I would like to take the opportunity and recommend an interview with the former Director of Intelligence at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) James R. Schlesinger on the subject of Peak Oil. Schlesinger has had a number of different high posts in the US including Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy.
Showing posts with label ASPO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ASPO. Show all posts
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Things That You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
Peak Oil just like the subject of Man-Made Global Warming is a very controversial subject that may give many a very pessimistic outlook on the future. In this post I will make some suggestions to what you can do in order to prepare for a world where the access to oil is not as high as we have gotten use to.
Personal Preparedness
1.) Learn About The Subject
If you don’t know anything about the subject get a overview of the subject. In order to get some basic understanding of the subject you can see a documentary like “Blind Spot” or “The End of Suburbia”. The videos from Crash Course by Chris Martensson or ASPO TV can also be a good place to get started.
2.) Get a Bike
A Bike is one of the most energy efficient ways to travel with muscle power. Many persons use their cars for short trips that might actually be faster to travel by bike. Using bikes does not only save money, it also increases your physical fitness and is good for your health.
3.) Get a Fuel Efficient Car
If you are dependent on a car to get around one way of reducing your vulnerability is to get a fuel efficient car. This way high fuel prices will have less of an impact on your personal situation. Other ways of reducing the cost of travel by car is to
• Always make sure that you have the right air pressure in you tiers
• Take an eco-driving course and learn how to drive as fuel efficient as possible
• Avoid driving at high speeds
• Car pool with other people if possible
• Do not drive more than necessary
4.) Your Home
If oil and energy prices would rise there are steps you can take to reduce the economical impact that it will have on you. If you live in a cold climate increasing the insulation of your home can reduce the amount of energy required to keep it warm. Many also have high indoor temperatures, lowering the temperature inside by just a few degrees can save much energy. Examples of other actions that you can take to conserve energy:
• Take short showers and avoid baths
• Get low energy light bulbs
• Turn of lights, your TV, computer and other appliances when you don’t use them.
• Remember to check the energy efficiency when you buy new electronics
5.) Food Consumption
If the oil prices would raise this might also increase the price of food. In many countries half of all food that is consumed gets thrown away today. If this applies to your personal situation this mean that you could basically be storing half of the food you are buying if you change your habits. In addition to this many in rich countries eat too many calories per day, not too few; overweight, heart disease and diabetes are much bigger problems than famine.
6.) Prioritize
Today much of the things that we consume are things that we might not actually need. Not too long ago it was common to pass on possessions like clothing, footwear, tools and other possessions from one generation to the next. When it comes to Crisis Preparedness it’s easy to get too focused on specific types of items. It is important that you balance your effort over multiple fields.
• When you buy something try to invest in quality items that will last over time
• Learn how to repair clothing and other items when they break
• Take care of your possessions; tools will last much longer if you use them with care.
7.) Start a Garden
For many Survivalist and Preppers the dream is to have a farm or retreat and be self sufficient. However, for most this will remain a dream, over half of the world population lives in cities and the number of people living in cities increase every year. If you live in a house and you can start a garden and grow some of the food that you eat on your own, you might not be able to be completely self sufficient. But you can produce some parts of what you need. Even people living in apartments can grow some of the food or spices that they need on their own, do what you can with what you got. You may not be able to be self sufficient, but you can most likely add some food or spices to your diet.
8.) Your Mindset
Peak Oil as an idea that stands in direct opposition against much of what we are taking for granted today. Many of the people in the world today have grown up during a period when a rise in the standard of living and an incredibly fast technological development has taken place. The idea of continued growth is deeply rotted in our minds, institutions, media and political parties. Many are not even aware of the concept of Peak Oil even if they know that fossil fuels are non renewable recourses. We still expect them to last forever.
The US already imports around half of the oil that’s being used every year today and domestic production is sinking every year and have been doing so since 1970 when the US Oil Production peaked. How would the American society look like if no imports were possible and only half of the amount of oil currently being used was available? How would it look if only a forth was available?
Accepting that this could become the case in maybe just a few decades or even less time is very hard to comprehend and imagine. We might find solutions so that the access to energy will remain high, but we might just simply have to adjust to a new situation. Changing ones perception and mindset is the most critical aspect in order to be able to make this transition.
In Your Community
9.) Watch a Documentary About The Subject With Your Friends or Family.
"Home” or The National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond are two suggestions, the first can be accessed for free on YouTube. Some will likely refuse the possibility, but some will learn and understand the concept.
10.) Get Involved
Get engaged in the Transition Network or some other type of organization that work with these types of issues. There are people that are working with Peak Oil and to promote Sustainability – You could be one of them.
11.) Put Pressure On Your Politicians
Many may expect that politicians and other may have a much better understand of this type of issues when they in many cases have no idea about this type of potential problems. Put pressure on your politicians and informing them about the potential problem. Are they aware about this type of problems and what are they doing about it? There are cities and communities that are actively working to reduce their dependency on oil and that do prepare for the possible consequences of Peak Oil. Your City or Community could become one of them.
Summary
Peak Oil is a subject that easily can get the most optimistic person pessimistic. The knowledge about the subject is still not very widespread even if the attention surrounding the subject has been increased the last years. Many within the Peak Oil Movement like Michael Ruppert the founder of CollapseNet are making very negative forecasts and believe that a Collapse is only a few months away. The message is that disaster is imminent.
Personally I have no idea what tomorrow will bring, so don’t see any point in making predictions. The worst could happen, there are no guarantees. But it is also possible that solutions can be found. Peak Oil is a Man-Made problem, we have created the problem and it is my belief that we can overcome it. If we can spread knowledge about the problem and change our ways we can at a minimum reduce the impact that Peak Oil might have both for our societies and for us as individuals. What happens tomorrow is not written, it’s up to us to decide how it will play out.
Other Articles:
Peak Oil
The Limits To Growth
Personal Preparedness
1.) Learn About The Subject
If you don’t know anything about the subject get a overview of the subject. In order to get some basic understanding of the subject you can see a documentary like “Blind Spot” or “The End of Suburbia”. The videos from Crash Course by Chris Martensson or ASPO TV can also be a good place to get started.
2.) Get a Bike
A Bike is one of the most energy efficient ways to travel with muscle power. Many persons use their cars for short trips that might actually be faster to travel by bike. Using bikes does not only save money, it also increases your physical fitness and is good for your health.
