I would like to give thanks to the sites that have promoted my blog after I introduced The Free Online Survival Guide. First of all I would like to say thanks to Kev and all the others at the Survivalist Boards for making the post about the guide sticky. I would also like to say thanks to ASPO Sweden, Daily Survival, American Preppers Network and Despierto that writes the Swedish Blog “Blott Sverige Svenska Preppers Har”.
In Sweden the first terrorist attack involving a suicide bomber has taken place and luckily no one but the bomber where killed. A longer article about the topic terrorism might follow later.
I would also like to recommend the new National Geographic documentary “2210: The Collapse?” based on the book by Jared Diamond. The documentary is a high budget project with a number of different researchers from different fields. A new fictional movie project called “Remnants” is also under way; trailers can be seen on YouTube.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Thanks
Labels:
Collapse,
Crisis Preparedness,
Jared Diamond,
Remnants,
survival,
survivalism
Monday, December 6, 2010
Get Home Bag
The Bug Out Bag (BOB) is an tool intended to be used in situations that requires evacuation from an area. The BOB can be designed in many sizes and forms but are normally quite heavy and stored in the home. The Get Home Bag (GHB) as a tool intended to provide equipment to allow an individual to reach the home during a crisis or survival situation, for example if the person is at work when a disaster strikes. The Bag should not only serve as a tool for coping with disaster but also function as your every day resource for dealing with problems. What content your Get Home Bag should have depends on where you live, how long you may have to travel to get back home and your specific situation.
Being Prepared
The GHB is only a small part of being ready for a disaster. For anyone how is serious about getting ready for a crisis I would recommend that you start out with your health and physical fitness. Go to a doctor and make a checkup. Also visit a dentist and fix any problems you may have with your teeth, in a survival situation a bad tooth can cause infection and a serious health hazard and great discomfort. Your Physical Fitness is very important if you have to make a long walk or march by foot. Start exercising three times a week with an activity that you find interesting and stimulating. The items in your bag is only tools, they are only valuable if you know how to use them. A Fire Steel is of little use if you can’t start a fire with it. Training this kind of skills is critical if you want to be able to use them in a real life situation. The same goes for all Skills, no matter if it is Self Defense, Starting a Fire, First Aid or Navigation.
Clothing
Your clothing provides your shield against the elements. Your clothing must be appropriate for your particular climate. Shell jackets provide excellent protection from wind and rain; also get a pair of gloves and hat or watch cap. Merino wool is an excellent material for t-shirts and a sock that does not cool the body when it wets like cotton do. Your shoes are perhaps the most import part in any situation when you have to walk a longer distance. Make sure that they are comfortable and if possible also waterproof. A watch is also something that you should try to carry at all times. Your cell phone can be vital tool for communication in many emergencies, make sure that you have In Case of Emergency (ICE) numbers programmed if something would happen to you. A water proof container for the phone can help keeping it safe from the elements. Some phone may also have useful application like a flashlight, compass, FM/AM radio and GPS. If you have a phone that has a short battery life a spare battery can be essential.
The Bag
What kind of bag you should get depends on your Every Day Activites. Ideally you should be able to carry both the items that you need for your everyday activities like a computer, notes, books, lunch box and other essentials in addition to the items you carry for crisis preparedness. Another option is to have a separate bag for emergencies in your vehicle or at your office.
The size of the bag depends on how much space you need and what kind of bag that you prefer. Back packs are generally the most comfortable solution especially if you have a heavy pack. Shoulder bags can be a good alternative but are not as comfortable to carry if they are heavy since al the weight of the bag will be on one shoulder. There are also bags that are a mix between backpacks and shoulders bags called gear slingers. Maxpedition make some interesting bags in this category like the Monsoon, Sitka and Kodiak. There are a number of different companies that makes excellent bags like Kifaru, Snugpack, 5.11, Fjällräven, Osprey, JanSport, Lundhags, Klättermusen, Haglöfs, Exped, The North Face, Norröna, Bergans, GoLite and Arcteryx. Find a bag that fits your needs and that is comfortable to carry.
Suggested items for the Get Home Bag - Checklist
Shelter
[ ] A Get Home Bag should have some kind of shelter than can help shield you from the elements, this can for example be a Light Weight Poncho, Bivanorak, Fjellduk, Exped Bivi-Poncho, Emergency Blanket or Light Weight Tarp.
Water
[ ] Water is something that can be critical in a survival situation and your bag should have at least one small water bottle, the bottles from Nalgene, Camelback, Klean Kanteen and SIGG has a high quality, but a normal soda bottle can be used as well. This can also help you save money instead of buying soft drinks while on the move. If you have to purify unsafe water after a disaster it can be good to include some water purification tablets or a compact water filter.
Fire
[ ] Some kind of item that can help you start a Fire like a Fire Steel, Lighter, Matches in a Waterproof container and tinder.
Survival Knife
[ ] A Survival Knife is a useful tool but you must check what the specific legal aspect of this is for your country – what kind of knives are legal and where is it allowed to carry them? There are also credit card sized tool kits from Victorinox and Tool Logic that you can carry in your wallet at all times.
Light
[ ] A Compact Flashlight or Headlamp can provide light in dark conditions and be used for signaling. Choose a compact light that doesn’t take up to much space in your bag. Compact flashlights thats using a single AA or AAA battery can be found from Fenix and 4Sevens, the anglelights from ZebraLight can also be an interesting alternative.
[ ] Roadmap / Citymap and Compass or GPS
[ ] Notebook and Pen, excellent for writing down important information or for leaving a note. I personally like the notebooks from Rite in the Rain.
[ ] A Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Paracord or Duct Tape
[ ] Signal Mirror, SPOT, Chemical Light Sticks, Emergency Strobe or Whistle
[ ] Compact AM/FM/Shortwave radio with Dynamo or A Compact Radio Scanner.
[ ] Paper Tissues can be used as Tinder or as Emergency Toilet Paper.
