Gathering Information during Crisis and Survival Situation – HumInt and Interviews

In order to understand the world around us and be able to identify potential threats Intelligence Agencies and other organizations around the world engage in the collection of information through various channels. Today the vast majority of information is gathered by intercepting electronic communications like internet traffic and radio traffic but other technical tools like satellites are also being utilized. New tools like Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV:s) have been introduced and allows operators to collect information without having to risk lives and some models like the Predator and the Reaper can also engage targets directly. UAV:s have initially been used by Military Forces and Intelligence Agencies but are starting to be employed by civilian actors as well.

Information gathered from Human Sources is often referred to as HumInt. The use of HumInt varies between different actors like police, military, intelligence agencies, diplomats and businesses. Sometimes human source are treated in a way that is not in the best interest of the source. This can be the case for police informers and other more extreme cases like the massive killings in the Soviet Union in the 1930:s. Torture and other cruel treatments have been used in totalitarian regimes as a way to collect information but similar methods have also been employed by more and less democratic states. In some cases sources can be used without them being aware that the information their collecting is being used by others.

During Disasters and Crisis Situations information can often be provided by groups like

·         Refugees and Displaced People – what areas do they have firsthand knowledge about and what areas do they only know indirectly?

·         Locals; Taxi Drivers, Bus Drivers, people working in the restaurant business etc

·         Tourists and Travelers

·         Journalists

Interviewing people and asking questions
Needless to say all interviews must be adapted to the situation and context where they take place; it’s one thing to interview a high level official during in the office of this person a calm day and another trying to get information from someone that has escaped after a natural disaster in the middle of the crisis. In this article I use the term “interview”, this can be a formal process but it can also be as simple as meeting someone and starting a conversation in order to get some information. 

There are many problems with collecting information from Human Sources; one of the major problems is what an individual actually knows and how well this actually represents the situation in an area. Refugees can have lived in a small local area in a country and traveled through areas that haven’t been that affected by natural disasters or conflict. If this is the case the information may not represent the entire picture so it is important to understand what time and place specific information comes from. Rumors and contradicting information often circulate so it is important to understand

·         What has the person experienced and seen firsthand

·         What has the person heard through rumors, family members, friends, the Media etc? The more people a piece of information has passed by the larger are the chance it has been altered or misunderstood. It’s also common that specific stories can be told by many people without them actually having experienced it.

This can be particularly problematic after a natural disaster or for refugees after a civil war since the people you encounter may be very random and from different areas and different social backgrounds. Another major problem with getting information from people is that questions shape the answers. This is probably the biggest challenge for interviews; asking the right questions. The more precise the question – the more precise the answer will be. In many cases it can just as important get information about an phenomena or development as it is to know that it not there. The presence of hostile troops in a certain area can be an example.
Sensitive issues are often extra problematic. One example is unpopular activities or phenomena’s. If asked is an unpopular phenomena should be allowed or not more people tend to say it shouldn’t than if the question is formulated so that it asks if an unpopular activity should be forbidden. Words and formulations affect the answers.

It can also be problematic to interview people in a group; in this case the individuals may affect each other and the answers given. If it’s possible it can be a good idea to try to interview people separately instead of doing so in groups.

Refugees can expect to get advantages if they provide the information someone wants to hear and thereby shape their answers accordingly if they can notice a theme in the questions that is being asked. This can also be a problem for interrogators; if the subject start realizing what the interrogators is looking for they can adjust their answers accordingly.

If asking a person a serious of question regarding what they have experienced or regarding the situation in a particular area it can be a good idea to also ask follow up question like if the informant have something to add that you haven’t asked about. This opens up the possibility to get vital information that falls outside your own expectations and increase the chance you will receive unexpected answers. 

In some cases information from people can be collected face-to-face but it’s also possible to collect information using cell phones, satellite phones, text messages, radio, e-mail, written letters and other tools like social networks. Many Intelligence Agencies and Crisis Management Organizations use their own platforms in order to share and distribute information; using specific groups in Social Networks can an alternative way for people without these resources to use web-based solution to share information but also provide the option of sharing pictures and video. For sensitive information encryption can be used to protect the information or it can be passed on using method like dead drops.

Making Contact

The first step of being able to interview someone for information is making contact; if you are interviewing someone I suggest that you introduce yourself and tell them how you are and why you would like to know more about what’s going on. Often it can be advantage being introduced by someone the person you would like to interview knows if this sis possible. If you’re just asking as private individual or if you’re working for an organization managing a crisis let this be known. Be friendly and polite.

The scene of the interview

One important aspect when conducting an interview is where the interview or talk takes place. It can be good if you can find some place where you can talk privately since the presence of many people can affect the answers. The nature of the situation affects how important this is; it is one thing to interview someone after a natural disaster and very different thing to interview someone in a collapsed state if the interviewed person fears for their life. Your own appearance is also important; how you are dressed and behave can affect if someone choose to give you information or not.

Problems with conducting interviews

There are many forms of problems than limit the amount of information that can be collected from human sources; one common barrier is language. This was a big problem for Intelligence Agencies after the terrorist attacks after 9/11 when many agencies had a limited or no capacity at all to handle this problem; a problem that was also enhanced by the need for secrecy and problems with recruiting new personnel. Language can also be problematic since it might require a great knowledge in order to detect the exact meaning of phrases; especially if there are differences in culture as well.

When asking questions one thing to look out for is that many people often tend to agree with statements rather than disagree. It can therefore be wise to avoid leading questions when you ask a person if they agree with a statement or not; by using more open questions this problem can be reduced.

Another common problem is how the language is used; it can be difficult to understand a question asked in your own language if question is asked in way that makes it hard to understand what the question really is about. This includes specific terms used in professions, slang and “big” words. Another problem can be is if you use vague words when the meaning of the word can be interpreted in many ways. One way to minimize this problem is to test questions on a friend or someone you know before you use them.

·        Try to keep the questions short and precise

·        Take your time and don’t stress through and interview; it’s important to you allow the person you’re talking to finish their answers. Also avoid asking about two separate issues in the same question; it makes it hard for the interviewed person to remember the question. One question at a time.

