After expending the subject of evacuation and bugging out I have started the process of reorganizing the posts so that the different aspects of survival and crisis preparedness fall into different categories. This is the first step in order to make them come together into a free Online Survival Guide. I will continue to write about different subjects and make some adjustments too some of the posts that’s already available.
There are a number of new interesting products on the market like the new headlamp from Fenix, the HP-20 that has a separate battery pack using 4 AA batteries. This is a concept that exists on other headlamp as well like the Silva L1 and Petzl Ultra. Having a separate battery pack is an advantage in cold weather conditions when it can be worn in a jacket or backpack in order to minimize the reduced performance of batteries when they get cold.
Fällkniven has released two new knives in a new series of knives with wooden handles, the SK-1, SK-3 and SK-6. Both knives are rather expensive compared to other knives like the WM-1, F1, S1, H1 and A1, however they can be an interesting alternative for collectors. Fällkniven has also released a new pen knife, the compact folding knife U-4 that has a weight of only 22 grams. Other products seem to be coming like a new series of kitchen knives and a new more unexpected product. A new type of steel is also being tested. An alternative with a much more attractive price is the new knife from Mora, The Bushcraft. The Bushcraft has a blade similar to Mora 2000 only with a more ergonomic handle.
Peak Oil have gotten some attention in as well, in the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, World Energy Outlook 2010 the language has changed some. In Sweden a documentary about Peak Oil and other Issues aired tonight at a public television channel. The program can be viewed here. The documentary ”Blind Spot” is a new documentary with many leading researchers within the field of Peak Oil. Other researchers like Joseph Tainter, author of the book “The Collapse of Complex Societies” also participate.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Introduction to Evacuation and Bug Out Tactics
The Bug Out Bag (BOB) is a vital tool for many survivalists. The BOB is a tool intended to make it help an individual survive the evacuation and transport to a safer area or location. Examples of scenarios that can require evacuation are hurricanes, earthquakes, dam breaks or the meltdown of a nuclear power plant.
What a BOB should contain is a debated subject among survivalists and at forums like the Survivalist Boards. What you need is specific for your location and your context. Do you live urban or wilderness setting? What kind of climate do you live in? Is there access to clean water from rivers and lakes? Can you carry a heavy bag over long distances? These are some examples of questions that will affect what kind of equipment you will need. There is no concept or list of equipment that’s perfect for all settings.
Three Different Perspectives
1.) The First Guide for Bug Out Bags is designed for people how live in remote locations where no or little help can expected and the individual must be self reliant. This is also what I would suggest that you pack if you go on a long hiking trip.
2.) The Second Guide focuses on how you can build a low weight Bug Out Bag that can be more appropriate for people how live in warm climate or urban setting. This is also a bag that can be carried as an Every Day Carry bag.
3.) The Third Guide focuses on evacuation from a group perspective. If a group of individuals evacuate or go for a long hiking trip what equipment should they bring and what equipment can they share. This post also focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of group travel.
The first approach is a maximum approach where the individual will have a high number of items that can help to deal with an emergency, the second approach is a minimum approach intended to keep the number of items and weight as low as possible. This is only suggestions, for your specific situation it may be a good idea to either follow some of these guidelines or try to combine the minimum and maximum approach. The most important aspect is that you try your bag out in your location so that you know what works and what don’t. This is also critical so that you learn how to use your equipment; a fire steel is of little use if you don’t know how to use it, the same goes for a GPS, compass, tent or multi-fuel stove. With knowledge and skills you can learn how to make do with less equipment and survive even if you don’t have a fully equipped emergency kit.
3.) Season
Most settings have some seasonal variation when it comes to temperature, rainfall and wind. If your seasonal variations are large you might have to adjust your Bug Out Bag from season to season in order to make sure that it will perform as desired during an evacuation scenario.