[ ] A compact First Aid Kit with some basic band aids and disinfection wipes can be a good thing for treating small cuts and treating wounds. The first aid kit is important but the most important part is that you take a course so that you know CPR and the basic skills. Also include some painkillers and anti-diarrheal tablets. If it is flu-season a small tube with alcohol based disinfection may also be a useful addition.
Advantages
• Lighter and more compact than a Bug Out Bag
• The bag be used as an Every Day Carry Bag
• Provides an resource to deal with problems in your everyday life
Disadvantages
• Not as comprehensive as a Bug Out Bag (BOB)
You’re Get Home Bag and Your Every Day Carry
Most people carry at least some items on their person that can be useful during an emergency or survival situation. These items are often refered to as a persons Every Day Carry (EDC). Many Survivalist and Preppers may carry items like Pocket Knives, Flashlights, Lighters or even a Pocket Survival Kit. Your GHB should be built with this factor in consideration. If you carry lighter on your person it can be a good idea to consider another tool to create a fire like a Fire Steel or Matches for your GHB. If you have a Flashlight that use a particular type of batteries as EDC and want a Headlamp for your GHB it can be a good idea to choose a model that use the same type of batteries as the Flashlight or if you carry a Swiss Army Knife for EDC it can be a good idea to consider a Fixed Blade Knife or Multi-Tool for your GHB.
Summary
A Get Home Bag is a concept that lands somewhere between your Every Day Carry and a Light Weight Bug Out Bag. There is no clear line between the different concepts, the important thing is that you create a concept that fits your personal needs and provides the tools that you need. Disasters can strike without any warning and even if your Get Home Bag is not designed to provide the function for an evacuation you may have to make do with this bag or your Every Day Carry in a worst case scenario. Equipment is an import part of preparedness, but items can be lost or incomplete. The main focus of your efforts should always be too improve your health and physical fitness, learn relevant skills and your improving your knowledge since these are the things that is always with you, no matter the situation.
Other Articles
Get Home Bags - Examples of Setups
Light Weight Bug Out Bags
Light Weight Bug Out Bags - Examples of Setups
Building The Right Bug Out Bag For You
Being Prepared
The GHB is only a small part of being ready for a disaster. For anyone how is serious about getting ready for a crisis I would recommend that you start out with your health and physical fitness. Go to a doctor and make a checkup. Also visit a dentist and fix any problems you may have with your teeth, in a survival situation a bad tooth can cause infection and a serious health hazard and great discomfort. Your Physical Fitness is very important if you have to make a long walk or march by foot. Start exercising three times a week with an activity that you find interesting and stimulating. The items in your bag is only tools, they are only valuable if you know how to use them. A Fire Steel is of little use if you can’t start a fire with it. Training this kind of skills is critical if you want to be able to use them in a real life situation. The same goes for all Skills, no matter if it is Self Defense, Starting a Fire, First Aid or Navigation.
Clothing
Your clothing provides your shield against the elements. Your clothing must be appropriate for your particular climate. Shell jackets provide excellent protection from wind and rain; also get a pair of gloves and hat or watch cap. Merino wool is an excellent material for t-shirts and a sock that does not cool the body when it wets like cotton do. Your shoes are perhaps the most import part in any situation when you have to walk a longer distance. Make sure that they are comfortable and if possible also waterproof. A watch is also something that you should try to carry at all times. Your cell phone can be vital tool for communication in many emergencies, make sure that you have In Case of Emergency (ICE) numbers programmed if something would happen to you. A water proof container for the phone can help keeping it safe from the elements. Some phone may also have useful application like a flashlight, compass, FM/AM radio and GPS. If you have a phone that has a short battery life a spare battery can be essential.
The Bag
What kind of bag you should get depends on your Every Day Activites. Ideally you should be able to carry both the items that you need for your everyday activities like a computer, notes, books, lunch box and other essentials in addition to the items you carry for crisis preparedness. Another option is to have a separate bag for emergencies in your vehicle or at your office.
The size of the bag depends on how much space you need and what kind of bag that you prefer. Back packs are generally the most comfortable solution especially if you have a heavy pack. Shoulder bags can be a good alternative but are not as comfortable to carry if they are heavy since al the weight of the bag will be on one shoulder. There are also bags that are a mix between backpacks and shoulders bags called gear slingers. Maxpedition make some interesting bags in this category like the Monsoon, Sitka and Kodiak. There are a number of different companies that makes excellent bags like Kifaru, Snugpack, 5.11, Fjällräven, Osprey, JanSport, Lundhags, Klättermusen, Haglöfs, Exped, The North Face, Norröna, Bergans, GoLite and Arcteryx. Find a bag that fits your needs and that is comfortable to carry.
Suggested items for the Get Home Bag - Checklist
Shelter
[ ] A Get Home Bag should have some kind of shelter than can help shield you from the elements, this can for example be a Light Weight Poncho, Bivanorak, Fjellduk, Exped Bivi-Poncho, Emergency Blanket or Light Weight Tarp.
Water
[ ] Water is something that can be critical in a survival situation and your bag should have at least one small water bottle, the bottles from Nalgene, Camelback, Klean Kanteen and SIGG has a high quality, but a normal soda bottle can be used as well. This can also help you save money instead of buying soft drinks while on the move. If you have to purify unsafe water after a disaster it can be good to include some water purification tablets or a compact water filter.
Fire
[ ] Some kind of item that can help you start a Fire like a Fire Steel, Lighter, Matches in a Waterproof container and tinder.
Survival Knife
[ ] A Survival Knife is a useful tool but you must check what the specific legal aspect of this is for your country – what kind of knives are legal and where is it allowed to carry them? There are also credit card sized tool kits from Victorinox and Tool Logic that you can carry in your wallet at all times.
Light
[ ] A Compact Flashlight or Headlamp can provide light in dark conditions and be used for signaling. Choose a compact light that doesn’t take up to much space in your bag. Compact flashlights thats using a single AA or AAA battery can be found from Fenix and 4Sevens, the anglelights from ZebraLight can also be an interesting alternative.
[ ] Roadmap / Citymap and Compass or GPS
[ ] Notebook and Pen, excellent for writing down important information or for leaving a note. I personally like the notebooks from Rite in the Rain.