3.) Get a Fuel Efficient Car
If you are dependent on a car to get around one way of reducing your vulnerability is to get a fuel efficient car. This way high fuel prices will have less of an impact on your personal situation. Other ways of reducing the cost of travel by car is to
• Always make sure that you have the right air pressure in you tiers
• Take an eco-driving course and learn how to drive as fuel efficient as possible
• Avoid driving at high speeds
• Car pool with other people if possible
• Do not drive more than necessary
4.) Your Home
If oil and energy prices would rise there are steps you can take to reduce the economical impact that it will have on you. If you live in a cold climate increasing the insulation of your home can reduce the amount of energy required to keep it warm. Many also have high indoor temperatures, lowering the temperature inside by just a few degrees can save much energy. Examples of other actions that you can take to conserve energy:
• Take short showers and avoid baths
• Get low energy light bulbs
• Turn of lights, your TV, computer and other appliances when you don’t use them.
• Remember to check the energy efficiency when you buy new electronics
5.) Food Consumption
If the oil prices would raise this might also increase the price of food. In many countries half of all food that is consumed gets thrown away today. If this applies to your personal situation this mean that you could basically be storing half of the food you are buying if you change your habits. In addition to this many in rich countries eat too many calories per day, not too few; overweight, heart disease and diabetes are much bigger problems than famine.
6.) Prioritize
Today much of the things that we consume are things that we might not actually need. Not too long ago it was common to pass on possessions like clothing, footwear, tools and other possessions from one generation to the next. When it comes to Crisis Preparedness it’s easy to get too focused on specific types of items. It is important that you balance your effort over multiple fields.
• When you buy something try to invest in quality items that will last over time
• Learn how to repair clothing and other items when they break
• Take care of your possessions; tools will last much longer if you use them with care.
7.) Start a Garden
For many Survivalist and Preppers the dream is to have a farm or retreat and be self sufficient. However, for most this will remain a dream, over half of the world population lives in cities and the number of people living in cities increase every year. If you live in a house and you can start a garden and grow some of the food that you eat on your own, you might not be able to be completely self sufficient. But you can produce some parts of what you need. Even people living in apartments can grow some of the food or spices that they need on their own, do what you can with what you got. You may not be able to be self sufficient, but you can most likely add some food or spices to your diet.
8.) Your Mindset
Peak Oil as an idea that stands in direct opposition against much of what we are taking for granted today. Many of the people in the world today have grown up during a period when a rise in the standard of living and an incredibly fast technological development has taken place. The idea of continued growth is deeply rotted in our minds, institutions, media and political parties. Many are not even aware of the concept of Peak Oil even if they know that fossil fuels are non renewable recourses. We still expect them to last forever.
The US already imports around half of the oil that’s being used every year today and domestic production is sinking every year and have been doing so since 1970 when the US Oil Production peaked. How would the American society look like if no imports were possible and only half of the amount of oil currently being used was available? How would it look if only a forth was available?
Accepting that this could become the case in maybe just a few decades or even less time is very hard to comprehend and imagine. We might find solutions so that the access to energy will remain high, but we might just simply have to adjust to a new situation. Changing ones perception and mindset is the most critical aspect in order to be able to make this transition.
In Your Community
9.) Watch a Documentary About The Subject With Your Friends or Family.
"Home” or The National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond are two suggestions, the first can be accessed for free on YouTube. Some will likely refuse the possibility, but some will learn and understand the concept.
10.) Get Involved
Get engaged in the Transition Network or some other type of organization that work with these types of issues. There are people that are working with Peak Oil and to promote Sustainability – You could be one of them.
11.) Put Pressure On Your Politicians
Many may expect that politicians and other may have a much better understand of this type of issues when they in many cases have no idea about this type of potential problems. Put pressure on your politicians and informing them about the potential problem. Are they aware about this type of problems and what are they doing about it? There are cities and communities that are actively working to reduce their dependency on oil and that do prepare for the possible consequences of Peak Oil. Your City or Community could become one of them.
Summary
Peak Oil is a subject that easily can get the most optimistic person pessimistic. The knowledge about the subject is still not very widespread even if the attention surrounding the subject has been increased the last years. Many within the Peak Oil Movement like Michael Ruppert the founder of CollapseNet are making very negative forecasts and believe that a Collapse is only a few months away. The message is that disaster is imminent.
Personally I have no idea what tomorrow will bring, so don’t see any point in making predictions. The worst could happen, there are no guarantees. But it is also possible that solutions can be found. Peak Oil is a Man-Made problem, we have created the problem and it is my belief that we can overcome it. If we can spread knowledge about the problem and change our ways we can at a minimum reduce the impact that Peak Oil might have both for our societies and for us as individuals. What happens tomorrow is not written, it’s up to us to decide how it will play out.
Other Articles:
Peak Oil
The Limits To Growth
Sunday, January 9, 2011
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Peak Oil
The current disaster in the Mexican Golf after the explosion that sunk the Oil platform Deepwater Horizon much attention has been focused on the security of deepwater offshore drilling. One subject that isn’t discussed that often is the access to oil and if the access to oil will become more scares.
The Term Peak Oil
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist born in 1903 that would later create the term “Peak Oil”. Hubbert got he’s degrees from the University of Chicago and would later work for Shell and USGS. He also worked as teacher at a number of different universities like MIT. In 1956 Hubbert presented the theory that US Oil Production would peak between 1966-1972 and start to decrease after this. Hubbert came to this theory by studying individual fields and how the production curved changed over time and adding them together. Hubbert’s estimates for the American oil production would later be proved right even if very few believed him when he first made he’s predictions.
Will There Be a Global Peak and When Will it Happen?
Many individual countries have reached their peak in oil production (peak oil) and are now in decline. Other countries than the US is Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Venezuela, Great Britain and around 40 more countries. The question many researchers ask is when the total world production will reach a peak and when the decline in World Oil Production will start. Estimates vary heavily, some researchers believe that the peak may have already been reached in 2005, others that it may happen during 2010, USGS estimates in a report from 2001 that it may take another 30 years and some Saudi experts believe that it may be 100 years before it happens.
Why is Oil so Important?