4.) The Process of Building a Bug Out Bag
I would recommend that you do not view your Bug Out Bag as a fixed concept but rather as a dynamic changing concept. I also recommend that you use as much of the same gear as possible when you go on hiking, hunting, fishing or camping trips since this gives you the opportunity to test the equipment and learn how to use it. It’s also important that you adjust your bag as your situation and personal settings change.
Example of how you can view the process of Building a Bug Out Bag:
2.) Light Weight Bug Out Bags
3.) Bugging Out as a Group
4.) Bugging Out Using Bikes
5.) Building a Bug Out Bag on a Budget
6.) Bug Out Bag - Example of a Setup
7.) Light Weight Bug Out Bag - Examples of Setups
What a BOB should contain is a debated subject among survivalists and at forums like the Survivalist Boards. What you need is specific for your location and your context. Do you live urban or wilderness setting? What kind of climate do you live in? Is there access to clean water from rivers and lakes? Can you carry a heavy bag over long distances? These are some examples of questions that will affect what kind of equipment you will need. There is no concept or list of equipment that’s perfect for all settings.
Three Different Perspectives
1.) The First Guide for Bug Out Bags is designed for people how live in remote locations where no or little help can expected and the individual must be self reliant. This is also what I would suggest that you pack if you go on a long hiking trip.
2.) The Second Guide focuses on how you can build a low weight Bug Out Bag that can be more appropriate for people how live in warm climate or urban setting. This is also a bag that can be carried as an Every Day Carry bag.
3.) The Third Guide focuses on evacuation from a group perspective. If a group of individuals evacuate or go for a long hiking trip what equipment should they bring and what equipment can they share. This post also focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of group travel.
The first approach is a maximum approach where the individual will have a high number of items that can help to deal with an emergency, the second approach is a minimum approach intended to keep the number of items and weight as low as possible. This is only suggestions, for your specific situation it may be a good idea to either follow some of these guidelines or try to combine the minimum and maximum approach. The most important aspect is that you try your bag out in your location so that you know what works and what don’t. This is also critical so that you learn how to use your equipment; a fire steel is of little use if you don’t know how to use it, the same goes for a GPS, compass, tent or multi-fuel stove. With knowledge and skills you can learn how to make do with less equipment and survive even if you don’t have a fully equipped emergency kit.
1.) You and Your Bug Out Bag
The Bug Out Bag is only a tool kit that will help you to deal with emergency and survival situations; no matter what equipment you carry its you and the people around you that will utilize this tool in such a way that it allows you to survive. In other words: Don’t forget to keep the focus on your own Knowledge; your Physical Fitness and Health and your Skills and Experience. The most important factor for survival is You, not your toolkit.
2.) Some of the Factors you have to take into Consideration when building your BOB
What type of terrain, climate and setting you live will be very important for what kind of shelter, clothing and equipment that you will need. Can you find natural cover or do you have to bring your own? What kind of shelter, clothing and footwear is most appropriate for you? Can water be found easily or will you have to bring all the water that you need with you? What kind of equipment will you need to make water safe to drink?
Most settings have some seasonal variation when it comes to temperature, rainfall and wind. If your seasonal variations are large you might have to adjust your Bug Out Bag from season to season in order to make sure that it will perform as desired during an evacuation scenario.
4.) The Process of Building a Bug Out Bag
I would recommend that you do not view your Bug Out Bag as a fixed concept but rather as a dynamic changing concept. I also recommend that you use as much of the same gear as possible when you go on hiking, hunting, fishing or camping trips since this gives you the opportunity to test the equipment and learn how to use it. It’s also important that you adjust your bag as your situation and personal settings change.