[ ] A Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Paracord or Duct Tape
[ ] Signal Mirror, SPOT, Chemical Light Sticks, Emergency Strobe or Whistle
[ ] Compact AM/FM/Shortwave radio with Dynamo or A Compact Radio Scanner.
[ ] Paper Tissues can be used as Tinder or as Emergency Toilet Paper.
[ ] A compact First Aid Kit with some basic band aids and disinfection wipes can be a good thing for treating small cuts and treating wounds. The first aid kit is important but the most important part is that you take a course so that you know CPR and the basic skills. Also include some painkillers and anti-diarrheal tablets. If it is flu-season a small tube with alcohol based disinfection may also be a useful addition.
Advantages
• Lighter and more compact than a Bug Out Bag
• The bag be used as an Every Day Carry Bag
• Provides an resource to deal with problems in your everyday life
Disadvantages
• Not as comprehensive as a Bug Out Bag (BOB)
You’re Get Home Bag and Your Every Day Carry
Most people carry at least some items on their person that can be useful during an emergency or survival situation. These items are often refered to as a persons Every Day Carry (EDC). Many Survivalist and Preppers may carry items like Pocket Knives, Flashlights, Lighters or even a Pocket Survival Kit. Your GHB should be built with this factor in consideration. If you carry lighter on your person it can be a good idea to consider another tool to create a fire like a Fire Steel or Matches for your GHB. If you have a Flashlight that use a particular type of batteries as EDC and want a Headlamp for your GHB it can be a good idea to choose a model that use the same type of batteries as the Flashlight or if you carry a Swiss Army Knife for EDC it can be a good idea to consider a Fixed Blade Knife or Multi-Tool for your GHB.
Summary
A Get Home Bag is a concept that lands somewhere between your Every Day Carry and a Light Weight Bug Out Bag. There is no clear line between the different concepts, the important thing is that you create a concept that fits your personal needs and provides the tools that you need. Disasters can strike without any warning and even if your Get Home Bag is not designed to provide the function for an evacuation you may have to make do with this bag or your Every Day Carry in a worst case scenario. Equipment is an import part of preparedness, but items can be lost or incomplete. The main focus of your efforts should always be too improve your health and physical fitness, learn relevant skills and your improving your knowledge since these are the things that is always with you, no matter the situation.
Other Articles
Get Home Bags - Examples of Setups
Light Weight Bug Out Bags
Light Weight Bug Out Bags - Examples of Setups
Building The Right Bug Out Bag For You
Labels:
Crisis Preparedness,
Equipment,
Fenix,
Get Home Bag,
GHB,
survival,
survival knives,
survivalism,
ZebraLight
Thursday, December 2, 2010
The Limits to Growth
More and more scientists have started to suggest that the human civilization uses natural recourses in way that will not be sustainable in a long term perspective. These issues have also gotten more and more attention in the media with movies like “Home”, “Blind Spot” and the National Geographic documentary “Collapse” based on the book by Jared Diamond. This post is an attempt to introduce the concept of “The Limits To Growth”, what the theory is and on what arguments and assumptions it is based.
The Limits to Growth
Even if these issues only lately have started to get more wide spread attention some scientists have been talking about these issues for a long period of time. One of the most criticized and famous reports of all about sustainable development is the book/report ”The Limits to Growth”. The report was written by a number of scientists; Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William W Behrens in the beginning of the 1970s. The report was commissioned by the think tank “The Club of Rome”.
The report starts with discussing the problems of perception for most people, most people are totally focused on their own personal lives, their own work, their own family and what they will be doing the next couple of days. From this perspective many people have a hard time taking the time to get to know what is happening in national or even global perspective. It’s even harder to see how changes will occur on a global scale in a distant future.
Exponential Growth
The report is an attempt to describe our world and its complexity and how different factors correlate with each other through System Dynamics. One of the central parts of the report is exponential growth. Linear growth means that something increases step by step like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Exponential growth mean that something increase exponentially. One famous examples is the Persian legend about the creator of the chess board how wanted one grain for the first square of the board, two on the second, four on the forth, eight on the fifth etc for his creation from the Prince that ordered it. On the tenth square the number would be 512, on the fifteenth 16384, and more than one million grains on the 21st square of the board. By the 64th square of the board the number of grain would be larger than the number of grain that the Prince owned. Exponential growth can quickly create enormous increases, something that can be seen in for example nature when cell samples increase in the same way until they consume all resources in laboratory experiments. If something increase with 0,1 % every year the doubling time would be 700 years, If something increases with 1% the doubling time would be 70 years, 4% mean 18 years, 7% ten years, 10% seven years and so on.
Limitation in the natural world
The base of the theory is that the world only has a certain number of non renewable resources and that if the human population continue to grow in an exponential way the human civilization will be unable to sustain the population.
The scientist also fear that this can cause an overshoot. An overshoot is a term from biology that refers to a situation when for example a species rapidly increase through exponential growth over the carrying capacity of the environment, causing the population to collapse. The theory is that the world only has a number of non renewable resources that has been accumulated during a long period of time like topsoil, ground water, forests, fossil fuels and other recourses that allow the human population to increase beyond the limits of what that is sustainable in long term perspective. So without these non renewable resources the planet will not have the carrying capacity to support the world population.
Computer models
The scientist has then used computer simulation to simulate different scenarios from the data that was available when the report was made. Some of the predictions have been very precise like the population increase in the world that has gone from 3,6 billion in 1972 when the report was written to the almost 6,8 billion people that the world has today 40 years later. The computer models were created with assistance from researchers working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Perspectives on Technology
The report also discuss Positive and Negative views on technology and what possibilities that future technology will present for solving problems with food, energy, pollution and other issues. I believe that this view can seen clearly today where some researchers believe that continued global exponential growth can cause a collapse and other how believe that technology will find solutions for every problem.