Finding and getting access to translators is a problematic process and even if you can get a translator it’s hard to know if the translation is correct and if some points are being lost in translation. Another problem is the potential loyalty of the translators; especially for military forces working in locations they are not familiar with.

After an Interview

When you have completed an interview it can be a good idea to ask for the person’s name and contact information if you would have to get in contact with them. It can be hard time to remember all the details of an interview afterwards so when you completed an interview write down the details; if you feel that you have to write down details under the interview or record the conversation I suggest that you ask for the persons permission to do so; especially when it comes to recordings. If you record an conversation with someone without their knowledge it is serious breach of trust; especially if the person you interview discover this during or after the interview.

·         When did the interview take place and where did it take place?

·         How did you interview? If you don’t know the name what other characteristics did you notice; age, hair, clothing etc.

·         What did you ask and what did you learn?

·         Personal impressions

Collapsed States and Civil Wars

In collapsed states and civil wars some of the refugees may be fleeing for political reasons, away from ethnic cleansing or from precaution; the information you collect could possibly put someone’s life at risk if it falls into the wrong hands so make sure that you do all you can in order to protect it and the source you collect it from.

In conflict zones and collapsed states information can sometimes be acquired from

·         Different types of Militias and Resistance Groups in the country

·         Non Government Organizations (NGO:s) working in the area

·         UN Officials or Peacekeeping Forces working in the area

·         Political Groups in exile

·         Maintenance and service personnel

Source Criticism         

One question that can be very hard to determine is if a Human Source is reliable? Some aspects that can be worth thinking about is

·         Loyalty – How is the source and what motivates the source to share information?

·         What type of Knowledge, Experience and Education does the source have?

·         Psychological traits

Some human sources can prove to have great worth; some of the most important sources of information are often people; especially when it comes to understanding the motivation, goals and plans of an adversary since this information can be impossible to gather by other means.  Human sources like individual located in the top of other intelligence agencies can be ultimate sources; a singular source of this nature can often be more valuable than all other sources combined. The secrecy surrounding intelligence agencies often makes the best sources the one that is hardest to get access to since information is shared on a need to know basis and low level personnel might not even know why they perform certain tasks.  

During Crisis Situations it’s important to also take the psychological reactions of individuals into consideration; during high stress situations affects perception in different way, something that can often be referred to as tunnel vision; and it can be a factor even for experienced personal within the police or military. The change of perception does not only have to be what a person focus on; it can also be other things like the sense of time meaning that an event may have passed slower or faster than an individual think it did and they might have missed details that would have been easy to detect for a neutral observer. 
                     

Disinformation

For Intelligence Agencies and Military Actors one potential problem is disinformation. Disinformation can be used to gain advantages in military operations both on a tactical but also on a strategic level. Disinformation can be false information that is being planted or true information that has been altered to create confusion or make an adversary draw incorrect assumptions. The importance of disinformation and deception is nothing new; this is one of the central parts of Sun Tzu:s “The Art of War”. In the Soviet Union this was known as Maskirovka; something that was being utilized on all levels in order to cloak intentions and capability. Disinformation can often be particularly effective if used to reinforce the existing perception of an adversary.


Disinformation can be used to

·         Make an adversary draw the wrong conclusions regarding the capacity of an individual, military force or business.

·         Mask the intentions of an actor

·         Delay actions of an adversary

·         Create confusion or fear

·         Make it harder for an adversary to regain the initiative 

These factors are often more important to actors that are inferior to their counterparts since it can allow the focus their efforts on specific areas. One problem with disinformation campaigns is that the information can get a life of its own; one example of this is when KGB spread the rumor that the HIV/AIDS virus was invented as biological weapon in US. Even if proof that the disease could not have been produced by the US and that it existed before the belief spread still exists among some parts of the public around the world.

Lie Spotting

Knowing if what somebody tells us is the truth or not is not easy. Most adults can only detect a lie around 50% of the time; almost the same rate as if you are simply flipping a coin. If you’re working in a Business it can be vital for detecting fraud and for Intelligence Agencies to detect disinformation.


During Crisis and Disaster Situations its can be especially hard trying to verify information so your own assessment becomes extra important. Detecting lies simply by looking for signs in the person you’re talking to is often known as Lie Spotting. Pamela Mayer is one of those how have worked to develop this field and her research and tips can be found her book “Lie Spotting: Proven Techniques to Detect Deception”. You also view Mayer on TED where she had a talk about her research.

Conclusion

In this article I have discussed some of the aspects related to gathering information from Human Sources. There are of course much more that could be discussed regarding this field but I hope that the reader has gotten some new ideas and perspectives that can be of help.


Other Articles
Risk Assessments
The Mediain Crisis and Survival Situations

The Westfalian Risk Management Model

So after an extended period of writing The Free Online Survival Guide I would like to present my suggested Framework for Preparedness: The Westfalian Risk Management Model. The aim of the Framework is to provide tools for individuals to access their own situation and take measures that make sense for their individual situation and setting.

The First Part of the model regards two aspects; (1) analyzing your own particular situation and understanding what type of Risks that you face in your particular setting. (2) The Second Part is to know yourself and what resources you have available both in the form of equipment and supplies but also to understand your financial situation. (3) The Third Part is to analyze your weak points and establish what Goals that you would like to reach and how to reach them.

Part One: Understanding Your Situation
The Risk Assessment
The First Part of the Framework is intended for help you to establish what type of Risks that you face. A tool that is often used by organizations that work with Crisis Management is Risk Assessments. A Risk Assessment is a structured tool to analyze the specific Risks you faced depending on the Probability and Consequences of specific Risks. Also keep in mind that most Risks can have a large variation; most Earthquakes can only be detected by electronic instruments but some can cause enormous devastation.

The Process
1.) Identify Potential Risks
2.) Try to establish the Consequence and Probability of the Identified Risks
3.) Based on the Probability and Consequences of the calculate the Risk Factor

When you try to establish the potential consequences of Risks I suggest that you try to look at what type of impact they can have in form of Causalities; disruption or destruction of Infrastructure, Economic Impact and Other Type of Effects. For more on the effects of disasters see the article Analyzing Risks. I suggested that you don’t stare yourself blind on the specific Risk Factor of certain potential Risks; A Risk Assessment is a tool to give you a basic understanding of the potential Risks; it’s an Assessment and the reality you later face may not correspond very well with this Assessment. It’s also important to keep in mind that even when it comes to “experts” they often make very different Assessments when it comes to the potential Consequences and Probability of different Risks.

