After finishing the analysis about weapons of mass destruction the next series of topics will be about the conflicts we see in the world today. I hope that the readers will have been able to find some useful information and gotten a broader understanding for what kind of threats that weapons of mass destruction present. In short I would say that the risk for these types of events would take place is rather small, but the consequences can be extremely high.
The first topic out will be about a new kind of private actors: Private Military and Security Companies. The second part will be about the wars that we see in today’s world, where they have taken place and what lessons can be learned from them. The last part will address the response to today’s conflicts in form of peace building and state building missions that we seen in Iraq, Afghanistan and Bosnia to name a few examples.
Showing posts with label Weapons of mass destruction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weapons of mass destruction. Show all posts
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Biological Warfare and Disease
The third kind when it comes to weapons of mass destruction is biological weapons. Biological agents are either living microorganisms like bacteria or viruses or toxins produced by microorganisms. In the case of bacteria and viruses they may continue to spread from human to human after an attack with biological weapons have taken place.
Bacteria and Viruses are the most common form of micro organisms that causes disease. Bacteria are living organisms; infections caused by bacteria can often be treated with different forms of antibiotics. Some types of bacteria are by its very nature very resistant against antibiotics, TBC is one example. Lately some strains of antibiotics have started to develop a resistance against different forms of antibiotics. Viruses are different from bacteria: they can only live inside the living cells of living creature. The multiply by infecting a cell and making it produce viruses instead. Antibiotics don’t work on viruses, but there are some new anti viral medicines that reduces the impact of viruses.
Bacteria can also produce biological toxins; one of the most famous examples is the botulinum toxin produced by the bacteria Clostridium botulinum. This toxin is incredible toxic; 1 gram of the most dangerous variant could theoretically kill millions of people. The toxin is destroyed by heat; boiling water for a couple of minutes will destroy any toxin within the water. There is a vaccine against the bacteria and an antiserum against the toxin.
Historical Examples
1300:s Bubonic plague kills millions in Europe
1346 the Mongols catapulted infected bodies over the city walls at Kaffa in order to spread disease.
1763 during the French and Indian war the British forces gave blankets infected with smallpox to hostile Indian tribes.
1870s epidemics of Yellow Fever strikes Memphis, Tennessee. The population of the city is majorly reduced both because of deaths and because people escape from the city.
1918 The Spanish Flu turned into a pandemic that killed around 20-50 million people, that equaled around 3% of the world total population at that time.
1928 Alexander Fleming discovers Penicillin.
1939 with Fleming’s discovery Ernst Chain and Howard Florey managed to produce the first commercial penicillin. This was a major breakthrough in medicine for the treatment of bacteria.
1939-1945 During the Second World War Japanese forces in China experimented with different kinds of disease on Chinese prisoners. The Japanese also spread bubonic plague against Chinese cities. There is a lot of different data on how many that actually died from these attack and figures vary from tens of thousands to hundred of thousand dead. During the Second World War only around 1% died as result of infectious disease, this was a rapid reduction compared to the first World War, around two third of all deaths then was related to infections and disease. This decrease came as a result of better living standards and new medications.
1956-58 The Asian Flu Pandemic caused around 2 million deaths worldwide.
1968 Around one million dies from the Hong Kong flu worldwide.
1969 President Richard Nixon brings an end to the US Biological Weapon Program.
1971 – 1973 The US destroys its stockpiles of biological weapons.
1975 The Convention on the Prohibition the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (BWC) was signed by the Soviet Union and the US.
1973 The first outbreak of the disease Ebola is recorded. Some strains have had a case fatality rate over 80%, sometimes close to 90%.
1979 There was an outbreak of Anthrax in the city Sverdlovsk in the Soviet union. It was later confirmed that this outbreak was caused by an accidental leakage from a military production facility. The number of dead from this event varies from 60 an up.
1980 After an intense global vaccination program the disease Smallpox is officially declared eradicated. This one of the few diseases that mankind has been able to eradicate. The virus is however kept in laboratories in both Russia and the US today and is one of the most effective diseases that could be used as a biological weapon.
1981 The first confirmed case of HIV/AIDS is reported by the US Center for Disease and Control (CDC).
1984 an sect in India contaminated salad bars in India with salmonella, many people became sick but no one died as result.
1986 The first cases of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) also known as Mad Cow Disease is found in Animals. It was not believed that the disease could be contracted by humans at first and the number of infected animals kept increasing for a long time.
1988 The Soviet disposes much of their biological weapons by burying them instead of destroying them. There is some fear that some of this sites eventually may start to leak some of these pathogens.
There is some unconfirmed information concerning that the Soviet Union created a super plague during the 1980:s that would be resistant against all kinds of antibiotics. The Soviet Union had a very ambitious bio weapon program with tens of thousands of employees.
During the 1990s the Japnese sect Aum Shinrikyo that attacked the Tokyo Subway with nerve gas tried to develop biological weapons as well.
1992 Boris Yeltsin officially admits that the Soviet Union has continued its bio weapons program after signing the BWC in 1975 and ends Russia’s bio weapons program.
1995 The first cases of Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (CJD) was recorded, the persons effected had worked with cattle during the BSE epidemics. Around 200 persons have died so far from CJD, most of them in Great Britain. The case of BSE & CJD is examples of what can happen if government agencies don’t take threats seriously. It’s by belief that cases like this may be a factor on why we often see over reactions from government agencies, like in the current case of the Swine Flu.
1996 The HAART treatment against HIV/AIDS is introduced.
2001 After 9/11 attacks there was at least five letters containing Anthrax spores sent to three media corporations and two US senators. 22 people were confirmed contracting anthrax, five of these persons died from the disease. 45 buildings was contaminated with anthrax spores and antibiotics was given as a prophylactic measure on a massive scale to people how could have been exposed. In spore form anthrax is resistant to sun light and temperature changes. Anthrax spores may have a life time up to a hundred years.
2009 Swine Flu has become a major topic in the media. Right now there is about 620.000 confirmed cases to the World Health Organization and around 8000 that died from the disease worldwide. In comparison to the Spanish Flu 1918 and the Asian flu 1957 the real threat and mortality seems to be very low.
There has also been some accusation against the US for using smallpox against the North Korean capital during the Korean War and other biological weapons against Cuba but there have been no conclusive evidence that this have been the case.
Early Warning
A disease that is used as biological weapons does not have the same instant effect a nuclear or chemical weapon has. It may take days or even weeks before symptoms start to emerge. So there is a big chance that the people how’s exposed to a biological weapons won’t know that they been exposed before they start to get sick, and even then it may be easy to assume that disease has natural causes.
