Peak Oil just like the subject of Man-Made Global Warming is a very controversial subject that may give many a very pessimistic outlook on the future. In this post I will make some suggestions to what you can do in order to prepare for a world where the access to oil is not as high as we have gotten use to.
Personal Preparedness
1.) Learn About The Subject
If you don’t know anything about the subject get a overview of the subject. In order to get some basic understanding of the subject you can see a documentary like “Blind Spot” or “The End of Suburbia”. The videos from Crash Course by Chris Martensson or ASPO TV can also be a good place to get started.
2.) Get a Bike
A Bike is one of the most energy efficient ways to travel with muscle power. Many persons use their cars for short trips that might actually be faster to travel by bike. Using bikes does not only save money, it also increases your physical fitness and is good for your health.
3.) Get a Fuel Efficient Car
If you are dependent on a car to get around one way of reducing your vulnerability is to get a fuel efficient car. This way high fuel prices will have less of an impact on your personal situation. Other ways of reducing the cost of travel by car is to
• Always make sure that you have the right air pressure in you tiers
• Take an eco-driving course and learn how to drive as fuel efficient as possible
• Avoid driving at high speeds
• Car pool with other people if possible
• Do not drive more than necessary
4.) Your Home
If oil and energy prices would rise there are steps you can take to reduce the economical impact that it will have on you. If you live in a cold climate increasing the insulation of your home can reduce the amount of energy required to keep it warm. Many also have high indoor temperatures, lowering the temperature inside by just a few degrees can save much energy. Examples of other actions that you can take to conserve energy:
• Take short showers and avoid baths
• Get low energy light bulbs
• Turn of lights, your TV, computer and other appliances when you don’t use them.
• Remember to check the energy efficiency when you buy new electronics
5.) Food Consumption
If the oil prices would raise this might also increase the price of food. In many countries half of all food that is consumed gets thrown away today. If this applies to your personal situation this mean that you could basically be storing half of the food you are buying if you change your habits. In addition to this many in rich countries eat too many calories per day, not too few; overweight, heart disease and diabetes are much bigger problems than famine.
6.) Prioritize
Today much of the things that we consume are things that we might not actually need. Not too long ago it was common to pass on possessions like clothing, footwear, tools and other possessions from one generation to the next. When it comes to Crisis Preparedness it’s easy to get too focused on specific types of items. It is important that you balance your effort over multiple fields.
• When you buy something try to invest in quality items that will last over time
• Learn how to repair clothing and other items when they break
• Take care of your possessions; tools will last much longer if you use them with care.
7.) Start a Garden
For many Survivalist and Preppers the dream is to have a farm or retreat and be self sufficient. However, for most this will remain a dream, over half of the world population lives in cities and the number of people living in cities increase every year. If you live in a house and you can start a garden and grow some of the food that you eat on your own, you might not be able to be completely self sufficient. But you can produce some parts of what you need. Even people living in apartments can grow some of the food or spices that they need on their own, do what you can with what you got. You may not be able to be self sufficient, but you can most likely add some food or spices to your diet.
8.) Your Mindset
Peak Oil as an idea that stands in direct opposition against much of what we are taking for granted today. Many of the people in the world today have grown up during a period when a rise in the standard of living and an incredibly fast technological development has taken place. The idea of continued growth is deeply rotted in our minds, institutions, media and political parties. Many are not even aware of the concept of Peak Oil even if they know that fossil fuels are non renewable recourses. We still expect them to last forever.
The US already imports around half of the oil that’s being used every year today and domestic production is sinking every year and have been doing so since 1970 when the US Oil Production peaked. How would the American society look like if no imports were possible and only half of the amount of oil currently being used was available? How would it look if only a forth was available?
Accepting that this could become the case in maybe just a few decades or even less time is very hard to comprehend and imagine. We might find solutions so that the access to energy will remain high, but we might just simply have to adjust to a new situation. Changing ones perception and mindset is the most critical aspect in order to be able to make this transition.
In Your Community
9.) Watch a Documentary About The Subject With Your Friends or Family.
"Home” or The National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond are two suggestions, the first can be accessed for free on YouTube. Some will likely refuse the possibility, but some will learn and understand the concept.
10.) Get Involved
Get engaged in the Transition Network or some other type of organization that work with these types of issues. There are people that are working with Peak Oil and to promote Sustainability – You could be one of them.
11.) Put Pressure On Your Politicians
Many may expect that politicians and other may have a much better understand of this type of issues when they in many cases have no idea about this type of potential problems. Put pressure on your politicians and informing them about the potential problem. Are they aware about this type of problems and what are they doing about it? There are cities and communities that are actively working to reduce their dependency on oil and that do prepare for the possible consequences of Peak Oil. Your City or Community could become one of them.
Summary
Peak Oil is a subject that easily can get the most optimistic person pessimistic. The knowledge about the subject is still not very widespread even if the attention surrounding the subject has been increased the last years. Many within the Peak Oil Movement like Michael Ruppert the founder of CollapseNet are making very negative forecasts and believe that a Collapse is only a few months away. The message is that disaster is imminent.
Personally I have no idea what tomorrow will bring, so don’t see any point in making predictions. The worst could happen, there are no guarantees. But it is also possible that solutions can be found. Peak Oil is a Man-Made problem, we have created the problem and it is my belief that we can overcome it. If we can spread knowledge about the problem and change our ways we can at a minimum reduce the impact that Peak Oil might have both for our societies and for us as individuals. What happens tomorrow is not written, it’s up to us to decide how it will play out.