Prospects for the future
The researchers of the book also discuss the possibility of changing the system from the system that we had towards a more sustainable system. They believe that gradual change is desired but that’s it not likely that governments will take actions to ensure a sustainable development. This was written in 1972. The researchers also conclude that the longer humanity wait, the less options there will be to change the system. Another conclusion is that sooner or later there will be a change. The question is only if it will be naturally imposed by reaching the limitations to growth. In this case all we have to do is to just wait and see what happens. From this perspective taking no action is making a choice. Every day of continued exponential growth brings the world closer to the ultimate limit of growth. The solution suggested is to find a State of Equilibrium where humanity can live on the earth finding sustainable solutions without exponential growth.
Summary
The Limits of Growth suggest that if the human society continues to grow at an exponential rate the human race will sooner or later deplete the non renewable resources that it depends on causing an overshoot resulting in a situation whne the human population no longer can be sustained. There has also been two updates to the book, one 20 years after the first book was first published in 1992; “Beyond The Limits: Global Collapse or Sustainable Development” and another update 30 years later ;“The Limits On Growth the 30 years update”. The original 1972 report was written during the cold war and whole different time than the one we live in today, but the theory presented is very similar to theories presented by contemporary scientists and writers.
New additions
Many researchers view the world from a similar perspective, two new examples are Joseph Tainter, author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies” and Jared Diamond author of “Collapse: How Societies Choose To Succeed Or Fail”. Both Diamond and Tainter has done research on past human societies that have failed or collapsed and directly and indirectly support the theory that human societies often have depleted the resources and destroyed the environment on which they depend, sometimes with disastrous consequences like the case of the Eastern Islands. The Peak Oil Movement can also be viewed from a similar perspective even if it’s mainly focused on the depletion of fossil fuels and the consequences of this. Partly this concept has also been adapted by other writers like Michael Ruppert and Dmitry Orlov.
Analysis
The Theory of the Limits of Growth raises some serious question about how human societies work and the future for the human civilization project. The theory is also in sharp contradiction with current political ideologies that all favor and speak of growth, no matter if they present a perspective that’s from the left / right, conservative or liberal, socialist / capitalistic or even a green perspective. Exponential growth has been the truth for the human civilization since the beginning of the industrialized revolution and is something that is deeply rooted in our minds and ideologies. This produces an enormous ideological difference between those how believe that growth has limits and those how believe that there is basically no limits to growth, a view shared by many within the economic community.
It’s my personal belief that today’s economical system is largely focused on short term profits. The focus of this system is not what will happen in ten or twenty years, but what happens with the profits and budget this year. This short term perspective is profitable for many; states, individuals and companies but may prove to be a bad lens in order to identify long terms threats. In short: We are too focused on the present to think about the future. Exponential growth has been a truth for a long time, why would anyone expect that’s this will not be the case in the future?
Personally I do that there are limits to growth and that the earth can’t sustain an unlimited amount of people. When this point will be reached and exactly what consequences this will have is hard to say. Some researchers say that we may already be there, others that it may take place within decades or hundreds of years. So what can one expect if this scenario would come true? One obvious factor is that economic growth will slow down and eventually start to decline on a regional or global level. Starvation and Famine will start to increase and the people suffering for malnourishment will start to increase. The access to other commodities like oil, land, fresh water, energy and metals will become more scares when more people will have to share fewer resources. It’s also possible that new solutions may solve problems with energy and other issues, if this will happen can only time tell.
Survival and Preparedness
If the theory of “The Limits to Growth” would become a reality the world as we know will change in drastic ways. One can only speculate how the human societies will manage such a situation, but my guess is that politicians and others will have a hard time identifying the reasons for why this decline of growth takes place and that there will be major ideological clashes between different groups. This will mean that we would have to redefine the way we perceive the world.
So how does one prepare for such a scenario? The first part that would be hard to overcome is the perception that we will always have continued economical growth. The other part would be to find sustainable solution for issues like food production, water sources, energy and eventually learning how to make do with fewer resources.
The Limits to Growth
Even if these issues only lately have started to get more wide spread attention some scientists have been talking about these issues for a long period of time. One of the most criticized and famous reports of all about sustainable development is the book/report ”The Limits to Growth”. The report was written by a number of scientists; Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William W Behrens in the beginning of the 1970s. The report was commissioned by the think tank “The Club of Rome”.
The report starts with discussing the problems of perception for most people, most people are totally focused on their own personal lives, their own work, their own family and what they will be doing the next couple of days. From this perspective many people have a hard time taking the time to get to know what is happening in national or even global perspective. It’s even harder to see how changes will occur on a global scale in a distant future.
Exponential Growth
The report is an attempt to describe our world and its complexity and how different factors correlate with each other through System Dynamics. One of the central parts of the report is exponential growth. Linear growth means that something increases step by step like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Exponential growth mean that something increase exponentially. One famous examples is the Persian legend about the creator of the chess board how wanted one grain for the first square of the board, two on the second, four on the forth, eight on the fifth etc for his creation from the Prince that ordered it. On the tenth square the number would be 512, on the fifteenth 16384, and more than one million grains on the 21st square of the board. By the 64th square of the board the number of grain would be larger than the number of grain that the Prince owned. Exponential growth can quickly create enormous increases, something that can be seen in for example nature when cell samples increase in the same way until they consume all resources in laboratory experiments. If something increase with 0,1 % every year the doubling time would be 700 years, If something increases with 1% the doubling time would be 70 years, 4% mean 18 years, 7% ten years, 10% seven years and so on.
Limitation in the natural world
The base of the theory is that the world only has a certain number of non renewable resources and that if the human population continue to grow in an exponential way the human civilization will be unable to sustain the population.
The scientist also fear that this can cause an overshoot. An overshoot is a term from biology that refers to a situation when for example a species rapidly increase through exponential growth over the carrying capacity of the environment, causing the population to collapse. The theory is that the world only has a number of non renewable resources that has been accumulated during a long period of time like topsoil, ground water, forests, fossil fuels and other recourses that allow the human population to increase beyond the limits of what that is sustainable in long term perspective. So without these non renewable resources the planet will not have the carrying capacity to support the world population.