Blind Spots and Ignored Risks
A Risk Assessment gives a clear picture of how you perceive your situation and the Risks you face. Another critical aspect that is rarely discussed by Organizations within the Crisis Management Community is what risks that is not included in the Assessment or what Risks that is Ignored. Two common examples of Risks that is highly debated are Peak Oil and Man-Made Global Warming; accepted as a threat by some and ignored by others. A factor for both these Risks are that they doesn’t correspond very well with the way most economical and political institutions perceive our world and the ideal of economical growth. Other types of Risks that can fall outside Risk Assessments are Wars between Democratic Nations or Long Term Shortages of Natural Resources. The Important Aspect is that you think about your own perception of the world and what Risks that you ignore or believe are very unlikely.

The Point is that a Risk Assessment can be a valuable tool; but the events that have the highest impact tend to be Risks that falls outside what we perceive as normal. You should try to understand your own assumptions and what they are based upon. If you have the opportunity I suggest that you read the Risk Assessment made by your local or regional Crisis Management agency and keep this in mind; what type of Scenarios do they prepare for and what Scenarios don’t they prepare for?

Black Swans
There are major events taking place that has an enormous impact that is not predicated by anyone. These large deviations from the “normal” development is often called “Black Swans” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb how introduced the concept. These events can have disastrous effects like the Terrorist Attacks on 9/11 2001 but also a positive effect like the invention of the Internet. This is a very long and complicated subject and I highly recommend Talebs book on the subject; but the point is: events that have enormous consequences takes place all the time, and no one is able to predict them. There are Risks that you can know that you ignore; but there are also potential Risks that you don’t know is there.

Your Setting
A Risk Assessment identifies some of the potential Risks that you face but it is also critical to link these Risks to your specific situation. If you live in a location where the temperatures during the winter can drop to very low levels it’s critical that you can cope with these temperatures if a natural or man-made disrupts the systems you depend upon for heat, If you live in a desert city that is dependent on water that is transported long distances it’s important that you can stay cool and that you need water storage that reflects this reality etc. Other factors like your housing situation and if you live a rural or urban setting are also important. Analyze your own situation and adapt accordingly; all settings produce their own specific opportunities and challenges; a SWOT analysis can be a good tool to get a better overview of your situation.

Part Two - Your Own Capacity
Know Yourself
Knowing the Potential Risks You Face is an important aspect of preparedness but understanding your own capacity to deal with this type of situations is equally important. As a Framework to analyze your own capacity I suggest that you focus on three personal aspects; (1) your own Knowledge, health and physical fitness, (2) a deeper look at your economical and financial situation and (3) what equipment and supplies that you have available.

Individual Aspects
Preparedness starts with You. You can have the most expensive equipment available in the world; if you lack the knowledge and skill required to use the equipment is of little use. Your knowledge, skills and experience, health and physical fitness allows you to use equipment, improvise and utilize its full potential.

Knowledge is everything you ever learned; from history, to languages, mathematics, how different types of natural disasters work; symptoms of various diseases, how one navigates, knowing your local terrain etc. What type of proffesions do you know? What type of formal and informal training do you have? Start with listing what type of knowledge that you posses. During this process you will also discover something else; what you don’t know.

Skills and Experience are similar to knowledge; but often knowing how something should be done does not mean that you actually can do it. This is the case of everything from first aid, to building a fire, orienteering, swimming, driving a car etc. What types of skills do you posses and what type of relevant experience do you have that can help you deal with a Crisis or Survival Situation?

You’re Health and Physical Fitness is important for several reasons; having the strength required to carry a person or lift a heavy object can mean the difference between life and death; so can having the required endurance to walk to safety. But this aspect is also important during your everyday life; exercise reduces stress; makes you more alert and reduce the chance of contracting diseases like diabetes or having a heart attack. This area also includes other aspects like having the right immunization and a good dental health. I suggest that you start with visiting a doctor and dentist for a check-up to get a better understanding of your current situation. Health and Physical Fitness is also a long term investment that is very important since people today live longer and longer lives and thereby also has to be able to make a livelihood and work a longer period of time.

Some other question that you can ask yourself
• What is your Body Mass Index based on your Height and Weight?
• How often do you exercise?
• What is the longest distance you have ever walked?
• How long could you Swim if you had to?
• How is your Dental health?
• Do you feel Healthy?
• Do you feel Happy and what type of activities make you the most Happy?

Economical Situation
One aspect that is often not discussed when it comes to Preparedness is a person’s economical situation. Having a solid economical situation can give the person the means that a person both has a better chance of adjusting to a changing situation but this also puts up limits to what kind of equipment, housing solutions, training and housing that can be afforded. It is quite clear that disasters does not affect all people equally; people with a high income normally has safer housing that can withstand natural disasters, has better access to education, information and the ability to leave if necessary. I suggest that you start with analyzing your economical situation in-depth; what sources of income do you have? Is there any commodity that you produce for your own needs like growing food; generating energy through solar panels etc? The second part of your analyze should cover your expenses; how much do you pay for your housing, electricity, heating, gas, telephone, internet access, insurances? How much is your expenses for food each month? Do you have any kind of savings and how much? Do you have any kind of debt and how big is it?