Oil originates from a period several million years ago and is basically vegetation of different sorts that have been compressed in the earth under very high pressure and temperatures. Other forms of fuels also resulted from this process like coal and natural gas. Fossil fuels are in other words solar energy that have been stored as a result of photosynthesis in combination with geological process a very long time ago. These resources are renewable, but the process takes millions of years so they are not renewable from a current human perspective. This makes the use of oil extremely energy efficient, the amount of energy one can get from taking advantage of these resources is extremely great. Oil is also easy to store and transport, it contains very much energy in relation to its weight.
Timeline
1910 A pressurized oil well in Lakeview Gusher, California starts leaking and would leak over 9 million barrels of oil over the next 18 months.
1944 During The Second World War Nazi Germany used coal to create oil in order to power their tanks and airplanes after their access to oil was reduced.
1970 The oil production in the United States peaks
1973 Saudi Arabia under its leader King Faisal imposes an Oil Embargo against the US and the Netherlands, the amount of oil that was withheld was relatively small but the consequences were big. The event caused the oil price the increase fourfold to just under 12 dollars and the price continued to rise even after the embargo was lifted. Canada Oil production also peaks in this year.
1974 Iran’s oil production peaks
1978 The Iranian Revolution takes place, after the revolution the oil production in Iran drops to around a third of its previous production and the oil prices increase rapidly.
1979 Nigeria’s oil production peaks
1979 A blowout in the Mexican oil well Ixtoc I cause around 3 million barrels of oil to leak into the Gulf of Mexico.
1982 OPEC countries stop reporting oil production on field to field basis. This is one of the major causes of insecurity since it’s very hard to estimate and predict the continued development without any data to see patterns in production for different oil fields.
1989 The oil tanker Exxon Valdez running aground outside of Alaska, spilling over 250.000 barrels of oil into the ocean.
1991 Iraq invades Kuwait War, during the response “Operation Desert Storm” Iraqi troops set fire to oil fields and tankers, many estimates of the size of the oil spill is over 10 million barrels.
1998 The oil production in Venezuela peaks
1999 The oil production in Great Britain and Qatar peaks
2000 The Oil production in Norway, Mexico and Colombia peaks
2002 Oil Production in India peaks
2005 Hurricane Katrina damage several offshore platforms.
2010 The Oil Rig “Deepwater Horizon” explodes after an accident in the Mexican Gulf. Several people died in the initial explosion and a large leak has occurred. How big the leak has been has been an debated issue, estimated has varied that 5.000 to over 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day could be leaking. Efforts have been initiated to stop and reduce the effects of the oil spill and the action from both the Obama administration and British Petroleum (BP) has been questioned.
The Saudi Perspective
Matthew Simmons, an energy investor banker has done some research on how the Oil production in Saudi Arabia have changed over time in he’s book “Twilight in the Desert”. Simmons starts at the beginning of Saudi Oil era and also goes into to detail about how political changes have taken place in country. Almost all of the major Saudi Oil fields were found in an early stage and the major Saudi Oil fields account for almost all of the Saudi Oil Production. Especially the Oil Field Ghawar has a special importance. Ghawar is the largest Oil field ever discovered and has been the sole producer for more than half of the Saudi Oil production. No other field has even come close the size and production of this field that produced over 5,5 million barrels per day at most. The second largest Oil field in the world, the Saudi offshore field Safaniya has only reached a capacity of just over 1,5 million barrels per day at most. Simmons also discuss the Saudi Oil production in relation to the American oil production that peaked in the 1970:s. In the beginning the Saudi Oil Production was ruled by the company the later was put under government control. The problem in Saudi Arabia also has other aspects; the country has enormously high birthrates, over 6 children per women in combination with a high standard of living and low child mortality rate, a combination that has resulted in a very big population increase. Water is also a big problem in Saudi Arabia; much of the water is sea-water and must be made into fresh water, a process that requires enormous amounts of energy retrieved from oil. Saudi Arabia has have a critical role in the world when an extra need for oil has taken place Saudi Arabia has produced the extra oil by putting hard pressure on their Oil Fields like during the Iranian revolution that resulted in an extremely low oil production for a few years and during the build up for Operation Desert Storm.
Simmons also shows the production rate for other giant fields outside of Saudi Arabia, and how the production rate has changed after they peaked, and suggest that it’s only natural for the Oil fields in Saudi to follow a similar pattern after they peak in production. One crucial aspect here is that almost all production in Saudi comes from a few fields and despite of intensive search for more Oil fields, non fields of similar size has been found and instead an enormous amount of time and energy has been used to increase the production in the oil fields. There is a big discussion between economist and geologist about how much oil there is in the world. Some geologist say that there is only a certain amount of oil available and money cant changed that while some economist say that when the oil price rises so does the amount of oil that available since the higher price makes it profitable to extract from locations where it was previously to expensive. Here Simmons states that technology and money invested had increased the amount of oil that Saudi has produced and continued to produce, experts from every field in combination with new technology like horizontal drilling and computer models have made an enormous difference when it comes to the amount of oil that can be retrieved from different fields. In other words Simmons combines the insights from both economists and geologists.
Movies
There have been a number of different movies made about Peak Oil and the possible consequences of this. “The end of Suburbia” was one of the first movies on this theme and it gathered a large number of different experts in the movie. “A Crude Awaking” and "Crude Impact" are two another movies that also present the same perspective.”Home” is a recent movie that focuses on both energy and environmental issues, its filmed from a aerial perspective and discusses different aspects of human development and the focuses on the need for sustainable development, this is a movie that can be seen for free online and I recommend everyone to see it. Both for the message but also because it’s proberly the best movie that has been produces on the subject. “Blind Spot” is a movie about Peak Oil with many of the leading researchers within the field that also incorporate some other researchers like Joseph Tainter; author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. Tainter explains he’s basic theory about diminishing marginal return and how this issue can be related to Peak Oil. Another movie that been produced on the same subject is the movie “Collapse” with Michael Ruppert based on Rupperts book “Confronting Collapse”. Ruppert has also written the newsletter and blog “From the Wilderness” and the book “Crossing the Rubicon”. Ruppert also incorporates financial aspects and conspiracy theories into the same theme and he’s perspective is even more negative than many of the other researchers in the same field. Ruppert has also recently launched the site “Collapse Network” where he offers advice for how to survive the coming collapse.
