Gathering Information during Crisis and Survival Situation – HumInt and Interviews

In order to understand the world around us and be able to identify potential threats Intelligence Agencies and other organizations around the world engage in the collection of information through various channels. Today the vast majority of information is gathered by intercepting electronic communications like internet traffic and radio traffic but other technical tools like satellites are also being utilized. New tools like Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV:s) have been introduced and allows operators to collect information without having to risk lives and some models like the Predator and the Reaper can also engage targets directly. UAV:s have initially been used by Military Forces and Intelligence Agencies but are starting to be employed by civilian actors as well.

Information gathered from Human Sources is often referred to as HumInt. The use of HumInt varies between different actors like police, military, intelligence agencies, diplomats and businesses. Sometimes human source are treated in a way that is not in the best interest of the source. This can be the case for police informers and other more extreme cases like the massive killings in the Soviet Union in the 1930:s. Torture and other cruel treatments have been used in totalitarian regimes as a way to collect information but similar methods have also been employed by more and less democratic states. In some cases sources can be used without them being aware that the information their collecting is being used by others.

During Disasters and Crisis Situations information can often be provided by groups like

·         Refugees and Displaced People – what areas do they have firsthand knowledge about and what areas do they only know indirectly?

·         Locals; Taxi Drivers, Bus Drivers, people working in the restaurant business etc

·         Tourists and Travelers

·         Journalists

Interviewing people and asking questions
Needless to say all interviews must be adapted to the situation and context where they take place; it’s one thing to interview a high level official during in the office of this person a calm day and another trying to get information from someone that has escaped after a natural disaster in the middle of the crisis. In this article I use the term “interview”, this can be a formal process but it can also be as simple as meeting someone and starting a conversation in order to get some information. 

There are many problems with collecting information from Human Sources; one of the major problems is what an individual actually knows and how well this actually represents the situation in an area. Refugees can have lived in a small local area in a country and traveled through areas that haven’t been that affected by natural disasters or conflict. If this is the case the information may not represent the entire picture so it is important to understand what time and place specific information comes from. Rumors and contradicting information often circulate so it is important to understand

·         What has the person experienced and seen firsthand

·         What has the person heard through rumors, family members, friends, the Media etc? The more people a piece of information has passed by the larger are the chance it has been altered or misunderstood. It’s also common that specific stories can be told by many people without them actually having experienced it.

This can be particularly problematic after a natural disaster or for refugees after a civil war since the people you encounter may be very random and from different areas and different social backgrounds. Another major problem with getting information from people is that questions shape the answers. This is probably the biggest challenge for interviews; asking the right questions. The more precise the question – the more precise the answer will be. In many cases it can just as important get information about an phenomena or development as it is to know that it not there. The presence of hostile troops in a certain area can be an example.
Sensitive issues are often extra problematic. One example is unpopular activities or phenomena’s. If asked is an unpopular phenomena should be allowed or not more people tend to say it shouldn’t than if the question is formulated so that it asks if an unpopular activity should be forbidden. Words and formulations affect the answers.

It can also be problematic to interview people in a group; in this case the individuals may affect each other and the answers given. If it’s possible it can be a good idea to try to interview people separately instead of doing so in groups.

Refugees can expect to get advantages if they provide the information someone wants to hear and thereby shape their answers accordingly if they can notice a theme in the questions that is being asked. This can also be a problem for interrogators; if the subject start realizing what the interrogators is looking for they can adjust their answers accordingly.

If asking a person a serious of question regarding what they have experienced or regarding the situation in a particular area it can be a good idea to also ask follow up question like if the informant have something to add that you haven’t asked about. This opens up the possibility to get vital information that falls outside your own expectations and increase the chance you will receive unexpected answers. 

In some cases information from people can be collected face-to-face but it’s also possible to collect information using cell phones, satellite phones, text messages, radio, e-mail, written letters and other tools like social networks. Many Intelligence Agencies and Crisis Management Organizations use their own platforms in order to share and distribute information; using specific groups in Social Networks can an alternative way for people without these resources to use web-based solution to share information but also provide the option of sharing pictures and video. For sensitive information encryption can be used to protect the information or it can be passed on using method like dead drops.

