankets
• Food and Fuel for extended periods of time
• Heavy Tools like Shovels, Axes and Aaws, Fishing Gear, Rope etc

It’s fully possible to get a bike rack and bring a bike with you on your normal vehicle during an evacuation scenario and have the best of two worlds, one solution does not have to exclude the other.

News on the blog

After expending the subject of evacuation and bugging out I have started the process of reorganizing the posts so that the different aspects of survival and crisis preparedness fall into different categories. This is the first step in order to make them come together into a free Online Survival Guide. I will continue to write about different subjects and make some adjustments too some of the posts that’s already available.


There are a number of new interesting products on the market like the new headlamp from Fenix, the HP-20 that has a separate battery pack using 4 AA batteries. This is a concept that exists on other headlamp as well like the Silva L1 and Petzl Ultra. Having a separate battery pack is an advantage in cold weather conditions when it can be worn in a jacket or backpack in order to minimize the reduced performance of batteries when they get cold.


Fällkniven has released two new knives in a new series of knives with wooden handles, the SK-1, SK-3 and SK-6. Both knives are rather expensive compared to other knives like the WM-1, F1, S1, H1 and A1, however they can be an interesting alternative for collectors. Fällkniven has also released a new pen knife, the compact folding knife U-4 that has a weight of only 22 grams. Other products seem to be coming like a new series of kitchen knives and a new more unexpected product. A new type of steel is also being tested. An alternative with a much more attractive price is the new knife from Mora, The Bushcraft. The Bushcraft has a blade similar to Mora 2000 only with a more ergonomic handle. 


Peak Oil have gotten some attention in as well, in the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, World Energy Outlook 2010 the language has changed some. In Sweden a documentary about Peak Oil and other Issues aired tonight at a public television channel. The program can be viewed here. The documentary ”Blind Spot” is a new documentary with many leading researchers within the field of Peak Oil. Other researchers like Joseph Tainter, author of the book “The Collapse of Complex Societies” also participate.