Researchers
There are many researchers that have written about Peak Oil. Matthew Simmons book “Twilight in the Desert” have already been mentioned as well as Michael Rupperts “Confronting Collapse” and “Crossing the Rubicon”. Examples of other researchers are Jeff Rubins “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller", Richard Heinbergs “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” and “Peak Everything”, Dale Allan Pfeiffer “Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture” and Kenneth S. Deffeyes “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak”.
There are also organizations committed to studying this phenomena like "The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas” also known as ASPO. ASPO have national organizations in many countries that you find on ASPO:s homepage. Some off the most famous researchers on ASPO is Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campell.
Alternatives
Many writers in the Peak Oil movement has also made research into the alternatives to fossil fuels like nuclear power, using coal to create liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen powered vehicles, fusion power and renewable sources of energy like water, wind, solar, bio fuels and geothermic energy.
Many critics put focus on modern agriculture and the need for both fertilizers and pest ices in order to create bio fuels and claim that in many cases bio fuels actually uses more energy from fossil fuels to make them today than the amount of energy that they make available.
Survival and Preparedness
Will there be a peak in the Oil Production? If this is the case, when will it happen and what will the consequences be? These are all very hard questions to answer. Different researchers make different assessments and the lack of data available makes it hard to make predictions and see clear trends. Personally I make the assessment that there will be a peak in global oil production sooner or later, if it haven’t already taken place. When this will happen and how fast the decline rate will be after the peak is very important. If the decline rate is very slow it will take many years before the lack of oil becomes apparent. Another very important factor is that one will only be able to know that that peak has taken place in retrospective, after it has actually happened. If the decline rate will be fast the problems will manifest sooner than if the decline rate is low. The slower the decline rate the more time there will be for finding alternative solutions and adjusting to a world with less oil available. How we will deal with this situation is the most critical aspect in my opinion. Peak Oil does not have to mean the end of the world, but it can create large problems if the decline rate will be very high and if we don’t find solutions for the problems that can be presented in form of transportation, agriculture and food production.
So how does one prepare for such an event? To start with no one really knows what the consequences will be. The basics needs for survival; shelter, water, fire, food and security etc will still be the same as today.
If you want to prepare for a scenario like this I suggest that you try to reducing your dependency on oil and energy. Do not use your car more than you have to if you have to and try to find a vehicle that don’t consume to much fuel per mile. If the cost per gallon/liter goes up it will be cheaper to drive a car if it doesn’t have an extremely high fuel consumption. Your location is also important, can you get to work by using your bike, take the bus or train? Taking the bike or walking does not only reduce costs, it also improves your fitness. Food may become more expensive if oil prices rise. In order to prepare for this I suggest that you try to have food storage and that you grow some of your own food if this is possible. More details for problems surrounding this you can find in the post “Food, Starvation and Famine – Crisis Preparedness and Survival”.
The economic system is also likely to experience some changes – if transportation costs go up there may become more profitable to grow food more locally and produce goods more locally as well. This can be seen as reverse “Globalization”. Many in the Peak Oil movement envision drastic changes like global famine, war over resources and even a sudden collapse that’s coming soon. I share much of the concern that many researchers have when it comes to areas like food production, transportation and similar issues. However I don’t believe this will result in a sudden collapse of society. However it may result in enormous problems if solutions for the problems aren’t found. The main problem as I see it is that the problem isn’t discussed that much, even if movies like “Home” and “Collapse” has increased awareness. Getting attention to the problem is only one side of the coin, the other important aspect is meaning making – what does this information mean? What will the consequences be, how can we solve the problem etc? I see a danger in that people like Ruppert mixes conspiracy theories with the peak oil problem; few will take the issue seriously if this is how the problem is presented. If you want to inform anyone about the potential problem I suggest that you recommend the movie “Home” since it’s both for free and range over a broad spectrum of problems without incorporating conspiracy theories into the problem.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Analysis
There is great deal of uncertainty when it comes to Peak Oil. It’s hard to estimate the sizes of the current reserves even if all countries produced public data on field to field production for each year. When countries don’t produce this data it’s even harder to make an estimate. And if there is a peak in oil production, how large will the decline rate be? How will economical factors affect this? What will happen to the oil price, will it increase or decrease? If it increases will it increase very fast like during other cases to a level many times over the price today or will it increase slowly? Insecurity also applies to the alternatives to fossil fuels, some believe that new alternatives will be provided by the market and other believe that alternatives like bio fuels and nuclear power may take more energy than they produce if the access to fossil fuels becomes scares.
Anything can happen, and what truly will take place only time can tell. This is a field that potentially can cause severe stress for individuals and societies in a short and long term perspective. But solutions could also be found that allows energy prices to remain low and access to energy to be great. Technological progress is very hard to predict, inventions like penicillin, the computer and many other inventions have radically changed our lives in ways that no one predicted before they were invented. However, awareness of the potential problem can help to reduce the impact of a negative development both for individuals, groups and societies if this would turn out to be the case.
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The United States Energy Information Administration - No Peak In World Oil Production In Another 23 Years
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cablle and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
The Term Peak Oil
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist born in 1903 that would later create the term “Peak Oil”. Hubbert got he’s degrees from the University of Chicago and would later work for Shell and USGS. He also worked as teacher at a number of different universities like MIT. In 1956 Hubbert presented the theory that US Oil Production would peak between 1966-1972 and start to decrease after this. Hubbert came to this theory by studying individual fields and how the production curved changed over time and adding them together. Hubbert’s estimates for the American oil production would later be proved right even if very few believed him when he first made he’s predictions.
Will There Be a Global Peak and When Will it Happen?
Many individual countries have reached their peak in oil production (peak oil) and are now in decline. Other countries than the US is Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Venezuela, Great Britain and around 40 more countries. The question many researchers ask is when the total world production will reach a peak and when the decline in World Oil Production will start. Estimates vary heavily, some researchers believe that the peak may have already been reached in 2005, others that it may happen during 2010, USGS estimates in a report from 2001 that it may take another 30 years and some Saudi experts believe that it may be 100 years before it happens.
Why is Oil so Important?