Other Articles:
Peak Oil
The Limits To Growth
Showing posts with label Blind Spot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blind Spot. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Monday, May 16, 2011
It’s Not Over Till It’s Over
The World is Coming to an End. Things are getting darker and darker every day and soon something is going to happen. It will be swift and it will be hard. This is the basic story presented by most people in the Survivalist and Prepper movement. Everyone that is involved in the movement see this type of threads and post about all the time. Predictions made about specific dates, events and forecast. It’s happening soon – It is time to step up your efforts before it’s too late.
In this article I will challenges some of the perceptions within the movement and discuss what we can do broaden our perspectives. It will take you around two hours to look through the material presented in this article but it will most likely increase your understanding of the world and give you some new perspectives.
The Survivalist Narrative
Like I wrote before the story that is most often presented within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement is the story of the Sudden collapse. The World As We Know It will fall apart basically over night and only the well prepared or lucky will make it through. This is the scenario presented in two of the most popular fictional books often recommended; “Patriots” by James Wesley Rawles and “One Second After” by William R Forstchen. In the first book the US economy breaks down, violence, collapse and a foreign invasion follows. In the second book the US gets hit by a High Altitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP) that takes out all modern electronics from computer, to cell phones, modern cars and the electrical grid resulting in the death of a majority of the US population and a following invasion.
Our Perception of the World and Cognitive Bias
Richard Heuer is Psychologist that used to work for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In the book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Heuer discuss many of the challenges the people working within the Intelligence Community face and why the often make incorrect analysis. One of the things that affect people the most is that we see what we expect to see and that different situations also affect how we perceive the world. During nighttime people are more likely to hear foot steps behind them when walking home compared to during daytime. Another critical aspect identified by Heuer is that when we have created mindset about something it resists change, no matter if there is strong evidence that suggests otherwise, new information that does not fit our first impression is changed so that it fits the original analysis or disregarded. This is something that every person does even if it is not a conscious process.
Two Stories about The World
A Good Story
So how does one change an incorrect assumption about the world? This is not an easy task. One method that can be used is to research facts, if the fact does not support our perception we might simply be incorrect. But to collect and display statistics in a way that makes it possible to understand and put in relation to other facts is not easy.
One person that has done is Hans Rosling. Rosling is a professor in public health and have been working as a doctor in countries that does not have many of the resources that hospitals in rich countries have. Rosling have the help of other created a graphical interface that allows statically information to be used to show the change within different countries over time when it comes to field like life expectancy, income, fertility rate and child mortality. This may not sound very interesting at first but I suggest that check out the video "New Insights on Povery". Its 20 min long, it will blow your mind and shake the perspective that you have of the world. Most people may assume that politicians and other top people within the business world has a good understanding of the world around them, but many of the leading people in the world has approached Rosling after he’s talks and said that they had no idea about facts that he just showed them.
A Troubling Story
If you have watched the video with Rosling you might be in quite a good mood. In 2009 the French filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand made one of the most troubling movies about the contemporary world. In the movie “Home” multiple questions like the Population Explosion, Peak Oil, The Depletion of Non Renewable Resources and Environmental Destruction is discussed. The movie was not made to generate profit and can be seen by anyone for free on YouTube. This is a movie that I really recommend for everyone.
"Home" is not a unique movie, many similar productions have been made the last years like the National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond, “Blind Spot” and “The End Of Suburbia” just to name a few. The stories are not identical but the message that they present are very similar; The world is facing an unprecedented crisis and we are not even aware of what’s coming.
So Where Does These Two Stories Leave Us?
After seeing these two videos you have been presented with two versions of the world both based upon facts. They are radically different, so is does any of these two perspectives present a correct perspective of the world today? My answer would be that both perspectives are correct. Both stories are grounded in fact. The message of the two perspectives are almost the exact opposite from the other and this is a good example of why it is so difficult to understand the complexity of the world even if one has some of the facts available.
What Should You Take With You From This Article?
So what would I like the reader to take with them from this article? First of all that the world is not only a set of facts, how we perceive these facts shapes our perception of the world. As Preppers and Survivalist the stories that we are told within the movement makes it easy to disregard information that does not support these stories. Many also take the information presented when a major crisis occurs as a sign that the “Big One” is here. This is something that takes place every time a new threat is presented, no matter if it is the swine flu, an economic crisis or most recently the events surrounding the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan. Positive information is disregarded and negative information reinforced by many.
Most people that are not Survivalist and Preppers on the other hand often totally disregards information suggesting that major disasters or accidents may occur no matter what information that is presented to them. This can make it a very frustrating process discussing crisis preparedness, prepping or survivalism with anyone that does not share this perspective since the two people do not share the same perception of the world and will not easily change this perception no matter what facts they are shown.
So why did I write this article? I share many of the concerns that the can be found within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement, but I believe that it is important to always look at the entire picture and not just look for information that supports the conclusions that one has already made. An analysis based upon only positive or negative information will not be as accurate analysis than an analysis that also incorporates contradicting information. The other aspect is hope. Many discuss potential coming problems like they have already happened, like there is no possibility that we can overcome the problems that we face. People that give up on hope in a survival situation often die as a result. With skills, health, knowledge and the will to survive people have made it through situations that have been more or less hopeless. I believe that it is critical that one train too not only see the bad in every situations but also the positive sides and possibilities presented. This can also allow one to find solutions for problems before they manifest, instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to manifest.