Personal Hygiene and Protection
One of the most important aspects when it comes to avoiding biological warfare and different kind of infectious diseases is personal hygiene. The importance can’t be overstressed. The most important part of personal hygiene is to clean your hands, the majority of all infections is spread when people somehow get a pathogen on their hands and touch their face, mouth or eyes. Soap and water is an excellent way to clean your hands, soap is a natural killer of different pathogens. The skin is an excellent barrier against diseases as long as it’s not damaged, if you use to much soap your hands may become dry and your skin may rupture and pathogens may enter your body. There is other alcohol based hand sanitizer that also is very effective. The combination of soap water, drying your hand and then using alcohol based disinfections is best. Remember to your entire hand and your wrists. Give extra attention to the back of your hand and your thumb, these areas is often missed. If you’re treating people with wounds use surgical gloves if possible, clean your hands before and after. Hygiene in general is very important in a crisis situation: keep your nails short, brush your teeth, use floss and fluoride mouthwash. A safe solution to use as a toilet is also important. A portable camping shower, bleach, soap, washing powder to clean cloths and shampoo may be good equipment to have in storage at your home. Facemasks may provide some protection against airborne disease, but the most important part is to not stand in front of the airflow from anyone sick that’s coughing. NBC gasmasks also offers protection against airborne attacks and disease but it’s very hard to know when an attack is actually happening; it can be days before symptoms start to appear.
Tuberculosis - TB
10 million contracts TB every year, mainly in poorly developed countries and 3-4 million die each year from the disease. The disease is highly resistant against antibiotics; the normal treatment requires three form of antibiotics to be taken every day for six months. However in many parts of the world people don’t go through with the entire treatment and this causes resistant strains of TBC. There are some strains of TBC that are resistant to all forms of antibiotics. There is also a vaccine against TBC available and new ones are being developed. The data for how effective the current vaccine are varies but in some cases it may provide a protection up to 80% and the effect is believed to last for 15 years. The vaccine can cause lethal side effects, but this is very unusual and normally happens to person how another disease or a low immune system function.
HIV/AIDS
The HIV/AIDS virus has gotten an enormous amount of attention in the Media. The HIV/AIDS virus is a Virus that attacks the human immune system and in time this causes the victims to die from secondary infections or cancer. If not treated patients normally die 10 years after they contracted the virus, the HIV/AIDS is basically deadly in all cases if not treated. There is however effective treatment that was introduced 1996 called HAART. These drugs are antiviral drugs that reduce the amount of virus people have in their system to a level that doesn’t present any health issues. There are side effects to this treatment and some people are allergic against the antiviral drugs, but most people how live in the western world don’t have health problems because of the virus. There is how ever an enormous social stigma to carry the disease and the antiviral drugs must be taken at a regular basis every day. Around 30-35 million people worldwide carry the HIV/AIDS virus, around 1,5 million of these cases are in North America. It’s been sad to many times but the best way to protect yourself is to use a condom and make regular checks at your doctor.
Cholera
Cholera is the worst form of diarrheal disease that exists. It’s a very common disease that often follows war and disasters when the sanitation systems break down. The number of people how dies in this disease are normally under 5% but the disease will seriously weaken the person how get exposed and make them vulnerable to other infections. This is one of the major causes why hygiene, clean water and sanitation are very important after a disaster; this will reduce the risk that you contract this and many other diseases. There is a vaccine that offers around 80% protection. But the effect only last a few year, then new doses are required.
Recommended vaccination:
Booster against Tetanus
Tuberculosis - TB
Hepatitis A & B
Cholera if you’re going to a high risk area.
There are also regional diseases that there are vaccines against, always talk with your doctor for advice and a recommendation.
How is most vulnerable?
In general there are some categories of people how are more vulnerable to disease then other:
· Very young children
· Very old people
· Pregnant women
· People suffering from cancer
· Untreated persons with HIV and AIDS
· People suffering from Starvation or Famine
Threat Assessment
Biological organisms are a natural part of our world and we have developed different kind of medications and vaccines to cope with these problems. Bacteria may become a very serious problem in the future if antibiotics resistance continues to increase; the life expectancy may drop sharply around the world as a result if not new effective medicines are produced. Biological weapons may be genetically designed to have this resistance but in the long perspective I believe that natural resistance against antibiotics is a larger threat than genetically modified biological weapons. Should a new disease with high mortality breakout it’s important to understand that the sanitation system today will help to reduce the spread compared to the spread of plague in the 1300s. But modern communications like air travel may spread a disease very fast. It’s my belief that the current pandemic of swine flu will increase most countries ability to handle this form of crisis because valuable lessons have been learnt and people in general have become more aware of the threat and the importance of especially hand hygiene.
Bacteria and Viruses are the most common form of micro organisms that causes disease. Bacteria are living organisms; infections caused by bacteria can often be treated with different forms of antibiotics. Some types of bacteria are by its very nature very resistant against antibiotics, TBC is one example. Lately some strains of antibiotics have started to develop a resistance against different forms of antibiotics. Viruses are different from bacteria: they can only live inside the living cells of living creature. The multiply by infecting a cell and making it produce viruses instead. Antibiotics don’t work on viruses, but there are some new anti viral medicines that reduces the impact of viruses.
Bacteria can also produce biological toxins; one of the most famous examples is the botulinum toxin produced by the bacteria Clostridium botulinum. This toxin is incredible toxic; 1 gram of the most dangerous variant could theoretically kill millions of people. The toxin is destroyed by heat; boiling water for a couple of minutes will destroy any toxin within the water. There is a vaccine against the bacteria and an antiserum against the toxin.
Historical Examples
1300:s Bubonic plague kills millions in Europe
1346 the Mongols catapulted infected bodies over the city walls at Kaffa in order to spread disease.
1763 during the French and Indian war the British forces gave blankets infected with smallpox to hostile Indian tribes.
1870s epidemics of Yellow Fever strikes Memphis, Tennessee. The population of the city is majorly reduced both because of deaths and because people escape from the city.
1918 The Spanish Flu turned into a pandemic that killed around 20-50 million people, that equaled around 3% of the world total population at that time.
1928 Alexander Fleming discovers Penicillin.
1939 with Fleming’s discovery Ernst Chain and Howard Florey managed to produce the first commercial penicillin. This was a major breakthrough in medicine for the treatment of bacteria.
1939-1945 During the Second World War Japanese forces in China experimented with different kinds of disease on Chinese prisoners. The Japanese also spread bubonic plague against Chinese cities. There is a lot of different data on how many that actually died from these attack and figures vary from tens of thousands to hundred of thousand dead. During the Second World War only around 1% died as result of infectious disease, this was a rapid reduction compared to the first World War, around two third of all deaths then was related to infections and disease. This decrease came as a result of better living standards and new medications.
1956-58 The Asian Flu Pandemic caused around 2 million deaths worldwide.
1968 Around one million dies from the Hong Kong flu worldwide.
1969 President Richard Nixon brings an end to the US Biological Weapon Program.
1971 – 1973 The US destroys its stockpiles of biological weapons.
1975 The Convention on the Prohibition the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (BWC) was signed by the Soviet Union and the US.