Computer models
The scientist has then used computer simulation to simulate different scenarios from the data that was available when the report was made. Some of the predictions have been very precise like the population increase in the world that has gone from 3,6 billion in 1972 when the report was written to the almost 6,8 billion people that the world has today 40 years later. The computer models were created with assistance from researchers working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Perspectives on Technology
The report also discuss Positive and Negative views on technology and what possibilities that future technology will present for solving problems with food, energy, pollution and other issues. I believe that this view can seen clearly today where some researchers believe that continued global exponential growth can cause a collapse and other how believe that technology will find solutions for every problem.
Prospects for the future
The researchers of the book also discuss the possibility of changing the system from the system that we had towards a more sustainable system. They believe that gradual change is desired but that’s it not likely that governments will take actions to ensure a sustainable development. This was written in 1972. The researchers also conclude that the longer humanity wait, the less options there will be to change the system. Another conclusion is that sooner or later there will be a change. The question is only if it will be naturally imposed by reaching the limitations to growth. In this case all we have to do is to just wait and see what happens. From this perspective taking no action is making a choice. Every day of continued exponential growth brings the world closer to the ultimate limit of growth. The solution suggested is to find a State of Equilibrium where humanity can live on the earth finding sustainable solutions without exponential growth.
Summary
The Limits of Growth suggest that if the human society continues to grow at an exponential rate the human race will sooner or later deplete the non renewable resources that it depends on causing an overshoot resulting in a situation whne the human population no longer can be sustained. There has also been two updates to the book, one 20 years after the first book was first published in 1992; “Beyond The Limits: Global Collapse or Sustainable Development” and another update 30 years later ;“The Limits On Growth the 30 years update”. The original 1972 report was written during the cold war and whole different time than the one we live in today, but the theory presented is very similar to theories presented by contemporary scientists and writers.
New additions
Many researchers view the world from a similar perspective, two new examples are Joseph Tainter, author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies” and Jared Diamond author of “Collapse: How Societies Choose To Succeed Or Fail”. Both Diamond and Tainter has done research on past human societies that have failed or collapsed and directly and indirectly support the theory that human societies often have depleted the resources and destroyed the environment on which they depend, sometimes with disastrous consequences like the case of the Eastern Islands. The Peak Oil Movement can also be viewed from a similar perspective even if it’s mainly focused on the depletion of fossil fuels and the consequences of this. Partly this concept has also been adapted by other writers like Michael Ruppert and Dmitry Orlov.
Analysis
The Theory of the Limits of Growth raises some serious question about how human societies work and the future for the human civilization project. The theory is also in sharp contradiction with current political ideologies that all favor and speak of growth, no matter if they present a perspective that’s from the left / right, conservative or liberal, socialist / capitalistic or even a green perspective. Exponential growth has been the truth for the human civilization since the beginning of the industrialized revolution and is something that is deeply rooted in our minds and ideologies. This produces an enormous ideological difference between those how believe that growth has limits and those how believe that there is basically no limits to growth, a view shared by many within the economic community.
It’s my personal belief that today’s economical system is largely focused on short term profits. The focus of this system is not what will happen in ten or twenty years, but what happens with the profits and budget this year. This short term perspective is profitable for many; states, individuals and companies but may prove to be a bad lens in order to identify long terms threats. In short: We are too focused on the present to think about the future. Exponential growth has been a truth for a long time, why would anyone expect that’s this will not be the case in the future?
Personally I do that there are limits to growth and that the earth can’t sustain an unlimited amount of people. When this point will be reached and exactly what consequences this will have is hard to say. Some researchers say that we may already be there, others that it may take place within decades or hundreds of years. So what can one expect if this scenario would come true? One obvious factor is that economic growth will slow down and eventually start to decline on a regional or global level. Starvation and Famine will start to increase and the people suffering for malnourishment will start to increase. The access to other commodities like oil, land, fresh water, energy and metals will become more scares when more people will have to share fewer resources. It’s also possible that new solutions may solve problems with energy and other issues, if this will happen can only time tell.
Survival and Preparedness
If the theory of “The Limits to Growth” would become a reality the world as we know will change in drastic ways. One can only speculate how the human societies will manage such a situation, but my guess is that politicians and others will have a hard time identifying the reasons for why this decline of growth takes place and that there will be major ideological clashes between different groups. This will mean that we would have to redefine the way we perceive the world.
So how does one prepare for such a scenario? The first part that would be hard to overcome is the perception that we will always have continued economical growth. The other part would be to find sustainable solution for issues like food production, water sources, energy and eventually learning how to make do with fewer resources.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
The Free Online Survival Guide
So after writing articles here on the blog and at The Survivalist Boards for over one year I have completed a number of different articles on various subjects related to survival. This is the first basic structure of The Free Online Survival Guide. I will keep working on it, adding more information and new articles. It’s my intention to provide a free resource for anyone hows interested in the field of survival, crisis preparedness and survivalism.
I would like to thank all members of The Survivalist Boards for their advice and the insights that they have brought to different subject. I have enjoyed writing the articles and hope that some people will find them useful. I’m hoping that we will eventually get a Survival Wiki on the boards so that we can start writing articles and guides together in a more structured and organized way, I really believe that such a tool could take the Boards to the next level.
The Free Online Survival Guide
Chapter One
1.) The Westfalian Risk Management Model
2.) Get The Ability to Cope With a Crisis Situation
3.) Risk Assessments
4.) Analyzing Risks
5.) The Media in a Crisis or Survival Situation
6.) Gathering Information During a Crisis or Survival Situation: HumInt and Interviews
7.) How You Can Reduce Your Own Vulnerability
8.) Travelling With Vehicles During a Crisis or Survival Situation.
9.) Travel Safety and Travel Safety Kits
10.) Staying Warm During a Survival or Crisis Situation
11.) Light during Emergencies and Survival situations
12.) Survival Training
13.) Responding To An Emerging Crisis
Chapter Two – Water and Food
1.) Water
2.) Food and Starvation
Chapter Three – Bugging Out
Introduction to Evacuation and Bug Out Bags
1.) Building The Right Bug Out Bag For You
2.) The Bug Out Plan
3.) Bug Out Guide and Checklist
4.) Light Weight Bug Out Bags
5.) Bugging Out as a Group
6.) Bugging Out Using Bikes
7.) Building a Bug Out Bag on a Budget
8.) Bug Out Bag - Example of a Setup
9.) Light Weight Bug Out Bag - Examples of Setups
10.) Bug Out Bag built on Ultra Light Equipment
11.) Bugging Out As A Group - Examples of Setups
12.) Urban Bug Out Bags
13.) Bug Out Bags for Women
14.) An Education - The Most Important Tool For a Bug Out?