In this article I will challenges some of the perceptions within the movement and discuss what we can do broaden our perspectives. It will take you around two hours to look through the material presented in this article but it will most likely increase your understanding of the world and give you some new perspectives.
The Survivalist Narrative
Like I wrote before the story that is most often presented within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement is the story of the Sudden collapse. The World As We Know It will fall apart basically over night and only the well prepared or lucky will make it through. This is the scenario presented in two of the most popular fictional books often recommended; “Patriots” by James Wesley Rawles and “One Second After” by William R Forstchen. In the first book the US economy breaks down, violence, collapse and a foreign invasion follows. In the second book the US gets hit by a High Altitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP) that takes out all modern electronics from computer, to cell phones, modern cars and the electrical grid resulting in the death of a majority of the US population and a following invasion.
Our Perception of the World and Cognitive Bias
Richard Heuer is Psychologist that used to work for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In the book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Heuer discuss many of the challenges the people working within the Intelligence Community face and why the often make incorrect analysis. One of the things that affect people the most is that we see what we expect to see and that different situations also affect how we perceive the world. During nighttime people are more likely to hear foot steps behind them when walking home compared to during daytime. Another critical aspect identified by Heuer is that when we have created mindset about something it resists change, no matter if there is strong evidence that suggests otherwise, new information that does not fit our first impression is changed so that it fits the original analysis or disregarded. This is something that every person does even if it is not a conscious process.
Two Stories about The World
A Good Story
So how does one change an incorrect assumption about the world? This is not an easy task. One method that can be used is to research facts, if the fact does not support our perception we might simply be incorrect. But to collect and display statistics in a way that makes it possible to understand and put in relation to other facts is not easy.
One person that has done is Hans Rosling. Rosling is a professor in public health and have been working as a doctor in countries that does not have many of the resources that hospitals in rich countries have. Rosling have the help of other created a graphical interface that allows statically information to be used to show the change within different countries over time when it comes to field like life expectancy, income, fertility rate and child mortality. This may not sound very interesting at first but I suggest that check out the video "New Insights on Povery". Its 20 min long, it will blow your mind and shake the perspective that you have of the world. Most people may assume that politicians and other top people within the business world has a good understanding of the world around them, but many of the leading people in the world has approached Rosling after he’s talks and said that they had no idea about facts that he just showed them.
A Troubling Story
If you have watched the video with Rosling you might be in quite a good mood. In 2009 the French filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand made one of the most troubling movies about the contemporary world. In the movie “Home” multiple questions like the Population Explosion, Peak Oil, The Depletion of Non Renewable Resources and Environmental Destruction is discussed. The movie was not made to generate profit and can be seen by anyone for free on YouTube. This is a movie that I really recommend for everyone.
"Home" is not a unique movie, many similar productions have been made the last years like the National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond, “Blind Spot” and “The End Of Suburbia” just to name a few. The stories are not identical but the message that they present are very similar; The world is facing an unprecedented crisis and we are not even aware of what’s coming.
So Where Does These Two Stories Leave Us?
After seeing these two videos you have been presented with two versions of the world both based upon facts. They are radically different, so is does any of these two perspectives present a correct perspective of the world today? My answer would be that both perspectives are correct. Both stories are grounded in fact. The message of the two perspectives are almost the exact opposite from the other and this is a good example of why it is so difficult to understand the complexity of the world even if one has some of the facts available.
What Should You Take With You From This Article?
So what would I like the reader to take with them from this article? First of all that the world is not only a set of facts, how we perceive these facts shapes our perception of the world. As Preppers and Survivalist the stories that we are told within the movement makes it easy to disregard information that does not support these stories. Many also take the information presented when a major crisis occurs as a sign that the “Big One” is here. This is something that takes place every time a new threat is presented, no matter if it is the swine flu, an economic crisis or most recently the events surrounding the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan. Positive information is disregarded and negative information reinforced by many.
Most people that are not Survivalist and Preppers on the other hand often totally disregards information suggesting that major disasters or accidents may occur no matter what information that is presented to them. This can make it a very frustrating process discussing crisis preparedness, prepping or survivalism with anyone that does not share this perspective since the two people do not share the same perception of the world and will not easily change this perception no matter what facts they are shown.
So why did I write this article? I share many of the concerns that the can be found within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement, but I believe that it is important to always look at the entire picture and not just look for information that supports the conclusions that one has already made. An analysis based upon only positive or negative information will not be as accurate analysis than an analysis that also incorporates contradicting information. The other aspect is hope. Many discuss potential coming problems like they have already happened, like there is no possibility that we can overcome the problems that we face. People that give up on hope in a survival situation often die as a result. With skills, health, knowledge and the will to survive people have made it through situations that have been more or less hopeless. I believe that it is critical that one train too not only see the bad in every situations but also the positive sides and possibilities presented. This can also allow one to find solutions for problems before they manifest, instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to manifest.
Monday, November 15, 2010
News on the blog
After expending the subject of evacuation and bugging out I have started the process of reorganizing the posts so that the different aspects of survival and crisis preparedness fall into different categories. This is the first step in order to make them come together into a free Online Survival Guide. I will continue to write about different subjects and make some adjustments too some of the posts that’s already available.
There are a number of new interesting products on the market like the new headlamp from Fenix, the HP-20 that has a separate battery pack using 4 AA batteries. This is a concept that exists on other headlamp as well like the Silva L1 and Petzl Ultra. Having a separate battery pack is an advantage in cold weather conditions when it can be worn in a jacket or backpack in order to minimize the reduced performance of batteries when they get cold.
