The World is Coming to an End. Things are getting darker and darker every day and soon something is going to happen. It will be swift and it will be hard. This is the basic story presented by most people in the Survivalist and Prepper movement. Everyone that is involved in the movement see this type of threads and post about all the time. Predictions made about specific dates, events and forecast. It’s happening soon – It is time to step up your efforts before it’s too late.
In this article I will challenges some of the perceptions within the movement and discuss what we can do broaden our perspectives. It will take you around two hours to look through the material presented in this article but it will most likely increase your understanding of the world and give you some new perspectives.
The Survivalist Narrative
Like I wrote before the story that is most often presented within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement is the story of the Sudden collapse. The World As We Know It will fall apart basically over night and only the well prepared or lucky will make it through. This is the scenario presented in two of the most popular fictional books often recommended; “Patriots” by James Wesley Rawles and “One Second After” by William R Forstchen. In the first book the US economy breaks down, violence, collapse and a foreign invasion follows. In the second book the US gets hit by a High Altitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP) that takes out all modern electronics from computer, to cell phones, modern cars and the electrical grid resulting in the death of a majority of the US population and a following invasion.
Our Perception of the World and Cognitive Bias
Richard Heuer is Psychologist that used to work for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In the book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Heuer discuss many of the challenges the people working within the Intelligence Community face and why the often make incorrect analysis. One of the things that affect people the most is that we see what we expect to see and that different situations also affect how we perceive the world. During nighttime people are more likely to hear foot steps behind them when walking home compared to during daytime. Another critical aspect identified by Heuer is that when we have created mindset about something it resists change, no matter if there is strong evidence that suggests otherwise, new information that does not fit our first impression is changed so that it fits the original analysis or disregarded. This is something that every person does even if it is not a conscious process.
Two Stories about The World
A Good Story
So how does one change an incorrect assumption about the world? This is not an easy task. One method that can be used is to research facts, if the fact does not support our perception we might simply be incorrect. But to collect and display statistics in a way that makes it possible to understand and put in relation to other facts is not easy.
One person that has done is Hans Rosling. Rosling is a professor in public health and have been working as a doctor in countries that does not have many of the resources that hospitals in rich countries have. Rosling have the help of other created a graphical interface that allows statically information to be used to show the change within different countries over time when it comes to field like life expectancy, income, fertility rate and child mortality. This may not sound very interesting at first but I suggest that check out the video "New Insights on Povery". Its 20 min long, it will blow your mind and shake the perspective that you have of the world. Most people may assume that politicians and other top people within the business world has a good understanding of the world around them, but many of the leading people in the world has approached Rosling after he’s talks and said that they had no idea about facts that he just showed them.
A Troubling Story
If you have watched the video with Rosling you might be in quite a good mood. In 2009 the French filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand made one of the most troubling movies about the contemporary world. In the movie “Home” multiple questions like the Population Explosion, Peak Oil, The Depletion of Non Renewable Resources and Environmental Destruction is discussed. The movie was not made to generate profit and can be seen by anyone for free on YouTube. This is a movie that I really recommend for everyone.
"Home" is not a unique movie, many similar productions have been made the last years like the National Geographic Documentary “2210 The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond, “Blind Spot” and “The End Of Suburbia” just to name a few. The stories are not identical but the message that they present are very similar; The world is facing an unprecedented crisis and we are not even aware of what’s coming.
So Where Does These Two Stories Leave Us?
After seeing these two videos you have been presented with two versions of the world both based upon facts. They are radically different, so is does any of these two perspectives present a correct perspective of the world today? My answer would be that both perspectives are correct. Both stories are grounded in fact. The message of the two perspectives are almost the exact opposite from the other and this is a good example of why it is so difficult to understand the complexity of the world even if one has some of the facts available.
What Should You Take With You From This Article?
So what would I like the reader to take with them from this article? First of all that the world is not only a set of facts, how we perceive these facts shapes our perception of the world. As Preppers and Survivalist the stories that we are told within the movement makes it easy to disregard information that does not support these stories. Many also take the information presented when a major crisis occurs as a sign that the “Big One” is here. This is something that takes place every time a new threat is presented, no matter if it is the swine flu, an economic crisis or most recently the events surrounding the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan. Positive information is disregarded and negative information reinforced by many.