Chapter Four
1.) Bug In - An Introduction
2.) The Bug In Plan
3.) Equipment List For Your Home - Checklist
4.) Surviving Fires and Fire Safety
Chapter Five
1.) Pocket Survival Kits
2.) Survival Knives
3.) Equipment and Techniques to start a Fire
4.) Scandinavian Survival Equipment
5.) Every Day Carry (EDC)
6.) Get Home Bag (GHB)
7.) Get Home Bags - Examples of Setups
Chapter Six
1.) Human Conflict, Wars and Survival
2.) Peace Building and State building missions
3.) Private Military Companies, Private Security Companies and Mercenaries
Chapter Seven – Weapons of Mass Destruction
1.) Biological Warfare and Disease
2.) Chemical Warfare
3.) Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Dangers
Chapter Eight
1.) The Collapse of Civilizations and Societies: Part One
2.) The Collapse of Civilizations and Societies: Part Two
Chapter Nine
1.) Peak Oil
2.) Things That You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
3.) The Limits To Growth
4.) Is Peak Oil Already Here?
Chapter Ten - Natural Disasters
1.) Earthquakes
2.) Volcanoes
3.) Tsunami
4.) Hurricanes
5.) Tornado
Chapter Eleven - The Psychology of Survival
1.) The Basic Mindset for Survival
Chapter Twelve - For Swedish Survivalists
1.) For Swedish Survivalists
Chapter Thirteen - Movies, Videos and Books
1.) List of Survival Related Documentaries and Videos
2.) Survival Related Blogs and WebPages
3.) Recommended Books and Your Survival Library
4.) List of Companies That Makes Survival Related Equipment
Other Articles about Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cable and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
US EIA - No Peak In World Oil Production in another 23 years
Other Articles
Another look at the Bug Out Bag
Survivalism for Dummies
I would like to thank all members of The Survivalist Boards for their advice and the insights that they have brought to different subject. I have enjoyed writing the articles and hope that some people will find them useful. I’m hoping that we will eventually get a Survival Wiki on the boards so that we can start writing articles and guides together in a more structured and organized way, I really believe that such a tool could take the Boards to the next level.
The Free Online Survival Guide
Chapter One
1.) The Westfalian Risk Management Model
2.) Get The Ability to Cope With a Crisis Situation
3.) Risk Assessments
4.) Analyzing Risks
5.) The Media in a Crisis or Survival Situation
6.) Gathering Information During a Crisis or Survival Situation: HumInt and Interviews
7.) How You Can Reduce Your Own Vulnerability
8.) Travelling With Vehicles During a Crisis or Survival Situation.
9.) Travel Safety and Travel Safety Kits
10.) Staying Warm During a Survival or Crisis Situation
11.) Light during Emergencies and Survival situations
12.) Survival Training
13.) Responding To An Emerging Crisis
Chapter Two – Water and Food
1.) Water
2.) Food and Starvation
Chapter Three – Bugging Out
Introduction to Evacuation and Bug Out Bags
1.) Building The Right Bug Out Bag For You
2.) The Bug Out Plan
3.) Bug Out Guide and Checklist
4.) Light Weight Bug Out Bags
5.) Bugging Out as a Group
6.) Bugging Out Using Bikes
7.) Building a Bug Out Bag on a Budget
8.) Bug Out Bag - Example of a Setup
9.) Light Weight Bug Out Bag - Examples of Setups
10.) Bug Out Bag built on Ultra Light Equipment
11.) Bugging Out As A Group - Examples of Setups
12.) Urban Bug Out Bags
13.) Bug Out Bags for Women
14.) An Education - The Most Important Tool For a Bug Out?
Chapter Four
1.) Bug In - An Introduction
2.) The Bug In Plan
3.) Equipment List For Your Home - Checklist
4.) Surviving Fires and Fire Safety
Chapter Five
1.) Pocket Survival Kits
2.) Survival Knives
3.) Equipment and Techniques to start a Fire
4.) Scandinavian Survival Equipment
5.) Every Day Carry (EDC)
6.) Get Home Bag (GHB)
7.) Get Home Bags - Examples of Setups
Chapter Six
1.) Human Conflict, Wars and Survival
2.) Peace Building and State building missions
3.) Private Military Companies, Private Security Companies and Mercenaries
Chapter Seven – Weapons of Mass Destruction
1.) Biological Warfare and Disease
2.) Chemical Warfare
3.) Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Dangers
Chapter Eight
1.) The Collapse of Civilizations and Societies: Part One
2.) The Collapse of Civilizations and Societies: Part Two
Chapter Nine
1.) Peak Oil
2.) Things That You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
3.) The Limits To Growth
4.) Is Peak Oil Already Here?
Chapter Ten - Natural Disasters
1.) Earthquakes
2.) Volcanoes
3.) Tsunami
4.) Hurricanes
5.) Tornado
Chapter Eleven - The Psychology of Survival
1.) The Basic Mindset for Survival
Chapter Twelve - For Swedish Survivalists
1.) For Swedish Survivalists
Chapter Thirteen - Movies, Videos and Books
1.) List of Survival Related Documentaries and Videos
2.) Survival Related Blogs and WebPages
3.) Recommended Books and Your Survival Library
4.) List of Companies That Makes Survival Related Equipment
Other Articles about Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cable and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
US EIA - No Peak In World Oil Production in another 23 years
Other Articles
Another look at the Bug Out Bag
Survivalism for Dummies
Monday, November 22, 2010
Bugging Out Using Bikes
Walking by foot is a rather slow way too evacuate during an emergency. Bikes are one of the most energy efficient ways to travel by muscle power. An individual can normally travel many times the distance one could by foot per day using a bike. Another major advantage is that equipment can be loaded either directly to the bike using special bags or be drawn behind the bike on a trailer, this mean that much more equipment can be brought than would be possible if an individual would have to carry the same amount of equipment. There are many different models of bikes specialized for different tasks like being used in the city or off-road, find a bike that suits your specific needs. There are also bikes thats especially designed to carry heavy loads like the Transport from Trek. If you are on a budget it can be worth checking out the second hand market.