Fällkniven has released two new knives in a new series of knives with wooden handles, the SK-1, SK-3 and SK-6. Both knives are rather expensive compared to other knives like the WM-1, F1, S1, H1 and A1, however they can be an interesting alternative for collectors. Fällkniven has also released a new pen knife, the compact folding knife U-4 that has a weight of only 22 grams. Other products seem to be coming like a new series of kitchen knives and a new more unexpected product. A new type of steel is also being tested. An alternative with a much more attractive price is the new knife from Mora, The Bushcraft. The Bushcraft has a blade similar to Mora 2000 only with a more ergonomic handle.
Peak Oil have gotten some attention in as well, in the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, World Energy Outlook 2010 the language has changed some. In Sweden a documentary about Peak Oil and other Issues aired tonight at a public television channel. The program can be viewed here. The documentary ”Blind Spot” is a new documentary with many leading researchers within the field of Peak Oil. Other researchers like Joseph Tainter, author of the book “The Collapse of Complex Societies” also participate.
There are a number of new interesting products on the market like the new headlamp from Fenix, the HP-20 that has a separate battery pack using 4 AA batteries. This is a concept that exists on other headlamp as well like the Silva L1 and Petzl Ultra. Having a separate battery pack is an advantage in cold weather conditions when it can be worn in a jacket or backpack in order to minimize the reduced performance of batteries when they get cold.
Fällkniven has released two new knives in a new series of knives with wooden handles, the SK-1, SK-3 and SK-6. Both knives are rather expensive compared to other knives like the WM-1, F1, S1, H1 and A1, however they can be an interesting alternative for collectors. Fällkniven has also released a new pen knife, the compact folding knife U-4 that has a weight of only 22 grams. Other products seem to be coming like a new series of kitchen knives and a new more unexpected product. A new type of steel is also being tested. An alternative with a much more attractive price is the new knife from Mora, The Bushcraft. The Bushcraft has a blade similar to Mora 2000 only with a more ergonomic handle.
Peak Oil have gotten some attention in as well, in the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, World Energy Outlook 2010 the language has changed some. In Sweden a documentary about Peak Oil and other Issues aired tonight at a public television channel. The program can be viewed here. The documentary ”Blind Spot” is a new documentary with many leading researchers within the field of Peak Oil. Other researchers like Joseph Tainter, author of the book “The Collapse of Complex Societies” also participate.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Peak Oil
The current disaster in the Mexican Golf after the explosion that sunk the Oil platform Deepwater Horizon much attention has been focused on the security of deepwater offshore drilling. One subject that isn’t discussed that often is the access to oil and if the access to oil will become more scares.
The Term Peak Oil
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist born in 1903 that would later create the term “Peak Oil”. Hubbert got he’s degrees from the University of Chicago and would later work for Shell and USGS. He also worked as teacher at a number of different universities like MIT. In 1956 Hubbert presented the theory that US Oil Production would peak between 1966-1972 and start to decrease after this. Hubbert came to this theory by studying individual fields and how the production curved changed over time and adding them together. Hubbert’s estimates for the American oil production would later be proved right even if very few believed him when he first made he’s predictions.
Will There Be a Global Peak and When Will it Happen?
Many individual countries have reached their peak in oil production (peak oil) and are now in decline. Other countries than the US is Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Venezuela, Great Britain and around 40 more countries. The question many researchers ask is when the total world production will reach a peak and when the decline in World Oil Production will start. Estimates vary heavily, some researchers believe that the peak may have already been reached in 2005, others that it may happen during 2010, USGS estimates in a report from 2001 that it may take another 30 years and some Saudi experts believe that it may be 100 years before it happens.
Why is Oil so Important?
Oil originates from a period several million years ago and is basically vegetation of different sorts that have been compressed in the earth under very high pressure and temperatures. Other forms of fuels also resulted from this process like coal and natural gas. Fossil fuels are in other words solar energy that have been stored as a result of photosynthesis in combination with geological process a very long time ago. These resources are renewable, but the process takes millions of years so they are not renewable from a current human perspective. This makes the use of oil extremely energy efficient, the amount of energy one can get from taking advantage of these resources is extremely great. Oil is also easy to store and transport, it contains very much energy in relation to its weight.
Timeline
1910 A pressurized oil well in Lakeview Gusher, California starts leaking and would leak over 9 million barrels of oil over the next 18 months.
1944 During The Second World War Nazi Germany used coal to create oil in order to power their tanks and airplanes after their access to oil was reduced.
1970 The oil production in the United States peaks
1973 Saudi Arabia under its leader King Faisal imposes an Oil Embargo against the US and the Netherlands, the amount of oil that was withheld was relatively small but the consequences were big. The event caused the oil price the increase fourfold to just under 12 dollars and the price continued to rise even after the embargo was lifted. Canada Oil production also peaks in this year.
1974 Iran’s oil production peaks
1978 The Iranian Revolution takes place, after the revolution the oil production in Iran drops to around a third of its previous production and the oil prices increase rapidly.
1979 Nigeria’s oil production peaks
1979 A blowout in the Mexican oil well Ixtoc I cause around 3 million barrels of oil to leak into the Gulf of Mexico.
1982 OPEC countries stop reporting oil production on field to field basis. This is one of the major causes of insecurity since it’s very hard to estimate and predict the continued development without any data to see patterns in production for different oil fields.
1989 The oil tanker Exxon Valdez running aground outside of Alaska, spilling over 250.000 barrels of oil into the ocean.
1991 Iraq invades Kuwait War, during the response “Operation Desert Storm” Iraqi troops set fire to oil fields and tankers, many estimates of the size of the oil spill is over 10 million barrels.