Most people that are not Survivalist and Preppers on the other hand often totally disregards information suggesting that major disasters or accidents may occur no matter what information that is presented to them. This can make it a very frustrating process discussing crisis preparedness, prepping or survivalism with anyone that does not share this perspective since the two people do not share the same perception of the world and will not easily change this perception no matter what facts they are shown.
So why did I write this article? I share many of the concerns that the can be found within the Prepper and Survivalist Movement, but I believe that it is important to always look at the entire picture and not just look for information that supports the conclusions that one has already made. An analysis based upon only positive or negative information will not be as accurate analysis than an analysis that also incorporates contradicting information. The other aspect is hope. Many discuss potential coming problems like they have already happened, like there is no possibility that we can overcome the problems that we face. People that give up on hope in a survival situation often die as a result. With skills, health, knowledge and the will to survive people have made it through situations that have been more or less hopeless. I believe that it is critical that one train too not only see the bad in every situations but also the positive sides and possibilities presented. This can also allow one to find solutions for problems before they manifest, instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to manifest.
Showing posts with label EMP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EMP. Show all posts
Monday, May 16, 2011
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Dangers
Nuclear weapons are the most destructive weapons that mankind has ever created. They have a destructive capability that excites all other weapons. Nuclear weapons creates both enormous amount of thermal energy, a blast wave, initial radiation and radioactive fallout plus and electromagnetic pulse. There are many potential delivery systems like air craft, missiles, bombs, cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Many of the US and Russian weapons are based on strategic submarines. Modern intercontinental ballistic missiles can in some cases carry more than one nuclear war head, this means that one missile can strike more than one target. This is often referred to as multiply independently targetable reentry vehicles or MIRVs. This means that both Russia and the US can have several hundred nuclear warheads on each strategic submarine. The strategic submarines mean that even if an surprise attack against the US or Russia would be successful they could retaliate with hundred, maybe even thousands of nuclear weapons against an attacker. The possibility to destroy an enemy in case of an attack is called MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction.
Radiation
Three types of different radiation is the major problem in Nuclear or radiological scenario: Alfa particles, Beta particles and Gamma rays. Alfa particles have a very low penetration power; they can’t penetrate the skin on the body. But if you inhale Alfa particles into your lungs, drink contaminated water, eat contaminated food or have a cut in your skin you may suffer serious damage from Alfa particles. Beta particles have a slightly higher penetration capability and can cause damage to unprotected skin that resembles the kind of wounds you attract from burn damages. Regular clothing gives some protection but the best protection is some kind of rubber or plastic clothing. Gamma rays have a very high penetration power and the cant really be stopped, the radiation dose can only be reduced by various materials. Materials with a high density like lead or concrete gives the best protection against gamma rays. Neutron radiation is similar to gamma rays with a high penetration.
Radiation Sickness
Radiation causes damage to the cells of the body, if the dose of radiation is big enough the person will become sick, even die if the dose is big enough. The chance of contracting cancer and tumors also increases if persons are submitted to radiation. Early symptoms include fatigue, loss of appetite, being tiered and vomiting.
Protection
A gasmask prevents radioactive Alfa and Beta particles from entering your body trough the lungs. If a nuclear or radiological situation would happen cover up with anything you can find, normal cloths is better than nothing, then get into cover as fast as you can. A basement in a building or fallout shelter is the best option. If no such cover is available, pick the most central location on the ground floors in a building. Use the same routine as with chemical warfare; close all windows, doors and ventilation. Use tape or whatever you can find to make the protection better. Clean your entire body to remove as much radioactive particles as possible. Find out where your nearest fallout shelter or Bomb shelter is located.