Bike Trailers
Bike trailers is an excellent way to bring equipment along since it let you remove the weight from your back make the ride more comfortable and better balanced. There are a number of different companies that makes trailers for bike; two of the companies are Croozer and BOB. There are also special trailers for transporting children and pets. There are also custom trailers that’s up to eight feet long and take up to 300 pounds of load from Bikes at Work, like the Model 96A.
Bags for Bikes
There are a number of companies that makes bags that are specially designed for being used on a bike. The bags can be mounted at the front wheel, at the back wheel, under the saddle or other positions. Vaude, Arkel, Lone Peak and Ortlieb are some example of companies that has a number of different models. You can also improvise and use other bags or containers; the important part is that you distribute the weight equally around the bike so that it’s as balanced as possible. BOBLBEE makes backpacks that are especially designed for using while using bikes, motor cycles and other sports.
Bike Light
A bike light is important for many reasons, it makes it easier for other too se you when you travel by night and it also allows you to see the ground ahead of you. There are many companies that makes special bike lights, but many of the lights are mostly designed to give enough light so that others can see you, don’t to give you are clear view of what’s in front of you. If you want a more powerful light you can get a high power flashlight from Fenix, Surefire, 4Sevens or other companies and use a special adapter to attach it to the handles of your bike. A headlight can also be a good addition since the light will follow your head when you look around. Having a small red light in pointed to the rear of the bike allows other to know that the see the back of work bike in darkness.
Special Equipment for Repairs and Maintenance
For longer bike tours it’s good if you have some basic tools that allow you to fix some basic problems. A flat tire is one of the typical problems you might encounter and can be quite easily fixed with a puncture repair kit and an air pump. Spare inner tubes and tires to bikes is also relatively cheap to store. For most bikes Allen Keys is needed for repairs, fixed keys with t-handles are normally the easiest to work with, but there are also more compact tools with Allen keys especially designed for bike repairs that can be useful when traveling. If you have a car a bike rack is a useful addition in order to make it easier to transport your bike.
Equipment in addition to your Bug Out Bag
[ ] Puncture Repair Kit
[ ] Pump
[ ] Spare Valve
[ ] Adjustable Wrench or Barbell Spanner
[ ] Screwdriver and Allen Keys
[ ] Helmet
[ ] Multi-Tool
[ ] Lock
Wenger has a special Swiss Army Knife, the Wenger Biker 37 that’s especially designed to be used as a tool for repairing bikes. A multi-tool can also be a useful tool for fixing common problems.
A roadmap/city map and compass can be for finding your way, there also GPS units that especially designed for using while biking like the Garmin 705 HR.
Safety
One of the easiest ways of preventing serious injury when biking is wearing a helmet. There are many different models on the market; personally I like the ones from ProTec and BELL. Other ways of minimizing the risk of injury is to keep up the maintenance; check the breaks, tires and other details regularly. Stay alert and avoid using listening to music and talking on your cell phone while travelling in traffic, this can both be a distraction and make it hard for you to hear other sounds and warnings.
Locks
One of the major problems with having a bike, especially in cities is the risk of getting the bike stolen. A good lock can minimize the risk of getting the bike stolen, but there are no lock that can’t be broken with the right tools and time. The location where you store your bike is also important, try not to store the bike in a secluded location. Solid steel U-locks are normally safer than the thinner models of locks that use wired or chains.
Every Day Life
Biking is one of the cheapest and fastest ways to get around using muscle power, it is also an excellent way to get physical exercise. With a bike trailer and good stamina it’s fully possible to travel to work and do most activities like errands to the supermarket without a car. In some cases it can even save time compared to driving a car or taking the bus. Biking also has a large economical advantage compared to driving car since it does to consume any fuel, accept the calories you burn riding the bike. The cost for buying a bike, maintenance and new tiers are also very low compared to owning a car. For many people transportation is one of the highest economical costs in their lives today and in scenarios like Peak Oil or an Oil Embargo prices for transportation can rise dramatically. Making a life style change going from car dependency towards using a bike does not only have economical advantages but also advantages for your health and fitness.
Advantages
• Much faster than traveling by foot
• More equipment can be brought compared to travel by foot.
• It can be possible to navigate through traffic jams because of the bikes smaller size compared to cars and other vehicles.
• A much cheaper solution than a car.
• Great form of exercise.
• Requires no fuel.
Disadvantages
• Extreme terrain is very hard to travel through using a heavily loaded bike; roads are the best mean off travel.
• It’s hard to bike through snow during winter conditions.
• It can be dangerous to travel at highways due to other forms of traffic.
• Normally much slower than a motor vehicle.
• The storage capacity even with a bike trailer and bags are often significantly lower than that of a car or truck.
Summary
A bike gives the possibility to travel much longer distances in a shorter duration of time compared to what’s possible by foot, this can be extremely important in scenarios when evacuation is necessary. If you use your bike on an everyday basis and increase your stamina even longer distances can be traveled. With bike bags and a backpack you can bring more equipment than you can carry by foot. With special bike trailers in combination with bike bags it’s possible to bring several hundred of pounds of equipment in extreme cases.
This opens for options that would not normally be possible compared to evacuation by foot; especially if it’s a larger group equipped with bikes and trailers. Some examples of equipment that could be brought:
• Dutch Owens and other more stationary solution for cooking
• Large tents with wood stoves, Large Tarps, Heavy Duty Wool Blankets
• Food and Fuel for extended periods of time
• Heavy Tools like Shovels, Axes and Aaws, Fishing Gear, Rope etc
It’s fully possible to get a bike rack and bring a bike with you on your normal vehicle during an evacuation scenario and have the best of two worlds, one solution does not have to exclude the other.