1998 The oil production in Venezuela peaks
1999 The oil production in Great Britain and Qatar peaks
2000 The Oil production in Norway, Mexico and Colombia peaks
2002 Oil Production in India peaks
2005 Hurricane Katrina damage several offshore platforms.
2010 The Oil Rig “Deepwater Horizon” explodes after an accident in the Mexican Gulf. Several people died in the initial explosion and a large leak has occurred. How big the leak has been has been an debated issue, estimated has varied that 5.000 to over 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day could be leaking. Efforts have been initiated to stop and reduce the effects of the oil spill and the action from both the Obama administration and British Petroleum (BP) has been questioned.
The Saudi Perspective
Matthew Simmons, an energy investor banker has done some research on how the Oil production in Saudi Arabia have changed over time in he’s book “Twilight in the Desert”. Simmons starts at the beginning of Saudi Oil era and also goes into to detail about how political changes have taken place in country. Almost all of the major Saudi Oil fields were found in an early stage and the major Saudi Oil fields account for almost all of the Saudi Oil Production. Especially the Oil Field Ghawar has a special importance. Ghawar is the largest Oil field ever discovered and has been the sole producer for more than half of the Saudi Oil production. No other field has even come close the size and production of this field that produced over 5,5 million barrels per day at most. The second largest Oil field in the world, the Saudi offshore field Safaniya has only reached a capacity of just over 1,5 million barrels per day at most. Simmons also discuss the Saudi Oil production in relation to the American oil production that peaked in the 1970:s. In the beginning the Saudi Oil Production was ruled by the company the later was put under government control. The problem in Saudi Arabia also has other aspects; the country has enormously high birthrates, over 6 children per women in combination with a high standard of living and low child mortality rate, a combination that has resulted in a very big population increase. Water is also a big problem in Saudi Arabia; much of the water is sea-water and must be made into fresh water, a process that requires enormous amounts of energy retrieved from oil. Saudi Arabia has have a critical role in the world when an extra need for oil has taken place Saudi Arabia has produced the extra oil by putting hard pressure on their Oil Fields like during the Iranian revolution that resulted in an extremely low oil production for a few years and during the build up for Operation Desert Storm.
Simmons also shows the production rate for other giant fields outside of Saudi Arabia, and how the production rate has changed after they peaked, and suggest that it’s only natural for the Oil fields in Saudi to follow a similar pattern after they peak in production. One crucial aspect here is that almost all production in Saudi comes from a few fields and despite of intensive search for more Oil fields, non fields of similar size has been found and instead an enormous amount of time and energy has been used to increase the production in the oil fields. There is a big discussion between economist and geologist about how much oil there is in the world. Some geologist say that there is only a certain amount of oil available and money cant changed that while some economist say that when the oil price rises so does the amount of oil that available since the higher price makes it profitable to extract from locations where it was previously to expensive. Here Simmons states that technology and money invested had increased the amount of oil that Saudi has produced and continued to produce, experts from every field in combination with new technology like horizontal drilling and computer models have made an enormous difference when it comes to the amount of oil that can be retrieved from different fields. In other words Simmons combines the insights from both economists and geologists.
Movies
There have been a number of different movies made about Peak Oil and the possible consequences of this. “The end of Suburbia” was one of the first movies on this theme and it gathered a large number of different experts in the movie. “A Crude Awaking” and "Crude Impact" are two another movies that also present the same perspective.”Home” is a recent movie that focuses on both energy and environmental issues, its filmed from a aerial perspective and discusses different aspects of human development and the focuses on the need for sustainable development, this is a movie that can be seen for free online and I recommend everyone to see it. Both for the message but also because it’s proberly the best movie that has been produces on the subject. “Blind Spot” is a movie about Peak Oil with many of the leading researchers within the field that also incorporate some other researchers like Joseph Tainter; author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. Tainter explains he’s basic theory about diminishing marginal return and how this issue can be related to Peak Oil. Another movie that been produced on the same subject is the movie “Collapse” with Michael Ruppert based on Rupperts book “Confronting Collapse”. Ruppert has also written the newsletter and blog “From the Wilderness” and the book “Crossing the Rubicon”. Ruppert also incorporates financial aspects and conspiracy theories into the same theme and he’s perspective is even more negative than many of the other researchers in the same field. Ruppert has also recently launched the site “Collapse Network” where he offers advice for how to survive the coming collapse.
Researchers
There are many researchers that have written about Peak Oil. Matthew Simmons book “Twilight in the Desert” have already been mentioned as well as Michael Rupperts “Confronting Collapse” and “Crossing the Rubicon”. Examples of other researchers are Jeff Rubins “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller", Richard Heinbergs “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” and “Peak Everything”, Dale Allan Pfeiffer “Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture” and Kenneth S. Deffeyes “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak”.
There are also organizations committed to studying this phenomena like "The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas” also known as ASPO. ASPO have national organizations in many countries that you find on ASPO:s homepage. Some off the most famous researchers on ASPO is Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campell.
Alternatives
Many writers in the Peak Oil movement has also made research into the alternatives to fossil fuels like nuclear power, using coal to create liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen powered vehicles, fusion power and renewable sources of energy like water, wind, solar, bio fuels and geothermic energy.
Many critics put focus on modern agriculture and the need for both fertilizers and pest ices in order to create bio fuels and claim that in many cases bio fuels actually uses more energy from fossil fuels to make them today than the amount of energy that they make available.