1973 The first outbreak of the disease Ebola is recorded. Some strains have had a case fatality rate over 80%, sometimes close to 90%.
1979 There was an outbreak of Anthrax in the city Sverdlovsk in the Soviet union. It was later confirmed that this outbreak was caused by an accidental leakage from a military production facility. The number of dead from this event varies from 60 an up.
1980 After an intense global vaccination program the disease Smallpox is officially declared eradicated. This one of the few diseases that mankind has been able to eradicate. The virus is however kept in laboratories in both Russia and the US today and is one of the most effective diseases that could be used as a biological weapon.
1981 The first confirmed case of HIV/AIDS is reported by the US Center for Disease and Control (CDC).
1984 an sect in India contaminated salad bars in India with salmonella, many people became sick but no one died as result.
1986 The first cases of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) also known as Mad Cow Disease is found in Animals. It was not believed that the disease could be contracted by humans at first and the number of infected animals kept increasing for a long time.
1988 The Soviet disposes much of their biological weapons by burying them instead of destroying them. There is some fear that some of this sites eventually may start to leak some of these pathogens.
There is some unconfirmed information concerning that the Soviet Union created a super plague during the 1980:s that would be resistant against all kinds of antibiotics. The Soviet Union had a very ambitious bio weapon program with tens of thousands of employees.
During the 1990s the Japnese sect Aum Shinrikyo that attacked the Tokyo Subway with nerve gas tried to develop biological weapons as well.
1992 Boris Yeltsin officially admits that the Soviet Union has continued its bio weapons program after signing the BWC in 1975 and ends Russia’s bio weapons program.
1995 The first cases of Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (CJD) was recorded, the persons effected had worked with cattle during the BSE epidemics. Around 200 persons have died so far from CJD, most of them in Great Britain. The case of BSE & CJD is examples of what can happen if government agencies don’t take threats seriously. It’s by belief that cases like this may be a factor on why we often see over reactions from government agencies, like in the current case of the Swine Flu.
1996 The HAART treatment against HIV/AIDS is introduced.
2001 After 9/11 attacks there was at least five letters containing Anthrax spores sent to three media corporations and two US senators. 22 people were confirmed contracting anthrax, five of these persons died from the disease. 45 buildings was contaminated with anthrax spores and antibiotics was given as a prophylactic measure on a massive scale to people how could have been exposed. In spore form anthrax is resistant to sun light and temperature changes. Anthrax spores may have a life time up to a hundred years.
2009 Swine Flu has become a major topic in the media. Right now there is about 620.000 confirmed cases to the World Health Organization and around 8000 that died from the disease worldwide. In comparison to the Spanish Flu 1918 and the Asian flu 1957 the real threat and mortality seems to be very low.
There has also been some accusation against the US for using smallpox against the North Korean capital during the Korean War and other biological weapons against Cuba but there have been no conclusive evidence that this have been the case.
Early Warning
A disease that is used as biological weapons does not have the same instant effect a nuclear or chemical weapon has. It may take days or even weeks before symptoms start to emerge. So there is a big chance that the people how’s exposed to a biological weapons won’t know that they been exposed before they start to get sick, and even then it may be easy to assume that disease has natural causes.
Personal Hygiene and Protection
One of the most important aspects when it comes to avoiding biological warfare and different kind of infectious diseases is personal hygiene. The importance can’t be overstressed. The most important part of personal hygiene is to clean your hands, the majority of all infections is spread when people somehow get a pathogen on their hands and touch their face, mouth or eyes. Soap and water is an excellent way to clean your hands, soap is a natural killer of different pathogens. The skin is an excellent barrier against diseases as long as it’s not damaged, if you use to much soap your hands may become dry and your skin may rupture and pathogens may enter your body. There is other alcohol based hand sanitizer that also is very effective. The combination of soap water, drying your hand and then using alcohol based disinfections is best. Remember to your entire hand and your wrists. Give extra attention to the back of your hand and your thumb, these areas is often missed. If you’re treating people with wounds use surgical gloves if possible, clean your hands before and after. Hygiene in general is very important in a crisis situation: keep your nails short, brush your teeth, use floss and fluoride mouthwash. A safe solution to use as a toilet is also important. A portable camping shower, bleach, soap, washing powder to clean cloths and shampoo may be good equipment to have in storage at your home. Facemasks may provide some protection against airborne disease, but the most important part is to not stand in front of the airflow from anyone sick that’s coughing. NBC gasmasks also offers protection against airborne attacks and disease but it’s very hard to know when an attack is actually happening; it can be days before symptoms start to appear.
Tuberculosis - TB
10 million contracts TB every year, mainly in poorly developed countries and 3-4 million die each year from the disease. The disease is highly resistant against antibiotics; the normal treatment requires three form of antibiotics to be taken every day for six months. However in many parts of the world people don’t go through with the entire treatment and this causes resistant strains of TBC. There are some strains of TBC that are resistant to all forms of antibiotics. There is also a vaccine against TBC available and new ones are being developed. The data for how effective the current vaccine are varies but in some cases it may provide a protection up to 80% and the effect is believed to last for 15 years. The vaccine can cause lethal side effects, but this is very unusual and normally happens to person how another disease or a low immune system function.
HIV/AIDS
The HIV/AIDS virus has gotten an enormous amount of attention in the Media. The HIV/AIDS virus is a Virus that attacks the human immune system and in time this causes the victims to die from secondary infections or cancer. If not treated patients normally die 10 years after they contracted the virus, the HIV/AIDS is basically deadly in all cases if not treated. There is however effective treatment that was introduced 1996 called HAART. These drugs are antiviral drugs that reduce the amount of virus people have in their system to a level that doesn’t present any health issues. There are side effects to this treatment and some people are allergic against the antiviral drugs, but most people how live in the western world don’t have health problems because of the virus. There is how ever an enormous social stigma to carry the disease and the antiviral drugs must be taken at a regular basis every day. Around 30-35 million people worldwide carry the HIV/AIDS virus, around 1,5 million of these cases are in North America. It’s been sad to many times but the best way to protect yourself is to use a condom and make regular checks at your doctor.
Cholera
Cholera is the worst form of diarrheal disease that exists. It’s a very common disease that often follows war and disasters when the sanitation systems break down. The number of people how dies in this disease are normally under 5% but the disease will seriously weaken the person how get exposed and make them vulnerable to other infections. This is one of the major causes why hygiene, clean water and sanitation are very important after a disaster; this will reduce the risk that you contract this and many other diseases. There is a vaccine that offers around 80% protection. But the effect only last a few year, then new doses are required.
Recommended vaccination:
Booster against Tetanus
Tuberculosis - TB
Hepatitis A & B
Cholera if you’re going to a high risk area.
There are also regional diseases that there are vaccines against, always talk with your doctor for advice and a recommendation.
How is most vulnerable?