Example of how you can view the process of Building a Bug Out Bag:
Chapter 3: Bug Out Bags and Evacuation
1.) Bug Out Guide and Checklist2.) Light Weight Bug Out Bags
3.) Bugging Out as a Group
4.) Bugging Out Using Bikes
5.) Building a Bug Out Bag on a Budget
6.) Bug Out Bag - Example of a Setup
7.) Light Weight Bug Out Bag - Examples of Setups
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Bugging Out as A Group
The Bug Out Bag (BOB) is a tool focused on providing an individual with the tools and equipment to Survive a shorter trip to a safe location in case of a sudden threat or disaster. The BOB can also be referred to as a Get Out Of Dodge (GOOD) bag, 72 Hour Kit, Grab Bag or I’m Never Coming Home (INCH) bag. In my view it’s far more likely that an individual would evacuate, or be bugging out together with family members and friends than doing so alone. This is the subject that this post will address: Tactics for bugging out as a larger or smaller group.
The size of groups can vary but ideally groups should have four to six members. The reason why this is an ideal number is that such a group can share the basic equipment needed: Shelter in form of for example a tent and stove for preparing food just name a few items. If a party consists of more than 6 people I would suggest that the group is split into smaller sub-groups that share tent and stoves. Carrying a fully equipped BOB is hard for a single individual; a single individual can’t carry all forms of specialized equipment. A larger group allows for more specialized tools and equipment too be brought than what a single individual can carry.
Individual Kits and the Group Kit
If an individual has to carry all the equipment need on he’s or her own the weight of the pack will be heavier compared to if a person could share the weight of items among a Group. The suggested step of individuals can also be reduced: It’s not necessary that every member carry multiple tools for starting a fire and several knives if every member has one. If an alone individual would carry a single knife or fire starter the consequences would be worse if this equipment would be lost compared to if this happened to a single individual. Multi functions shelters like the Fjellduk and Bivanorak functions both as a poncho and bivi-bag and can provide shelter for an individual if they would get separated from a Group.
During a real life emergency there is no telling what might happen, group members could be separated or unable to meet up so it is still important the individual packs can sustain the individuals. One of the most common forms of Groups is Families. If you are packing for a Family make sure that every member can carry their own bag. For children and young people how can walk by themselves prioritize that they carry their own clothing, water, sleeping bag and sleeping pads.
Individual Bug Out Bag
Clothing
[ ] Long sleeve base layer shirt (I recommend Merino Wool)
[ ] Short sleeve base layer shirt
[ ] Change of underwear
[ ] Hat or Watch cap
[ ] Gloves
[ ] Buff or Shemag
[ ] Shell Jacket (Waterproof and wind proof)
[ ] Warm Long Sleeve Shirt
[ ] Heavy Duty Pants
[ ] Poncho, Rain Clothing, Fjellduk or Bivanorak
[ ] Hiking Boots
[ ] 2 pair of Extra socks
[ ] Watch
Backpack
Choose a backpack with a steel or aluminum frame. If you’re going to carry a heavy load over some distance you’re going to need a good backpack. If the frame is internal or external is a question of what you prefer, both have advantages and disadvantages. Backpacks with external frames are generally stronger and can be used to carry other things than your bag like a wounded person or a heavy tank of water. Pack your items in waterproof bags; use different colors so that you know what’s inside the different bags. I also recommend that you get a waterproof bag or container for your cell phone. I suggest that you put certain equipment like your first aid kit in locations that are easily accessible if you would need them. Always put the same items in the same location in your bag so you don’t have to spend much time looking for your items, this also makes easier to see if something would be missing from your pack. Always carry at least one knife and your Pocket Survival Kit on your person in case you would lose your backpack.
Shelter
[ ] Sleeping Bag (Sleeping bag liners helps to extend the lifetime of your sleeping bag)
[ ] Sleeping Pad, Hammock or Hennessy Hammock.