Survival and Preparedness
Will there be a peak in the Oil Production? If this is the case, when will it happen and what will the consequences be? These are all very hard questions to answer. Different researchers make different assessments and the lack of data available makes it hard to make predictions and see clear trends. Personally I make the assessment that there will be a peak in global oil production sooner or later, if it haven’t already taken place. When this will happen and how fast the decline rate will be after the peak is very important. If the decline rate is very slow it will take many years before the lack of oil becomes apparent. Another very important factor is that one will only be able to know that that peak has taken place in retrospective, after it has actually happened. If the decline rate will be fast the problems will manifest sooner than if the decline rate is low. The slower the decline rate the more time there will be for finding alternative solutions and adjusting to a world with less oil available. How we will deal with this situation is the most critical aspect in my opinion. Peak Oil does not have to mean the end of the world, but it can create large problems if the decline rate will be very high and if we don’t find solutions for the problems that can be presented in form of transportation, agriculture and food production.
So how does one prepare for such an event? To start with no one really knows what the consequences will be. The basics needs for survival; shelter, water, fire, food and security etc will still be the same as today.
If you want to prepare for a scenario like this I suggest that you try to reducing your dependency on oil and energy. Do not use your car more than you have to if you have to and try to find a vehicle that don’t consume to much fuel per mile. If the cost per gallon/liter goes up it will be cheaper to drive a car if it doesn’t have an extremely high fuel consumption. Your location is also important, can you get to work by using your bike, take the bus or train? Taking the bike or walking does not only reduce costs, it also improves your fitness. Food may become more expensive if oil prices rise. In order to prepare for this I suggest that you try to have food storage and that you grow some of your own food if this is possible. More details for problems surrounding this you can find in the post “Food, Starvation and Famine – Crisis Preparedness and Survival”.
The economic system is also likely to experience some changes – if transportation costs go up there may become more profitable to grow food more locally and produce goods more locally as well. This can be seen as reverse “Globalization”. Many in the Peak Oil movement envision drastic changes like global famine, war over resources and even a sudden collapse that’s coming soon. I share much of the concern that many researchers have when it comes to areas like food production, transportation and similar issues. However I don’t believe this will result in a sudden collapse of society. However it may result in enormous problems if solutions for the problems aren’t found. The main problem as I see it is that the problem isn’t discussed that much, even if movies like “Home” and “Collapse” has increased awareness. Getting attention to the problem is only one side of the coin, the other important aspect is meaning making – what does this information mean? What will the consequences be, how can we solve the problem etc? I see a danger in that people like Ruppert mixes conspiracy theories with the peak oil problem; few will take the issue seriously if this is how the problem is presented. If you want to inform anyone about the potential problem I suggest that you recommend the movie “Home” since it’s both for free and range over a broad spectrum of problems without incorporating conspiracy theories into the problem.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Analysis
There is great deal of uncertainty when it comes to Peak Oil. It’s hard to estimate the sizes of the current reserves even if all countries produced public data on field to field production for each year. When countries don’t produce this data it’s even harder to make an estimate. And if there is a peak in oil production, how large will the decline rate be? How will economical factors affect this? What will happen to the oil price, will it increase or decrease? If it increases will it increase very fast like during other cases to a level many times over the price today or will it increase slowly? Insecurity also applies to the alternatives to fossil fuels, some believe that new alternatives will be provided by the market and other believe that alternatives like bio fuels and nuclear power may take more energy than they produce if the access to fossil fuels becomes scares.
Anything can happen, and what truly will take place only time can tell. This is a field that potentially can cause severe stress for individuals and societies in a short and long term perspective. But solutions could also be found that allows energy prices to remain low and access to energy to be great. Technological progress is very hard to predict, inventions like penicillin, the computer and many other inventions have radically changed our lives in ways that no one predicted before they were invented. However, awareness of the potential problem can help to reduce the impact of a negative development both for individuals, groups and societies if this would turn out to be the case.
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The United States Energy Information Administration - No Peak In World Oil Production In Another 23 Years
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cablle and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
The Term Peak Oil
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist born in 1903 that would later create the term “Peak Oil”. Hubbert got he’s degrees from the University of Chicago and would later work for Shell and USGS. He also worked as teacher at a number of different universities like MIT. In 1956 Hubbert presented the theory that US Oil Production would peak between 1966-1972 and start to decrease after this. Hubbert came to this theory by studying individual fields and how the production curved changed over time and adding them together. Hubbert’s estimates for the American oil production would later be proved right even if very few believed him when he first made he’s predictions.
Will There Be a Global Peak and When Will it Happen?
Many individual countries have reached their peak in oil production (peak oil) and are now in decline. Other countries than the US is Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Venezuela, Great Britain and around 40 more countries. The question many researchers ask is when the total world production will reach a peak and when the decline in World Oil Production will start. Estimates vary heavily, some researchers believe that the peak may have already been reached in 2005, others that it may happen during 2010, USGS estimates in a report from 2001 that it may take another 30 years and some Saudi experts believe that it may be 100 years before it happens.
Why is Oil so Important?
Oil originates from a period several million years ago and is basically vegetation of different sorts that have been compressed in the earth under very high pressure and temperatures. Other forms of fuels also resulted from this process like coal and natural gas. Fossil fuels are in other words solar energy that have been stored as a result of photosynthesis in combination with geological process a very long time ago. These resources are renewable, but the process takes millions of years so they are not renewable from a current human perspective. This makes the use of oil extremely energy efficient, the amount of energy one can get from taking advantage of these resources is extremely great. Oil is also easy to store and transport, it contains very much energy in relation to its weight.