In general there are some categories of people how are more vulnerable to disease then other:
· Very young children
· Very old people
· Pregnant women
· People suffering from cancer
· Untreated persons with HIV and AIDS
· People suffering from Starvation or Famine
Threat Assessment
Biological organisms are a natural part of our world and we have developed different kind of medications and vaccines to cope with these problems. Bacteria may become a very serious problem in the future if antibiotics resistance continues to increase; the life expectancy may drop sharply around the world as a result if not new effective medicines are produced. Biological weapons may be genetically designed to have this resistance but in the long perspective I believe that natural resistance against antibiotics is a larger threat than genetically modified biological weapons. Should a new disease with high mortality breakout it’s important to understand that the sanitation system today will help to reduce the spread compared to the spread of plague in the 1300s. But modern communications like air travel may spread a disease very fast. It’s my belief that the current pandemic of swine flu will increase most countries ability to handle this form of crisis because valuable lessons have been learnt and people in general have become more aware of the threat and the importance of especially hand hygiene.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Dangers
Nuclear weapons are the most destructive weapons that mankind has ever created. They have a destructive capability that excites all other weapons. Nuclear weapons creates both enormous amount of thermal energy, a blast wave, initial radiation and radioactive fallout plus and electromagnetic pulse. There are many potential delivery systems like air craft, missiles, bombs, cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Many of the US and Russian weapons are based on strategic submarines. Modern intercontinental ballistic missiles can in some cases carry more than one nuclear war head, this means that one missile can strike more than one target. This is often referred to as multiply independently targetable reentry vehicles or MIRVs. This means that both Russia and the US can have several hundred nuclear warheads on each strategic submarine. The strategic submarines mean that even if an surprise attack against the US or Russia would be successful they could retaliate with hundred, maybe even thousands of nuclear weapons against an attacker. The possibility to destroy an enemy in case of an attack is called MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction.
Radiation
Three types of different radiation is the major problem in Nuclear or radiological scenario: Alfa particles, Beta particles and Gamma rays. Alfa particles have a very low penetration power; they can’t penetrate the skin on the body. But if you inhale Alfa particles into your lungs, drink contaminated water, eat contaminated food or have a cut in your skin you may suffer serious damage from Alfa particles. Beta particles have a slightly higher penetration capability and can cause damage to unprotected skin that resembles the kind of wounds you attract from burn damages. Regular clothing gives some protection but the best protection is some kind of rubber or plastic clothing. Gamma rays have a very high penetration power and the cant really be stopped, the radiation dose can only be reduced by various materials. Materials with a high density like lead or concrete gives the best protection against gamma rays. Neutron radiation is similar to gamma rays with a high penetration.
Radiation Sickness
Radiation causes damage to the cells of the body, if the dose of radiation is big enough the person will become sick, even die if the dose is big enough. The chance of contracting cancer and tumors also increases if persons are submitted to radiation. Early symptoms include fatigue, loss of appetite, being tiered and vomiting.
Protection
A gasmask prevents radioactive Alfa and Beta particles from entering your body trough the lungs. If a nuclear or radiological situation would happen cover up with anything you can find, normal cloths is better than nothing, then get into cover as fast as you can. A basement in a building or fallout shelter is the best option. If no such cover is available, pick the most central location on the ground floors in a building. Use the same routine as with chemical warfare; close all windows, doors and ventilation. Use tape or whatever you can find to make the protection better. Clean your entire body to remove as much radioactive particles as possible. Find out where your nearest fallout shelter or Bomb shelter is located.
Treatment
There is prophylactic treatment that can be used in advance to exposure. Iodide tablets decreases the amount of radiation that the body accumulates by preventing radiation from being absorbed and then leave the body with the urine. This is only reduces some of the effects, it doesn’t prevent them. The immune system often gets severally damaged as an effect of radiation poisoning, often resulting in fatal infections. In the case of an attack with nuclear weapons many surviving people will suffer burn damages from thermal radiation as well as radiation burns, this will make people even more vulnerable to infection. Antibiotics are often given after exposure to prevent infections. Keep all wounds clean and covered.
Dirty Bombs
There is a possibility that radiological materials could be spread by being attached to a conventional bomb to cause even more damage to people. If highly radioactive material like depleted fuel from a nuclear power plant is used there would be a major problem for those how attempt to construct the bomb to actually survive making of the bomb. I have been unable to find any case where a “dirty bomb” has been used.
High Attitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP)
A nuclear explosion that takes place above 30000m creates a powerful electromagnetic pulse. A explosion that triggered high enough could take out most of the electronic systems and communication system in almost the entire continental United States or the European Union. An electromagnetic pulse has no direct effect on people. William R. Forchten describes a scenario like this in he’s fictional book “One Second After”.
Events involving Nuclear Weapons and Radiological Materials
1942 The Manhattan Project gets started with the objective of creating nuclear weapons. In July 1945 the first nuclear bomb called “Trinity” was tested in New Mexico.
1945 The Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki were attacked with nuclear weapons. The weapons used was relatively weak in comparison to the weapons of today (15 and 20 kilotons), but still about 200.000 died of the total population that was less than 500.000. This is the only cases where nuclear weapons been used against an enemy in history.
1952 The US tests the first hydrogen bomb in history named “Mike”, the bomb had an explosive force about 10,5 Megatons.
1952 there was a partial meltdown of the NRX research reactor in Canada. Most of the radioactive leakage was contained within the building housing the reactor.
1961 The Soviet Union tested the most powerful nuclear weapon in history: Tsar Bomba. The nuclear weapon had an explosive force about 60 megatons, 3 megatons is equal to all explosives used in the entire Second World War. 1 Megaton equals 1000 kilotons of explosive force. 1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT. So Hiroshima equaled: 15.000 tons, Tsar Bomba 60.000.000 tons of TNT.
1961 the nuclear reactor aboard the Soviet Strategic Submarine K-19 malfunctions and almost has a complete meltdown. Radioactive cooling water leaks from the reactor. A total meltdown was prevented but eight of the crew later died from radiation sickness.
1962 The Soviet Union placed nuclear weapons and missiles on Cuba. An armed confrontation that could have lead to a nuclear war was very close but could be diverted. This incident is often referred to as The Cuban Missile Crisis. I strongly recommend the book “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis” by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow that analysis the crisis from three different perspectives. There is also a movie about the event called “Thirteen days”.
1967 The US reached its peak in number of nuclear warheads at around 32.500 warheads.
1969 there was a partial meltdown in a small reactor in Lucens, Switzerland. The area containing the reactor was contaminated but no human was exposed. No one died as a result of the incident.
1979 The Three Mile Island accident was the most serious incident in American history until today. There was conflicting information about the accident the first days, there was some radioactive fallout but no one died as direct result. However the fallout may have caused some fatalities from cancer.