Making Contact

The first step of being able to interview someone for information is making contact; if you are interviewing someone I suggest that you introduce yourself and tell them how you are and why you would like to know more about what’s going on. Often it can be advantage being introduced by someone the person you would like to interview knows if this sis possible. If you’re just asking as private individual or if you’re working for an organization managing a crisis let this be known. Be friendly and polite.

The scene of the interview

One important aspect when conducting an interview is where the interview or talk takes place. It can be good if you can find some place where you can talk privately since the presence of many people can affect the answers. The nature of the situation affects how important this is; it is one thing to interview someone after a natural disaster and very different thing to interview someone in a collapsed state if the interviewed person fears for their life. Your own appearance is also important; how you are dressed and behave can affect if someone choose to give you information or not.

Problems with conducting interviews

There are many forms of problems than limit the amount of information that can be collected from human sources; one common barrier is language. This was a big problem for Intelligence Agencies after the terrorist attacks after 9/11 when many agencies had a limited or no capacity at all to handle this problem; a problem that was also enhanced by the need for secrecy and problems with recruiting new personnel. Language can also be problematic since it might require a great knowledge in order to detect the exact meaning of phrases; especially if there are differences in culture as well.

When asking questions one thing to look out for is that many people often tend to agree with statements rather than disagree. It can therefore be wise to avoid leading questions when you ask a person if they agree with a statement or not; by using more open questions this problem can be reduced.

Another common problem is how the language is used; it can be difficult to understand a question asked in your own language if question is asked in way that makes it hard to understand what the question really is about. This includes specific terms used in professions, slang and “big” words. Another problem can be is if you use vague words when the meaning of the word can be interpreted in many ways. One way to minimize this problem is to test questions on a friend or someone you know before you use them.

·        Try to keep the questions short and precise

·        Take your time and don’t stress through and interview; it’s important to you allow the person you’re talking to finish their answers. Also avoid asking about two separate issues in the same question; it makes it hard for the interviewed person to remember the question. One question at a time.

Finding and getting access to translators is a problematic process and even if you can get a translator it’s hard to know if the translation is correct and if some points are being lost in translation. Another problem is the potential loyalty of the translators; especially for military forces working in locations they are not familiar with.

After an Interview

When you have completed an interview it can be a good idea to ask for the person’s name and contact information if you would have to get in contact with them. It can be hard time to remember all the details of an interview afterwards so when you completed an interview write down the details; if you feel that you have to write down details under the interview or record the conversation I suggest that you ask for the persons permission to do so; especially when it comes to recordings. If you record an conversation with someone without their knowledge it is serious breach of trust; especially if the person you interview discover this during or after the interview.

·         When did the interview take place and where did it take place?

·         How did you interview? If you don’t know the name what other characteristics did you notice; age, hair, clothing etc.

·         What did you ask and what did you learn?

·         Personal impressions

Collapsed States and Civil Wars

In collapsed states and civil wars some of the refugees may be fleeing for political reasons, away from ethnic cleansing or from precaution; the information you collect could possibly put someone’s life at risk if it falls into the wrong hands so make sure that you do all you can in order to protect it and the source you collect it from.

In conflict zones and collapsed states information can sometimes be acquired from

·         Different types of Militias and Resistance Groups in the country

·         Non Government Organizations (NGO:s) working in the area

·         UN Officials or Peacekeeping Forces working in the area

·         Political Groups in exile

·         Maintenance and service personnel

Source Criticism         

One question that can be very hard to determine is if a Human Source is reliable? Some aspects that can be worth thinking about is

·         Loyalty – How is the source and what motivates the source to share information?

·         What type of Knowledge, Experience and Education does the source have?

·         Psychological traits

Some human sources can prove to have great worth; some of the most important sources of information are often people; especially when it comes to understanding the motivation, goals and plans of an adversary since this information can be impossible to gather by other means.  Human sources like individual located in the top of other intelligence agencies can be ultimate sources; a singular source of this nature can often be more valuable than all other sources combined. The secrecy surrounding intelligence agencies often makes the best sources the one that is hardest to get access to since information is shared on a need to know basis and low level personnel might not even know why they perform certain tasks.  