Timeline
1910 A pressurized oil well in Lakeview Gusher, California starts leaking and would leak over 9 million barrels of oil over the next 18 months.
1944 During The Second World War Nazi Germany used coal to create oil in order to power their tanks and airplanes after their access to oil was reduced.
1970 The oil production in the United States peaks
1973 Saudi Arabia under its leader King Faisal imposes an Oil Embargo against the US and the Netherlands, the amount of oil that was withheld was relatively small but the consequences were big. The event caused the oil price the increase fourfold to just under 12 dollars and the price continued to rise even after the embargo was lifted. Canada Oil production also peaks in this year.
1974 Iran’s oil production peaks
1978 The Iranian Revolution takes place, after the revolution the oil production in Iran drops to around a third of its previous production and the oil prices increase rapidly.
1979 Nigeria’s oil production peaks
1979 A blowout in the Mexican oil well Ixtoc I cause around 3 million barrels of oil to leak into the Gulf of Mexico.
1982 OPEC countries stop reporting oil production on field to field basis. This is one of the major causes of insecurity since it’s very hard to estimate and predict the continued development without any data to see patterns in production for different oil fields.
1989 The oil tanker Exxon Valdez running aground outside of Alaska, spilling over 250.000 barrels of oil into the ocean.
1991 Iraq invades Kuwait War, during the response “Operation Desert Storm” Iraqi troops set fire to oil fields and tankers, many estimates of the size of the oil spill is over 10 million barrels.
1998 The oil production in Venezuela peaks
1999 The oil production in Great Britain and Qatar peaks
2000 The Oil production in Norway, Mexico and Colombia peaks
2002 Oil Production in India peaks
2005 Hurricane Katrina damage several offshore platforms.
2010 The Oil Rig “Deepwater Horizon” explodes after an accident in the Mexican Gulf. Several people died in the initial explosion and a large leak has occurred. How big the leak has been has been an debated issue, estimated has varied that 5.000 to over 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day could be leaking. Efforts have been initiated to stop and reduce the effects of the oil spill and the action from both the Obama administration and British Petroleum (BP) has been questioned.
The Saudi Perspective
Matthew Simmons, an energy investor banker has done some research on how the Oil production in Saudi Arabia have changed over time in he’s book “Twilight in the Desert”. Simmons starts at the beginning of Saudi Oil era and also goes into to detail about how political changes have taken place in country. Almost all of the major Saudi Oil fields were found in an early stage and the major Saudi Oil fields account for almost all of the Saudi Oil Production. Especially the Oil Field Ghawar has a special importance. Ghawar is the largest Oil field ever discovered and has been the sole producer for more than half of the Saudi Oil production. No other field has even come close the size and production of this field that produced over 5,5 million barrels per day at most. The second largest Oil field in the world, the Saudi offshore field Safaniya has only reached a capacity of just over 1,5 million barrels per day at most. Simmons also discuss the Saudi Oil production in relation to the American oil production that peaked in the 1970:s. In the beginning the Saudi Oil Production was ruled by the company the later was put under government control. The problem in Saudi Arabia also has other aspects; the country has enormously high birthrates, over 6 children per women in combination with a high standard of living and low child mortality rate, a combination that has resulted in a very big population increase. Water is also a big problem in Saudi Arabia; much of the water is sea-water and must be made into fresh water, a process that requires enormous amounts of energy retrieved from oil. Saudi Arabia has have a critical role in the world when an extra need for oil has taken place Saudi Arabia has produced the extra oil by putting hard pressure on their Oil Fields like during the Iranian revolution that resulted in an extremely low oil production for a few years and during the build up for Operation Desert Storm.
Simmons also shows the production rate for other giant fields outside of Saudi Arabia, and how the production rate has changed after they peaked, and suggest that it’s only natural for the Oil fields in Saudi to follow a similar pattern after they peak in production. One crucial aspect here is that almost all production in Saudi comes from a few fields and despite of intensive search for more Oil fields, non fields of similar size has been found and instead an enormous amount of time and energy has been used to increase the production in the oil fields. There is a big discussion between economist and geologist about how much oil there is in the world. Some geologist say that there is only a certain amount of oil available and money cant changed that while some economist say that when the oil price rises so does the amount of oil that available since the higher price makes it profitable to extract from locations where it was previously to expensive. Here Simmons states that technology and money invested had increased the amount of oil that Saudi has produced and continued to produce, experts from every field in combination with new technology like horizontal drilling and computer models have made an enormous difference when it comes to the amount of oil that can be retrieved from different fields. In other words Simmons combines the insights from both economists and geologists.
Movies
There have been a number of different movies made about Peak Oil and the possible consequences of this. “The end of Suburbia” was one of the first movies on this theme and it gathered a large number of different experts in the movie. “A Crude Awaking” and "Crude Impact" are two another movies that also present the same perspective.”Home” is a recent movie that focuses on both energy and environmental issues, its filmed from a aerial perspective and discusses different aspects of human development and the focuses on the need for sustainable development, this is a movie that can be seen for free online and I recommend everyone to see it. Both for the message but also because it’s proberly the best movie that has been produces on the subject. “Blind Spot” is a movie about Peak Oil with many of the leading researchers within the field that also incorporate some other researchers like Joseph Tainter; author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. Tainter explains he’s basic theory about diminishing marginal return and how this issue can be related to Peak Oil. Another movie that been produced on the same subject is the movie “Collapse” with Michael Ruppert based on Rupperts book “Confronting Collapse”. Ruppert has also written the newsletter and blog “From the Wilderness” and the book “Crossing the Rubicon”. Ruppert also incorporates financial aspects and conspiracy theories into the same theme and he’s perspective is even more negative than many of the other researchers in the same field. Ruppert has also recently launched the site “Collapse Network” where he offers advice for how to survive the coming collapse.