Treatment
There is prophylactic treatment that can be used in advance to exposure. Iodide tablets decreases the amount of radiation that the body accumulates by preventing radiation from being absorbed and then leave the body with the urine. This is only reduces some of the effects, it doesn’t prevent them. The immune system often gets severally damaged as an effect of radiation poisoning, often resulting in fatal infections. In the case of an attack with nuclear weapons many surviving people will suffer burn damages from thermal radiation as well as radiation burns, this will make people even more vulnerable to infection. Antibiotics are often given after exposure to prevent infections. Keep all wounds clean and covered.
Dirty Bombs
There is a possibility that radiological materials could be spread by being attached to a conventional bomb to cause even more damage to people. If highly radioactive material like depleted fuel from a nuclear power plant is used there would be a major problem for those how attempt to construct the bomb to actually survive making of the bomb. I have been unable to find any case where a “dirty bomb” has been used.
High Attitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP)
A nuclear explosion that takes place above 30000m creates a powerful electromagnetic pulse. A explosion that triggered high enough could take out most of the electronic systems and communication system in almost the entire continental United States or the European Union. An electromagnetic pulse has no direct effect on people. William R. Forchten describes a scenario like this in he’s fictional book “One Second After”.
Events involving Nuclear Weapons and Radiological Materials
1942 The Manhattan Project gets started with the objective of creating nuclear weapons. In July 1945 the first nuclear bomb called “Trinity” was tested in New Mexico.
1945 The Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki were attacked with nuclear weapons. The weapons used was relatively weak in comparison to the weapons of today (15 and 20 kilotons), but still about 200.000 died of the total population that was less than 500.000. This is the only cases where nuclear weapons been used against an enemy in history.
1952 The US tests the first hydrogen bomb in history named “Mike”, the bomb had an explosive force about 10,5 Megatons.
1952 there was a partial meltdown of the NRX research reactor in Canada. Most of the radioactive leakage was contained within the building housing the reactor.
1961 The Soviet Union tested the most powerful nuclear weapon in history: Tsar Bomba. The nuclear weapon had an explosive force about 60 megatons, 3 megatons is equal to all explosives used in the entire Second World War. 1 Megaton equals 1000 kilotons of explosive force. 1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT. So Hiroshima equaled: 15.000 tons, Tsar Bomba 60.000.000 tons of TNT.
1961 the nuclear reactor aboard the Soviet Strategic Submarine K-19 malfunctions and almost has a complete meltdown. Radioactive cooling water leaks from the reactor. A total meltdown was prevented but eight of the crew later died from radiation sickness.
1962 The Soviet Union placed nuclear weapons and missiles on Cuba. An armed confrontation that could have lead to a nuclear war was very close but could be diverted. This incident is often referred to as The Cuban Missile Crisis. I strongly recommend the book “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis” by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow that analysis the crisis from three different perspectives. There is also a movie about the event called “Thirteen days”.
1967 The US reached its peak in number of nuclear warheads at around 32.500 warheads.
1969 there was a partial meltdown in a small reactor in Lucens, Switzerland. The area containing the reactor was contaminated but no human was exposed. No one died as a result of the incident.
1979 The Three Mile Island accident was the most serious incident in American history until today. There was conflicting information about the accident the first days, there was some radioactive fallout but no one died as direct result. However the fallout may have caused some fatalities from cancer.
1981 Israeli aircraft bombs the Osiraq research reactor in Iraq.
1986 Mordechai Vanunu reveals evidence of Israel’s nuclear weapons program to the British press. He was kidnapped in Rome by Israel intelligence agents and brought back to Israel where he was tried for espionage and treason. He was imprisoned for 18 years and released in 2004. Israel has never gone public with their possession of nuclear weapons.
1986 The Soviet Union reaches its peak with about 45.000 nuclear warheads.
1986 there was a meltdown at the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. 56 died as direct result and hundreds of thousands was exposed to radiation. How many of these that have or will die as a result of cancer is a debated question. Many other countries also got affected by radioactive fallout. This is the worst accident at nuclear power plants until this day.
Sometime during the end of the 1980:s South Africa destroyed all its nuclear weapons. South Africa is the only nuclear power that completely destroyed their nuclear weapons, this was made public 1991.
1999 there was an incident at the Tokaimura nuclear waste storage facility in Japan. It caused radioactive leakage that killed two of the employees.
