Chemical Warfare
Weapons of Mass Destruction are often divided in to three categories: NBC: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare. As a first step in covering the different kinds of Weapons of Mass Destruction I’m going to write about chemical warfare. Chemical weapons have different kinds of effects, but normally they kill, injure or incapacitates. Nerve agents are the most lethal of the chemical weapons. They are extremely poisonous, have no color and only a weak scent. If they are inhaled they may kill in a matter of minutes, many of the nerve agents may penetrated the skin, and in this case it may be up to half an hour before symptoms appear. To be protected against nerve agents a full body suit is required and a gasmask. To protect against nerve agents there is an also prophylactic tablet that can be taken before exposure and auto injectors that may be taken after exposure.
Examples of Events and Large Scale Accidents
1914-1918 During The First World War chemical weapons was used extensively by both sides and over a million were injured and over one hundred thousand killed by this type of weapon.
1939-1945 During the Second World War Poisonous gas was used in the Nazi concentration camps on a massive scale as one way of many to kill millions. Both the US and Germany has large stockpiles of chemical weapons, but they never came in to use during the Second World War.
1955-1975 During the Vietnam War chemical agents were used by the American forces to clear areas from vegetation, the most famous of these chemicals agents was Agent Orange.
1980-1988 The war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980:s was one of the most violent conflicts of the Cold War, both sides used chemical weapons in the war. The war was the first conflict when nerve gas was used as weapons of war.
1984 the worst chemical accident in history to place in the city Bhopal in India. The accident happened at night and around 2500 died and around 50000 was injured. The chemical agents were a leakage from a factory producing pesticides. Large scale chemical accidents are unusual but small scale accident is more common.
Saddam Hussein’s regime used nerve gas and mustard gas against the Kurdish city Halabja 1988 after the Iran-Iraq war, an attack that killed thousands of civilians and many more was injured. When the first Gulf War started 1991 there was a big fear that Iraq would use chemical weapons against the coalition forces. This was a much pressured situation for the Iraqi regime but they still chose not to employ chemical weapons.
1995 The Attack against the Tokyo Subway by the sect Aum Shinrikyo is the most devastating attack with a nerve gas by a non state actor in history. The delivery system was very primitive but the attack still killed twelve persons and injured a couple of thousands. The Cult had also attacked another Japanese city in 1994 where seven was killed and a couple of hundred was injured.
2002 Russian forces employed a chemical agent to incapacitate both the Chechnya rebels and the hostages in a Moscow theater. Over 100 hostages died as a result.
2003 The fear that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was an important factor when the decision was made to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein’s regime 2003.
Teargas or mace is often used a riot control agent in various countries. Teargas is normally not lethal and incapacities the people how get affected by the gas. The difference between the level of exposure that incapacitates people and the level that is lethal is very big. For a dose to be lethal exposure must normally take place within a closed are without circulation of the air. This is the chemical weapon that you are most likely to get exposed to in my opinion. Normally the symptoms from the gases are gone within half an hour.
Transports of Chemical Agents
A potential risk comes from chemical agents that are being transported. The containers are constructed to withstand accidents so serious consequences are unusual, but nothing is perfect and accident in a high density populated area could have disastrous consequences. Transport of dangerous chemical agents is also a potential target for antagonistic attacks like terrorism or crime.
The Threat Today
Chemical Weapon Conventions means that both the US and Russia are reducing and will completely remove their possession of lethal chemical weapons. The US has stopped the production of chemical weapons 1990 and both the US and Russia is reducing their stockpiles but the progress is slow. The last figures I’ve seen indicates that the US has about 22800 tons of chemical agents and Russia about 40000 tons of chemical agents. The US Stockpile mostly contains VX, Mustard gas and Sarin, The Russian stockpile around 80% nerve agents.
Other countries that are believed to have chemical weapons or the capacity to manufacture them are: Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, China, India, Burma, North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Algeria and Libya.
The threat may increase because of the increased knowledge in the world and access to recipes for different chemical weapons, especially trough the internet. This can mean that non state actors may create this kind of weapons easier than before. There are still big problems to spread these kinds of weapons in large scale, something that the attacks in Tokyo showed.
How to Protect Yourself
If you are in a area that is directly the first indications you will get is most likely symptoms from different person around, maybe even from yourself. This first signs YOU have to take seriously and get into safety. If a large scale attack with chemical weapons would take place in an area where you are its important that you try to get away from the affected area or get inside a building for some protection. Put on cloths to protect exposed skin and cover your mouth with and some cloth to reduce the exposure. The direction of the wind is one of the absolutely most important factors; don’t try to escape in the same direction as the wind. There is sophisticated equipment for detection; many potential targets in the US have automatic detection equipment that will give an early warning quickly in case of an attack. If you suspect that an attack is under way, turn on your radio and listen to messages from government agencies.