• Income
• Fixed expenses; Rent, Electricity, Gas, Cars, Mortgages, Food, Water etc
• Other expenses; entertainment, magazines, snacks etc
• Savings
• Loans and Debt

Equipment and Supplies
Having the right equipment can often help you during different types of Crisis and Survival Situations; but there is often a tendency to have very strong focus on this area and not putting much focus on other aspects of preparedness. I would suggest that you start with making an inventory list of what equipment that you have today. This can be an easy task for some but might be a much harder task for others. When doing so I suggest that you try to organize the Equipment into different categories such as

• Water and Water Purification
• Food
• Cooking
• Light
• Clothing and Footwear
• Sanitation and Hygiene
• Heating and Energy
• Communication
• First Aid and Medical Supplies
• Tools

Part Three - Establishing Goals and the Way Forward
When you have completed the first two steps you have a basic understanding both of the Risks that you face but also what type of tools that you have to cope with these Risks. From here it’s time to establish your personal Goals and how you’re planning to achieve them. I suggest that you start with establishing what your weak points are and what areas that is the most important for you. From you can construct a Plan for how to deal with these weaknesses.

One good point to start is to analyze how long you can support yourself in various areas; how much water to you have available? How long can your food storage support you? How long can you maintain your current expenses if you would lose your job? How much supplies do have available in the form of toilet paper, washing up liquid, washing powder, fuel and other necessities? Asking yourself this type of question can help you to establish how long you can endure different type of scenarios without external assistance and help you to balance your preparations.

After you established your Goals it’s important that you approach these Goals from a realistic perspective. If you for example would like to pay of large debts or go from being relatively unfit to a having a very high physical fitness it’s important to understand that this will take time and an effort. Getting from one point to another is a process. By dividing your analysis of your situation into different categories it’s relatively easy to see where your strong and weak points are. The point of this is also to establish balance and avoid that you put all you effort into one category like stockpiling supplies. As an example having a year’s supply of food is not going to help you in a long term emergency if you only have enough water available to make it three days or if you deplete all you’re saving so that you can’t make it a single month if you become unemployed.

Interim Goals
One method that is often used in project management is to establish interim goals in order to break down a larger task into more manageable components. For example if you have the goal of creating a food storage for one year you can break down this task into multiple steps and progress with task over time instead of buying all the supplies at once. This is often a good method since it will help you to discover what works best for you as you progress with task, no matter if it’s about figuring out what type of exercise that works best for you, what food you should store and how or to create savings.

End
Creating your plan should not only be an aspect for crisis and survival situations; it’s also about how you want to live your life. It seems to be more and more common that individuals spend all their time, resources and energy on prepping; having the ability to cope with a Crisis Situation is an important aspect that can mean the difference between life and death. The aim of this model is to help individuals get a balanced situation to help them prepare for a various forms of threats and problems; not to center their lives on preparedness.

Story Driven vs. Risk Driven Preparedness

For Many Survivalist and Preppers fictional stories are an important part of preparing for potential disasters; this article will take a quick look at these stories and suggest an alternative approach.

The End Of The World As We Know It
The World as We Know it is about to come to an end. The true reason for this can vary (economical, political, terrorism, Peak Oil, EMP etc) but the imagined end is the same. The End will come fast, very fast. It’s likely that we will experience and enormous amount of civil disturbance and violence. Everything that we have become accustomed too is likely to disappear. The Question is not if this will happen. The question is When it will happen. The signs are all around us. The state of the economy, Peak Oil, Global Warming, International Tensions, Terrorism and much more. The World System is like a House of Cards, it will only take a push and it will all come crashing down.

It’s important to stockpile food, water, weapons and ammunition. Those how haven’t will try to take what they need from those how have prepared. These “Raiders” will attack everything and everyone. Therefore it’s critical to maintain what you have an absolute secret. This is often referred to as OPSEC; if no one knows what you have they can’t steal it.

This type of Storytelling that we can see within the Prepper and Survivalist is not something that is shared by everyone, but it is relatively common. This type of stories is represented in fictional literature like James Wesley Rawles book “Patriots” and William Forstchens “One Second After” but can also be found in Hollywood movies. There are some common parts; The Belief that The World As We Know It Will Come To An End, That it will take place soon and That it can’t be stopped.

Risk Oriented Preparedness
All people face different types of Risks and Threats depending on their location. This is both affected by the Geographical location that affects what type of Natural Disasters like Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes and Tornadoes that might affect the individual. But the location is also critical for other type of potential hazards related to human activities like Human Conflict, Terrorism and Failing Technical Systems.

A Risk Assessment is a structured tool to help you create a good understanding of Risks you face but it can also create a situation of false security. It’s important that you also understand what type of events that you don’t regard as threats and why you don’t believe that this type of events poses a threat. It’s also important to realize that everyone has Blind Spots; Potential Risks that we are unaware of. There are also events that are not anticipated by almost anyone; these types of events are often referred to as Black Swans after the concept introduced by Taleb Nassim.

Building Your Capacity To Deal With Emergencies
Having the ability to Cope with Disasters not only as possessing the right tools but also having the experience and skills required to utilize these resources. Here Knowledge, Skills and Experience and Physical Fitness and Health are variables that can be more valuable than the equipment you own. Without training and skills a First Aid Kit is of little use and the same goes for all type of equipment – it can make a difference but you must be able to utilize this resource. Other Critical Factors are also External Factors like your Family, Social Network and other type of resources like First Responders that may assist you during an Emergency.

The World is Changing
The World is not a static place, the World is constantly changing and individuals are constantly changing as well. In a Risk Oriented Preparedness it is important to adapt to the changes both in your personal life but also when it comes to the situation around you. People get older, may change their location, their family situation can change and new political, economical and environmental challenges can appear. So instead of viewing the problem as a linear problem where you first make a analysis and then take action I suggest that you approach the subject from a cyclical perspective where you will always have to adapt to the ongoing reality. The same goes for skills, in order to maintain skills repeated training is required. Focus on potential disasters for what they truly are. Instead of approaching the subject from a One Size Fits all point of view where stockpiling supplies prepares you for every possible scenario actually analyze threats and risks for their specific consequences.

Two Approaches: An Analysis
There many examples throughout history when civilizations have Collapsed. There are also many contemporary examples when States have either Collapsed or Failed or various levels; Afghanistan, Somalia, Sierra Leone, The Conflict in former Yugoslavia and Rwanda are some examples. But these examples do not necessary follow the storyline imagined in fictional novels.

Many reason that if they are prepared for the absolutely worst they are also prepared for less extensive disasters like Earthquakes or Hurricanes. The Problem here is that every disaster is specific in its origin and consequences. Have a year’s worth of food do not necessary prepare you for an Earthquake; in order to prepare for this type of scenario training in First Aid, having the right Insurance and choosing a building and location that has the proper resistance may be much more important.