2006 North Korea makes its first nuclear weapon test. Most information indicates that this was a test with a weapon of relatively weak warhead.
In 2006 the Russian journalist Alexander Litvinenko dies after he’s been poisoned with the radioactive material polonium.
Russia has continued to develop missile systems after the end of the Cold War. One of the current missile projects Bulava are designed to penetrate missile defense systems. The Bulava missiles is intended to be carried by a new Russian class of submarines, the Borei class that is under development.
Existing nuclear powers: The United States and Russia are the most powerful nuclear powers in the world, they have still have around 10.000 warheads per country. France, The United Kingdom, China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea also have nuclear weapons but not nearly as many as the US and Russia. South Africa used to have nuclear weapons but have chosen to destroy their weapons.
There is a possibility that terrorist could get there hand on a nuclear weapon but it would be very hard for a terrorist group to build a weapon from scratch. It’s my belief that the weapon would have to be either supplied by a state or stolen from a state. The security measures surrounding nuclear weapons would make that highly unlikely, but not impossible. The bombs have to be activated, if this is done wrong the modern weapons will seize to function and the process to reset them is complicated, this can often only be done at the installation where they were built. And if a weapons would be stolen the country would chase the people how had stolen it with all resources of a modern state.
If a country would supply a nuclear weapon to terrorist group there is a very high risk that the weapon would be traced back to country that supplied it and the country would most likely face massive retaliation. A terrorist attack with a high attitude EMP is even more unlikely because of need for an advanced missile as well as a nuclear war head.
US Defensive Systems
The US withdrew from the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty 2002 and has some operational systems that can intercept ballistic missiles and some that are under development. The sea based Aegis system is designed to shoot down air craft and incoming ship to ship missiles and is being developed further for this purpose. There is also the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 System that uses missiles. The THAAD system is designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles as they re-enter earths atmosphere, the entire system is mobile and be moved by transport planes. MEADS is also an ongoing project involving US, Germany and Italy. The Airborne Laser (ABL) is a project to shot down missiles with a laser mounted in aircraft, this system is under development. The ABL system and THAAD system has been covered on the show “Future Weapons” on the Discovery channel for anyone looking for more information. How effective ballistic defense systems would really be is hard to say.
There is also stationary equipment to detect radioactive particles and radiation at US port, airports, many major cities and at important installations. So even if a non state actor could get their hands on nuclear weapons it would be hard to smuggle it into the US and there is a real chance it could be intercepted before reaching its target. In addition to this almost every modern country has a series of automatic stationary systems spread over the country that can detect radioactive fallout in an early stage. This is one of the lessons learned from Chernobyl.
The use of nuclear weapons is in my opinion a very low probability scenario but the most disastrous scenarios that could ever happen.
If you want to learn about how triage is planned to work after a nuclear incident I recommend that you check out the report “The “RTR” Medical Response System for Nuclear and Radiological Mass-Casualty Incidents”.
Radiation
Three types of different radiation is the major problem in Nuclear or radiological scenario: Alfa particles, Beta particles and Gamma rays. Alfa particles have a very low penetration power; they can’t penetrate the skin on the body. But if you inhale Alfa particles into your lungs, drink contaminated water, eat contaminated food or have a cut in your skin you may suffer serious damage from Alfa particles. Beta particles have a slightly higher penetration capability and can cause damage to unprotected skin that resembles the kind of wounds you attract from burn damages. Regular clothing gives some protection but the best protection is some kind of rubber or plastic clothing. Gamma rays have a very high penetration power and the cant really be stopped, the radiation dose can only be reduced by various materials. Materials with a high density like lead or concrete gives the best protection against gamma rays. Neutron radiation is similar to gamma rays with a high penetration.
Radiation Sickness
Radiation causes damage to the cells of the body, if the dose of radiation is big enough the person will become sick, even die if the dose is big enough. The chance of contracting cancer and tumors also increases if persons are submitted to radiation. Early symptoms include fatigue, loss of appetite, being tiered and vomiting.