Light
[ ] Flashlight or/and Headlamp (LED)
[ ] Extra Batteries (Lithium)
Fire
[ ] Matches in waterproof container
[ ] Lighter
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Tinder
Survival Knives
[ ] Fixed Blade Knife
[ ] Back Up Knife: Folding Knife, Multi Tool or Swiss Army Knife for example
[ ] Sharpener
Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Matches
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Snare Wire
[ ] Wire Saw
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Button Compass
[ ] Safety Pins
[ ] Whistle
[ ] Candle
[ ] Small LED lamp
[ ] Small Knife or Razor blade
[ ] Fishing kit
[ ] Pencil
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Painkillers
[ ] Anti Diarrhea Tablets
[ ] Antihistamines
[ ] Antibiotics
[ ] Condom or Alok Sak
Water
[ ] One or Two Water bottles (Nalgene, Klean Kanteen, Camelback or SIGG)
[ ] Water Bladder for your backpack; Camelback, Nalgene or similar system.
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
Food
[ ] Freeze Dried Rations or Meals Ready to Eat (MRE:s). Pack minimum 6 meals for 72 hours
[ ] Powerbars, Flapjack, Beef jerkey, Trailmix or other snacks
[ ] Tea, Coffee, Sugar and Powdered milk
[ ] Salt and Pepper
[ ] Spork (Or Knife, Fork and Spoon)
[ ] Plate and Cup
[ ] Compass
[ ] Cash or Gold/Silver
[ ] Notebook
[ ] Pen
Hygiene
[ ] Roll of toilet paper (in waterproof bag)
[ ] Soap
[ ] Toothbrush, Toothpaste and Dental Floss
[ ] Razor
[ ] Hand Disinfection
[ ] Insect Repellant
[ ] Sun Block or Skin Care Lotion
[ ] 550 Paracord
[ ] Small First Aid Kit and Blister Kit
[ ] Sunglasses
[ ] Special personal needs (extra prescription glasses, medication etc)
Equipment shared by the Group
Every individual should have a personal Bug Out Bag but some of the equipment should be divided among the members most importantly:
[ ] Tent
[ ] Tent Repair Kit and Multi Tool
[ ] Stove and spare parts. Example of Stove could be a Trangia Stove, Kelly Kettle, Esbit, Multi Fuel Stoves or Jetboil.
[ ] Cooking Vessels
[ ] P-38 Can Opener
[ ] Steel wool, Mop and Washing Up Liquid
[ ] Fuel for the stove
[ ] Water Purification Filter
[ ] Map, Waterproof container for map, GPS, Extra Batteries, Compass
[ ] Large First Aid Kit with basic medication.
Examples of other items that can be divided among members of the group are:
[ ] Compact Radio with spare batteries
[ ] Axe, Machete, Parang or Folding Saw
[ ] Binoculars
[ ] Signal Flares, Emergency Strobe, Signal Mirror, Chemical Lightsticks or Spot (Satellite GPS Messenger)
At what point should one Bug Out?
The hardest questions for a Bug Out scenario is when one should be bugging out. What kind of circumstances should trigger such a response? Here Risk Assessments can help to identify potential threats but in a real crisis situation one will always have to make decisions based upon incomplete and often contradicting information. This will also have to be done under time pressure. It’s hard to manage and understand a crisis even for government agencies with enormous resources and a large staff. Knowledge and research about potential threats can help one understand how previous events have unfolded and what consequences they have had. Researching different risks in form of Man-Made and Natural Disasters that is likely to manifest in your local area can help you make better decisions based on limited information.
It’s also important that groups create routines for establishing contact if electronic communications goes down or are interrupted. Meeting points and alternative meeting points and possible routes should also be addressed. If one group decides to evacuate, where does this group leave messages to other concerning the route taken and the people how have evacuated.
The March
A briefing before the March is important so that all members know what intended route that the party intends to travel. Where should the members rally if the group members get separated? If the group is large walkie-talkies can be a useful tool for communicating between the different members of a large group especially if it’s stretched out during a March or travelling in different vehicles.