Disaster Preparedness is big business today. Many companies make large profits selling everything from food to flashlights, survival kits and ready to go Bug Out Bags. For many bloggers and writers making the worst predictions is a way of getting the most attention. What I want to raise in this article is that preparedness should not simply be bases upon fictional fear driven stories. You should make efforts that make sense for your personal situation and setting.

One critical factor is that the Storytelling does not welcome the idea of working together with others in the name of OPSEC. This a personal choose for everyone must make, but I personally see it as problem if people disregard the idea of working together with others based upon a fictional idea. Another critical factor is that some individuals use the SHTF / TEOTWAWKI as a Mental Model, taking any information that indicates a negative development and believes that it indicates that end is near.

In this article I have criticized some of Storytelling that often can be seen within the Survivalist and Prepper Movement. This does not mean that I do not recommend people to Prepare for Potential Disasters or Crisis Situations. The aim of The Free Online Survival Guide is to provide readers with resources so that they may enhance their own ability to deal with Crisis Situations and Disasters. This article is intended to move the Focus from the Fictional Stories that motivates many to a Perspective when you put Your own Situation, Your Own Needs and Your own Analysis in Focus.

Analyzing Risks

Two of the most popular acronyms within the Prepper and Survivalist Community are SHTF (Shit Hit The Fan) and TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It). What these acronyms truly represent is a matter that varies heavily depending on how that does the classification. Some people can use SHTF as way to describe that they lost their job while other use it to describe a full scale breakdown of modern society. In this article I will take an alternative look at this subject and try to give some alternative suggestions concerning how one can approach and think about different type of Disasters and Risks. This article is also intended to be a complement to the article about Risk Assessments intended to provide a more comprehensive framework for assessing the potential impacts of various threats.

1.) The Scale
Disasters comes in all forms and sizes; from large scale natural disasters like Earthquakes that may affect tens thousands of people to smaller disasters like automobile accidents that may just involve a few people. A disaster may just involve a few persons a personal level, it may affect a local community, a region, an entire nation or it may affect the world on a global level.

2.) Consequences
Disasters may affect people in many kinds of ways; one of the obvious results is Casualties in the form of dead and wounded. Disasters can also affect the physical and mental health of those affected; and in many cases like the nuclear power plant meltdowns in Chernobyl and Fukushima it can be very difficult to establish exactly what the long term effects for the affected will be.

Infrastructure is something that can often be affected resulting in a situation when roads, the electrical grid, gas pipes, electronic communications, water pipes and sewage maybe interrupted. This can be the case during wars and natural disasters but there are also other types of disasters like pandemics that may not affect infrastructure.

Property and Economical Loses is often a major problem when people can lose their homes, savings, businesses and jobs. People can get injured or disabled resulting in additional long term economical los.

Disasters often have Other direct consequences for politics especially in the form of blame games and assigning guilt. This can result in everything from political resignations, or new institutions like the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

This is just a few examples of what type of consequences a disaster can have; all disasters are unique and have their own specific effects. The result of these effects is not only the disaster itself, it is also an effect by the of buildings in case of earthquakes, topography, what economical resources that is available, the resources and training of first responders and the population density of an affected area just to name a few possible factors.

3.) The Perspective of Time
Fast or Slow Onset
Disasters are often viewed as fast dramatic events like the Haiti Earthquake or The Nuclear attacks against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This is however not the case in all types of disasters, some disasters slowly gain momentum like Famine and Starvation. Two examples of other potential slow onset threats are Peak Oil and Global Warming. Other type of threats like Hurricanes can be detected days before they strike and thereby allowing an Early Warning.

The Duration
Some disasters like Earthquakes and Tsunamis can cause an enormous amount of damage during a very short period of time and then be over. Other type of disasters like Famine or an Economical Depression may last for months, years or even decades.

For individuals this aspect can indicate how much food or water storage that may appropriate for different disasters, for organizations that work with Crisis Management this can provide an insight into to what type of endurance the organization must be able to poses in order to manage emergencies with an extended duration including aspects like the rotation of man-power and how much supplies that must be available.

4.) The Origin of the Disasters: Man-Made or Natural Disasters
One very popular way to describe disasters is to split them into two categories; Man-Made and Natural Disasters. Natural Disasters involve all type of natural phenomena like Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, Wild Fires, Hurricanes and Tornadoes. Man-Made disasters refer to events like Human Conflict, War, Terrorism and large scale accidents and failure of technical systems. This distinction between the origins is not perfect; many researchers emphasize that the Impact of Natural Disasters is a direct consequence of building standards, population density, access to Early Warning Systems to name a few factors. This is especially clear when it comes to number of dead in high-income countries and low income countries in various disasters. Natural Disasters can also trigger the failure of Man-Made systems like case of the Fukushima Nuclear Power plant Disaster.

Conclusion
This article is intended to provide some support for people how want to get a better understanding of Risks and Threats they may face. In this article I have discussed some of aspects of disasters but it’s important to understand that every disaster and risks presents its own specific challenges. One Size Does Not Fit All.

After you finished your Risk Assessment and Analyzed the specific Risks it’s also important to think about what Risks that you have not included into you assessments. A Risk Assessment can be of great help but it can also mask threats; especially those that does not correspond well to current trends and knowledge. What potential danger do you not view as Risks and Why? What information supports your assumptions and what information challenge them?

Also see
Risk Assessments

Travel Safety and Travel Safety Kits

Bug Out Bags, Get Home Bags and Pocket Survival Kits is often focused on Natural Disasters and other types of severe Crisis Situations. An area that is often not discussed in the Prepper and Survivalist community is Travel Safety. Today a large number of people travel all over the world to meet new people and experience new places. The price of airline tickets are currently very low and even people on a low budget can afford to travel long distances. This article will address some of the measures you can take reduce risk while travelling. Travelling to areas where the comforts we are normally used to may not be available. This article will focus on travelling and what you can do to increase your own safety.