Oil originates from a period several million years ago and is basically vegetation of different sorts that have been compressed in the earth under very high pressure and temperatures. Other forms of fuels also resulted from this process like coal and natural gas. Fossil fuels are in other words solar energy that have been stored as a result of photosynthesis in combination with geological process a very long time ago. These resources are renewable, but the process takes millions of years so they are not renewable from a current human perspective. This makes the use of oil extremely energy efficient, the amount of energy one can get from taking advantage of these resources is extremely great. Oil is also easy to store and transport, it contains very much energy in relation to its weight.
Timeline
1910 A pressurized oil well in Lakeview Gusher, California starts leaking and would leak over 9 million barrels of oil over the next 18 months.
1944 During The Second World War Nazi Germany used coal to create oil in order to power their tanks and airplanes after their access to oil was reduced.
1970 The oil production in the United States peaks
1973 Saudi Arabia under its leader King Faisal imposes an Oil Embargo against the US and the Netherlands, the amount of oil that was withheld was relatively small but the consequences were big. The event caused the oil price the increase fourfold to just under 12 dollars and the price continued to rise even after the embargo was lifted. Canada Oil production also peaks in this year.
1974 Iran’s oil production peaks
1978 The Iranian Revolution takes place, after the revolution the oil production in Iran drops to around a third of its previous production and the oil prices increase rapidly.
1979 Nigeria’s oil production peaks
1979 A blowout in the Mexican oil well Ixtoc I cause around 3 million barrels of oil to leak into the Gulf of Mexico.
1982 OPEC countries stop reporting oil production on field to field basis. This is one of the major causes of insecurity since it’s very hard to estimate and predict the continued development without any data to see patterns in production for different oil fields.
1989 The oil tanker Exxon Valdez running aground outside of Alaska, spilling over 250.000 barrels of oil into the ocean.
1991 Iraq invades Kuwait War, during the response “Operation Desert Storm” Iraqi troops set fire to oil fields and tankers, many estimates of the size of the oil spill is over 10 million barrels.
1998 The oil production in Venezuela peaks
1999 The oil production in Great Britain and Qatar peaks
2000 The Oil production in Norway, Mexico and Colombia peaks
2002 Oil Production in India peaks
2005 Hurricane Katrina damage several offshore platforms.
2010 The Oil Rig “Deepwater Horizon” explodes after an accident in the Mexican Gulf. Several people died in the initial explosion and a large leak has occurred. How big the leak has been has been an debated issue, estimated has varied that 5.000 to over 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day could be leaking. Efforts have been initiated to stop and reduce the effects of the oil spill and the action from both the Obama administration and British Petroleum (BP) has been questioned.
The Saudi Perspective
Matthew Simmons, an energy investor banker has done some research on how the Oil production in Saudi Arabia have changed over time in he’s book “Twilight in the Desert”. Simmons starts at the beginning of Saudi Oil era and also goes into to detail about how political changes have taken place in country. Almost all of the major Saudi Oil fields were found in an early stage and the major Saudi Oil fields account for almost all of the Saudi Oil Production. Especially the Oil Field Ghawar has a special importance. Ghawar is the largest Oil field ever discovered and has been the sole producer for more than half of the Saudi Oil production. No other field has even come close the size and production of this field that produced over 5,5 million barrels per day at most. The second largest Oil field in the world, the Saudi offshore field Safaniya has only reached a capacity of just over 1,5 million barrels per day at most. Simmons also discuss the Saudi Oil production in relation to the American oil production that peaked in the 1970:s. In the beginning the Saudi Oil Production was ruled by the company the later was put under government control. The problem in Saudi Arabia also has other aspects; the country has enormously high birthrates, over 6 children per women in combination with a high standard of living and low child mortality rate, a combination that has resulted in a very big population increase. Water is also a big problem in Saudi Arabia; much of the water is sea-water and must be made into fresh water, a process that requires enormous amounts of energy retrieved from oil. Saudi Arabia has have a critical role in the world when an extra need for oil has taken place Saudi Arabia has produced the extra oil by putting hard pressure on their Oil Fields like during the Iranian revolution that resulted in an extremely low oil production for a few years and during the build up for Operation Desert Storm.
Simmons also shows the production rate for other giant fields outside of Saudi Arabia, and how the production rate has changed after they peaked, and suggest that it’s only natural for the Oil fields in Saudi to follow a similar pattern after they peak in production. One crucial aspect here is that almost all production in Saudi comes from a few fields and despite of intensive search for more Oil fields, non fields of similar size has been found and instead an enormous amount of time and energy has been used to increase the production in the oil fields. There is a big discussion between economist and geologist about how much oil there is in the world. Some geologist say that there is only a certain amount of oil available and money cant changed that while some economist say that when the oil price rises so does the amount of oil that available since the higher price makes it profitable to extract from locations where it was previously to expensive. Here Simmons states that technology and money invested had increased the amount of oil that Saudi has produced and continued to produce, experts from every field in combination with new technology like horizontal drilling and computer models have made an enormous difference when it comes to the amount of oil that can be retrieved from different fields. In other words Simmons combines the insights from both economists and geologists.
Movies
There have been a number of different movies made about Peak Oil and the possible consequences of this. “The end of Suburbia” was one of the first movies on this theme and it gathered a large number of different experts in the movie. “A Crude Awaking” and "Crude Impact" are two another movies that also present the same perspective.”Home” is a recent movie that focuses on both energy and environmental issues, its filmed from a aerial perspective and discusses different aspects of human development and the focuses on the need for sustainable development, this is a movie that can be seen for free online and I recommend everyone to see it. Both for the message but also because it’s proberly the best movie that has been produces on the subject. “Blind Spot” is a movie about Peak Oil with many of the leading researchers within the field that also incorporate some other researchers like Joseph Tainter; author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. Tainter explains he’s basic theory about diminishing marginal return and how this issue can be related to Peak Oil. Another movie that been produced on the same subject is the movie “Collapse” with Michael Ruppert based on Rupperts book “Confronting Collapse”. Ruppert has also written the newsletter and blog “From the Wilderness” and the book “Crossing the Rubicon”. Ruppert also incorporates financial aspects and conspiracy theories into the same theme and he’s perspective is even more negative than many of the other researchers in the same field. Ruppert has also recently launched the site “Collapse Network” where he offers advice for how to survive the coming collapse.