Protection
A gasmask prevents radioactive Alfa and Beta particles from entering your body trough the lungs. If a nuclear or radiological situation would happen cover up with anything you can find, normal cloths is better than nothing, then get into cover as fast as you can. A basement in a building or fallout shelter is the best option. If no such cover is available, pick the most central location on the ground floors in a building. Use the same routine as with chemical warfare; close all windows, doors and ventilation. Use tape or whatever you can find to make the protection better. Clean your entire body to remove as much radioactive particles as possible. Find out where your nearest fallout shelter or Bomb shelter is located.
Treatment
There is prophylactic treatment that can be used in advance to exposure. Iodide tablets decreases the amount of radiation that the body accumulates by preventing radiation from being absorbed and then leave the body with the urine. This is only reduces some of the effects, it doesn’t prevent them. The immune system often gets severally damaged as an effect of radiation poisoning, often resulting in fatal infections. In the case of an attack with nuclear weapons many surviving people will suffer burn damages from thermal radiation as well as radiation burns, this will make people even more vulnerable to infection. Antibiotics are often given after exposure to prevent infections. Keep all wounds clean and covered.
Dirty Bombs
There is a possibility that radiological materials could be spread by being attached to a conventional bomb to cause even more damage to people. If highly radioactive material like depleted fuel from a nuclear power plant is used there would be a major problem for those how attempt to construct the bomb to actually survive making of the bomb. I have been unable to find any case where a “dirty bomb” has been used.
High Attitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP)
A nuclear explosion that takes place above 30000m creates a powerful electromagnetic pulse. A explosion that triggered high enough could take out most of the electronic systems and communication system in almost the entire continental United States or the European Union. An electromagnetic pulse has no direct effect on people. William R. Forchten describes a scenario like this in he’s fictional book “One Second After”.
Events involving Nuclear Weapons and Radiological Materials
1942 The Manhattan Project gets started with the objective of creating nuclear weapons. In July 1945 the first nuclear bomb called “Trinity” was tested in New Mexico.
1945 The Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki were attacked with nuclear weapons. The weapons used was relatively weak in comparison to the weapons of today (15 and 20 kilotons), but still about 200.000 died of the total population that was less than 500.000. This is the only cases where nuclear weapons been used against an enemy in history.
1952 The US tests the first hydrogen bomb in history named “Mike”, the bomb had an explosive force about 10,5 Megatons.
1952 there was a partial meltdown of the NRX research reactor in Canada. Most of the radioactive leakage was contained within the building housing the reactor.
1961 The Soviet Union tested the most powerful nuclear weapon in history: Tsar Bomba. The nuclear weapon had an explosive force about 60 megatons, 3 megatons is equal to all explosives used in the entire Second World War. 1 Megaton equals 1000 kilotons of explosive force. 1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT. So Hiroshima equaled: 15.000 tons, Tsar Bomba 60.000.000 tons of TNT.
1961 the nuclear reactor aboard the Soviet Strategic Submarine K-19 malfunctions and almost has a complete meltdown. Radioactive cooling water leaks from the reactor. A total meltdown was prevented but eight of the crew later died from radiation sickness.
1962 The Soviet Union placed nuclear weapons and missiles on Cuba. An armed confrontation that could have lead to a nuclear war was very close but could be diverted. This incident is often referred to as The Cuban Missile Crisis. I strongly recommend the book “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis” by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow that analysis the crisis from three different perspectives. There is also a movie about the event called “Thirteen days”.
1967 The US reached its peak in number of nuclear warheads at around 32.500 warheads.
1969 there was a partial meltdown in a small reactor in Lucens, Switzerland. The area containing the reactor was contaminated but no human was exposed. No one died as a result of the incident.
1979 The Three Mile Island accident was the most serious incident in American history until today. There was conflicting information about the accident the first days, there was some radioactive fallout but no one died as direct result. However the fallout may have caused some fatalities from cancer.
1981 Israeli aircraft bombs the Osiraq research reactor in Iraq.
1986 Mordechai Vanunu reveals evidence of Israel’s nuclear weapons program to the British press. He was kidnapped in Rome by Israel intelligence agents and brought back to Israel where he was tried for espionage and treason. He was imprisoned for 18 years and released in 2004. Israel has never gone public with their possession of nuclear weapons.