1981 Israeli aircraft bombs the Osiraq research reactor in Iraq.
1986 Mordechai Vanunu reveals evidence of Israel’s nuclear weapons program to the British press. He was kidnapped in Rome by Israel intelligence agents and brought back to Israel where he was tried for espionage and treason. He was imprisoned for 18 years and released in 2004. Israel has never gone public with their possession of nuclear weapons.
1986 The Soviet Union reaches its peak with about 45.000 nuclear warheads.
1986 there was a meltdown at the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. 56 died as direct result and hundreds of thousands was exposed to radiation. How many of these that have or will die as a result of cancer is a debated question. Many other countries also got affected by radioactive fallout. This is the worst accident at nuclear power plants until this day.
Sometime during the end of the 1980:s South Africa destroyed all its nuclear weapons. South Africa is the only nuclear power that completely destroyed their nuclear weapons, this was made public 1991.
1999 there was an incident at the Tokaimura nuclear waste storage facility in Japan. It caused radioactive leakage that killed two of the employees.
2006 North Korea makes its first nuclear weapon test. Most information indicates that this was a test with a weapon of relatively weak warhead.
In 2006 the Russian journalist Alexander Litvinenko dies after he’s been poisoned with the radioactive material polonium.
Russia has continued to develop missile systems after the end of the Cold War. One of the current missile projects Bulava are designed to penetrate missile defense systems. The Bulava missiles is intended to be carried by a new Russian class of submarines, the Borei class that is under development.
Existing nuclear powers: The United States and Russia are the most powerful nuclear powers in the world, they have still have around 10.000 warheads per country. France, The United Kingdom, China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea also have nuclear weapons but not nearly as many as the US and Russia. South Africa used to have nuclear weapons but have chosen to destroy their weapons.
There is a possibility that terrorist could get there hand on a nuclear weapon but it would be very hard for a terrorist group to build a weapon from scratch. It’s my belief that the weapon would have to be either supplied by a state or stolen from a state. The security measures surrounding nuclear weapons would make that highly unlikely, but not impossible. The bombs have to be activated, if this is done wrong the modern weapons will seize to function and the process to reset them is complicated, this can often only be done at the installation where they were built. And if a weapons would be stolen the country would chase the people how had stolen it with all resources of a modern state.
If a country would supply a nuclear weapon to terrorist group there is a very high risk that the weapon would be traced back to country that supplied it and the country would most likely face massive retaliation. A terrorist attack with a high attitude EMP is even more unlikely because of need for an advanced missile as well as a nuclear war head.
US Defensive Systems
The US withdrew from the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty 2002 and has some operational systems that can intercept ballistic missiles and some that are under development. The sea based Aegis system is designed to shoot down air craft and incoming ship to ship missiles and is being developed further for this purpose. There is also the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 System that uses missiles. The THAAD system is designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles as they re-enter earths atmosphere, the entire system is mobile and be moved by transport planes. MEADS is also an ongoing project involving US, Germany and Italy. The Airborne Laser (ABL) is a project to shot down missiles with a laser mounted in aircraft, this system is under development. The ABL system and THAAD system has been covered on the show “Future Weapons” on the Discovery channel for anyone looking for more information. How effective ballistic defense systems would really be is hard to say.
There is also stationary equipment to detect radioactive particles and radiation at US port, airports, many major cities and at important installations. So even if a non state actor could get their hands on nuclear weapons it would be hard to smuggle it into the US and there is a real chance it could be intercepted before reaching its target. In addition to this almost every modern country has a series of automatic stationary systems spread over the country that can detect radioactive fallout in an early stage. This is one of the lessons learned from Chernobyl.
The use of nuclear weapons is in my opinion a very low probability scenario but the most disastrous scenarios that could ever happen.
If you want to learn about how triage is planned to work after a nuclear incident I recommend that you check out the report “The “RTR” Medical Response System for Nuclear and Radiological Mass-Casualty Incidents”.
Radiation
Three types of different radiation is the major problem in Nuclear or radiological scenario: Alfa particles, Beta particles and Gamma rays. Alfa particles have a very low penetration power; they can’t penetrate the skin on the body. But if you inhale Alfa particles into your lungs, drink contaminated water, eat contaminated food or have a cut in your skin you may suffer serious damage from Alfa particles. Beta particles have a slightly higher penetration capability and can cause damage to unprotected skin that resembles the kind of wounds you attract from burn damages. Regular clothing gives some protection but the best protection is some kind of rubber or plastic clothing. Gamma rays have a very high penetration power and the cant really be stopped, the radiation dose can only be reduced by various materials. Materials with a high density like lead or concrete gives the best protection against gamma rays. Neutron radiation is similar to gamma rays with a high penetration.
Radiation Sickness
Radiation causes damage to the cells of the body, if the dose of radiation is big enough the person will become sick, even die if the dose is big enough. The chance of contracting cancer and tumors also increases if persons are submitted to radiation. Early symptoms include fatigue, loss of appetite, being tiered and vomiting.
Protection
A gasmask prevents radioactive Alfa and Beta particles from entering your body trough the lungs. If a nuclear or radiological situation would happen cover up with anything you can find, normal cloths is better than nothing, then get into cover as fast as you can. A basement in a building or fallout shelter is the best option. If no such cover is available, pick the most central location on the ground floors in a building. Use the same routine as with chemical warfare; close all windows, doors and ventilation. Use tape or whatever you can find to make the protection better. Clean your entire body to remove as much radioactive particles as possible. Find out where your nearest fallout shelter or Bomb shelter is located.
Treatment
There is prophylactic treatment that can be used in advance to exposure. Iodide tablets decreases the amount of radiation that the body accumulates by preventing radiation from being absorbed and then leave the body with the urine. This is only reduces some of the effects, it doesn’t prevent them. The immune system often gets severally damaged as an effect of radiation poisoning, often resulting in fatal infections. In the case of an attack with nuclear weapons many surviving people will suffer burn damages from thermal radiation as well as radiation burns, this will make people even more vulnerable to infection. Antibiotics are often given after exposure to prevent infections. Keep all wounds clean and covered.
Dirty Bombs
There is a possibility that radiological materials could be spread by being attached to a conventional bomb to cause even more damage to people. If highly radioactive material like depleted fuel from a nuclear power plant is used there would be a major problem for those how attempt to construct the bomb to actually survive making of the bomb. I have been unable to find any case where a “dirty bomb” has been used.
High Attitude Electro Magnetic Pulse (HEMP)
A nuclear explosion that takes place above 30000m creates a powerful electromagnetic pulse. A explosion that triggered high enough could take out most of the electronic systems and communication system in almost the entire continental United States or the European Union. An electromagnetic pulse has no direct effect on people. William R. Forchten describes a scenario like this in he’s fictional book “One Second After”.
Events involving Nuclear Weapons and Radiological Materials
1942 The Manhattan Project gets started with the objective of creating nuclear weapons. In July 1945 the first nuclear bomb called “Trinity” was tested in New Mexico.