Researchers
There are many researchers that have written about Peak Oil. Matthew Simmons book “Twilight in the Desert” have already been mentioned as well as Michael Rupperts “Confronting Collapse” and “Crossing the Rubicon”. Examples of other researchers are Jeff Rubins “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller", Richard Heinbergs “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” and “Peak Everything”, Dale Allan Pfeiffer “Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture” and Kenneth S. Deffeyes “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak”.
There are also organizations committed to studying this phenomena like "The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas” also known as ASPO. ASPO have national organizations in many countries that you find on ASPO:s homepage. Some off the most famous researchers on ASPO is Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campell.
Alternatives
Many writers in the Peak Oil movement has also made research into the alternatives to fossil fuels like nuclear power, using coal to create liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen powered vehicles, fusion power and renewable sources of energy like water, wind, solar, bio fuels and geothermic energy.
Many critics put focus on modern agriculture and the need for both fertilizers and pest ices in order to create bio fuels and claim that in many cases bio fuels actually uses more energy from fossil fuels to make them today than the amount of energy that they make available.
Survival and Preparedness
Will there be a peak in the Oil Production? If this is the case, when will it happen and what will the consequences be? These are all very hard questions to answer. Different researchers make different assessments and the lack of data available makes it hard to make predictions and see clear trends. Personally I make the assessment that there will be a peak in global oil production sooner or later, if it haven’t already taken place. When this will happen and how fast the decline rate will be after the peak is very important. If the decline rate is very slow it will take many years before the lack of oil becomes apparent. Another very important factor is that one will only be able to know that that peak has taken place in retrospective, after it has actually happened. If the decline rate will be fast the problems will manifest sooner than if the decline rate is low. The slower the decline rate the more time there will be for finding alternative solutions and adjusting to a world with less oil available. How we will deal with this situation is the most critical aspect in my opinion. Peak Oil does not have to mean the end of the world, but it can create large problems if the decline rate will be very high and if we don’t find solutions for the problems that can be presented in form of transportation, agriculture and food production.
So how does one prepare for such an event? To start with no one really knows what the consequences will be. The basics needs for survival; shelter, water, fire, food and security etc will still be the same as today.
If you want to prepare for a scenario like this I suggest that you try to reducing your dependency on oil and energy. Do not use your car more than you have to if you have to and try to find a vehicle that don’t consume to much fuel per mile. If the cost per gallon/liter goes up it will be cheaper to drive a car if it doesn’t have an extremely high fuel consumption. Your location is also important, can you get to work by using your bike, take the bus or train? Taking the bike or walking does not only reduce costs, it also improves your fitness. Food may become more expensive if oil prices rise. In order to prepare for this I suggest that you try to have food storage and that you grow some of your own food if this is possible. More details for problems surrounding this you can find in the post “Food, Starvation and Famine – Crisis Preparedness and Survival”.
The economic system is also likely to experience some changes – if transportation costs go up there may become more profitable to grow food more locally and produce goods more locally as well. This can be seen as reverse “Globalization”. Many in the Peak Oil movement envision drastic changes like global famine, war over resources and even a sudden collapse that’s coming soon. I share much of the concern that many researchers have when it comes to areas like food production, transportation and similar issues. However I don’t believe this will result in a sudden collapse of society. However it may result in enormous problems if solutions for the problems aren’t found. The main problem as I see it is that the problem isn’t discussed that much, even if movies like “Home” and “Collapse” has increased awareness. Getting attention to the problem is only one side of the coin, the other important aspect is meaning making – what does this information mean? What will the consequences be, how can we solve the problem etc? I see a danger in that people like Ruppert mixes conspiracy theories with the peak oil problem; few will take the issue seriously if this is how the problem is presented. If you want to inform anyone about the potential problem I suggest that you recommend the movie “Home” since it’s both for free and range over a broad spectrum of problems without incorporating conspiracy theories into the problem.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Analysis
There is great deal of uncertainty when it comes to Peak Oil. It’s hard to estimate the sizes of the current reserves even if all countries produced public data on field to field production for each year. When countries don’t produce this data it’s even harder to make an estimate. And if there is a peak in oil production, how large will the decline rate be? How will economical factors affect this? What will happen to the oil price, will it increase or decrease? If it increases will it increase very fast like during other cases to a level many times over the price today or will it increase slowly? Insecurity also applies to the alternatives to fossil fuels, some believe that new alternatives will be provided by the market and other believe that alternatives like bio fuels and nuclear power may take more energy than they produce if the access to fossil fuels becomes scares.
Anything can happen, and what truly will take place only time can tell. This is a field that potentially can cause severe stress for individuals and societies in a short and long term perspective. But solutions could also be found that allows energy prices to remain low and access to energy to be great. Technological progress is very hard to predict, inventions like penicillin, the computer and many other inventions have radically changed our lives in ways that no one predicted before they were invented. However, awareness of the potential problem can help to reduce the impact of a negative development both for individuals, groups and societies if this would turn out to be the case.
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The United States Energy Information Administration - No Peak In World Oil Production In Another 23 Years
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cablle and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
For Swedish Survivalists
This is an attempt to give Survivalists and Preppers living in Scandinavia and in particular Sweden some advice on literature, equipment, resources and web pages where you can look for further information.
Webpages
The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap – MSB) is the Swedish agency that is responsible for civil crisis preparedness. MSB is a new agency that was created when incorporating three different agencies into one new agency. On the agencies homepage you can find information and other resources like the book about first aid “Prehospitalt akut omhändertagande Enligt principen L-ABCDE” by Charlotta Jande-Waldau and Birgitta Windarve. You can also find MSB:s assessment of the nationwide capacity to deal with crisis situations from 2008 “Samhällets krishanteringsförmåga 2008”. For regional Risk Assesments I recommend that you try the webpage of your County Administrative Board (Länsstyrelse) for their latest Risk Assessment (Risk och Sårbarhets Analys – ROSA). MSB:s webpage is also available in English for those how would like to learn more.
Crisis Information.se (Krisinformation.se) is a Swedish Webpage that presents information about ongoing crisis situations in Sweden and around the world. If you travel abroad to a country I recommend that you check out the Department of States recommendations for travel to this particular country and make some basic research before you go. A new webpage called “Your Security” (Din Säkerhet) has been launched by the The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. This Webpage is similar to the American webpage Ready.gov by FEMA and focuses on what individuals can do to reduce their vulnerability to different kind of threats and crisis situations.