During Crisis Situations it’s important to also take the psychological reactions of individuals into consideration; during high stress situations affects perception in different way, something that can often be referred to as tunnel vision; and it can be a factor even for experienced personal within the police or military. The change of perception does not only have to be what a person focus on; it can also be other things like the sense of time meaning that an event may have passed slower or faster than an individual think it did and they might have missed details that would have been easy to detect for a neutral observer. 
                     

Disinformation

For Intelligence Agencies and Military Actors one potential problem is disinformation. Disinformation can be used to gain advantages in military operations both on a tactical but also on a strategic level. Disinformation can be false information that is being planted or true information that has been altered to create confusion or make an adversary draw incorrect assumptions. The importance of disinformation and deception is nothing new; this is one of the central parts of Sun Tzu:s “The Art of War”. In the Soviet Union this was known as Maskirovka; something that was being utilized on all levels in order to cloak intentions and capability. Disinformation can often be particularly effective if used to reinforce the existing perception of an adversary.


Disinformation can be used to

·         Make an adversary draw the wrong conclusions regarding the capacity of an individual, military force or business.

·         Mask the intentions of an actor

·         Delay actions of an adversary

·         Create confusion or fear

·         Make it harder for an adversary to regain the initiative 

These factors are often more important to actors that are inferior to their counterparts since it can allow the focus their efforts on specific areas. One problem with disinformation campaigns is that the information can get a life of its own; one example of this is when KGB spread the rumor that the HIV/AIDS virus was invented as biological weapon in US. Even if proof that the disease could not have been produced by the US and that it existed before the belief spread still exists among some parts of the public around the world.

Lie Spotting

Knowing if what somebody tells us is the truth or not is not easy. Most adults can only detect a lie around 50% of the time; almost the same rate as if you are simply flipping a coin. If you’re working in a Business it can be vital for detecting fraud and for Intelligence Agencies to detect disinformation.


During Crisis and Disaster Situations its can be especially hard trying to verify information so your own assessment becomes extra important. Detecting lies simply by looking for signs in the person you’re talking to is often known as Lie Spotting. Pamela Mayer is one of those how have worked to develop this field and her research and tips can be found her book “Lie Spotting: Proven Techniques to Detect Deception”. You also view Mayer on TED where she had a talk about her research.

Conclusion

In this article I have discussed some of the aspects related to gathering information from Human Sources. There are of course much more that could be discussed regarding this field but I hope that the reader has gotten some new ideas and perspectives that can be of help.


Other Articles
Risk Assessments
The Mediain Crisis and Survival Situations

It’s Not Over Till It’s Over

The World is Coming to an End. Things are getting darker and darker every day and soon something is going to happen. It will be swift and it will be hard. This is the basic story presented by most people in the Survivalist and Prepper movement. Everyone that is involved in the movement see this type of threads and post about all the time. Predictions made about specific dates, events and forecast. It’s happening soon – It is time to step up your efforts before it’s too late.

In this article I will challenges some of the perceptions within the movement and discuss what we can do broaden our perspectives. It will take you around two hours to look through the material presented in this article but it will most likely increase your understanding of the world and give you some new perspectives.

The Survivalist Narrative
Like I wrote before the story that is most often presented within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement is the story of the Sudden collapse. The World As We Know It will fall apart basically over night and only the well prepared or lucky will make it through. This is the scenario presented in two of the most popular fictional books often recommended; “Patriots” by James Wesley Rawles and “One Second After” by William R Forstchen. In the first book the US economy breaks down, violence, collapse and a foreign invasion follows. In the second book the US gets hit by a High Altitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP) that takes out all modern electronics from computer, to cell phones, modern cars and the electrical grid resulting in the death of a majority of the US population and a following invasion.