Researchers
There are many researchers that have written about Peak Oil. Matthew Simmons book “Twilight in the Desert” have already been mentioned as well as Michael Rupperts “Confronting Collapse” and “Crossing the Rubicon”. Examples of other researchers are Jeff Rubins “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller", Richard Heinbergs “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” and “Peak Everything”, Dale Allan Pfeiffer “Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture” and Kenneth S. Deffeyes “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak”.
There are also organizations committed to studying this phenomena like "The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas” also known as ASPO. ASPO have national organizations in many countries that you find on ASPO:s homepage. Some off the most famous researchers on ASPO is Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campell.
Alternatives
Many writers in the Peak Oil movement has also made research into the alternatives to fossil fuels like nuclear power, using coal to create liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen powered vehicles, fusion power and renewable sources of energy like water, wind, solar, bio fuels and geothermic energy.
Many critics put focus on modern agriculture and the need for both fertilizers and pest ices in order to create bio fuels and claim that in many cases bio fuels actually uses more energy from fossil fuels to make them today than the amount of energy that they make available.
Survival and Preparedness
Will there be a peak in the Oil Production? If this is the case, when will it happen and what will the consequences be? These are all very hard questions to answer. Different researchers make different assessments and the lack of data available makes it hard to make predictions and see clear trends. Personally I make the assessment that there will be a peak in global oil production sooner or later, if it haven’t already taken place. When this will happen and how fast the decline rate will be after the peak is very important. If the decline rate is very slow it will take many years before the lack of oil becomes apparent. Another very important factor is that one will only be able to know that that peak has taken place in retrospective, after it has actually happened. If the decline rate will be fast the problems will manifest sooner than if the decline rate is low. The slower the decline rate the more time there will be for finding alternative solutions and adjusting to a world with less oil available. How we will deal with this situation is the most critical aspect in my opinion. Peak Oil does not have to mean the end of the world, but it can create large problems if the decline rate will be very high and if we don’t find solutions for the problems that can be presented in form of transportation, agriculture and food production.
So how does one prepare for such an event? To start with no one really knows what the consequences will be. The basics needs for survival; shelter, water, fire, food and security etc will still be the same as today.
If you want to prepare for a scenario like this I suggest that you try to reducing your dependency on oil and energy. Do not use your car more than you have to if you have to and try to find a vehicle that don’t consume to much fuel per mile. If the cost per gallon/liter goes up it will be cheaper to drive a car if it doesn’t have an extremely high fuel consumption. Your location is also important, can you get to work by using your bike, take the bus or train? Taking the bike or walking does not only reduce costs, it also improves your fitness. Food may become more expensive if oil prices rise. In order to prepare for this I suggest that you try to have food storage and that you grow some of your own food if this is possible. More details for problems surrounding this you can find in the post “Food, Starvation and Famine – Crisis Preparedness and Survival”.
The economic system is also likely to experience some changes – if transportation costs go up there may become more profitable to grow food more locally and produce goods more locally as well. This can be seen as reverse “Globalization”. Many in the Peak Oil movement envision drastic changes like global famine, war over resources and even a sudden collapse that’s coming soon. I share much of the concern that many researchers have when it comes to areas like food production, transportation and similar issues. However I don’t believe this will result in a sudden collapse of society. However it may result in enormous problems if solutions for the problems aren’t found. The main problem as I see it is that the problem isn’t discussed that much, even if movies like “Home” and “Collapse” has increased awareness. Getting attention to the problem is only one side of the coin, the other important aspect is meaning making – what does this information mean? What will the consequences be, how can we solve the problem etc? I see a danger in that people like Ruppert mixes conspiracy theories with the peak oil problem; few will take the issue seriously if this is how the problem is presented. If you want to inform anyone about the potential problem I suggest that you recommend the movie “Home” since it’s both for free and range over a broad spectrum of problems without incorporating conspiracy theories into the problem.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Analysis
There is great deal of uncertainty when it comes to Peak Oil. It’s hard to estimate the sizes of the current reserves even if all countries produced public data on field to field production for each year. When countries don’t produce this data it’s even harder to make an estimate. And if there is a peak in oil production, how large will the decline rate be? How will economical factors affect this? What will happen to the oil price, will it increase or decrease? If it increases will it increase very fast like during other cases to a level many times over the price today or will it increase slowly? Insecurity also applies to the alternatives to fossil fuels, some believe that new alternatives will be provided by the market and other believe that alternatives like bio fuels and nuclear power may take more energy than they produce if the access to fossil fuels becomes scares.
Anything can happen, and what truly will take place only time can tell. This is a field that potentially can cause severe stress for individuals and societies in a short and long term perspective. But solutions could also be found that allows energy prices to remain low and access to energy to be great. Technological progress is very hard to predict, inventions like penicillin, the computer and many other inventions have radically changed our lives in ways that no one predicted before they were invented. However, awareness of the potential problem can help to reduce the impact of a negative development both for individuals, groups and societies if this would turn out to be the case.
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The United States Energy Information Administration - No Peak In World Oil Production In Another 23 Years
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cablle and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
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