1986 The Soviet Union reaches its peak with about 45.000 nuclear warheads.
1986 there was a meltdown at the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. 56 died as direct result and hundreds of thousands was exposed to radiation. How many of these that have or will die as a result of cancer is a debated question. Many other countries also got affected by radioactive fallout. This is the worst accident at nuclear power plants until this day.
Sometime during the end of the 1980:s South Africa destroyed all its nuclear weapons. South Africa is the only nuclear power that completely destroyed their nuclear weapons, this was made public 1991.
1999 there was an incident at the Tokaimura nuclear waste storage facility in Japan. It caused radioactive leakage that killed two of the employees.
2006 North Korea makes its first nuclear weapon test. Most information indicates that this was a test with a weapon of relatively weak warhead.
In 2006 the Russian journalist Alexander Litvinenko dies after he’s been poisoned with the radioactive material polonium.
Russia has continued to develop missile systems after the end of the Cold War. One of the current missile projects Bulava are designed to penetrate missile defense systems. The Bulava missiles is intended to be carried by a new Russian class of submarines, the Borei class that is under development.
2011 A massive earthquake outside the coast of Japan results in a devastating Tsunami that resulted in massive physical destruction to the east coast of Japan. The Tsunami knocks out the back-up generators and cooling system at the Nuclear Power plant at Fukushima, during the process of trying to cool the reactors with seawater explosions and radioactive fallout has followed. The full extent of damage and radioactive fallout is still not known.
The Situation TodayExisting nuclear powers: The United States and Russia are the most powerful nuclear powers in the world, they have still have around 10.000 warheads per country. France, The United Kingdom, China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea also have nuclear weapons but not nearly as many as the US and Russia. South Africa used to have nuclear weapons but have chosen to destroy their weapons.
There is a possibility that terrorist could get there hand on a nuclear weapon but it would be very hard for a terrorist group to build a weapon from scratch. It’s my belief that the weapon would have to be either supplied by a state or stolen from a state. The security measures surrounding nuclear weapons would make that highly unlikely, but not impossible. The bombs have to be activated, if this is done wrong the modern weapons will seize to function and the process to reset them is complicated, this can often only be done at the installation where they were built. And if a weapons would be stolen the country would chase the people how had stolen it with all resources of a modern state.
If a country would supply a nuclear weapon to terrorist group there is a very high risk that the weapon would be traced back to country that supplied it and the country would most likely face massive retaliation. A terrorist attack with a high attitude EMP is even more unlikely because of need for an advanced missile as well as a nuclear war head.
US Defensive Systems
The US withdrew from the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty 2002 and has some operational systems that can intercept ballistic missiles and some that are under development. The sea based Aegis system is designed to shoot down air craft and incoming ship to ship missiles and is being developed further for this purpose. There is also the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 System that uses missiles. The THAAD system is designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles as they re-enter earths atmosphere, the entire system is mobile and be moved by transport planes. MEADS is also an ongoing project involving US, Germany and Italy. The Airborne Laser (ABL) is a project to shot down missiles with a laser mounted in aircraft, this system is under development. The ABL system and THAAD system has been covered on the show “Future Weapons” on the Discovery channel for anyone looking for more information. How effective ballistic defense systems would really be is hard to say.
There is also stationary equipment to detect radioactive particles and radiation at US port, airports, many major cities and at important installations. So even if a non state actor could get their hands on nuclear weapons it would be hard to smuggle it into the US and there is a real chance it could be intercepted before reaching its target. In addition to this almost every modern country has a series of automatic stationary systems spread over the country that can detect radioactive fallout in an early stage. This is one of the lessons learned from Chernobyl.
The use of nuclear weapons is in my opinion a very low probability scenario but the most disastrous scenarios that could ever happen.
If you want to learn about how triage is planned to work after a nuclear incident I recommend that you check out the report “The “RTR” Medical Response System for Nuclear and Radiological Mass-Casualty Incidents”.
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