Our Perception of the World and Cognitive Bias
Richard Heuer is Psychologist that used to work for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In the book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Heuer discuss many of the challenges the people working within the Intelligence Community face and why the often make incorrect analysis. One of the things that affect people the most is that we see what we expect to see and that different situations also affect how we perceive the world. During nighttime people are more likely to hear foot steps behind them when walking home compared to during daytime. Another critical aspect identified by Heuer is that when we have created mindset about something it resists change, no matter if there is strong evidence that suggests otherwise, new information that does not fit our first impression is changed so that it fits the original analysis or disregarded. This is something that every person does even if it is not a conscious process.

Two Stories about The World
A Good Story
So how does one change an incorrect assumption about the world? This is not an easy task. One method that can be used is to research facts, if the fact does not support our perception we might simply be incorrect. But to collect and display statistics in a way that makes it possible to understand and put in relation to other facts is not easy.

One person that has done is Hans Rosling. Rosling is a professor in public health and have been working as a doctor in countries that does not have many of the resources that hospitals in rich countries have. Rosling have the help of other created a graphical interface that allows statically information to be used to show the change within different countries over time when it comes to field like life expectancy, income, fertility rate and child mortality. This may not sound very interesting at first but I suggest that check out the video "New Insights on Povery". Its 20 min long, it will blow your mind and shake the perspective that you have of the world. Most people may assume that politicians and other top people within the business world has a good understanding of the world around them, but many of the leading people in the world has approached Rosling after he’s talks and said that they had no idea about facts that he just showed them.

A Troubling Story
If you have watched the video with Rosling you might be in quite a good mood. In 2009 the French filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand made one of the most troubling movies about the contemporary world. In the movie “Home” multiple questions like the Population Explosion, Peak Oil, The Depletion of Non Renewable Resources and Environmental Destruction is discussed. The movie was not made to generate profit and can be seen by anyone for free on YouTube. This is a movie that I really recommend for everyone.

"Home" is not a unique movie, many similar productions have been made the last years like the National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond, “Blind Spot” and “The End Of Suburbia” just to name a few. The stories are not identical but the message that they present are very similar; The world is facing an unprecedented crisis and we are not even aware of what’s coming.

So Where Does These Two Stories Leave Us?
After seeing these two videos you have been presented with two versions of the world both based upon facts. They are radically different, so is does any of these two perspectives present a correct perspective of the world today? My answer would be that both perspectives are correct. Both stories are grounded in fact. The message of the two perspectives are almost the exact opposite from the other and this is a good example of why it is so difficult to understand the complexity of the world even if one has some of the facts available.

What Should You Take With You From This Article?
So what would I like the reader to take with them from this article? First of all that the world is not only a set of facts, how we perceive these facts shapes our perception of the world. As Preppers and Survivalist the stories that we are told within the movement makes it easy to disregard information that does not support these stories. Many also take the information presented when a major crisis occurs as a sign that the “Big One” is here. This is something that takes place every time a new threat is presented, no matter if it is the swine flu, an economic crisis or most recently the events surrounding the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan. Positive information is disregarded and negative information reinforced by many.

Most people that are not Survivalist and Preppers on the other hand often totally disregards information suggesting that major disasters or accidents may occur no matter what information that is presented to them. This can make it a very frustrating process discussing crisis preparedness, prepping or survivalism with anyone that does not share this perspective since the two people do not share the same perception of the world and will not easily change this perception no matter what facts they are shown.

So why did I write this article? I share many of the concerns that the can be found within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement, but I believe that it is important to always look at the entire picture and not just look for information that supports the conclusions that one has already made. An analysis based upon only positive or negative information will not be as accurate analysis than an analysis that also incorporates contradicting information. The other aspect is hope. Many discuss potential coming problems like they have already happened, like there is no possibility that we can overcome the problems that we face. People that give up on hope in a survival situation often die as a result. With skills, health, knowledge and the will to survive people have made it through situations that have been more or less hopeless. I believe that it is critical that one train too not only see the bad in every situations but also the positive sides and possibilities presented. This can also allow one to find solutions for problems before they manifest, instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to manifest.

Peace building and State building missions

Modern Civil Wars are the most common form of human conflict. These conflicts have accrued in a large number of countries and have caused an enormous amount of death and suffering. This kind of conflict separates different groups from each other trough excluding identity politics and new kind of economy that finance the conflicts actors emerge. The government institutions are often destroyed and functions like police, military and healthcare often collapses. Other basic functions such as electricity, water and communication often become damaged during a conflict and become unreliable or seize to function. With no police or military to provide security groups are forced to bond together in order to get some security.

Traditional Peacekeeping
The traditional peacekeeping mission focuses on that a neutral group monitors a seize fire between different party and acts like a security to prevent that the fighting reemerge. This can be done by patrolling border, creating demobilized zones and monitoring troop movements. His can help the parties to trust each other and create a balance needed for future efforts. This kind of missions is easier to implement if the parties of the conflicts are forces from different nations.

State building Missions
The response the new kind of civil wars that have emerged have been a much more complex response than the traditional peacekeeping missions seen before. The new wars basically mean that nations collapse. In these scenarios there is very little security for the population, no military and no working government. Under these conditions the peace building force is often sent in to the conflict zone without the consent of the parties. Additional tasks to the traditional aspects of peace building additional tasks is undertaken such as
* Policing
* Delivery of humanitarian assistance
* Disarmament and demobilization
* Rebuilding infrastructure

The most complicated aspects of these missions is the reconstruction of government and the institutions of the countries such as police, military, juridical system and other basic government functions that’s taken for granted in most countries. In order to create a stabile new institutions democratic institutions and elections is often a central part of the process. One aspect of state building missions that have gotten a lot of attention the last years is the making of constitutions. The idea is that by creating a constitution as the foundation for how a country should be governed a lot of the problems that civil wars present can be bridged. One of the leading experts in this field is Arend Lijphart. Some of the central ascpects that Lijphart identifies is:
• Cross community executive power sharing
• Proportionality rules throughout the government and public sectors
• Community self-government – or autonomy – and equality in cultural life
• Veto right for minorities

State building missions have taken place in Iraq since 2003, Afghanistan since 2001, Bosnia since the 1990:s and in East Timor to name a few examples. In none of these cases has the UN or the peace building forces been able to make complete withdrawal.

There isn’t much literature on how peace building should be managed in the field, however the book “Peace building a field guide” by Luc Reychler and Thania Paffenholz contains some practical advice on various subject for those how are interested.

Problems with state building missions
In modern civil wars the actors have to finance their own activities, this is often done through harvesting natural resources, trafficking with women and drugs, kidnapping and other activates. In order to get anything done in these areas the peace keeping forces and other actors like humanitarian Non Governmental Organizations have to make deals with the groups controlling the country in order to get help to the people that they are trying to reach. The actors in the civil war can also gain money by providing prostitutes to soldiers and aid workers in the area. This means that the actors that trying to build peace can end up contributing to the finances of militias, rebel groups and criminal networks.

The interaction with Private Military Companies and Private Security Companies
These kinds of conflicts present an extreme challenge for the peacekeeping forces. In order to have some protection NGO:s often contract PMC and PSC to provide security for their personnel within the area. These are also often the case for other corporation that’s active within these areas. Other tasks involve training police and military forces, providing logistics for the peacekeeping force etc. How many contractors that operates in these areas is very hard to estimate, in Iraq the figures vary between 30.000 up to 180.000, in other words more contractors than US regular troops. The later number is mentioned by Peter W Singer in the article “Can’t Win With ‘Em, Can’t Go To War Without ‘Em: Private Military Contractors and Counterinsurgency” from 2007. My personal guess is that the real number lies somewhere in between. The central aspect is that this type of missions has become a major market for these companies.

Freedom in the World
The American organization Freedomhouse follows the development around the world and rates all countries depending on how free they are. They release reports every year that can be accessed through their homepage. This is a good resource if you want to get a picture of how the situation is in a country before you leave and how the situation has changed from the previous years. You can find the site at www.freedomhouse.org.

Analysis
The civil wars of today’s world can be described as the collapse of societies. The response from the international community in some of these cases has been an attempt to recreate these states or build new ones: state building missions. This has proven to be extremely costly projects that haven’t been successful enough for the state building parties to leave Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia or East Timor. This doesn’t mean that these kinds of projects are all doomed to fail, but there is no universal concept that can fix these problems in a short period of time. When the international troops are present in Iraq or Afghanistan they can hold the hostile parties at bay. But the parties adjust their tactics to ambushes, improvised explosive devices, mines, bombing, suicide bombings and other tactics that is very difficult to handle. These missions is extremely complex and the task to build a new nation is extremely difficult both when it comes to cost of money but also when it comes to the suffering of the people working and living within these areas. So when you hear experts talk about this subject know that it’s never easy and real progress will take a very long time to accomplish.

The Media In A Crisis Or Survival Situation.

The Media is one of the most potent sources of intelligence and early warning in the world that works 24 hours every day 7 days a week. But the Media often gets information wrong and can help blow the threat of different crisis out of proportion like in the case of the H1N1 Pandemic 2009. This is an attempt to give to tips and guidelines about how the Media works and how you can use it in a crisis or survival situation.

Electronic Communications
If the electrical grid may go off line your normal line of communications through TV and the internet may be disrupted. In that case a battery power radio with dynamo, a citizen band radio, radio scanner, short wave radio or HAM radio is a good tool of receiving information. If you’re using a radio the receive information: write down a log for the messages that you’re receiving and what time the information was received.

The journalists are the intelligence officers of the Media that helps collect news and report about events. In general journalists don’t have that much specialist knowledge but know little about almost everything. This means that they can often have too little knowledge about a particular event to understand what is really important and this may make the report vague and imprecise. This is also an effect of journalists working under an enormous time pressure, especially during a crisis. This time pressure means that there is very little time to check facts and the risk that journalists misunderstand something is significant. This can often result in a situation where different new media reports may be contradict other reports. Even if there are journalists how’s just searching for a scope or scandal, most of them are honest and serious people.

What is News?
Journalists and the Media gets information about thousands of events everyday but can of course not cover everything that happens so they have to choose what events to cover. Normally the information that gets broadcast in the media as news is something that deviates from what’s normal. Events that represent good and evil, life and death, black and white and other extremes also attract attention. The persons how get interviewed often represent the extreme cases, in a crisis situation the people how are hit the worst and live under the most horrible circumstances makes the most interesting people to cover. Needless to say, bad news is good news, so when the shit hits the fan it gets the attention from the media. If a news channel does not present the most interesting news, if they are not the biggest, fastest and first with ones to report about it, they will eventually be history.

So when a crisis happens the media tries to describe what has happened, tell the stories from the scene, warn and inform the public. The personal dimension of the crisis becomes an important part, to give the crisis a human face. The news media bring in experts to give their opinion and background to the event; they also start looking for what went wrong and creates debate over what’s happened. After the crisis is over the question of how this could happen and how should be held accountable starts.

The Importance Of Your Own Knowledge
Normally the coverage of an event starts with the dramatic pictures and interviews with government and local officials with the demand for answers, there is often some time before the background and fact start coming in. This is the crucial part for you: You must have knowledge about different kind of scenarios like natural disasters, industrial accidents, man-made disasters, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. You must also know your local crisis management system and what local resources are available and so that you can make a good assessment when the first information about the crisis starts to come in. This way you can take the appropriate response.

Some Of The Mistakes That Government Officials Make During A Crisis Situation
During a crisis situation the way the government officials informs the public about the crisis is very important. The first and most important thing is to admit when there is a problem. Getting down on the public’s level, taking responsibility, showing compassion and understanding of the consequences is important in order gain the trust from the public. And trust isn’t given to anyone, it’s earned. Indicating possible solutions to the crisis and ways out of the crisis is also important. If they don’t know what really is happening the best thing is to say exactly that: That they don’t have the information right now, lying for the media is often a grave mistake that may cause other problems to get investigated even further. Journalists (and poker players) are often expert of reading tells that indicates that people are lying.

Tips If You Ever Find Yourself In A Situation When You Get Interviewed
In interviews it’s a common technique for either journalists or other professionals like police officers to ask a question wait for the answer and not saying anything after the answers been given. This is a situation that most people find very uncomfortable. The result is often that the person continues to give information, often information that isn’t related to the question asked. If you ever find you’re self in this kind of situation, don’t be afraid of the silence, just wait for the other party to resume the questions.

• Whenever you find yourself in a situation when you get interviewed, take your time and think before you answer questions. Don’t let the interviewer stress you.
• Talk about your own area and speculate about thing you don’t know, lie or offer your own theories.
• Never talk with a reporter “Off the record”, there is no such thing.
• NEVER use the phrase “No comments”.

Keep your temper under control, if you get angry or hostile it makes “good” news. Before the interview starts be aware of your appearance, small details like a stain on a shirt may give the people viewing a negative impression of you. You only have one chance to make a good first impression. If you are having an interview it can be good to put a time limit before the interview, explain that you only have a limited amount of time for questions, this is especially important at press conferences. If you are in a situation where you inform the public during a crisis remember that what you say to others in different situations can be interpreted as official information.

Rumors, Propaganda and Disinformation
Rumors are a common problem in crisis situation: Incomplete information may be misunderstood by the media or the public and rumors may start to circulate. Rumors may in the worst case cause people to act irrationally and put themselves in harm’s way. In an antagonistic attack false information may be spread to increase fear or with the objective to make the job of the first responders more difficult. During armed conflict propaganda and disinformation are often used as a tool to mislead the enemy and weaken the resistance of the opponent.

The media makes an excellent tool for getting an early warning but there are other very important sources of information. Your social network is one of them. The bigger your social network is the more likely you are to know someone how might have important information and the more likely you are to get some assistance if you ever need it. Just remember: The doors swings both ways.

Natural Components Of Your Network
• Your family and relatives
• Your partner
• Your neighbors
• Your friends
• People from work

It can also be good to get to know your local politicians, people from the Police, Fire Department, The Military, FEMA, Doctors and other medical personnel, The Red Cross, Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) and local Journalists just to name a few.

Keep names, phone numbers, addresses, birthdays and other information in a paper book, a digital back-up on your computer and mobile is also good. Keep in touch with people you know, send them post cards, keep in touch over the internet and e-mails, write letters, invite them over for dinner or a barbeque, go camping, fishing, hunting or hiking with them. Get to know them and make sure that they get to know you. Your social network is an important aspect in all areas of life, no matter if it’s a crisis situation, survival situation or if you’re looking for a job or advice.

What is a crisis situation?

What is a crisis situation?
There is often a lot of talk in the media and other forums about different kind of crisis. A crisis is a situation when something bad has happened. There is a lot different types of crisis, some examples are

* The Chicago Fire of 1871
* The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire
* The Mississippi flood of 1927
* The attack on Pearl Harbor 1941
* The Cuban Missile Crisis 1962
* The Three Mile Island accident 1979
* The volcanic eruption at Mount St Helens 1980
* The industrial accident in Bhopal, India 1984.
* The meltdown at Chernobyl 1986
* The terror attacks in New York and Washington 9/11 2001
* The train bombings on march 11 2004 in Madrid
* The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
* The bombings i London 7/7 2005
* Hurricane Katrina 2005
* The Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in England
* The current economic crisis and the H1N1 Pandemic

Different persons have different definitions of what a crisis really is. In the book “The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership under Pressure” the authors define a crisis with from three key components. The first key component is urgency. When a crisis accrues time is short. It’s important to act fast; it may be a question of life and death. The second component is threat. The threat may be to lives and health of people, physical objects like homes and property or other values like belief in the system or economic values. The third component is uncertainty. When a crisis happens there is always uncertainty about what’s has happened, what will the consequences be and how the crisis should be dealt with (Boin, Hart,, Stern & Sundelius 2007: 2-4).

This is the kind of events that this blog will try to focus on. The main focus will be on prevention, early warning, risk assessment, intelligence analysis, crisis management, crisis preparedness, survival and recovery.

Reference:
Boin, Arjen; Hart Paul; Stern, Eric & Sundelius Bengt (2007) The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership under Pressure, New York: Cambridge University Press