The Swedish Civil Defense League (Civilförsvarsförbundet) is a Swedish organization that offers education to civilians about how to prepare for different kinds of crisis situations. In many cities they also train teams similar to the Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) found in the US called Frivilliga Resursgrupper (FRG). They also offer courses in First Aid and CPR. The Red Cross also trains teams of volunteers like Medical Personal (Förstahjälpare) that’s used as a resource in case of extraordinary events and for everyday activities that may call for extra personal.
The Swedish Defense Research Agency (Totalförsvarets Forsknings Institut –FOI) offers an online resource about Weapons of Massdestruction for those how would like to learn more about the subject and the Swedish capacity to deal with this kind of events (Faktasamling CBRN). The webpage of the agency is also available in English.
Webpages
The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap – MSB) is the Swedish agency that is responsible for civil crisis preparedness. MSB is a new agency that was created when incorporating three different agencies into one new agency. On the agencies homepage you can find information and other resources like the book about first aid “Prehospitalt akut omhändertagande Enligt principen L-ABCDE” by Charlotta Jande-Waldau and Birgitta Windarve. You can also find MSB:s assessment of the nationwide capacity to deal with crisis situations from 2008 “Samhällets krishanteringsförmåga 2008”. For regional Risk Assesments I recommend that you try the webpage of your County Administrative Board (Länsstyrelse) for their latest Risk Assessment (Risk och Sårbarhets Analys – ROSA). MSB:s webpage is also available in English for those how would like to learn more.
Crisis Information.se (Krisinformation.se) is a Swedish Webpage that presents information about ongoing crisis situations in Sweden and around the world. If you travel abroad to a country I recommend that you check out the Department of States recommendations for travel to this particular country and make some basic research before you go. A new webpage called “Your Security” (Din Säkerhet) has been launched by the The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. This Webpage is similar to the American webpage Ready.gov by FEMA and focuses on what individuals can do to reduce their vulnerability to different kind of threats and crisis situations.
The Swedish Civil Defense League (Civilförsvarsförbundet) is a Swedish organization that offers education to civilians about how to prepare for different kinds of crisis situations. In many cities they also train teams similar to the Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) found in the US called Frivilliga Resursgrupper (FRG). They also offer courses in First Aid and CPR. The Red Cross also trains teams of volunteers like Medical Personal (Förstahjälpare) that’s used as a resource in case of extraordinary events and for everyday activities that may call for extra personal.
The Swedish Defense Research Agency (Totalförsvarets Forsknings Institut –FOI) offers an online resource about Weapons of Massdestruction for those how would like to learn more about the subject and the Swedish capacity to deal with this kind of events (Faktasamling CBRN). The webpage of the agency is also available in English.
The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), is an government agency that provides online weather forecasts and severe weather warnings.
Books and Swedish Authors
The Swedish Army Survival Handbook is one of the best survival guides there is for the Swedish climate and conditions. It can be hard to find paper copies but it can also be downloaded online.
Lars Fält is a Swedish survival expert that has written many book about survival and wilderness techniques, “Friluftsboken” and ”Uteliv med Överlevnadsteknik” are two examples. Fält has a background as an Army Survival Instructor and has trained with American and British Special Forces. However, none of Fälts books are available in English.
Wilhelm Agrell is a Swedish Proffesor within the field Intelligence Analysis, Agrell is the person how have made this subject into a academical field in Sweden and hold courses on the subject at the University of Lund. Some of the books Agrell has written are "Konsten att Gissa Rätt", "Förvarning och samhällshot" and "Underrätttelseanalysens metoder och problem", all of these books are only available in Swedish. However Agrell has been one of the authors of the book: “National Intelligence Systems”.
“MIMMS: Ett metodiskt sätt att hantera allvarliga händelser” is a book about how triage after mass casualty events should be handled. The book focuses on the Swedish perspective and how the different Swedish first responders are suppose to work together in this type of situations.
Internet Stores
In Scandinavia it can be hard find many of the items that can be accessed easily for those living in the United States. One option is of course to order from internet stores located in States and pay the shipping and taxes for the items. However there is a number of Swedish Internet stores that sell items related to survival and crisis preparedness.
Recon Vildmark sells a number of different products related to survival like knives, flashlights, compasses, watches, gloves etc. They also sell products from Snigel Design that manufactures magazine pouches, first aid bags, backpacks etc. Terräng, Garderoben and D-Gear are stores that offer similar products.There is also a number of internet stores that specializes in flashlights like Ridge and Ficklampsbutiken.
Cold Skills Collection also sell similar items but focuses on a fewer number of items with high quality. They sell some items that can be hard to find at other Swedish Internet retailers and also offers survival courses. The main disadvantage is that they have rather high prices and that the cost for shipping is quite high. Their webpage is also available in English.
Addnature, Get Out and Outnet are three stores that mainly focus on more mainstream hiking, hunting and camping equipment. They have large inventories and the prices are often lower than regular stores. A tip is to try their products, especially clothing in regular stores and before you order it. Förklok and Safety Store are internet store that focuses on preparedness items for your home.
Knivkompaniet, Knivhuset, Knivbutik.se and Knife Nordic are three Swedish internet stores that are specialized in knives. I would once again like to recommend the knives from Fällkniven and the axes from Gränsfors bruk.
Swedish Blogs
There quite a few Swedish Survivalist Blogs including ”Blott Sverige Svenska Preppers har”; one of the biggest available that used to be known under the name “Att leva efter 2012 / Innan det sker”. The blog was down for a couple of months but the author has resumed writing it. There are also some other blogs like my favorite Swedish Survivalist Blog "Preppers". The blog is written in Swedish but Google Translate can provide a quite good translation.
Some of the other Blogs that can be found:
· Den Svenska Argus
· Nisse i Torpet
· Bodis - Peak Oil och dess konsekvenser
· BugOut.se
· Eldöga
· Survla
· Upp 19:15
· Svensk Survivalism
· Swedish Prepper
· Tulum
· Ylven
· Southeast
· Off-grid.se
· Kuslingen
”Cornucupia” Is a good Swedish blog that touches many different subjects like Finance, Peak Oil and Sustainable Development. This is one of the largest Swedish blogs on the web. The author has also written a book called "Midvintermörker".
The Swedish Army Survival Handbook is one of the best survival guides there is for the Swedish climate and conditions. It can be hard to find paper copies but it can also be downloaded online.