If the party travels by foot the party should stop after 15-30 min and regulate clothing so that people don’t sweat or are getting cold. If the members sweat too much dehydration may soon become a serious problem. When the group stops take time to adjust the packs so that they are comfortable to carry. Make a habit of often checking that your vital equipment like your knife rests in its sheath. When a group makes a stop also make sure that all the members are present. Never let any individual stray away alone without the group stopping, if something must be done members should always try to stay together with another individual. The pace of the party must be governed by the weakest members in the party, if members get to tired the risk of accidents and injury increases so make sure to make a short stop once per hour or after passing through rough terrain. Checking up on the members and taking care of each other is also critical. Everything from blisters, back problems, dehydration and other problems are much easier to deal with in an early stage. It’s also important for how the social dimension of the group is working.
The party members should regularly be checking the terrain behind them; especially those how walk in the rear of the party. This is very important because it can be very hard to find the way back since the terrain looks very different going back the other way. In high risk areas it can also important to see if anyone is following the party.
The rest of the members should also keep an eye open and be aware of the surrounding environment; it can be a good idea that different members keep attention to designated directions. By being alert the party can spot dangers, find water, shelter, eatable plants and sometimes other equipment that can be useful.
Setting Up and Breaking Camp
When a Group makes camp for the night it’s important that every member of the party helps out with the different tasks that must be done. Some of the tasks that should be done are
• Raising the tent or arranging shelter.
• Collecting fire wood and get a fire going in a secure location. Whenever there is fire wood available this should be used to save fuel for the stoves.
• Prepare an evening meal.
• Collecting and purifying water.
From the time that a party wakes up in the morning until the party has eaten breakfast, cleaned up and attended hygiene, packed tents and are ready to leave normally takes 1-2 hours.
Advantages
• A Group are likely to have more areas of expertise than a single individual.
• In case that an individual get injured the others can give care or in a worst case scenario carry this individual on a stretcher.
• More specialized equipment can be brought helping the group to cope with more situations.
• The carrying load for each individual will be lower if a Group shares tents and stoves.
Disadvantages
• Moving with a large group often takes longer time.
• The Group can have members with a poor physical fitness, children and elderly or even injured people that slow the phase of the Group.
• Some members are likely to have low quality equipment/clothing or be lacking some equipment.
Another important aspect is getting to know the other members of your group. Engaging in activities like hiking is an excellent way both to test equipment, routes, clothing, increase fitness, getting experience and getting to know the other members of a possible group. What are the strength and weaknesses of the members? What skills do they possess and what skills do they lack? What skills can the different members help each other obtain? Working out differences within the group before a real crisis is also important; a real crisis will be extremely hard both physically and emotionally for a group evacuating an area. Latent conflict within the group may then become a big problem. Learning how to deal with conflict within a group is something that should be dealt with before an emergency. It’s hard to know how people will react under extreme pressure, but hiking, camping and hunting trips before a real emergency will provide some opportunities to deal with these issues before.
Bug Out Vehicles (BOV)
Vehicles can make it possible to travel over distances that would take weeks to travel in a matter of hours if the conditions are excellent. A vehicle intended to be used when bugging out is often referred to as a Bug Out Vehicle or BOV. Vehicles also allow heavier equipment to be brought along. However, during an large scale evacuation from a city or urban area roads can turn into to traffic jams that can stretch for miles where the traffic bacilli comes to stand still. This problem may be reduced in some cases by taking roads that normally aren’t trafficked but is still not a guarantee. In addition to cars and trucks other alternatives can be used depending on terrain like boats, mountain bikes, snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles or even air planes depending on your situation and budget.
Stashing
One tactic that is often discusses is the option to stash heavy equipment along possible Bug Out routes or at alternative locations like the homes of family members or friends. Some equipment can be outstanding for wilderness life and survival, however these items are often too heavy or bulky too be carried over long distances witch make caching them a possible alternative solution. There are of course risks involved in stashing equipment, it can be stolen or destroyed by weather just to name a few. If you have to evacuate by another route than the intended one you will be unable to take advantage of the equipment. If you are planning on using this tactic you must consider the pros and cons of different locations and methods.
Example of items that can be considered
[ ] Dutch Ovens
[ ] Murrikka
[ ] Larger Tents with Woodstoves
[ ] Large Tarps
[ ] