Gathering Information during Crisis and Survival Situation – HumInt and Interviews

In order to understand the world around us and be able to identify potential threats Intelligence Agencies and other organizations around the world engage in the collection of information through various channels. Today the vast majority of information is gathered by intercepting electronic communications like internet traffic and radio traffic but other technical tools like satellites are also being utilized. New tools like Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV:s) have been introduced and allows operators to collect information without having to risk lives and some models like the Predator and the Reaper can also engage targets directly. UAV:s have initially been used by Military Forces and Intelligence Agencies but are starting to be employed by civilian actors as well.

Information gathered from Human Sources is often referred to as HumInt. The use of HumInt varies between different actors like police, military, intelligence agencies, diplomats and businesses. Sometimes human source are treated in a way that is not in the best interest of the source. This can be the case for police informers and other more extreme cases like the massive killings in the Soviet Union in the 1930:s. Torture and other cruel treatments have been used in totalitarian regimes as a way to collect information but similar methods have also been employed by more and less democratic states. In some cases sources can be used without them being aware that the information their collecting is being used by others.

During Disasters and Crisis Situations information can often be provided by groups like

·         Refugees and Displaced People – what areas do they have firsthand knowledge about and what areas do they only know indirectly?

·         Locals; Taxi Drivers, Bus Drivers, people working in the restaurant business etc

·         Tourists and Travelers

·         Journalists

Interviewing people and asking questions
Needless to say all interviews must be adapted to the situation and context where they take place; it’s one thing to interview a high level official during in the office of this person a calm day and another trying to get information from someone that has escaped after a natural disaster in the middle of the crisis. In this article I use the term “interview”, this can be a formal process but it can also be as simple as meeting someone and starting a conversation in order to get some information. 

There are many problems with collecting information from Human Sources; one of the major problems is what an individual actually knows and how well this actually represents the situation in an area. Refugees can have lived in a small local area in a country and traveled through areas that haven’t been that affected by natural disasters or conflict. If this is the case the information may not represent the entire picture so it is important to understand what time and place specific information comes from. Rumors and contradicting information often circulate so it is important to understand

·         What has the person experienced and seen firsthand

·         What has the person heard through rumors, family members, friends, the Media etc? The more people a piece of information has passed by the larger are the chance it has been altered or misunderstood. It’s also common that specific stories can be told by many people without them actually having experienced it.

This can be particularly problematic after a natural disaster or for refugees after a civil war since the people you encounter may be very random and from different areas and different social backgrounds. Another major problem with getting information from people is that questions shape the answers. This is probably the biggest challenge for interviews; asking the right questions. The more precise the question – the more precise the answer will be. In many cases it can just as important get information about an phenomena or development as it is to know that it not there. The presence of hostile troops in a certain area can be an example.
Sensitive issues are often extra problematic. One example is unpopular activities or phenomena’s. If asked is an unpopular phenomena should be allowed or not more people tend to say it shouldn’t than if the question is formulated so that it asks if an unpopular activity should be forbidden. Words and formulations affect the answers.

It can also be problematic to interview people in a group; in this case the individuals may affect each other and the answers given. If it’s possible it can be a good idea to try to interview people separately instead of doing so in groups.

Refugees can expect to get advantages if they provide the information someone wants to hear and thereby shape their answers accordingly if they can notice a theme in the questions that is being asked. This can also be a problem for interrogators; if the subject start realizing what the interrogators is looking for they can adjust their answers accordingly.

If asking a person a serious of question regarding what they have experienced or regarding the situation in a particular area it can be a good idea to also ask follow up question like if the informant have something to add that you haven’t asked about. This opens up the possibility to get vital information that falls outside your own expectations and increase the chance you will receive unexpected answers. 

In some cases information from people can be collected face-to-face but it’s also possible to collect information using cell phones, satellite phones, text messages, radio, e-mail, written letters and other tools like social networks. Many Intelligence Agencies and Crisis Management Organizations use their own platforms in order to share and distribute information; using specific groups in Social Networks can an alternative way for people without these resources to use web-based solution to share information but also provide the option of sharing pictures and video. For sensitive information encryption can be used to protect the information or it can be passed on using method like dead drops.

Making Contact

The first step of being able to interview someone for information is making contact; if you are interviewing someone I suggest that you introduce yourself and tell them how you are and why you would like to know more about what’s going on. Often it can be advantage being introduced by someone the person you would like to interview knows if this sis possible. If you’re just asking as private individual or if you’re working for an organization managing a crisis let this be known. Be friendly and polite.

The scene of the interview

One important aspect when conducting an interview is where the interview or talk takes place. It can be good if you can find some place where you can talk privately since the presence of many people can affect the answers. The nature of the situation affects how important this is; it is one thing to interview someone after a natural disaster and very different thing to interview someone in a collapsed state if the interviewed person fears for their life. Your own appearance is also important; how you are dressed and behave can affect if someone choose to give you information or not.

Problems with conducting interviews

There are many forms of problems than limit the amount of information that can be collected from human sources; one common barrier is language. This was a big problem for Intelligence Agencies after the terrorist attacks after 9/11 when many agencies had a limited or no capacity at all to handle this problem; a problem that was also enhanced by the need for secrecy and problems with recruiting new personnel. Language can also be problematic since it might require a great knowledge in order to detect the exact meaning of phrases; especially if there are differences in culture as well.

When asking questions one thing to look out for is that many people often tend to agree with statements rather than disagree. It can therefore be wise to avoid leading questions when you ask a person if they agree with a statement or not; by using more open questions this problem can be reduced.

Another common problem is how the language is used; it can be difficult to understand a question asked in your own language if question is asked in way that makes it hard to understand what the question really is about. This includes specific terms used in professions, slang and “big” words. Another problem can be is if you use vague words when the meaning of the word can be interpreted in many ways. One way to minimize this problem is to test questions on a friend or someone you know before you use them.

·        Try to keep the questions short and precise

·        Take your time and don’t stress through and interview; it’s important to you allow the person you’re talking to finish their answers. Also avoid asking about two separate issues in the same question; it makes it hard for the interviewed person to remember the question. One question at a time.

Finding and getting access to translators is a problematic process and even if you can get a translator it’s hard to know if the translation is correct and if some points are being lost in translation. Another problem is the potential loyalty of the translators; especially for military forces working in locations they are not familiar with.

After an Interview

When you have completed an interview it can be a good idea to ask for the person’s name and contact information if you would have to get in contact with them. It can be hard time to remember all the details of an interview afterwards so when you completed an interview write down the details; if you feel that you have to write down details under the interview or record the conversation I suggest that you ask for the persons permission to do so; especially when it comes to recordings. If you record an conversation with someone without their knowledge it is serious breach of trust; especially if the person you interview discover this during or after the interview.

·         When did the interview take place and where did it take place?

·         How did you interview? If you don’t know the name what other characteristics did you notice; age, hair, clothing etc.

·         What did you ask and what did you learn?

·         Personal impressions

Collapsed States and Civil Wars

In collapsed states and civil wars some of the refugees may be fleeing for political reasons, away from ethnic cleansing or from precaution; the information you collect could possibly put someone’s life at risk if it falls into the wrong hands so make sure that you do all you can in order to protect it and the source you collect it from.

In conflict zones and collapsed states information can sometimes be acquired from

·         Different types of Militias and Resistance Groups in the country

·         Non Government Organizations (NGO:s) working in the area

·         UN Officials or Peacekeeping Forces working in the area

·         Political Groups in exile

·         Maintenance and service personnel

Source Criticism         

One question that can be very hard to determine is if a Human Source is reliable? Some aspects that can be worth thinking about is

·         Loyalty – How is the source and what motivates the source to share information?

·         What type of Knowledge, Experience and Education does the source have?

·         Psychological traits

Some human sources can prove to have great worth; some of the most important sources of information are often people; especially when it comes to understanding the motivation, goals and plans of an adversary since this information can be impossible to gather by other means.  Human sources like individual located in the top of other intelligence agencies can be ultimate sources; a singular source of this nature can often be more valuable than all other sources combined. The secrecy surrounding intelligence agencies often makes the best sources the one that is hardest to get access to since information is shared on a need to know basis and low level personnel might not even know why they perform certain tasks.  

During Crisis Situations it’s important to also take the psychological reactions of individuals into consideration; during high stress situations affects perception in different way, something that can often be referred to as tunnel vision; and it can be a factor even for experienced personal within the police or military. The change of perception does not only have to be what a person focus on; it can also be other things like the sense of time meaning that an event may have passed slower or faster than an individual think it did and they might have missed details that would have been easy to detect for a neutral observer. 
                     

Disinformation

For Intelligence Agencies and Military Actors one potential problem is disinformation. Disinformation can be used to gain advantages in military operations both on a tactical but also on a strategic level. Disinformation can be false information that is being planted or true information that has been altered to create confusion or make an adversary draw incorrect assumptions. The importance of disinformation and deception is nothing new; this is one of the central parts of Sun Tzu:s “The Art of War”. In the Soviet Union this was known as Maskirovka; something that was being utilized on all levels in order to cloak intentions and capability. Disinformation can often be particularly effective if used to reinforce the existing perception of an adversary.


Disinformation can be used to

·         Make an adversary draw the wrong conclusions regarding the capacity of an individual, military force or business.

·         Mask the intentions of an actor

·         Delay actions of an adversary

·         Create confusion or fear

·         Make it harder for an adversary to regain the initiative 

These factors are often more important to actors that are inferior to their counterparts since it can allow the focus their efforts on specific areas. One problem with disinformation campaigns is that the information can get a life of its own; one example of this is when KGB spread the rumor that the HIV/AIDS virus was invented as biological weapon in US. Even if proof that the disease could not have been produced by the US and that it existed before the belief spread still exists among some parts of the public around the world.

Lie Spotting

Knowing if what somebody tells us is the truth or not is not easy. Most adults can only detect a lie around 50% of the time; almost the same rate as if you are simply flipping a coin. If you’re working in a Business it can be vital for detecting fraud and for Intelligence Agencies to detect disinformation.


During Crisis and Disaster Situations its can be especially hard trying to verify information so your own assessment becomes extra important. Detecting lies simply by looking for signs in the person you’re talking to is often known as Lie Spotting. Pamela Mayer is one of those how have worked to develop this field and her research and tips can be found her book “Lie Spotting: Proven Techniques to Detect Deception”. You also view Mayer on TED where she had a talk about her research.

Conclusion

In this article I have discussed some of the aspects related to gathering information from Human Sources. There are of course much more that could be discussed regarding this field but I hope that the reader has gotten some new ideas and perspectives that can be of help.


Other Articles
Risk Assessments
The Mediain Crisis and Survival Situations

Analyzing Risks

Two of the most popular acronyms within the Prepper and Survivalist Community are SHTF (Shit Hit The Fan) and TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It). What these acronyms truly represent is a matter that varies heavily depending on how that does the classification. Some people can use SHTF as way to describe that they lost their job while other use it to describe a full scale breakdown of modern society. In this article I will take an alternative look at this subject and try to give some alternative suggestions concerning how one can approach and think about different type of Disasters and Risks. This article is also intended to be a complement to the article about Risk Assessments intended to provide a more comprehensive framework for assessing the potential impacts of various threats.

1.) The Scale
Disasters comes in all forms and sizes; from large scale natural disasters like Earthquakes that may affect tens thousands of people to smaller disasters like automobile accidents that may just involve a few people. A disaster may just involve a few persons a personal level, it may affect a local community, a region, an entire nation or it may affect the world on a global level.

2.) Consequences
Disasters may affect people in many kinds of ways; one of the obvious results is Casualties in the form of dead and wounded. Disasters can also affect the physical and mental health of those affected; and in many cases like the nuclear power plant meltdowns in Chernobyl and Fukushima it can be very difficult to establish exactly what the long term effects for the affected will be.

Infrastructure is something that can often be affected resulting in a situation when roads, the electrical grid, gas pipes, electronic communications, water pipes and sewage maybe interrupted. This can be the case during wars and natural disasters but there are also other types of disasters like pandemics that may not affect infrastructure.

Property and Economical Loses is often a major problem when people can lose their homes, savings, businesses and jobs. People can get injured or disabled resulting in additional long term economical los.

Disasters often have Other direct consequences for politics especially in the form of blame games and assigning guilt. This can result in everything from political resignations, or new institutions like the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

This is just a few examples of what type of consequences a disaster can have; all disasters are unique and have their own specific effects. The result of these effects is not only the disaster itself, it is also an effect by the of buildings in case of earthquakes, topography, what economical resources that is available, the resources and training of first responders and the population density of an affected area just to name a few possible factors.

3.) The Perspective of Time
Fast or Slow Onset
Disasters are often viewed as fast dramatic events like the Haiti Earthquake or The Nuclear attacks against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This is however not the case in all types of disasters, some disasters slowly gain momentum like Famine and Starvation. Two examples of other potential slow onset threats are Peak Oil and Global Warming. Other type of threats like Hurricanes can be detected days before they strike and thereby allowing an Early Warning.

The Duration
Some disasters like Earthquakes and Tsunamis can cause an enormous amount of damage during a very short period of time and then be over. Other type of disasters like Famine or an Economical Depression may last for months, years or even decades.

For individuals this aspect can indicate how much food or water storage that may appropriate for different disasters, for organizations that work with Crisis Management this can provide an insight into to what type of endurance the organization must be able to poses in order to manage emergencies with an extended duration including aspects like the rotation of man-power and how much supplies that must be available.

4.) The Origin of the Disasters: Man-Made or Natural Disasters
One very popular way to describe disasters is to split them into two categories; Man-Made and Natural Disasters. Natural Disasters involve all type of natural phenomena like Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, Wild Fires, Hurricanes and Tornadoes. Man-Made disasters refer to events like Human Conflict, War, Terrorism and large scale accidents and failure of technical systems. This distinction between the origins is not perfect; many researchers emphasize that the Impact of Natural Disasters is a direct consequence of building standards, population density, access to Early Warning Systems to name a few factors. This is especially clear when it comes to number of dead in high-income countries and low income countries in various disasters. Natural Disasters can also trigger the failure of Man-Made systems like case of the Fukushima Nuclear Power plant Disaster.

Conclusion
This article is intended to provide some support for people how want to get a better understanding of Risks and Threats they may face. In this article I have discussed some of aspects of disasters but it’s important to understand that every disaster and risks presents its own specific challenges. One Size Does Not Fit All.

After you finished your Risk Assessment and Analyzed the specific Risks it’s also important to think about what Risks that you have not included into you assessments. A Risk Assessment can be of great help but it can also mask threats; especially those that does not correspond well to current trends and knowledge. What potential danger do you not view as Risks and Why? What information supports your assumptions and what information challenge them?

Also see
Risk Assessments

Natural Disasters - Hurricanes

There are many names for tropical costal storms. In the US they are known as Hurricanes, in other places as Typhoons, Tropical Depressions and Cyclones. These are all the same name for the same event, but the name varies between different regions. A Hurricane is a powerful storm that starts in the Tropics and may the travel from where they gain there in energy in form of heat. Hurricanes contain an incredible amount of energy. A hurricane can generate 100-400 times more energy than the worldwide production of electricity. This energy is comparable to the energy released from small nuclear weapons. This gives Hurricanes a capacity to inflict an enormous amount of damage.

A Hurricane gathers energy from the warmth of the ocean water and can continue to gather energy until it reaches a coastline. When a Hurricane reaches a coastline it can no longer draw energy from the warm water of the ocean and will lose its momentum and energy. Its however possible to travel over land and then travel over an area of sea and start to regain its force once again. Hurricanes are most frequent from July to October in the North Atlantic but have occurred from May to December as well, this is from the need of warm water in the ocean from witch a Hurricane can draw its energy.

A Hurricane rotates around the center of storm which is normally referred to as the Eye. When the strong Hurricane winds rotate the build up a mass of water in the center of the storm that can reach a height of several meters, when the hurricane hits a coastal area it’s not a normal wave but a enormous mountain of water in addition to high waves that can flood large areas. The wind and water from the Hurricane can cause massive damage to housing, infrastructure and communications; it can take a region several years to rebuild the damaged infrastructure. A hurricane can destroy businesses, workplaces and lead to severe economical consequences in addition to direct loses for individuals in form of housing and other belongings. The Strength of Hurricanes is often measured in the Saffir-Simpson Scale ranging from 1-5 where 1 is a relatively weak hurricane and 5 represents and catastrophic hurricane.

Timeline
1780 The Hurricane San Calixto killed around 20.000-24.000 people in the Caribbean.

1900 the low lying community Galveston in Texas was hit by a Category 4 Hurricane that destroyed most of the wood and brick buildings in the community. Many escaped but for those how where 6000 among those how where unable leave died in the disaster. After the disaster the community was isolated when the bridges to the main land were destroyed and there was little access to water, food and medical supplies.

1969 over 70cm of rainfall during less than eight hours from Hurricane Camille caused mudflows that killed 150 people and destroyed over a hundred homes, farmland and infrastructure in Virginia.

1970 The Bhola Cyclone hit Bangladesh, flooding much of the country killing somewhere between 300.000-700.000 people. This is one the deadliest natural disasters in modern time. The Cyclone also caused massive damage to infrastructure destroying almost half a million homes.

1982 The Hurricane Iwa hits the Hawaiian Island Kauai causing widespread damage and killing one person.

1989 April 12th the Hurricane Hugo killed somewhere between 50-60 people and destroyed around 100.000 homes and resulting in billions of dollars worth of damage.

1991 A massive Cyclone hit Bangladesh killing 130.000-150.000 people and leaving up to 10 million people homeless.

1992 The Category 4 Hurricane Andrew destroyed 30.000 homes and damaged a 100.000 more. In Dade County the hurricane destroyed almost all of the 10.000 mobile homes in area and caused around 25-30 billion dollar worth of damage in total.

1992 Hurricane Iniki hit the Hawaiian Island of Kauai devastating the local economy and killing two.

1997 Hurricane Pauline released an massive amount of rain over Acapulco resulting in debris flows and flood that killed 230 People.

1998 Hurricane Mitch brings massive damage to Central America, The Caribbean and Southern Florida killing 11.000 people, causing massive damage to housing, infrastructure and communications.

1999 The Category 5 Cyclone Orissa hit India killing around 10.000 and leaving several millions homeless.

2005 Hurricane Katrina killed over 1800 people and leaving several hundred still missing. A large area was affected but the most devastation took place in New Orleans where the barriers protecting the city failed resulting a severe flooding of the city. Many towns at the coastline in Missisippi also suffered massive damage to housing and infrastructure. Around 2 million people were displaced and many have been unable to return to their homes even today.

Early Warning
With modern satellites it’s possible to see how hurricanes form and how they progress. This means that it’s possible to issue early warning when hurricanes form so that people may get out of the destructive path of the storm. This is however a complicated process for several reasons. One reason is that it is hard to predict exactly how much energy a hurricane will gather when travels over the sea and how much energy it will have when it hits a coastal line. The other major problem is that it is hard to predict exactly where a hurricane will hit and predict its exact path. These two factors mean that there will always be some uncertainty both when it comes to the exact strength a hurricane will have and when or where it will hit. It may be weaker or stronger than anticipated and may change direction and hit an area that was not predicted.

Survival and Preparedness
Insurance and Emergency Budget
A Hurricane can easily destroy house, infrastructure, vehicles, businesses, farmland and many more economical and personal values. I suggest that you try to reduce your vulnerability by reviewing the setting of your home and the strength of structure – what can be done to minimize the impact if the worst would happen and how what are the likely consequences for you? If you have comprehensive food storage and other preparations for disasters they may prove to be of little use if your house will be flooded during a worst case scenario – your setting is very important.

The other step is to make sure that you have the proper Insurance so in order to minimize the economical consequences if your home would be affected. Some personal belongings and values may never be replaced but this can help to minimize the impact of such an event. During large scale hurricanes it’s common that insurance companies can go bankrupt so getting coverage may still be a hard and long process. Having an Emergency Budget may also prove to be crucial in this types of events; a hurricane can destroy businesses and livelihoods leaving individuals with no or little income. Even if property is insured it may take a long time before you see any compensation and you may have to make until then so having savings may become very important.

Setting
If you live in an area that may be affected by hurricanes your setting is one of the most critical aspects of preparedness. Having a house close to the shoreline is a setting with a beautiful view but can be devastating if a hurricane hits. Remember that a hurricane can bring a mountain of water several meters high that can flood large areas, having a house on the low lands can be devastating if a hurricane hits. Some areas may be located under sea level and protected by barriers, these areas are especially vulnerable if a hurricane breaches these barriers. The indirect effect of enormous rainfall can also cause landslides in regions located a quite long distance from the coast. Areas like canyons and hills with loose soils are especially vulnerable.

The other important aspect of your setting is the building that you live in. Hurricane winds can cause massive damage to structures. Light structures and especially mobile homes are very vulnerable and a hurricane can cause almost total damage if areas with these types of housing are affected. Roofs is one of the most crucial parts of a structure, if hurricane winds can tear a roof from a building the rest of structures will be severely weekend and vulnerable to winds. You may find some advice for guidelines in your local building codes.

Evacuation
Evacuating a large city or region is a complicated process. To evacuate an entire community normally takes from 30-72 hours. Normally the most vulnerable are those that are old, disabled or those how lack the access to vehicles or resources to get out of the area on their own. During large scale evacuations its common the highways get stuck with heavy traffic and that the progress of the traffic can be very slow. In 1999 a massive gridlock occurred when a hurricane warning was given in North Carolina, the hurricane did not however hit the area, but changed direction and hit North Carolina instead. Had the Hurricane hit North Carolina many could have been killed trying to escape.

Your Vehicles is one of the most critical aspects during an evacuation. Regularly check your tiers, check your breaks and maintain your vehicle in order to make sure that it will work properly if you would need it. Also try to
• Keep your tank as full as possible
• Store some extra Gasoline in cans
• Keep Bug Out Bags and the most Important belonging easy accessible
• Stay Updated
• Find the plan for Hurricane Evacuation from your local agencies.
• Make a Plan for Your Family
• Make a review of your situation before the beginning of every Hurricane Season

Gas Stations can easily be overwhelmed during evacuations if everyone tries to get access to gas at the same time, try to keep your vehicles tank as full as possible at all times and store some extra gasoline in metal containers in your home if possible. Gas can’t be stored for an unlimited period of time so make sure that you rotate it regularly. For advice concerning equipping vehicles for emergencies see the article Travelling With Vehicles During Crisis and Survival Situations.

Home Preparedness
A hurricane can also cause indirect consequences for people how are not directly affected by damaging infrastructure and communication. You find yourself without electricity and running water for and its common that supermarkets sells out their stock of supplies, water and generator quickly if a hurricane is about to hit. A hurricane can also result in other dangers like the spread of disease.

Having a basic food storage, the ability to prepare food, water, the means of sterilizing or filter water, light, medical supplies, emergency sanitation and a generator can spare you much trouble in such a scenario. For more suggestions on Home Preparedness see the articles Get The Ability To Cope With A Crisis and Equipment For Your Home – Checklist.

Analysis
The less resources people have the harder they are generally hit by all types of natural disasters. This is a result from multiple factors like the ability to construct strong buildings, that poor people often live in most vulnerable areas, they may lack the resources to evacuate and the resources to cope with the disaster. In rich countries its relatively few people that die in hurricanes compared to the situation in poor countries with a high population density like Bangladesh. The economical loses in rich countries tend to be very high even if the number of dead often is quite low in compared to countries with less resources. Hurricanes also present an increasing challenge from both the urbanization process that concentrate more and more people into cities and the continuing increase in world population. Today around half of the world population lives in coastal areas. Hurricanes present a large threat to the people living in areas that may be affected by hurricanes and it’s important to plan and prepare for this type of scenario if you may be affected.

What can be learned from the Japanese Crisis?

A few days ago one of the most powerful earthquakes in modern time struck outside the eastern shores of Japan. The Earthquake resulted in a massive Tsunami that resulted in a massive loss of lives and massive damage to the infrastructure leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Japan is most likely the most well prepared country on earth to cope with this type of events and had early warning systems in place the loss of life has been great.

This natural disaster would also result in another disaster: damage to the nuclear power plant in the country. The information about surrounding the event has been field with contradicting information, uncertainty and rumors have been circulating. This event has resulted in a combination of a Manmade Disaster and a Natural Disasters. And will most likely become a textbook example of a worst case scenario.

So what can be learned?
Only after a few days the shelves in stores are empty and many of the survivors have a hard time getting access to food and water. A relatively small storage of food lasting only a few weeks and a basic storage of water could have made a great difference for many. Some are also homeless and have hard time shielding themselves from the elements as they search for lost friends and family members.

Another thing that can be learned is that everything can be lost without a moment’s notice. If anyone living next to the shores had made preparations in their homes they may have lost them if it was hit by the tsunami. Having a comprehensive Every Day Carry or a Get Home Bag may be the only tools that you have available after such a scenario.

The development with the nuclear power plants is yet another example that even systems that are believed to be safe can collapse. There were multiple backup systems in the plants but they have all failed. Of course one can focus on the design of the plants and lay blame on individual persons or the company owning the plants. And this will take place after the crisis over.

Our modern societies are dependent on a number of complex systems that makes our modern lives possible. Electricity, Telecommunications and The Internet is only a few examples. This event is an example of what can happen when just one of these systems collapse for a short time.

Many also blame the media and people in charge for not providing accurate information and misleading the public. It is possible that all information has not been provided but one should most importantly reflect over the Dynamic of a Crisis Situation. A crisis is always a situation when the information about the situation is incomplete. Even with the access to modern communications, video and the internet it is impossible to take in and find all information that is available. This may become clear after a crisis but is never completely clear during a crisis. Decision must be based on incomplete information. The situation affected by an enormous time pressure. There are great values at stake; lives, homes, infrastructure, people’s health, economic values and prestige.

Not even the expert on this subject make the same assessment on the situation, we have seen different assessments made by different government agencies from different countries. The recommendations that have gone out by the Japanese have recommended an evacuation zone of 20 km surrounding the Fukushima power plants, but other countries have recommended their citizens to evacuate to a distance of minimum 80km.

What to do if you feel worried?
• Stay informed. But understand the information is incomplete, contradictory and will continue to be so for a long period of time. Also remember that the assessments made by experts are based upon incomplete information.
• Read up on the subject and learn more about radiation and previous events.
• Learn what agencies in your country / region that measure radiation and where you can find this information.
• Create routines for closing ventilation, securing windows etc.
• If you live in Japan, increase the distance between yourself and the plants if possible until the situation is under control.

How would a situation of this type be handled in the US? There are extensive plans for handling this type of events in the US and a system for triage and mass casualty events have been developed. You can find the “The RTR Medical Response System for Nuclear and Radiological Mass-Casualty Incidents” here.

What will happen?
It is impossible to say how this crisis that is still ongoing will end. If there is a complete meltdown radioactive fallout may affect only the local area. During the Chernobyl meltdown the explosion was very powerful and fire that followed in the graphite would result in severe fallout far away from the plant. The circumstances in these plants see to be very different and the reactor design different from the case of Chernobyl. But there is still no telling with certainty what will follow. The cooling may be restored or the development may continue. What the long term and short term effects will be is impossible say right now. But the problem is Dual. Both the damage from the earthquake and the following tsunami plus the situations in the Japanese Power plants must be handled in what has become of the most complex crisis of our time.

During this crisis we have also seen other reactions like people stocking up on Iodide tablets. Iodide can prevent the body from taking up radioactive Iodide if inhaling or digesting radioactive particles. But it does not offer a complete protection from radiation. Do not TAKE iodide tablets unless this has been ordered by a government agency. Also make sure to follow the instructions if you do, taking too many tablets can result in severe consequences. People with allergies to iodide, taking certain medication and people with certain types of disease should not take Iodide. There are also special considerations for pregnant women, children and other groups. Talk to your doctor if you have bought this type of tablets. This form of tablets are now selling for very high prices on sites like E-Bay, a similar reaction could be seen during the Swine Flu pandemic with Tamiflu. At this point this seems like an overreaction to me, especially for those how live far away from the plants, like people living the US.

By the time I write this some or all of this information may have been proven wrong or incomplete, this is my take on the situation right now.

Information is the most critical aspect during any CBRN event – stay informed.

Also see:

Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Dangers

Recommended Books and Your Survival Library

Today it is often possible to find much information online in a quick and easy way. However, much of the information available on the net does not have the in-depth of an ordinary book. Having a physical collection of books can be a resource both as an everyday reference source and an advantage during a long lasting blackout or during a communication interruption. Books are a great resource to learn new knowledge and gain new perspectives. Buying books can be costly so don’t forget to use your local library if you have one available, buying books second hand may be another alternative.

Survival Handbooks
So what books could you start with? As your first book I would recommend that you get “The SAS Survival Handbook” by John “Lofty” Wiseman. This is one of the best survival handbooks that have ever been written and contains everything from advice for equipment, surviving in different types of terrain, navigation, first aid and medical advice, different types of natural disasters and many other fields. When you read the book for the first time write down the most important thing you read in a notebook. This book is also available in pocket size and can be an interesting alternative for a Bug Out Bag, however I recommend that you read the whole book and try to learn the skills that is described in the book instead. Wiseman has also written two other handbooks that can be interesting: “The SAS Urban Survival Handbook” and “The SAS Self Defense Handbook”. Wiseman has also started a Survival School called the “Trueways Survival School”.
• "The SAS Self-Defense Handbook" - John Wiseman
• "The SAS Survival Handbook" - John Wiseman
• "The SAS Urban Survival Handbook" - John Wiseman

There is also a number of other survival Handbooks on the market. The American author and survival expert Tom Brown has written a number of handbooks like: “Tom Browns Field Guide: City and Suburban Survival”, “Tom Browns Field Guide: Wilderness Survival”, “Way of the Scout” and “The Science and Art of Tracking”. Brown also has a survival school called The Tracker School if you would like learn from him first hand.
• “Tom Browns Field Guide: City and Suburban Survival” - Tom Brown
• “Tom Browns Field Guide: Wilderness Survival” – Tom Brown
• “Way of the Scout” – Tom Brown
• “The Science and Art of Tracking” – Tom Brown

In most countries there is also Survival Handbooks that is produced by the national military; these handbooks often contain very useful advice for your local climate and context. One example is the US Army Survival Manual: FM 21-76. This handbook can be downloaded for free from the Survivalist Boards.

First Aid
The book “The Wilderness First Responder” is an excellent handbook and reference for how to handle different types of medical emergencies during wilderness setting or setting when professional assistance may not be available. The book is a great reference but when it comes to first aid it is very important to train these skills on a regular basis, I suggest that you take First Aid and CPR courses as often as you, once per five years as an absolute minimum.
• "Wilderness First Responder: How to Recognize, Treat and Prevent Emergencies in the Backcountry" - Buck Tilton

The Collapse of Civilizations
• “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” - Jared Diamond. Diamond can be seen in the National Geographic Documentary “2210: The Collapse” and in the TED talk “Why Societies Collapse”
• "Guns, Germs and Steel" - Jared Diamond
• “The Collapse of Complex Societies” – Joseph Tainter
• “Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects” - Dmitry Orlov

Natural Disasters
"Natural Disasters" by Patrick L. Abbott is one of the best books on the subjects that describe most types of Natural Disasters with illustrations and historical examples.

Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence Analysis may not be a direct subject for survival but is however an important subject when it gives an understanding for the problems that different types of Intelligence Agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency faces.
• “National Intelligence Systems” - Gregory F. Treverton & Wilhelm Agrell
• “Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations” – Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce
• “Introduction to Private and Public Intelligence: The Swedish School of Competitive Intelligence” – Klaus Solberg Solein
• “Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” - Richard J. Heuer, Jr. This book can be read for free on the CIA homepage.

Psychology
• “The Psychology of Risk” – Glynis M Breakwell
• “Survival Psychology” – John Leach
• “Deep Survival” – Laurence Gonzales
• “The Lucifer Effect” – Philip Zimbardo

Crisis Management
• “Key Readings in Crisis Management: Systems and structures for prevention and recovery” - Denis Smith and Domenic Elliot
• “The Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leadership under Pressure” - Arjen Boin, Pault Hart, Eric Stern and Bengt Sundelius
• “At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters” - Ben Wisner, Piers M. Blaikie and Terry Cannon

War, Conflict and International Relations
• “Understanding International Conflict” – Joseph S. Nye
• “New and Old Wars” - Mary Kaldor
• “Shake hands with the Devil: The failure of humanity in Rwanda” - Romeo Dallaire
• “Corporate Warriors” – Peter S Singer

Terrorism
“Root Causes of Terrorism: Myths, Reality and ways Forward" – ed Tore Bjorgo
“My Life is a Weapon: A Modern Story of Suicide Bombing” – Christoph Reuter
“Terrorism versus Democracy: The Liberal State Response” – Paul Wilkinson

Europol also follow the trend of terrorism and every year makes a report of the situation called EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT). These reports can be viewed and read for free online:
• TE-SAT 2010
• TE-SAT 2009
• TE-SAT 2008

Peak Oil
• “Confronting Collapse: The Crisis of Energy and Money in a Post Peak Oil World” - Michael Ruppert
• “The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the 21st Century” – James Howard Kunstler.
• “Beyond Oil: The view from Hubbert’s Peak” – Kenneth S. Deffeyes
• “Why Your World is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller” – Jeff Rubin
• “The Party’s Over” – Richard Heinberg
• “Peak Everything” – Richard Heinberg
• “The Limits to Growth: 30 Year Update” – Donella H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jorgen Randers
• "Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture" - Dale Allen Pheiffer

Barter
"Getting to Yes: Negotiating Without Giving In" - Roger Fisher, William Ury & Bruce Patton

Fictional Books
• “One Second After” – William R. Forstchen
• “Patriots: A Novel about Survival in the Coming Collapse” – James Wesley Rawles

Other Books

• “Emergency” - Neil Strauss
• “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Other parts of Your Library
[ ] Inventory list of what equipment you have available and the location of this equipment. Lists for water and food storage may also be a good addition. Write down in your calendar when you should rotate your water.
[ ] Pens
[ ] Paper
[ ] Light
[ ] Notebooks (I recommend the notebooks from Rite-In-The-Rain and Moleskine)
[ ] Phonebook with addresses, phone numbers and birthdays to your friends and family
[ ] Your local phonebook
[ ] Diary
[ ] Calendar
[ ] Photographs of your family members
[ ] Passports and ID
[ ] Vaccination cards
[ ] Birth certificate
[ ] Insurance papers
[ ] Paper versions of Risk Assessments made by local organizations

Maps
[ ] City
[ ] Local
[ ] Road Maps
[ ] Regional
[ ] Country
[ ] World
[ ] Sea charts

Translation and Communication
During some situations you might encounter people that do not speak the same language that you do, for these times it can be good to have some kind of tool for communication. The Kwikpoint is a chart designed for communication during travel and other situations that can be used for communicating if you do not know the language that the other person speaks. The Kwikpoints also come in specialized versions for military personnel, first responder and other medical personnel, law enforcement and travel. However if you go to a country where you don’t speak the language, try to learn a few phrases and basic words before you go.
[ ] Dictionaries
[ ] Kwikpoint

Responding to an Emerging Crisis

A crisis or survival situation may manifest either without any previous warning or after a series of warnings. If a warning is given before a crisis the warnings are often mixed with conflicting information making it very hard to estimate how serious a threat really is.

After a disaster the information that goes out to the public can contain contradicting information about how serious the incident or situation really is. This is often even more serious if the threat or situation is something that is unfamiliar. Unknown threats present large problems for first responders but also for politicians and other leaders of a community that lack the experience, routines and possibly equipment to handle the situation. Researching different kinds of potential threats can make it easier for you to understand what is going on during a crisis situation and what you can expect. It’s important that you continually try to keep yourself updated and review the situation as its changing.

Responding to an emerging crisis situation
• Try to stay updated by following the news in the media and through the radio. Write down information as it comes in, make a timeline.
• Make a check with family and friends and get an update of their situation.
• If the situation might call for an evacuation check Bug Out Bags and Vehicles. Check potential escape routes; is there any information that suggests that these routes may be blocked or inaccessible?
• Is there any other specific tools or equipment that the situation may call for in addition to the supplies that you’re Bug Out Bag contains?
• Make an inventory/check of the status for water, food, light, storage of gasoline and medical supplies. What specific needs may this threat call for? Is there anything you can do to improve these needs or minimize the consequences?
• Fill up water bottles, water containers and additional water storage if possible.
• Make some additional research about the threat, previous events and lessons learned.
• What is the weather forecast for the coming days?

A crisis or survival situation will be both stressful and frustrating. Sometimes help from outside sources may come very fast from first responders but in other situation the scale of a disaster may overwhelm a society and you may have to make do with what you have. If external help is not available you will have to manage the situation yourself. Information that goes out during a crisis is affected by the ongoing situation. Even if government agencies are planning to send help to a region damaged infrastructure or lack of resource may delay or prevent the help from arriving. Traveling with airline, bus or train may also be problematic and delays should be expected.

The importance of being Prepared
If you can can’t keep warm or get access to water a bad situation may get lethal in case of a long lasting emergency or natural disaster quite fast. If you do not have access to food, light, medical supplies and a way of receiving information like a battery powered radio your situation will be much more uncomfortable and the sense of insecurity larger than it would otherwise be. The equipment and preparations that you have made before a crisis can mean the difference between life and death. It can also prove to be the difference between having to endure a crisis under extreme hardship or with ease.

Checklist
[ ] Sleeping bags, blankets, clothing and some kind of heater?
[ ] Equipment to start a fire?
[ ] Water and equipment to collect and purify water?
[ ] Food that does not have to be stored in a refrigerator?
[ ] Some kind of stove that can be used to prepare food in case of black out?
[ ] Sources of light? Spare batteries and extra fuel?
[ ] First aid kit and basic medical supplies?
[ ] Some kind of radio that can be used in case of a black out?
[ ] An emergency toilet?

Keeping a log
It’s important that you keep a log of the information that you are receiving. When did you receive the information and from what source? Can any other source confirm this information? If you make contact with friends or family members make sure to write down the time when you made contact with them, what their situation was, what their plans are and how you can make contact with them again.

If you are in a larger group or with your family I suggest that you have a briefing every night and morning about what has taken place during the day, what new information that has become available and what the plans are for the next day.

No matter the situation it is very important that you
• Try to stay positive, alert and calm
• Don’t second guess yourself or think about what you could have done differently to avoid or divert the situation, keep the focus on the situation at hand.
• Keep planning and taking steps to reduce the consequences of the disaster. The situation will most likely continue to change and it’s important that you stay updated.
• Keep a regular update on water and supplies – what should your priority be right now?
• Make sure that everyone has a task to do and get organized. Just sitting around and waiting will not improve a bad situation. Make sure that water gets collected and purified, that food get prepared on regular times if possible, take care of hygiene and try to keep the location you’re in as clean and organized as possible.
• How one should handle a situation if there is children present can be difficult. But I would recommend that you explain the situation as best you can and explain what you are doing to make it better. If you don’t know answers don’t be afraid to say so.
• Look after your friends and family.

Natural Disasters - Earthquakes

Different types of Natural Disasters results in the death of thousands of people every year. This will be the first in a series of posts that will cover some of the Natural Disasters and the effects they have. In order to create a broader understanding of the risks involved a timeline with some historical examples will be presented. Among these natural disasters few can cause as much death and devastations as earthquakes. One very problematic aspect of earthquakes is that they are events that can occur only on a few times over many years. When they takes place they can have an enormously destructive effect and with no or little warning.

Earthquakes are normally generated because of earth movement along fault lines. The area surrounding The San Andreas Fault Line that passes through California is an especially high risk area in the United States. The cause for earthquakes has only recently been discovered and today the high risk areas for earthquakes are known. The forces from an earthquake can destroy building and infrastructure like roads, bridges, the electrical grid, sanitation and water supply. This can cause secondary effects like fires and outbreak of epidemics like cholera. The collapse of building and falling items is the most common cause of death resulting from an earthquake, around 90% of all deaths result from this.

Earthquakes
There are some common scales that are used to measure the effect of earthquakes: The Richter Scale is one of the most well know. The Richter Scale is logarithmic, the difference between a level 4 and level 5 is ten times in strength, the difference between 4 and 6 is a hundred times in strength and the difference between 4 and 7 is a thousand to give some examples. The Movement Magnitude Scale is a more modern scale used to the magnitude of earthquake. The Mercalli Scale of Earthquake Intensity is a scale with the twelve steps that describes the destructive force of an earthquake where I on the scale normally aren’t felt by people and where XII equals almost total destruction. The epicenter of an earthquake is the geographical point where an earthquake is centered.

Timeline
1755 An earthquake occurred on the first of November, “All Saints day” in Lisbon, Portugal. Many of the people in the city were in the churches when the earthquake hit. The churches were not built to withstand an earthquake and collapsed. Many of the building were destroyed and a devastating fire that lasted for days followed. Many fled to the shore for safety but were hit by tsunami waves created by the earthquake. Additional earthquakes would follow that further worsened the situation and laid many towns to waste. It’s believed that somewhere between 10.000-100.000 people lost their lives in this disaster.

1906 on April the 18th a devastating earthquake hit San Francisco. The earthquake rated 7,8 on the Richter scale. The devastating fire followed that lasted for three day, fighting the fire was also hard because of the lack of water. Over 3.000 died and around 250.000 people in San Francisco became homeless as a result.

1923 The Great Kantō earthquake hit Japan. 100.000-150.000 died from the devastating earthquake. The disaster took place during lunchtime; many used fire to prepare food a factor that worsened the fires that broke out. Around 2 million became homeless.

1964 One of the most powerful earthquakes in modern took place in Alaska on “Good Friday” March 27. Only around 100 people died from the earthquake in the low populated region.

1970 The worst natural disaster in the history of Peru too place in Nevados Huascaran. The earthquake triggered a massive landslide and 60.000-75.000 died as a result. Over one million people also became homeless.

1976 One of the worst earthquakes in history took place in Tangsan, China. Around 250.000 died and around 150.000 were injured. A combination of unsafe buildings and soil condition worsened the effect of the quake and left many of the survivors homeless.

1976 a devastating earthquake hit Guatemala. Around 22.000-23.000 died, over 70.000 was injured and thousands were left homeless after the earthquake that hit during the early morning when many were still asleep in their homes.

1976 just under 10.000 died from an earthquake in the Philippines

1978 a massive earthquake took place in Iran. The city Tabas was affected the worst, 75% of the people living in the city died leaving only around 4000 alive. Almost all of the healthcare personal and doctors died in the city adding to the desperate situation. Around 25.000 died in total.

1985 around 10.000-15.000 died from an earthquake that affected Mexico City. Mexico City is particular vulnerable to earthquakes because of the ground that the city rests on that easily can move during earthquakes.

1988 over 25.000 died from an earthquake in Armenia, then a part of the Soviet Union. The earthquake took place during the winter and many died from a result of the severe cold when their housing was destroyed. The city of Spitak was almost completely destroyed.

1990 Iran was affected by a powerful earthquake that resulted in 40.000-50.000 dead, around 60.000 wounded and many thousands homeless.

1993 just under 10.000 died from an earthquake in Marashtra, India

1995 around 6.500 died from an earthquake in Japan, most of them from the city Kobe. Around 200.000 buildings were destroyed along with major damage to the infrastructure. The poor district in Nagata Ward held many of the casualties from the earthquake, a combination of unsafe buildings and flammable chemicals used in for manufacturing of shoes worsened the situation in this area.

1999 a powerful earthquake hit Izmit in Turkey. Poorly constructed buildings and poverty worsened the effect of the earthquake that killed somewhere around 15.000, injured over 40.000 and left over 600.000 homeless.

1999 around 3500 people died from an earthquake in Nantou, Taiwan

2001 around 20.000 died from an earthquake in Gujarat, India during the 51st celebration of India’s Republic Day. Over 150.000 were injured and around half a million became homeless.

2003 a major earthquake affected Bam in Iran. The earthquake resulted in over 25.000 dead and around 30.000 injured. The effect was worsened because it took place during the night when many were sleeping. The United States offered assistance to Iran that was finally accepted, this was quite controversial because of the tension between Iran and the US after 9/11 2001.

2005 a major earthquake took place in the Pakistan part of Kashmir that left around 80.000 dead. India and Pakistan managed to cooperate despite the tensed situation between the countries over Kashmir and India helped to provided disaster relief.

2010 On the 12th of January a devastating earthquake took place in Haiti that may have been the deadliest earthquake in history. The death toll is now estimated to be around 200.000-300.000 people, with an additional 300.000 injured and over one million homeless. Haiti had long series of problem with poverty, internal conflict and unsafe building that worsened the effect of the earthquake.

Survival and Preparedness
The time when an earthquake takes place in critical, during night people are much more vulnerable when people are sleeping in their beds and vulnerable to collapsing buildings and falling items. If you live in a risk area for earthquakes the location where you live and the building where you live is critical for your security. Housing that’s not earthquake resistant may literally become a deathtrap. In general housing in low income and poor areas are affected the worst since they often can have a lack of maintenance and less secure building codes. The slums in urban areas or low income countries are classic examples. High Income Countries are often much less affected than low income countries that both have a more vulnerable infrastructure and less resources to manage a disaster. Aftershocks after a first earthquake can cause already damaged building to collapse.

Other secondary effects can be that law enforcement can’t control the situation in an area; plundering, looting and general lawlessness can follow. Normally countries from all around the world will send Search And Rescue Teams (SART) to an affected area, but this is almost like sending an ambulance from oversea. Most of the victims trapped under collapsed buildings will be dead before the SART will arrive. So even they can save some individuals this is a very costly operation that often don’t give big results. The local resources are often the resources that can make the biggest difference. After a few day international organizations like the UN, aid agencies from different nations and Non Governmental Organizations (NGO:s) will start to arrive. These organization will do what they can to help but if you ever find yourself in the aftermath of a major earthquake you must understand there may be a long time before help arrives and that the needs will be greater than any can master in short period of time.

· Make sure that there is no heavy items that can fall down and cause damage, especially over or around your bed.

· The access to water and sanitation may be limited and the risk of epidemics is high – especially for cholera. Having some water stored, an emergency toilet, hand disinfection, water purification filter, water purification tablets, bleach and a first aid kit can make a big difference.

· For search and rescue after a disaster items like flashlights, headlights, heavy duty leather work gloves, protective footwear, helmet and so on can be good items to have. If you would like to be a resource after a earthquake or other disaster I recommend that you join a CERT team, some kind of first responder unit or the Red Cross so that you can get some professional training. A fire extinguisher and fireproof blanket are effective items in cases where earthquakes results in fire.

· In some cases warning of coming earthquakes can be given by government agencies. If you receive a warning take some extra action, fill up some extra water containers and check your equipment. Taking down items for shelves like books and hanging items can also be a good idea.

· During some cases it may become necessary to evacuate and affected area, a Bug Out Bag or Get Home Bag can be useful tools to help you deal with this type of scenario.