If you are at home or another building when an attack with chemical weapons, an accident at a chemical industry or transport would take place; close all doors and windows. Then close all ventilation and use tape, towels or whatever you to stop make doors and windows more secure. Preparing for this and practicing for this in my opinion the most important step you can take as a private citizen. Also learn where the nearest shelters with a protection for the public can be found. A gasmask may be a good addition, but in a worst case scenario where a military nerve agent would be used it doesn’t offer enough protection. If you do chose to buy a gasmask the most important part is that it’s airtight and fits your face, the best way to try this is to take part in an exercise where mace is being used. To protect the rest of your body you can improvise protection by using plastic or rubber clothing and use tape to seal the areas where the clothing meet. Remember that you have to safely dispose of the clothing you been wearing and wash your body very careful if you been exposed to chemical agents.
Attacks with chemical weapons are in my opinion a low probability scenario that could have really high consequences. But there are some examples of chemical weapons being used by non state actors.
I would like to thank the member Isopsycho from Survialist boards for some additional advice about how you can protect yourself from chemical agents. I also would like to recommend the book "Weapons of Mass Destruction" by Mary Byrd Davis & Arthur H. Purcell as good reference book on the subject.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
2012
In the survivalist movement there is allot of focus on scenarios that would mean The End Of The World As We Know It, this is often referred to as TEOTWAWKI. Doomsday scenarios has long been a focus in the media. Many popular movie like Terminator, The Matrix, I am Legend, Dawn of the Dead, Independence Day, Armageddon, Deep Impact, Red Dawn, The Happening, Escape from New York, Waterworld, The Day After Tomorrow and the last one in a long series: 2012 have been about this kind of events. Popular TV shows like Jericho, Jeremiah and V also describes the world from an apocalyptic scenario. In books this is also a popular theme, William R. Forstchens book “One Second After” about an EMP attack against the United States and James Wesley, Rawles book “Patriots: A novel of survival in the coming collapse” has become popular books. Even the popular author Neil Strauss most famous for his book “The Game” has in he’s latest book “Emergency: This book can save your life” written about his experience becoming a survivalist. A movie have also been made based on Cormac McCarthys book "The Road".
Will the world as we know it come to an end 2012?
It’s impossible to make an analysis covering all possible scenarios that could happen and make a risk assessment from there. I will try to focus on different kind of scenarios and threats and make analysis from area to area. The first areas that I will cover will be the most devastating weapons that mankind has its arsenal: Weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is often divided into chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, the first analysis will be about chemical weapons, when they been used in history and how you can protect yourself in a worst case scenario.
I am personally not of the belief that the world as we know it will come to a sudden end 2012, nor that it will anytime soon. In this blog I will try to cover as many areas of potential risk as possible. It’s my belief that risk comes from specific threats that can be traced back to different factors, not from a specific day in history. The year 1999 many feared what would happen when the new day came and it was January first 2000. The day came and the world moved on as usual. You can never know anything for sure, but it’s my belief that this will be the case in 2012 as well.
Will the world as we know it come to an end 2012?
It’s impossible to make an analysis covering all possible scenarios that could happen and make a risk assessment from there. I will try to focus on different kind of scenarios and threats and make analysis from area to area. The first areas that I will cover will be the most devastating weapons that mankind has its arsenal: Weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is often divided into chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, the first analysis will be about chemical weapons, when they been used in history and how you can protect yourself in a worst case scenario.
I am personally not of the belief that the world as we know it will come to a sudden end 2012, nor that it will anytime soon. In this blog I will try to cover as many areas of potential risk as possible. It’s my belief that risk comes from specific threats that can be traced back to different factors, not from a specific day in history. The year 1999 many feared what would happen when the new day came and it was January first 2000. The day came and the world moved on as usual. You can never know anything for sure, but it’s my belief that this will be the case in 2012 as well.
Friday, November 13, 2009
How you can reduce your own vulnerability
In the part about risk assessment you can get some basic ideas of how to identify and categorize different form of possible crisis and survival situations. This part will be a general guide to what can help you to reduce your own vulnerability to this kind of events. Most survival handbooks focus on water, food, shelter and fire. It’s my belief that you’re true capacity to survive and cope with a crisis depends on more factors than that.
Health
Health is in my opinion the most important aspect of your life. Your diet, your exercise, your physical and psychological wellbeing is the most fundamental for your survival. This is a part of your life that you have to keep working on all the time. Think about what you eat and try to eat as healthy as you possibly can. Cut down on sugar, fast food and sweeteners. You don’t want overweight or diabetes in your normal life or in a survival situation. In a long term survival situation diabetes can be a lethal condition if the access to insulin disappears. Your teeth are also a critical part: Take good care of them, use floss and fluoride. This may seem as boring aspects of crisis preparedness or survival but in a real survival situation a damaged tooth can become a lethal infection: If you have any problems with your teeth go to a dentist and get them fixed. Try to exercise at least three times each week.
Another important part of your health is stress management. If your level of stress is too high the effect might be a stroke or heart attack. Modern life is stressful so you must find ways to cope with it. Get a hobby to help you relax and think about something else for a while. Find something that you like to do, no matter if it’s hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, climbing, kayaking, skiing, dancing, sports or meditation. The important part is that it works for you. And don’t try to skip this part of your health; you won’t save time by burning yourself out.
Knowledge, Experience and Skills
Knowledge and skills is something that you will always carry with you, you can have the best equipment that money can buy, but if you don’t know how to use it – it’s useless. One of the skills that I think is most important is some basic medical skills like first aid and CPR. Take a course and bring your friends or family, it’s just as important that they can help you. This kind of skills need constant refreshment: Try to take a course once every five years. What other skills that’s important depends on your particular situation but the ability to make fire, collect and purify water and make shelter is a good start. Don’t forget to include skills that can help you in your everyday life or help you get a job. Make a list of what skills that would be useful and what skills that you always wanted to learn and start working from there.
Equipment and Gear
Some basic equipment in combination with skills can make a huge difference in a crisis or survival situation if you know how to use and have the ability to improvise. I have some basic suggestions in the blog post Get The Ability To Cope With A Crisis and the blog post Equipment List For Your Home - Checklist.
Your Social Network
Your social network is one of the absolutely most important parts of your personal security. You can have perfect health, knowledge and skills and all equipment you could ever need – but if you don’t have someone that can help you in time of need your vulnerability in a crisis situation or survival situation is much higher. Your friends, partner and family is the most natural part, but people from works and other contacts is also very important.
Your Geographical Setting
Your geographical setting is also a very important part, some parts of the world has a higher degree of natural disasters than others. If you live in a area where natural disasters is a common problem you can reduce the consequences of a natural disaster by choosing a place where you live that offers the maximum amount of protection possible. For example: If you live in a area where flooding can be a problem, try to find a place that is located high enough so it won’t get affected. If storms are a common problem find a place where the surrounding area gives some protection against powerful wind. The very house where you live is also a important part, a stone structure is much less likely to be damaged than a fragile mobile home. The coast line offers a great view, but remember that the coast regions often gets hit hardest from hurricanes and other extreme weather.
Your Economical Situation
Your economical situation is also a critical aspect. Very few people have the economical resources or income that gives them the possibility to buy everything they want and still have money over. The first thing I recommend you to do is to start saving money. I suggest that you try to put keep about 20% of your income every month: 5% into a emergency situation fund that you don’t use unless there really is an emergency, 10% as investment fund that you can use if a good opportunity to buy something really useful for a good price would come along and 5% for vacations and entertainment. The last part is an important part of your health: You need the opportunity to relax and recharge your batteries, don’t just spend your money on equipment and physical objects. I suggest that you might invest some of the money in your emergency fund into gold or silver.
Start to keep a record off what you are buying and how you are spending your money, do that for three months and you will start discovering things about yourself that may not have been aware of. This also gives you an idea about where you can save money and how can plan your economy better.
Unemployment is a real risk for most of the population and if you find yourself in this position you want to have the best possibilities that you can to get a new, or even a better job. First off all: Take your job seriously and work hard. Don’t be a slacker, you want everybody you ever worked with to get such a good impression of you that they would recommend you for a job. Try to learn new aspects of your job, ask for some extra responsibility and take courses that give you even more knowledge about what you do. If you can I recommend that you start taking courses after work or get an extra job. Even if there is people at work you don’t like, treat them right and try to get know the people you work with: They are an excellent resource for future possibilities. Never stop learning.
Understanding The Risks In Your Everyday Life
The most common risk that you face is dangers in your everyday life. Traffic accidents are one of the worst killers, when you get out into traffic use your seatbelt and focus on what you are doing. It’s very easy to get distracted or wondering of with your mind. Don’t talk on the phone or send text messages and keep the volume on your stereo down so that you can hear what’s going on around you. The number of dead from all terrorist attacks is nothing compared to the deaths in traffic. If you ride a bike: Use a helmet and make sure that you can be seen at night.
Fire is another big danger: Make sure that your home is as safe as it possibly can be, get a fire alarm, make sure that you have a exit strategy and train this strategy with your family. It’s just like in sports or the military: practice makes perfect. If you get the opportunity I strongly that you take a course and learn how to use a fire extinguisher and how to extinguish a burning person with a blanket. And when you have done this: Get a fire extinguisher for your home. If you have many family members take the course together, you are a team.
It’s also important that you start thinking about risks that you accept as a part of normal life. Alcohol, tobacco and other drugs is directly bad for your health and in combination with a activities like driving or water sports they may be lethal. Alcohol and different drugs are a part of everyday life for most people, but it’s important that you keep your using of them on a reasonable level and don’t get into dangerous activities when you’re under the influence. Other simple thing like spending too much time in the sun can cause skin cancer: Use sun screen and cover up. For more information see the article about Risk Assessments.
Health
Health is in my opinion the most important aspect of your life. Your diet, your exercise, your physical and psychological wellbeing is the most fundamental for your survival. This is a part of your life that you have to keep working on all the time. Think about what you eat and try to eat as healthy as you possibly can. Cut down on sugar, fast food and sweeteners. You don’t want overweight or diabetes in your normal life or in a survival situation. In a long term survival situation diabetes can be a lethal condition if the access to insulin disappears. Your teeth are also a critical part: Take good care of them, use floss and fluoride. This may seem as boring aspects of crisis preparedness or survival but in a real survival situation a damaged tooth can become a lethal infection: If you have any problems with your teeth go to a dentist and get them fixed. Try to exercise at least three times each week.
Another important part of your health is stress management. If your level of stress is too high the effect might be a stroke or heart attack. Modern life is stressful so you must find ways to cope with it. Get a hobby to help you relax and think about something else for a while. Find something that you like to do, no matter if it’s hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, climbing, kayaking, skiing, dancing, sports or meditation. The important part is that it works for you. And don’t try to skip this part of your health; you won’t save time by burning yourself out.
Knowledge, Experience and Skills
Knowledge and skills is something that you will always carry with you, you can have the best equipment that money can buy, but if you don’t know how to use it – it’s useless. One of the skills that I think is most important is some basic medical skills like first aid and CPR. Take a course and bring your friends or family, it’s just as important that they can help you. This kind of skills need constant refreshment: Try to take a course once every five years. What other skills that’s important depends on your particular situation but the ability to make fire, collect and purify water and make shelter is a good start. Don’t forget to include skills that can help you in your everyday life or help you get a job. Make a list of what skills that would be useful and what skills that you always wanted to learn and start working from there.
Equipment and Gear
Some basic equipment in combination with skills can make a huge difference in a crisis or survival situation if you know how to use and have the ability to improvise. I have some basic suggestions in the blog post Get The Ability To Cope With A Crisis and the blog post Equipment List For Your Home - Checklist.
Your Social Network
Your social network is one of the absolutely most important parts of your personal security. You can have perfect health, knowledge and skills and all equipment you could ever need – but if you don’t have someone that can help you in time of need your vulnerability in a crisis situation or survival situation is much higher. Your friends, partner and family is the most natural part, but people from works and other contacts is also very important.
Your Geographical Setting
Your geographical setting is also a very important part, some parts of the world has a higher degree of natural disasters than others. If you live in a area where natural disasters is a common problem you can reduce the consequences of a natural disaster by choosing a place where you live that offers the maximum amount of protection possible. For example: If you live in a area where flooding can be a problem, try to find a place that is located high enough so it won’t get affected. If storms are a common problem find a place where the surrounding area gives some protection against powerful wind. The very house where you live is also a important part, a stone structure is much less likely to be damaged than a fragile mobile home. The coast line offers a great view, but remember that the coast regions often gets hit hardest from hurricanes and other extreme weather.
Your Economical Situation
Your economical situation is also a critical aspect. Very few people have the economical resources or income that gives them the possibility to buy everything they want and still have money over. The first thing I recommend you to do is to start saving money. I suggest that you try to put keep about 20% of your income every month: 5% into a emergency situation fund that you don’t use unless there really is an emergency, 10% as investment fund that you can use if a good opportunity to buy something really useful for a good price would come along and 5% for vacations and entertainment. The last part is an important part of your health: You need the opportunity to relax and recharge your batteries, don’t just spend your money on equipment and physical objects. I suggest that you might invest some of the money in your emergency fund into gold or silver.
Start to keep a record off what you are buying and how you are spending your money, do that for three months and you will start discovering things about yourself that may not have been aware of. This also gives you an idea about where you can save money and how can plan your economy better.
Unemployment is a real risk for most of the population and if you find yourself in this position you want to have the best possibilities that you can to get a new, or even a better job. First off all: Take your job seriously and work hard. Don’t be a slacker, you want everybody you ever worked with to get such a good impression of you that they would recommend you for a job. Try to learn new aspects of your job, ask for some extra responsibility and take courses that give you even more knowledge about what you do. If you can I recommend that you start taking courses after work or get an extra job. Even if there is people at work you don’t like, treat them right and try to get know the people you work with: They are an excellent resource for future possibilities. Never stop learning.
Understanding The Risks In Your Everyday Life
The most common risk that you face is dangers in your everyday life. Traffic accidents are one of the worst killers, when you get out into traffic use your seatbelt and focus on what you are doing. It’s very easy to get distracted or wondering of with your mind. Don’t talk on the phone or send text messages and keep the volume on your stereo down so that you can hear what’s going on around you. The number of dead from all terrorist attacks is nothing compared to the deaths in traffic. If you ride a bike: Use a helmet and make sure that you can be seen at night.
Fire is another big danger: Make sure that your home is as safe as it possibly can be, get a fire alarm, make sure that you have a exit strategy and train this strategy with your family. It’s just like in sports or the military: practice makes perfect. If you get the opportunity I strongly that you take a course and learn how to use a fire extinguisher and how to extinguish a burning person with a blanket. And when you have done this: Get a fire extinguisher for your home. If you have many family members take the course together, you are a team.
It’s also important that you start thinking about risks that you accept as a part of normal life. Alcohol, tobacco and other drugs is directly bad for your health and in combination with a activities like driving or water sports they may be lethal. Alcohol and different drugs are a part of everyday life for most people, but it’s important that you keep your using of them on a reasonable level and don’t get into dangerous activities when you’re under the influence. Other simple thing like spending too much time in the sun can cause skin cancer: Use sun screen and cover up. For more information see the article about Risk Assessments.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Scandinavian Survival Equipment
I would to take the opportunity to recommend some survival equipment from the part of the world where I come from: Scandinavia.
First off all I would like to recommend the knives from Mora. They have some of the best knives you find for the money. Especially the model Mora 2000 is a really great knife, I used it for hunting, hiking and fishing and it never let me down. The new knife from Mora named Bushcraft basically has the same blade as the Mora 2000 with a new more ergonomic handle.
Secondly I would like to recommend the knives from Fällkniven, especially the models Fällkniven F1 and Fällkniven S1. It’s one of the best survival knives you can find, but they are rather expensive. Go with the Kydex sheaths instead of the leather ones. The leather sheaths are too heavy and unpractical.
The Bivanorak from Hilleberg is designed as a survival shelter for Swedish Air Force Pilots. It works as a poncho, emergency shelter, sleeping bag cover and bivy bag. The company Helsport also makes a similar product with the named Fjellduk.
The Murriikka is a slightly concave cast iron wok plate with tripod. It’s excellent for cooking food over an open fire. I use it every spring out in the wild and it’s a great way of cooking food for an entire family.
The axes and hatchets from Gränsfors Bruk have a very high quality and have hand forged blades. I especially like the Hunters axe and Wildlife Hatchet.
Klättermusen makes some of the best survival and emergency clothing that’s out there. The jackets and trousers that they make may not be the most beautiful and they are very expensive. But they offer excellent quality and function.
First off all I would like to recommend the knives from Mora. They have some of the best knives you find for the money. Especially the model Mora 2000 is a really great knife, I used it for hunting, hiking and fishing and it never let me down. The new knife from Mora named Bushcraft basically has the same blade as the Mora 2000 with a new more ergonomic handle.
Secondly I would like to recommend the knives from Fällkniven, especially the models Fällkniven F1 and Fällkniven S1. It’s one of the best survival knives you can find, but they are rather expensive. Go with the Kydex sheaths instead of the leather ones. The leather sheaths are too heavy and unpractical.
The Bivanorak from Hilleberg is designed as a survival shelter for Swedish Air Force Pilots. It works as a poncho, emergency shelter, sleeping bag cover and bivy bag. The company Helsport also makes a similar product with the named Fjellduk.
The Murriikka is a slightly concave cast iron wok plate with tripod. It’s excellent for cooking food over an open fire. I use it every spring out in the wild and it’s a great way of cooking food for an entire family.
The axes and hatchets from Gränsfors Bruk have a very high quality and have hand forged blades. I especially like the Hunters axe and Wildlife Hatchet.
Klättermusen makes some of the best survival and emergency clothing that’s out there. The jackets and trousers that they make may not be the most beautiful and they are very expensive. But they offer excellent quality and function.
The Norwegian company Aclima makes high quality and reasonably priced base layers. The WoolNet series offers excellent insulation and great transportation of moisture even if the looks of the base layers may not be ideal for showing yourself in public. In short great performance and reasonable price but not the most esthetic choice.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Risk Assessments
In order to prepare for danger one must get a basic idea about what kind of threats that we are facing. If one can get an idea about potential risks we can get the skills, knowledge, training, equipment and plans that can help us to overcome, prevent and reduce the effects from these risks. Governments, corporations, military organizations and the Intelligence community spends an enormous amount of money every year in order to collect Intelligence, understand threats and prevent them from manifesting into reality or catastrophes.
Risks are also a matter of perception. Institutions and the media forms the acceptance of what risks that is considered acceptable and what risks that is not. Different people perceive risks differently. Ideologies also play a critical role, one example is Man-Made Global Warming and Peak Oil, these two issues are seen as serious risks by some and ignored by others. The process of Globalization has resulted in a situation when a crisis can spread fast though out the world, like the current financial crisis. Many other threats are not bound to the boundaries of states like terrorism, organized crime, trafficking, illegal drug trade and pandemics.
So what is a Risk? The probability is one factor, the other factor is the consequences that a risk may have. Fatalities, physical harm or loss of property are common consequences that a threat can have.
Where do you get Started?
Try to find a Risk Assessment made by a government agency from a local or regional level. This is important 1: For inspiration, 2: So that you know what kinds of scenarios your local agencies are prepared for. Risk Assessments are not always made public because they can give antagonistic people an idea of where a strike would hurt the most. Sometimes there exists both a public and confidential version, try with different kind of agencies and just ask if they have a public version.
Step 1: Identify Risks - What can happen?
Examples of possible events
• War
• Civil Wars (The most common form of human conflict)
• Genocide or Ethnic cleansing (Nazi Germany, Rwanda and the Balkans are some examples)
Weapons of Mass Destruction (CBRN)
• Attacks with Chemical weapons
• Attacks with Biological weapons
• Attacks with Nuclear weapons or an attack with conventional explosives in combination with radioactive materials attached, known as a “dirty bomb”.
• Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) from a high altitude nuclear explosion
Terrorism
• Suicide bombings
• Bomb Attacks
• Improvised Explosive Devises (IED:s)
• Arson (the most common form of terrorist attack)
Crime
• Sabotage
• Crime
• Assault
• Murder
• Kidnapping (common danger in high risk countries like Colombia or Iraq)
• Theft or Robbery
• Riots
• Famine and Starvation
Natural Disasters
• Earthquakes
• Tsunami
• Volcanic eruptions
• Severe weather
• Thunderstorms
• Tornados
• Extreme Heat
• Blizzards
• Hurricanes
• Floods
• Land Slides
• Fire
• Impact with Space Objects
The last major impact with a space object was 1908 in Tunguska, Siberia. The frequency of global catastrophic impacts is very low, once or twice every one million years.
• Solar storms
Failing Technical Systems
• Oil Embargo or Sabotage against oil infrastructure or large scale accidents in oil infrastructure.
• Peak Oil
• The Limits to Growth
• Global Warming
• Hydro Plant collapse from accidents or sabotage
• Nuclear Power Plant Collapse or Meltdown with radioactive fallout
• Radioloactivel fallout from accidents at storage facilities or transport of radiological material.
• Lose of electrical power (often results in the collapse of communication systems and water system)
• Fallout from chemical industries or chemical transports
• Internet and/or telephone communications systems collapse
• Problem with communications systems (roads, railways, airports)
Economical Problems
• Financial Recession
• Economic Depression or Economic Collapse
• Unemployment
Different kind of Disease
• Epidemics (local out brake of disease)
• Pandemics (global out brake of a disease)
Remember that a Epidemic or Pandemic classification doesn’t take in to consideration how severe the disease is, all seasonal flues are pandemic, even if they normally only affect the people that are sensitive to disease. The people how normally are extra sensitive to disease are:
* The very young and the old
* People with untreated HIV or AIDS
* People with cancer
* Women how are pregnant
• Disaster in a different area/region/country with your family, friends or loved ones involved.
Step 2: How Likely is this to happen?
1.) Very low
2.) Low
3.) Medium
4.) High
5.) Very High
Step 3: What are the possible Consequences from these events?
1.) Very Low
2.) Low
3.) Medium
4.) High
5.) Catastrophic
Step 4: Calculate the Risk Factor
After you have identified the Risks, there likeliness and the consequences make a Matrix with How likely they are in one axis and the Consequences in the other axis. The events in the upper right corner that is likely to happen and have high consequences, that’s where I suggest you start focusing your attention. Start to study the risks you identified and real events where they have taken place. What lessons can be learned from these events?
Step 5: Risk Management
What Resources are there to Manage these Risks?
Local / Regional / National
Try to get a picture of what resources there is to deal with different kind of crisis where you live. Resources like Military, National Guard, Police, Fire Departments, Paramedics, Hospitals, Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT), Non Government Organizations (NGO:s) like the Red Cross and Religious organizations are some examples.
Personal
I also suggest that you add another dimension to your Risk Assessment: How may the Risks affect your capacity for short and long term survival? May your house be destroyed or may the area where you live be contaminated with chemical or radioactive fallout so that you may not be able to return to your home? What kind of Knowledge, Training and Skills and Equipment do you have that can help you deal with these threats? How can you reduce the impact of an event or avoid it completely?
Adjusting to a Changing Situation
Risks are not something that is static. New kinds of threats manifest and new potential problems arise every year. This mean that you’re Risk Assessment must be continuously updated to incorporate new events and trends. How often this should be done depends on the situation but I would suggest that you don’t view a Risk Assessment as a work you perform one time, but more like a continuing process.
The SWOT Analysis
The SWOT Analysis is a common form of analysis designed to see different perspectives of a Past, Ongoing or Future Situation. The Analysis can be used in different settings like Intelligence Analysis, Risk Assessments, Project Management, Business Plans or simply too evaluate a course of action or a Plan.
SWOT means Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The Possibilities and Weaknesses part of the analysis resembles the Pro and Con Analysis. But the analysis also includes the potential unknown or external factors: Possibilities and Threats. If a SWOT analysis is used when there is two or more Parties involved the analysis is often split into two; one analysis that describes the side that make the analysis and the analysis that describes the perspective from the other parties point of view. The SWOT analysis just like a Risk Assessment is a tool that can make it easier to see different perspectives and analyze various situations.
Summary
The perception of risk is a factor that comes in play for all individuals and organizations. Identifying risks that we encounter often or that is often highlighted in our society is easy and these types of risks we are often well prepared for.
But sometimes threats manifests from situation when it’s on clear after the event has taken place that there were signs that indicated a threat. This type of intelligence failures are common, some examples are the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the terrorists attacks on 9/11 2001. Another example is the inability for the Intelligence community to foresee the end of the Cold War and the Collapse of the Soviet Union. Seeing threats that doesn’t fit into the perception that we have of the world is very hard, but these are often the threats that can have the greatest consequences.
Also see
Analyzing Risks
Gathering Information during Crisis and Survival Situations: HumInt and Interviews
The Westfalian Risk Management Model
Risks are also a matter of perception. Institutions and the media forms the acceptance of what risks that is considered acceptable and what risks that is not. Different people perceive risks differently. Ideologies also play a critical role, one example is Man-Made Global Warming and Peak Oil, these two issues are seen as serious risks by some and ignored by others. The process of Globalization has resulted in a situation when a crisis can spread fast though out the world, like the current financial crisis. Many other threats are not bound to the boundaries of states like terrorism, organized crime, trafficking, illegal drug trade and pandemics.
So what is a Risk? The probability is one factor, the other factor is the consequences that a risk may have. Fatalities, physical harm or loss of property are common consequences that a threat can have.
Try to find a Risk Assessment made by a government agency from a local or regional level. This is important 1: For inspiration, 2: So that you know what kinds of scenarios your local agencies are prepared for. Risk Assessments are not always made public because they can give antagonistic people an idea of where a strike would hurt the most. Sometimes there exists both a public and confidential version, try with different kind of agencies and just ask if they have a public version.
Step 1: Identify Risks - What can happen?
Examples of possible events
• War
• Civil Wars (The most common form of human conflict)
• Genocide or Ethnic cleansing (Nazi Germany, Rwanda and the Balkans are some examples)
Weapons of Mass Destruction (CBRN)
• Attacks with Chemical weapons
• Attacks with Biological weapons
• Attacks with Nuclear weapons or an attack with conventional explosives in combination with radioactive materials attached, known as a “dirty bomb”.
• Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) from a high altitude nuclear explosion
Terrorism
• Suicide bombings
• Bomb Attacks
• Improvised Explosive Devises (IED:s)
• Arson (the most common form of terrorist attack)
Crime
• Sabotage
• Crime
• Assault
• Murder
• Kidnapping (common danger in high risk countries like Colombia or Iraq)
• Theft or Robbery
• Riots
• Famine and Starvation
Natural Disasters
• Earthquakes
• Tsunami
• Volcanic eruptions
• Severe weather
• Thunderstorms
• Tornados
• Extreme Heat
• Blizzards
• Hurricanes
• Floods
• Land Slides
• Fire
• Impact with Space Objects
The last major impact with a space object was 1908 in Tunguska, Siberia. The frequency of global catastrophic impacts is very low, once or twice every one million years.
• Solar storms
Failing Technical Systems
• Oil Embargo or Sabotage against oil infrastructure or large scale accidents in oil infrastructure.
• Peak Oil
• The Limits to Growth
• Global Warming
• Hydro Plant collapse from accidents or sabotage
• Nuclear Power Plant Collapse or Meltdown with radioactive fallout
• Radioloactivel fallout from accidents at storage facilities or transport of radiological material.
• Lose of electrical power (often results in the collapse of communication systems and water system)
• Fallout from chemical industries or chemical transports
• Internet and/or telephone communications systems collapse
• Problem with communications systems (roads, railways, airports)
Economical Problems
• Financial Recession
• Economic Depression or Economic Collapse
• Unemployment
Different kind of Disease
• Epidemics (local out brake of disease)
• Pandemics (global out brake of a disease)
Remember that a Epidemic or Pandemic classification doesn’t take in to consideration how severe the disease is, all seasonal flues are pandemic, even if they normally only affect the people that are sensitive to disease. The people how normally are extra sensitive to disease are:
* The very young and the old
* People with untreated HIV or AIDS
* People with cancer
* Women how are pregnant
• Disaster in a different area/region/country with your family, friends or loved ones involved.
Step 2: How Likely is this to happen?
1.) Very low
2.) Low
3.) Medium
4.) High
5.) Very High
Step 3: What are the possible Consequences from these events?
1.) Very Low
2.) Low
3.) Medium
4.) High
5.) Catastrophic
Step 4: Calculate the Risk Factor
After you have identified the Risks, there likeliness and the consequences make a Matrix with How likely they are in one axis and the Consequences in the other axis. The events in the upper right corner that is likely to happen and have high consequences, that’s where I suggest you start focusing your attention. Start to study the risks you identified and real events where they have taken place. What lessons can be learned from these events?
Step 5: Risk Management
What Resources are there to Manage these Risks?
Local / Regional / National
Try to get a picture of what resources there is to deal with different kind of crisis where you live. Resources like Military, National Guard, Police, Fire Departments, Paramedics, Hospitals, Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT), Non Government Organizations (NGO:s) like the Red Cross and Religious organizations are some examples.
Personal
Adjusting to a Changing Situation
Risks are not something that is static. New kinds of threats manifest and new potential problems arise every year. This mean that you’re Risk Assessment must be continuously updated to incorporate new events and trends. How often this should be done depends on the situation but I would suggest that you don’t view a Risk Assessment as a work you perform one time, but more like a continuing process.
The SWOT Analysis
The SWOT Analysis is a common form of analysis designed to see different perspectives of a Past, Ongoing or Future Situation. The Analysis can be used in different settings like Intelligence Analysis, Risk Assessments, Project Management, Business Plans or simply too evaluate a course of action or a Plan.
SWOT means Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The Possibilities and Weaknesses part of the analysis resembles the Pro and Con Analysis. But the analysis also includes the potential unknown or external factors: Possibilities and Threats. If a SWOT analysis is used when there is two or more Parties involved the analysis is often split into two; one analysis that describes the side that make the analysis and the analysis that describes the perspective from the other parties point of view. The SWOT analysis just like a Risk Assessment is a tool that can make it easier to see different perspectives and analyze various situations.
Summary
The perception of risk is a factor that comes in play for all individuals and organizations. Identifying risks that we encounter often or that is often highlighted in our society is easy and these types of risks we are often well prepared for.
But sometimes threats manifests from situation when it’s on clear after the event has taken place that there were signs that indicated a threat. This type of intelligence failures are common, some examples are the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the terrorists attacks on 9/11 2001. Another example is the inability for the Intelligence community to foresee the end of the Cold War and the Collapse of the Soviet Union. Seeing threats that doesn’t fit into the perception that we have of the world is very hard, but these are often the threats that can have the greatest consequences.
Also see
Analyzing Risks
Gathering Information during Crisis and Survival Situations: HumInt and Interviews
The Westfalian Risk Management Model
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