1945 The Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki were attacked with nuclear weapons. The weapons used was relatively weak in comparison to the weapons of today (15 and 20 kilotons), but still about 200.000 died of the total population that was less than 500.000. This is the only cases where nuclear weapons been used against an enemy in history.
1952 The US tests the first hydrogen bomb in history named “Mike”, the bomb had an explosive force about 10,5 Megatons.
1952 there was a partial meltdown of the NRX research reactor in Canada. Most of the radioactive leakage was contained within the building housing the reactor.
1961 The Soviet Union tested the most powerful nuclear weapon in history: Tsar Bomba. The nuclear weapon had an explosive force about 60 megatons, 3 megatons is equal to all explosives used in the entire Second World War. 1 Megaton equals 1000 kilotons of explosive force. 1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT. So Hiroshima equaled: 15.000 tons, Tsar Bomba 60.000.000 tons of TNT.
1961 the nuclear reactor aboard the Soviet Strategic Submarine K-19 malfunctions and almost has a complete meltdown. Radioactive cooling water leaks from the reactor. A total meltdown was prevented but eight of the crew later died from radiation sickness.
1962 The Soviet Union placed nuclear weapons and missiles on Cuba. An armed confrontation that could have lead to a nuclear war was very close but could be diverted. This incident is often referred to as The Cuban Missile Crisis. I strongly recommend the book “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis” by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow that analysis the crisis from three different perspectives. There is also a movie about the event called “Thirteen days”.
1967 The US reached its peak in number of nuclear warheads at around 32.500 warheads.
1969 there was a partial meltdown in a small reactor in Lucens, Switzerland. The area containing the reactor was contaminated but no human was exposed. No one died as a result of the incident.
1979 The Three Mile Island accident was the most serious incident in American history until today. There was conflicting information about the accident the first days, there was some radioactive fallout but no one died as direct result. However the fallout may have caused some fatalities from cancer.
1981 Israeli aircraft bombs the Osiraq research reactor in Iraq.
1986 Mordechai Vanunu reveals evidence of Israel’s nuclear weapons program to the British press. He was kidnapped in Rome by Israel intelligence agents and brought back to Israel where he was tried for espionage and treason. He was imprisoned for 18 years and released in 2004. Israel has never gone public with their possession of nuclear weapons.
1986 The Soviet Union reaches its peak with about 45.000 nuclear warheads.
1986 there was a meltdown at the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. 56 died as direct result and hundreds of thousands was exposed to radiation. How many of these that have or will die as a result of cancer is a debated question. Many other countries also got affected by radioactive fallout. This is the worst accident at nuclear power plants until this day.
Sometime during the end of the 1980:s South Africa destroyed all its nuclear weapons. South Africa is the only nuclear power that completely destroyed their nuclear weapons, this was made public 1991.
1999 there was an incident at the Tokaimura nuclear waste storage facility in Japan. It caused radioactive leakage that killed two of the employees.
2006 North Korea makes its first nuclear weapon test. Most information indicates that this was a test with a weapon of relatively weak warhead.
In 2006 the Russian journalist Alexander Litvinenko dies after he’s been poisoned with the radioactive material polonium.
Russia has continued to develop missile systems after the end of the Cold War. One of the current missile projects Bulava are designed to penetrate missile defense systems. The Bulava missiles is intended to be carried by a new Russian class of submarines, the Borei class that is under development.
2011 A massive earthquake outside the coast of Japan results in a devastating Tsunami that resulted in massive physical destruction to the east coast of Japan. The Tsunami knocks out the back-up generators and cooling system at the Nuclear Power plant at Fukushima, during the process of trying to cool the reactors with seawater explosions and radioactive fallout has followed. The full extent of damage and radioactive fallout is still not known.
The Situation TodayExisting nuclear powers: The United States and Russia are the most powerful nuclear powers in the world, they have still have around 10.000 warheads per country. France, The United Kingdom, China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea also have nuclear weapons but not nearly as many as the US and Russia. South Africa used to have nuclear weapons but have chosen to destroy their weapons.
There is a possibility that terrorist could get there hand on a nuclear weapon but it would be very hard for a terrorist group to build a weapon from scratch. It’s my belief that the weapon would have to be either supplied by a state or stolen from a state. The security measures surrounding nuclear weapons would make that highly unlikely, but not impossible. The bombs have to be activated, if this is done wrong the modern weapons will seize to function and the process to reset them is complicated, this can often only be done at the installation where they were built. And if a weapons would be stolen the country would chase the people how had stolen it with all resources of a modern state.
If a country would supply a nuclear weapon to terrorist group there is a very high risk that the weapon would be traced back to country that supplied it and the country would most likely face massive retaliation. A terrorist attack with a high attitude EMP is even more unlikely because of need for an advanced missile as well as a nuclear war head.
US Defensive Systems
The US withdrew from the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty 2002 and has some operational systems that can intercept ballistic missiles and some that are under development. The sea based Aegis system is designed to shoot down air craft and incoming ship to ship missiles and is being developed further for this purpose. There is also the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 System that uses missiles. The THAAD system is designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles as they re-enter earths atmosphere, the entire system is mobile and be moved by transport planes. MEADS is also an ongoing project involving US, Germany and Italy. The Airborne Laser (ABL) is a project to shot down missiles with a laser mounted in aircraft, this system is under development. The ABL system and THAAD system has been covered on the show “Future Weapons” on the Discovery channel for anyone looking for more information. How effective ballistic defense systems would really be is hard to say.
There is also stationary equipment to detect radioactive particles and radiation at US port, airports, many major cities and at important installations. So even if a non state actor could get their hands on nuclear weapons it would be hard to smuggle it into the US and there is a real chance it could be intercepted before reaching its target. In addition to this almost every modern country has a series of automatic stationary systems spread over the country that can detect radioactive fallout in an early stage. This is one of the lessons learned from Chernobyl.
The use of nuclear weapons is in my opinion a very low probability scenario but the most disastrous scenarios that could ever happen.
If you want to learn about how triage is planned to work after a nuclear incident I recommend that you check out the report “The “RTR” Medical Response System for Nuclear and Radiological Mass-Casualty Incidents”.
Monday, November 16, 2009
The Threat from Chemical Warfare
Chemical Warfare
Weapons of Mass Destruction are often divided in to three categories: NBC: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare. As a first step in covering the different kinds of Weapons of Mass Destruction I’m going to write about chemical warfare. Chemical weapons have different kinds of effects, but normally they kill, injure or incapacitates. Nerve agents are the most lethal of the chemical weapons. They are extremely poisonous, have no color and only a weak scent. If they are inhaled they may kill in a matter of minutes, many of the nerve agents may penetrated the skin, and in this case it may be up to half an hour before symptoms appear. To be protected against nerve agents a full body suit is required and a gasmask. To protect against nerve agents there is an also prophylactic tablet that can be taken before exposure and auto injectors that may be taken after exposure.
Examples of Events and Large Scale Accidents
1914-1918 During The First World War chemical weapons was used extensively by both sides and over a million were injured and over one hundred thousand killed by this type of weapon.
1939-1945 During the Second World War Poisonous gas was used in the Nazi concentration camps on a massive scale as one way of many to kill millions. Both the US and Germany has large stockpiles of chemical weapons, but they never came in to use during the Second World War.
1955-1975 During the Vietnam War chemical agents were used by the American forces to clear areas from vegetation, the most famous of these chemicals agents was Agent Orange.
1980-1988 The war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980:s was one of the most violent conflicts of the Cold War, both sides used chemical weapons in the war. The war was the first conflict when nerve gas was used as weapons of war.
1984 the worst chemical accident in history to place in the city Bhopal in India. The accident happened at night and around 2500 died and around 50000 was injured. The chemical agents were a leakage from a factory producing pesticides. Large scale chemical accidents are unusual but small scale accident is more common.
Saddam Hussein’s regime used nerve gas and mustard gas against the Kurdish city Halabja 1988 after the Iran-Iraq war, an attack that killed thousands of civilians and many more was injured. When the first Gulf War started 1991 there was a big fear that Iraq would use chemical weapons against the coalition forces. This was a much pressured situation for the Iraqi regime but they still chose not to employ chemical weapons.
1995 The Attack against the Tokyo Subway by the sect Aum Shinrikyo is the most devastating attack with a nerve gas by a non state actor in history. The delivery system was very primitive but the attack still killed twelve persons and injured a couple of thousands. The Cult had also attacked another Japanese city in 1994 where seven was killed and a couple of hundred was injured.
2002 Russian forces employed a chemical agent to incapacitate both the Chechnya rebels and the hostages in a Moscow theater. Over 100 hostages died as a result.
2003 The fear that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was an important factor when the decision was made to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein’s regime 2003.
Teargas or mace is often used a riot control agent in various countries. Teargas is normally not lethal and incapacities the people how get affected by the gas. The difference between the level of exposure that incapacitates people and the level that is lethal is very big. For a dose to be lethal exposure must normally take place within a closed are without circulation of the air. This is the chemical weapon that you are most likely to get exposed to in my opinion. Normally the symptoms from the gases are gone within half an hour.
Transports of Chemical Agents
A potential risk comes from chemical agents that are being transported. The containers are constructed to withstand accidents so serious consequences are unusual, but nothing is perfect and accident in a high density populated area could have disastrous consequences. Transport of dangerous chemical agents is also a potential target for antagonistic attacks like terrorism or crime.
The Threat Today
Chemical Weapon Conventions means that both the US and Russia are reducing and will completely remove their possession of lethal chemical weapons. The US has stopped the production of chemical weapons 1990 and both the US and Russia is reducing their stockpiles but the progress is slow. The last figures I’ve seen indicates that the US has about 22800 tons of chemical agents and Russia about 40000 tons of chemical agents. The US Stockpile mostly contains VX, Mustard gas and Sarin, The Russian stockpile around 80% nerve agents.
Other countries that are believed to have chemical weapons or the capacity to manufacture them are: Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, China, India, Burma, North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Algeria and Libya.
The threat may increase because of the increased knowledge in the world and access to recipes for different chemical weapons, especially trough the internet. This can mean that non state actors may create this kind of weapons easier than before. There are still big problems to spread these kinds of weapons in large scale, something that the attacks in Tokyo showed.
How to Protect Yourself
If you are in a area that is directly the first indications you will get is most likely symptoms from different person around, maybe even from yourself. This first signs YOU have to take seriously and get into safety. If a large scale attack with chemical weapons would take place in an area where you are its important that you try to get away from the affected area or get inside a building for some protection. Put on cloths to protect exposed skin and cover your mouth with and some cloth to reduce the exposure. The direction of the wind is one of the absolutely most important factors; don’t try to escape in the same direction as the wind. There is sophisticated equipment for detection; many potential targets in the US have automatic detection equipment that will give an early warning quickly in case of an attack. If you suspect that an attack is under way, turn on your radio and listen to messages from government agencies.
If you are at home or another building when an attack with chemical weapons, an accident at a chemical industry or transport would take place; close all doors and windows. Then close all ventilation and use tape, towels or whatever you to stop make doors and windows more secure. Preparing for this and practicing for this in my opinion the most important step you can take as a private citizen. Also learn where the nearest shelters with a protection for the public can be found. A gasmask may be a good addition, but in a worst case scenario where a military nerve agent would be used it doesn’t offer enough protection. If you do chose to buy a gasmask the most important part is that it’s airtight and fits your face, the best way to try this is to take part in an exercise where mace is being used. To protect the rest of your body you can improvise protection by using plastic or rubber clothing and use tape to seal the areas where the clothing meet. Remember that you have to safely dispose of the clothing you been wearing and wash your body very careful if you been exposed to chemical agents.
Attacks with chemical weapons are in my opinion a low probability scenario that could have really high consequences. But there are some examples of chemical weapons being used by non state actors.
I would like to thank the member Isopsycho from Survialist boards for some additional advice about how you can protect yourself from chemical agents. I also would like to recommend the book "Weapons of Mass Destruction" by Mary Byrd Davis & Arthur H. Purcell as good reference book on the subject.
Weapons of Mass Destruction are often divided in to three categories: NBC: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare. As a first step in covering the different kinds of Weapons of Mass Destruction I’m going to write about chemical warfare. Chemical weapons have different kinds of effects, but normally they kill, injure or incapacitates. Nerve agents are the most lethal of the chemical weapons. They are extremely poisonous, have no color and only a weak scent. If they are inhaled they may kill in a matter of minutes, many of the nerve agents may penetrated the skin, and in this case it may be up to half an hour before symptoms appear. To be protected against nerve agents a full body suit is required and a gasmask. To protect against nerve agents there is an also prophylactic tablet that can be taken before exposure and auto injectors that may be taken after exposure.
Examples of Events and Large Scale Accidents
1914-1918 During The First World War chemical weapons was used extensively by both sides and over a million were injured and over one hundred thousand killed by this type of weapon.
1939-1945 During the Second World War Poisonous gas was used in the Nazi concentration camps on a massive scale as one way of many to kill millions. Both the US and Germany has large stockpiles of chemical weapons, but they never came in to use during the Second World War.
1955-1975 During the Vietnam War chemical agents were used by the American forces to clear areas from vegetation, the most famous of these chemicals agents was Agent Orange.
1980-1988 The war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980:s was one of the most violent conflicts of the Cold War, both sides used chemical weapons in the war. The war was the first conflict when nerve gas was used as weapons of war.
1984 the worst chemical accident in history to place in the city Bhopal in India. The accident happened at night and around 2500 died and around 50000 was injured. The chemical agents were a leakage from a factory producing pesticides. Large scale chemical accidents are unusual but small scale accident is more common.
Saddam Hussein’s regime used nerve gas and mustard gas against the Kurdish city Halabja 1988 after the Iran-Iraq war, an attack that killed thousands of civilians and many more was injured. When the first Gulf War started 1991 there was a big fear that Iraq would use chemical weapons against the coalition forces. This was a much pressured situation for the Iraqi regime but they still chose not to employ chemical weapons.
1995 The Attack against the Tokyo Subway by the sect Aum Shinrikyo is the most devastating attack with a nerve gas by a non state actor in history. The delivery system was very primitive but the attack still killed twelve persons and injured a couple of thousands. The Cult had also attacked another Japanese city in 1994 where seven was killed and a couple of hundred was injured.
2002 Russian forces employed a chemical agent to incapacitate both the Chechnya rebels and the hostages in a Moscow theater. Over 100 hostages died as a result.
2003 The fear that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was an important factor when the decision was made to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein’s regime 2003.
Teargas or mace is often used a riot control agent in various countries. Teargas is normally not lethal and incapacities the people how get affected by the gas. The difference between the level of exposure that incapacitates people and the level that is lethal is very big. For a dose to be lethal exposure must normally take place within a closed are without circulation of the air. This is the chemical weapon that you are most likely to get exposed to in my opinion. Normally the symptoms from the gases are gone within half an hour.
Transports of Chemical Agents
A potential risk comes from chemical agents that are being transported. The containers are constructed to withstand accidents so serious consequences are unusual, but nothing is perfect and accident in a high density populated area could have disastrous consequences. Transport of dangerous chemical agents is also a potential target for antagonistic attacks like terrorism or crime.
The Threat Today
Chemical Weapon Conventions means that both the US and Russia are reducing and will completely remove their possession of lethal chemical weapons. The US has stopped the production of chemical weapons 1990 and both the US and Russia is reducing their stockpiles but the progress is slow. The last figures I’ve seen indicates that the US has about 22800 tons of chemical agents and Russia about 40000 tons of chemical agents. The US Stockpile mostly contains VX, Mustard gas and Sarin, The Russian stockpile around 80% nerve agents.
Other countries that are believed to have chemical weapons or the capacity to manufacture them are: Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, China, India, Burma, North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Algeria and Libya.
The threat may increase because of the increased knowledge in the world and access to recipes for different chemical weapons, especially trough the internet. This can mean that non state actors may create this kind of weapons easier than before. There are still big problems to spread these kinds of weapons in large scale, something that the attacks in Tokyo showed.
How to Protect Yourself
If you are in a area that is directly the first indications you will get is most likely symptoms from different person around, maybe even from yourself. This first signs YOU have to take seriously and get into safety. If a large scale attack with chemical weapons would take place in an area where you are its important that you try to get away from the affected area or get inside a building for some protection. Put on cloths to protect exposed skin and cover your mouth with and some cloth to reduce the exposure. The direction of the wind is one of the absolutely most important factors; don’t try to escape in the same direction as the wind. There is sophisticated equipment for detection; many potential targets in the US have automatic detection equipment that will give an early warning quickly in case of an attack. If you suspect that an attack is under way, turn on your radio and listen to messages from government agencies.
If you are at home or another building when an attack with chemical weapons, an accident at a chemical industry or transport would take place; close all doors and windows. Then close all ventilation and use tape, towels or whatever you to stop make doors and windows more secure. Preparing for this and practicing for this in my opinion the most important step you can take as a private citizen. Also learn where the nearest shelters with a protection for the public can be found. A gasmask may be a good addition, but in a worst case scenario where a military nerve agent would be used it doesn’t offer enough protection. If you do chose to buy a gasmask the most important part is that it’s airtight and fits your face, the best way to try this is to take part in an exercise where mace is being used. To protect the rest of your body you can improvise protection by using plastic or rubber clothing and use tape to seal the areas where the clothing meet. Remember that you have to safely dispose of the clothing you been wearing and wash your body very careful if you been exposed to chemical agents.
Attacks with chemical weapons are in my opinion a low probability scenario that could have really high consequences. But there are some examples of chemical weapons being used by non state actors.
I would like to thank the member Isopsycho from Survialist boards for some additional advice about how you can protect yourself from chemical agents. I also would like to recommend the book "Weapons of Mass Destruction" by Mary Byrd Davis & Arthur H. Purcell as good reference book on the subject.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
2012
In the survivalist movement there is allot of focus on scenarios that would mean The End Of The World As We Know It, this is often referred to as TEOTWAWKI. Doomsday scenarios has long been a focus in the media. Many popular movie like Terminator, The Matrix, I am Legend, Dawn of the Dead, Independence Day, Armageddon, Deep Impact, Red Dawn, The Happening, Escape from New York, Waterworld, The Day After Tomorrow and the last one in a long series: 2012 have been about this kind of events. Popular TV shows like Jericho, Jeremiah and V also describes the world from an apocalyptic scenario. In books this is also a popular theme, William R. Forstchens book “One Second After” about an EMP attack against the United States and James Wesley, Rawles book “Patriots: A novel of survival in the coming collapse” has become popular books. Even the popular author Neil Strauss most famous for his book “The Game” has in he’s latest book “Emergency: This book can save your life” written about his experience becoming a survivalist. A movie have also been made based on Cormac McCarthys book "The Road".
Will the world as we know it come to an end 2012?
It’s impossible to make an analysis covering all possible scenarios that could happen and make a risk assessment from there. I will try to focus on different kind of scenarios and threats and make analysis from area to area. The first areas that I will cover will be the most devastating weapons that mankind has its arsenal: Weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is often divided into chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, the first analysis will be about chemical weapons, when they been used in history and how you can protect yourself in a worst case scenario.
I am personally not of the belief that the world as we know it will come to a sudden end 2012, nor that it will anytime soon. In this blog I will try to cover as many areas of potential risk as possible. It’s my belief that risk comes from specific threats that can be traced back to different factors, not from a specific day in history. The year 1999 many feared what would happen when the new day came and it was January first 2000. The day came and the world moved on as usual. You can never know anything for sure, but it’s my belief that this will be the case in 2012 as well.
Will the world as we know it come to an end 2012?
It’s impossible to make an analysis covering all possible scenarios that could happen and make a risk assessment from there. I will try to focus on different kind of scenarios and threats and make analysis from area to area. The first areas that I will cover will be the most devastating weapons that mankind has its arsenal: Weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is often divided into chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, the first analysis will be about chemical weapons, when they been used in history and how you can protect yourself in a worst case scenario.
I am personally not of the belief that the world as we know it will come to a sudden end 2012, nor that it will anytime soon. In this blog I will try to cover as many areas of potential risk as possible. It’s my belief that risk comes from specific threats that can be traced back to different factors, not from a specific day in history. The year 1999 many feared what would happen when the new day came and it was January first 2000. The day came and the world moved on as usual. You can never know anything for sure, but it’s my belief that this will be the case in 2012 as well.
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