Context Matters
Just like with Bug Out Bags or Get Home Bags context matters when it comes to Travel Safety. The precautions you take must make sense for the journey you’re planning. If you are planning on a mountain expedition in an arctic region the measures taken will be very different from the measures you should take if you’re planning on going to large city for the holidays. Some of the factors that will affect what measures you should take:
• Are you going to an Urban or Wilderness Setting?
• What Kind of Activities Do You Plan To Engage In?
• How Long Are You Planning on Staying?
• Are You Travelling Alone or in a Group?
• Are you familiar with the Region your Traveling to?
• Can you Speak and Read The Local Language?

Making Your Research
In order to be able to take the right precautions it’s important that you know as much as possible about place you’re travelling to. I suggest that you start with researching the country’s political system and modern history
• What type of political system does country have? One good source for information is the site Freedom House that ranks countries depending on the Political Right and Civil Liberties. Also check the your State Departments Current Travel Warnings.
• Make a basic research on the History and Cultural of the country you’re travelling to. Are there any cultural taboos that you should be aware of?
• Are there specific hazards in the region like crime, armed conflict or natural disasters? Are there any specific regions or parts of cities that should be avoided?
• If you’re travelling to another country what has the relation between your country and this country been? Have there been any recent cases of internal conflict or terrorist attacks within the country or armed conflict with neighboring countries?
• Another good idea can be to check the current domestic development by reading news reports from the country and check the state department’s recommendations for travel to this country.
• Is the water generally safe to drink or should you be drinking bottled water?
• What type of climate and weather can you expect?

Many popular places for travel have political systems that are corrupt or they can be dictatorships. This is often not something that is noticed by tourists; but if you for some reason get involved in an accident or get charged with a crime this can become a very serious problem. There can also be political protests against regimes like during the Arabian Spring or in Thailand. Other countries may also be very hard against journalists other how try to report on the abuse from regimes. If you’re travelling to such a country make sure that you are aware about if there are any specific locations where the opposition normally meets or if they carry some type of clothing or other markers to show their support for the opposition. Knowing the geography of the place you’re going to can also be critical; what type of terrain can you expect; are there any specific landmarks etc. Today tools like Google Maps can provide a free service for making this type of research.

The Basic Precautions
Before we get into the Travel Safety Kit there are some basic safety measures that should always be taken. Do you
[ ] Have the proper insurance if you would get hurt during your trip?
[ ] Have some extra cash or money if you would get stuck in the country for an extended period of time, unexpected expenses would arise or if you would have to book a new ticket back home?
[ ] Have a good understanding of the country you’re going to and the risks you’re facing?
[ ] Have you made a general physical check-up lately to make sure that you are in good health?
[ ] Have you checked you dental health and taken care of any problems?
[ ] Checked if there is any specific diseases that may require immunizations in the region? For travel to some countries having the right immunizations and an immunization card to prove it is mandatory; make your research.

One of the most common problems for people is that a trip can turn out to be more expensive than anticipated or unexpected expenses may. Airplanes can get delayed or stopped because of severe weather or even natural disasters like volcanoes. Other more common problems can be that the airline misplaces your luggage or that it gets stolen forcing you to get new basic supplies like clothing.

The health aspect is also critical; do what you can in order to minimize the risk that you will get injured or Ill during your trip and check up on your general health and dental health before you go. If you would get hurt it’s also critical that you have the right type of insurance that will cover your expenses. If you have any specific medical conditions like asthma or diabetes make sure that you bring some extra medication with you and that you bring your prescriptions for these. If the country does not share the language of your own get prescriptions translated to this language if possible to minimize complication in the customs. Also learn the name of your medical condition and medication in this language so that you can communicate with medical personal if you have to.

Clothing
The clothing you pick must be suitable for the climate and weather you will be experiencing; dressing to warm or cold can become a serious problem. Also try to wear clothing that blends in and does not attract too much attention. Avoid designer clothing and expensive brands, jewelry and expensive watches that may attract attention and make you a target. Just like when you’re going on a hike; break in your shoes before you leave. It may be tempting to get a new pair of footwear just before you go but it can mean that you will spend your trip with blisters and feet that constantly hurts.

The Plan
When planning your travel it can be a good idea to leave the details of your plan with a friend or family member so that they know how you’re planning to travel, what routes, where you’re planning to stay, when you’re planning to go and return etc. Leaving a copy of your passport, airline tickets, insurance information etc can also be a good idea.

The Travel Safety Kit
Fire Alarm / Burglar Alarm
Fire Safety is just as important when travelling abroad as in your home. There are a number of companies that makes portable Fire Alarms that you can take with you on your travels. There is also Fire Alarm that doubles as burglar alarms that can be attached to doors warning you if someone tries to enter your room, one model is made by the company Deltronic Security. A door stopper can be a good complement to a burglar alarm since it makes it harder to enter a room and gives you more time to respond to situation if someone tries to enter your room. When entering new accommodations check out what alternative routes you can use during an evacuation.

First Aid Kit and Medicines
A small medical kit that includes some plasters and disinfection wet wipes should be a part of any travel safety kit. How comprehensive your kit depends on what type of location you will be traveling to and how available medical assistance will be. A few pain killers and anti-diarrheal tablets is another good complement.

In regions where medical facilities may lack sterile equipment it can be a good idea to bring a basic sterile kit so that medical personal can use sterile equipment. This can be very important in order to prevent that you get diseases like AIDS/HIV or Hepatitis.

Prescription Tablets and Medication
If you need some type of prescription medication remember to include your prescriptions and if possible make sure to get the prescription in the same language that is used in country your travelling to in order to minimize problems in customs. Always bring a supply for at least a few more days than you planning to stay. This is the basics that I would recommend everyone to bring with them; but if you are going on a longer trip or engage in high risk activities like extreme sports your medical kit should be adjusted accordingly.

Protection from the Sun
If the climate is warm and sunny don’t forget to bring Sun Screen along with you. This can also be a serious problem in the arctic where the white snow reflects the rays of the sun during the spring. Remember to apply the Sun Screen before you go outside; when you start feeling pain from you burns it’s generally too late. Go for a Sun Screen that’s has the Highest Protection you can find. Protecting your eyes is also critical; especially in arctic conditions when you can get “snow blindness” if you don’t protect your eyes.

Light
A compact flashlight or headlamp is a natural part of Travel Safety Kit (TSK) and especially useful in regions where black outs is a common problem. I suggest that you get compact model that use either one AA or AAA battery since this types of batteries generally are widely available. Examples of models can be the Fenix LD-10, Sunwayman M10A, 4Sevens Quark AA Tactical or ZebraLight H51. The Petzl E+Lite and Petzl Tikka XP2 are two compact headlights that can provide both white and red light.

Survival Knife
A knife can be a tool for many uses; from everything to open a wine bottle, a can of food, to cut your nails or more serious work like cutting a seatbelt after a car crash. Before you decide on what type of knife you should bring with you on your travel make your research; what types of knives are legal to carry and where are they legal to carry in the area you’re traveling to. Remember not to carry your knife on your person or hand luggage if travelling by plane; this normally means that you will lose the knife and you may also get in legal trouble.

A pocket knife can be a valuable tool for all types of situations. In general I recommend either a Swiss Army Knife because of the versatility they provide or a Folding Knife. A Swiss Army Knife can provide with all types of tool like a bottle opener, can opener, scissor, wine opener and blade just to name a few of the features that is often included. Swiss Army Knives are also known by most people and does not attract much attention. As a general rule I do not recommend tactical knives, double edged knives, knives with a one hand opening or assisted opening no matter of the laws in the areas your visiting simply because this type of knives easily can scare others and attract unwanted attention. If you want to bring a knife of this type I suggest that you bring another knife with a more peaceful look that you can use if you ever have to use your knife in public.

No matter what type of knife you decide to get make sure that you get a high quality model; a cheap copy can fail when you need it the most. It’s important that you can rely on your blade if you would ever need it.

There are more models of knives on the market than I can name here. As I stated before in general I would recommend a Swiss Army Knife; Victorinox and Wenger both make high quality models. Find a model that has the tools that you personally need. For folding knives I would recommend that you start with looking if there are any famous models from the country or region you’re travelling to; if there is choosing such a model can help you blend in among the public. The folding Knives from Opinel are relatively cheap, comes with wooden handles and a blade look that both that can secure the blade both when it’s out and folded back into the handle. These knives are not ideal for bush craft but works well for everything from cutting bread, food and other light work during travel. If you want a more reliable folding knife with a higher quality steel Folding Knives like the Fällkniven U2, U4 or TK3 can be interesting alternatives.

Fire
I also suggest that you include some type of items that you can help you start a fire like a simple BIC lighter or a small Fire Steel. For BOB or GHB I would suggest that you normally double up so that you have at least two methods for starting a fire; but if you’re going to a Urban area one items is often more than enough and will most likely just be used to light someone’s cigarette or a candle.

Translation
If you don’t know the language normally spoken in the area you’re travelling to writing down some common phrases and words in a notebook in combination with a pocket dictionary can be helpful. A Kwikpoint Translator can be very valuable tool to bring with you since it can allow you to communicate without words.

Pen and Notebook
A compact notebook and a pen should also be a part of any travel security kit. Before you leave I suggest that you write down information like where you can find the nearest embassy, the address and phone number to important locations like the place where you will be staying, people you know in the region etc. The Notebook can also be used to write down phrases and other information. The Fisher Space Pen Bullet and Fisher Space Pen Trekker is two relatively compact high quality pens that can be worth considering for TSK.

Sewing Kit and Repair
A small sewing kit is something that can be very useful to repair clothing. A few needles, safety pins and some strong thread is normally everything you need. There are several very compact credit card sized kits on the market if you want to be a preassembled sewing kit. If you are going on a longer expedition and may have to repair packs, boots or tents made from heavy duty materials a Speedy Stitcher can be an excellent addition. Some paracord, duct tape and super flue can also be good for travel when you won’t be able to replace broken equipment.

Other Items
Having a map of the area your travelling to can be a very valuable tool, when you don’t use the map try not to show its since it’s a quite strong indicator that you can find your way. A compact compass like the Suunto M-9 or Cammenga Wrist Watch can be good for keeping your direction.

A Travel Radio can be a good tool for keeping up to date; make your research in order to know if there are any local stations broadcasting news in your language.

Cell Phones work very well in most regions; there are however places where the cell phone net does not operate. There are also countries that can have different cell phone standard than you have in your own country; this can mean that your normal cell phone won’t work. The most common problem is that it can be very expensive calling using your own number, check with your operator for the prices before you go; if the prices are high and staying for a long period of time it can be better to buy a prepaid SIM-card. The prices for sending text messages are often relatively low. Note: The prices for using data traffic from Smartphone can sometimes be enormously high; there are cases when people have gotten bills for thousands of dollars: if you have a smart phone check the prices with you operator before leaving.

If you are travelling to remote areas where Cell Phones don’t work a SPOT can be a good tool in order to signal other if you require assistance. The new generation of SPOT:s can also send messages with your progress so that your friends and relatives can see how your travel or adventures progress. Satellite phones are relatively expensive but if you have the money they can be an invaluable tool in remote areas.

Money Belts and Hidden Pockets
One of the biggest risks you’re facing is losing your equipment either from simply forgetting your pack somewhere, getting pick pocketed or mugged. This happens to many people all over the world no matter what location there travelling to. I have personally traveled with people how have lost their bag containing everything from their passport; their wallet, id, driver license, credit cards, all their cash, cell phone, the keys to their home and the keys to their accommodation. This can happen to anyone.

Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket. Separate your gear so that you have some spare cash, ID and a credit card in a separate location like an ankle pouch or money belt. If you’re travelling through an area where robbery is common it can be good idea to carry an extra wallet containing an old ID card and a little cash can be a good idea.

Pick Pockets
No matter how careful you are its very hard to protect yourself from pick pockets. Tourist are especially vulnerable since they often don’t know the terrain, where the risks are greatest and they often stand out from general crowd and may be distracted trying to find their way to other locations.

Pick Pockets are often very skilled at what they do and they can often deploy techniques like camouflage and distractions; working either alone or in teams. In short; no matter how careful you are, you always have the disadvantage. The only thing you can do is to reduce the chance you will become a target.
• Keep your wallets and other possessions in safest location you can; the back pockets on your pants is one of worst places you can carry your wallet.
• Avoid handbags where the content can be easily accessed from the top. Backpacks can also be vulnerable since people can access them from a position where you can’t see them. Safety Pins can be used to secure zippers and make it harder to open zippers in bags and clothing.
• Be especially aware when you’re travelling with public transport like buses, subways, trains, elevators and escalators since these environments often are packed with people making it hard to notice everyone around you.
• Avoid displaying expensive jewelry, watches, hand bags and expensive clothing since this signals that you might have expensive possessions worth stealing.
• Avoid travelling alone, especially during the night or in unsafe areas.
• Keep attention. Don’t walk around with headphones so that you can’t hear what’s going on around you. In some culture physical contact is much more common when talking to others; this can be used to mask the attempt of picking your pocket and stealing your equipment.
• Avoid drinking too much alcohol or use other drugs; this makes you an especially easy victim.

End
Travelling is an activity that can be related to risk. Leaving your normal setting may mean that you will have to adapt a different culture, climate, terrain and situation that you are normally use to. Even if this article has focused largely on potential threats when travelling I still would like to emphasize that all activities life is related to risk. For many people travelling can be some of the best experience they will have their life meeting new people and making friends for life. But travel can also become a very unpleasant experience if you’re not careful. Learn to plan and do what you can to manage the risk you take.

Other Articles:
Travelling with Vehicles during a Crisis or Survival Situation

The Basic Mindset for Survival

This is the first of the articles in the series “The Psychology of Survival”. The articles will describe some of the problems to you might face during a survival or crisis situation. This article will describe the nature of a crisis and what kind of problems that you may have to overcome.

The will to survive is by many experts considered to be the single most important factor for making it through a survival situation. There are many examples of people how have survived horrible situation and hopeless situations, pain and suffering, people how have kept going and against all odds made it through. Few people have died because they have continued to fight, but many have died because they stopped trying.

Any crisis or survival situation will be a difficult situation to cope with. A crisis is a situation where urgency is important, there is a threat and action must be taken fast. A crisis presents a threat against basic values like life, health or property. A crisis also results in uncertainty; the scope of the disaster is seldom known right away. It is also often unclear what current and future consequences the event will have. These three factors make it into a difficult task of handling a crisis: for individuals but also for government agencies and the media.

Some examples of possible threats that can result in a crisis or survival situation can be found in the chapter about Risk Assessments. By familiarizing yourself with different types of Risks you will get a more realistic perspective on what effects such a situation might result in and what can be learned from previous situations. It also helps you to mentally prepare for what you could expect from these situations but also gives you a chance to plan ahead and take precautions in order to avoid or minimize the effects from such risks. However some disasters may be threats that no one has seen coming or been preparing for, these situations present much larger challenges when it’s hard for the affected people to understand what is happening and government agencies may lack both routines, training and equipment to deal with the situation.

Possible challenges
• Sleep Deprivation and Fatigue
• Loss of property or economic loss
• Personal Injuries
• Disease
• Fear and Uncertainty
• Exposure from wind, cold or heat
• Dehydration or lack of food
• Stress
• Injuries or death to friends or loved ones
• Unfamiliar threats and situations

It’s up to you
In some situation government agencies may be able to provide healthcare and other needs like shelter, water, food and security. But during a large scale disaster no government has enough resources to provide immediate help to everyone that needs it. Infrastructure like the electrical grid, water, sewage, roads, railways and airports may be damaged. This can make it hard to transport the resources and supplies needed to an affected area. It may also result in a situation with secondary effects like the outbreak of disease, no access to clean water and dangerous or damaged buildings. In these situations you must help yourself. There may be days, weeks or even months before outside assistance will be provided. During large scale disasters help is normally provided from both national government agencies like first responders, police, fire fighters, military, national guard but also from Non Governmental Organization (NGO:s) like the Red Cross. If the situation is extremely severe help may also be provide by other nations and international organization like the United Nation World Food Program (WFP).

Staying positive is extremely important and this can be very hard if suffer from exhaustion, sleep deprivation, stress, injuries, disease or if you just lost someone that you care about. If let you self become negative the risk is much bigger that you will only see problems, if you try to stay positive the chance to you will be able to find solutions for different problems is much bigger. This also makes it easier to improvise and work with the terrain. Your own knowledge, health, experience and equipment will also make it easier to find solutions.

The nature of a crisis situation makes it very likely that both government agencies and the media may misinterpret the situation when they have to make decisions based on incomplete information under time pressure when people lives and property are on stake. Even if experts and journalists have access to modern communications and training no one can get everything right during this type of situation. This is the nature of the situation and you must take this is into consideration when you receive information.
• It’s of no use to become angry or feel despair if information about help turns out to be incorrect, this must be expected. Keep your focus on the situation at hand.

Adapting to the situation
• Try to stay positive
• Do not complain, especially not if you are in a leadership position. Your reactions will affect others as well.
• Make sure that you keep busy. Work continually to improve your situation, ensure that you have the access to shelter, water and food.
• If you are in a group make sure that everyone has a task to do and that everyone is included in the work and that everyone has access to the information available about the situation.
• Don’t second guess yourself; keep the focus on the situation at hand. What can you do to minimize the consequences and improve your situation?
• Try to stay alert and calm.
• Plan your actions and take risk into account – if you injure yourself during a survival situation because you’re careless your situation might become much more difficult.
• Take care of your friends, family and the other people around you.

Be Ready
It’s impossible to be prepared for every possible threat, but by getting knowledge, skills and experience you will improve your chances to survive a crisis situation. Equipment and supplies can also make it much easier to deal with crisis situation if you have access to water, means of purifying water, food, equipment to prepare the food, a radio so that you receive messages, different sources of light, first aid and other medical supplies and so on.

A Survival Knife, Pocket Survival Kit and Get Home Bag (GHB) can provide you with equipment to deal with a crisis or survival situation in your everyday life.