A bike is faster than walking but is normally not as fast as motor vehicle. But it can be an interesting alternative for someone with a low budget or can be brought along on a motor vehicle by using a bike rack.
Bike Trailers
Bike trailers is an excellent way to bring equipment along since it let you remove the weight from your back make the ride more comfortable and better balanced. There are a number of different companies that makes trailers for bike; two of the companies are Croozer and BOB. There are also special trailers for transporting children and pets. There are also custom trailers that’s up to eight feet long and take up to 300 pounds of load from Bikes at Work, like the Model 96A.
Bags for Bikes
There are a number of companies that makes bags that are specially designed for being used on a bike. The bags can be mounted at the front wheel, at the back wheel, under the saddle or other positions. Vaude, Arkel, Lone Peak and Ortlieb are some example of companies that has a number of different models. You can also improvise and use other bags or containers; the important part is that you distribute the weight equally around the bike so that it’s as balanced as possible. BOBLBEE makes backpacks that are especially designed for using while using bikes, motor cycles and other sports.
Bike Light
A bike light is important for many reasons, it makes it easier for other too se you when you travel by night and it also allows you to see the ground ahead of you. There are many companies that makes special bike lights, but many of the lights are mostly designed to give enough light so that others can see you, don’t to give you are clear view of what’s in front of you. If you want a more powerful light you can get a high power flashlight from Fenix, Surefire, 4Sevens or other companies and use a special adapter to attach it to the handles of your bike. A headlight can also be a good addition since the light will follow your head when you look around. Having a small red light in pointed to the rear of the bike allows other to know that the see the back of work bike in darkness.
Special Equipment for Repairs and Maintenance
For longer bike tours it’s good if you have some basic tools that allow you to fix some basic problems. A flat tire is one of the typical problems you might encounter and can be quite easily fixed with a puncture repair kit and an air pump. Spare inner tubes and tires to bikes is also relatively cheap to store. For most bikes Allen Keys is needed for repairs, fixed keys with t-handles are normally the easiest to work with, but there are also more compact tools with Allen keys especially designed for bike repairs that can be useful when traveling. If you have a car a bike rack is a useful addition in order to make it easier to transport your bike.
Equipment in addition to your Bug Out Bag
[ ] Puncture Repair Kit
[ ] Pump
[ ] Spare Valve
[ ] Adjustable Wrench or Barbell Spanner
[ ] Screwdriver and Allen Keys
[ ] Helmet
[ ] Multi-Tool
[ ] Lock
Wenger has a special Swiss Army Knife, the Wenger Biker 37 that’s especially designed to be used as a tool for repairing bikes. A multi-tool can also be a useful tool for fixing common problems.
A roadmap/city map and compass can be for finding your way, there also GPS units that especially designed for using while biking like the Garmin 705 HR.
Safety
One of the easiest ways of preventing serious injury when biking is wearing a helmet. There are many different models on the market; personally I like the ones from ProTec and BELL. Other ways of minimizing the risk of injury is to keep up the maintenance; check the breaks, tires and other details regularly. Stay alert and avoid using listening to music and talking on your cell phone while travelling in traffic, this can both be a distraction and make it hard for you to hear other sounds and warnings.
Locks
One of the major problems with having a bike, especially in cities is the risk of getting the bike stolen. A good lock can minimize the risk of getting the bike stolen, but there are no lock that can’t be broken with the right tools and time. The location where you store your bike is also important, try not to store the bike in a secluded location. Solid steel U-locks are normally safer than the thinner models of locks that use wired or chains.
Every Day Life
Biking is one of the cheapest and fastest ways to get around using muscle power, it is also an excellent way to get physical exercise. With a bike trailer and good stamina it’s fully possible to travel to work and do most activities like errands to the supermarket without a car. In some cases it can even save time compared to driving a car or taking the bus. Biking also has a large economical advantage compared to driving car since it does to consume any fuel, accept the calories you burn riding the bike. The cost for buying a bike, maintenance and new tiers are also very low compared to owning a car. For many people transportation is one of the highest economical costs in their lives today and in scenarios like Peak Oil or an Oil Embargo prices for transportation can rise dramatically. Making a life style change going from car dependency towards using a bike does not only have economical advantages but also advantages for your health and fitness.
Advantages
• Much faster than traveling by foot
• More equipment can be brought compared to travel by foot.
• It can be possible to navigate through traffic jams because of the bikes smaller size compared to cars and other vehicles.
• A much cheaper solution than a car.
• Great form of exercise.
• Requires no fuel.
Disadvantages
• Extreme terrain is very hard to travel through using a heavily loaded bike; roads are the best mean off travel.
• It’s hard to bike through snow during winter conditions.
• It can be dangerous to travel at highways due to other forms of traffic.
• Normally much slower than a motor vehicle.
• The storage capacity even with a bike trailer and bags are often significantly lower than that of a car or truck.
Summary
A bike gives the possibility to travel much longer distances in a shorter duration of time compared to what’s possible by foot, this can be extremely important in scenarios when evacuation is necessary. If you use your bike on an everyday basis and increase your stamina even longer distances can be traveled. With bike bags and a backpack you can bring more equipment than you can carry by foot. With special bike trailers in combination with bike bags it’s possible to bring several hundred of pounds of equipment in extreme cases.
This opens for options that would not normally be possible compared to evacuation by foot; especially if it’s a larger group equipped with bikes and trailers. Some examples of equipment that could be brought:
• Dutch Owens and other more stationary solution for cooking
• Large tents with wood stoves, Large Tarps, Heavy Duty Wool Blankets
• Food and Fuel for extended periods of time
• Heavy Tools like Shovels, Axes and Aaws, Fishing Gear, Rope etc
It’s fully possible to get a bike rack and bring a bike with you on your normal vehicle during an evacuation scenario and have the best of two worlds, one solution does not have to exclude the other.
Labels:
Bikes,
Bug Out Bag,
Checklist,
Crisis Preparedness,
Equipment,
Get Out Of Dodge,
Peak Oil,
survival,
survivalism
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