Lars Fält is a Swedish survival expert that has written many book about survival and wilderness techniques, “Friluftsboken” and ”Uteliv med Överlevnadsteknik” are two examples. Fält has a background as an Army Survival Instructor and has trained with American and British Special Forces. However, none of Fälts books are available in English.
Wilhelm Agrell is a Swedish Proffesor within the field Intelligence Analysis, Agrell is the person how have made this subject into a academical field in Sweden and hold courses on the subject at the University of Lund. Some of the books Agrell has written are "Konsten att Gissa Rätt", "Förvarning och samhällshot" and "Underrätttelseanalysens metoder och problem", all of these books are only available in Swedish. However Agrell has been one of the authors of the book: “National Intelligence Systems”.
“MIMMS: Ett metodiskt sätt att hantera allvarliga händelser” is a book about how triage after mass casualty events should be handled. The book focuses on the Swedish perspective and how the different Swedish first responders are suppose to work together in this type of situations.
Internet Stores
In Scandinavia it can be hard find many of the items that can be accessed easily for those living in the United States. One option is of course to order from internet stores located in States and pay the shipping and taxes for the items. However there is a number of Swedish Internet stores that sell items related to survival and crisis preparedness.
Recon Vildmark sells a number of different products related to survival like knives, flashlights, compasses, watches, gloves etc. They also sell products from Snigel Design that manufactures magazine pouches, first aid bags, backpacks etc. Terräng, Garderoben and D-Gear are stores that offer similar products.There is also a number of internet stores that specializes in flashlights like Ridge and Ficklampsbutiken.
Cold Skills Collection also sell similar items but focuses on a fewer number of items with high quality. They sell some items that can be hard to find at other Swedish Internet retailers and also offers survival courses. The main disadvantage is that they have rather high prices and that the cost for shipping is quite high. Their webpage is also available in English.
Addnature, Get Out and Outnet are three stores that mainly focus on more mainstream hiking, hunting and camping equipment. They have large inventories and the prices are often lower than regular stores. A tip is to try their products, especially clothing in regular stores and before you order it. Förklok and Safety Store are internet store that focuses on preparedness items for your home.
Knivkompaniet, Knivhuset, Knivbutik.se and Knife Nordic are three Swedish internet stores that are specialized in knives. I would once again like to recommend the knives from Fällkniven and the axes from Gränsfors bruk.
SWEMEDIC is an internet store that sells quite comprehensive medical kits and other forms of medical equipment that can be hard to find in other Swedish stores.
Adlibris and Bokus are two cheap internet bookstores where many English titles can be found as well. Low prices and fast delivery makes them a good alternatives to regular bookstores.
Military Surplus can be bought from a number of different stores like the Active Life Equipment, Armyshopen, Billingedalens Hund och Vapen and Desterrat.se.
For buying camping food I recommend the site Utemat.se that sells a number of different meals, including 24 hour rations from DryTech used by the Swedish and Norweigan Military. Dutch Ovens can be hard to find in Sweden, the company Skeppshult makes one model called “Fältugn” with a capacity of 5,5 liters. Imported Dutch Ovens from Camp Chef can be bought from the internet store Essblads.
Swedish Blogs
There quite a few Swedish Survivalist Blogs including ”Blott Sverige Svenska Preppers har”; one of the biggest available that used to be known under the name “Att leva efter 2012 / Innan det sker”. The blog was down for a couple of months but the author has resumed writing it. There are also some other blogs like my favorite Swedish Survivalist Blog "Preppers". The blog is written in Swedish but Google Translate can provide a quite good translation.
Some of the other Blogs that can be found:
· Den Svenska Argus
· Nisse i Torpet
· Bodis - Peak Oil och dess konsekvenser
· BugOut.se
· Eldöga
· Survla
· Upp 19:15
· Svensk Survivalism
· Swedish Prepper
· Tulum
· Ylven
· Southeast
· Off-grid.se
· Kuslingen
”Cornucupia” Is a good Swedish blog that touches many different subjects like Finance, Peak Oil and Sustainable Development. This is one of the largest Swedish blogs on the web. The author has also written a book called "Midvintermörker".
"Survivalist.se" is a Swedish page that works as a hub for a number of different Swedish Survivialist Blogs and also contains a Wiki with information about survival and crisis preparedness.
Peak Oil
Peak Oil is not a subject that have gotten allot of attention in the Swedish media but there are some interesting reports like ”Efter oljetoppen: Hur bygger vi beredskap när hotbilderna går isär” by Hillevi Helmfrid and Andrew Haden. Björn Forsberg has written some interesting books that combines different views on sustainable development and Peak Oil like “Tillväxtens sista dagar – miljökamp om världsbilder” and the new book "Omställningens Tid. There is also a magazine called "Effekt" that has written some interesting articles about Peak Oil in the first number of the magazine in 2010. The Swedish part of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has an interesting blog called "ASPO Sverige: Om hur oljetoppen kommer att påverka oss"" where information and articles translated to Swedish can be found.
Media Reports
IDG / Jörgen Städje - Att Överleva Med Stil
SVT – Reportage: Om Survivaliströrelsen
SVT - Preppers: En ny folkrörelse i USA - De väntar på katastrofen
Ordfront - Kollapsen kan komma
Outsiders - Inför Katastrofen
Peak Oil
Peak Oil is not a subject that have gotten allot of attention in the Swedish media but there are some interesting reports like ”Efter oljetoppen: Hur bygger vi beredskap när hotbilderna går isär” by Hillevi Helmfrid and Andrew Haden. Björn Forsberg has written some interesting books that combines different views on sustainable development and Peak Oil like “Tillväxtens sista dagar – miljökamp om världsbilder” and the new book "Omställningens Tid. There is also a magazine called "Effekt" that has written some interesting articles about Peak Oil in the first number of the magazine in 2010. The Swedish part of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has an interesting blog called "ASPO Sverige: Om hur oljetoppen kommer att påverka oss"" where information and articles translated to Swedish can be found.
Media Reports
IDG / Jörgen Städje - Att Överleva Med Stil
SVT – Reportage: Om Survivaliströrelsen
SVT - Preppers: En ny folkrörelse i USA - De väntar på katastrofen
Ordfront - Kollapsen kan komma
Outsiders - Inför Katastrofen
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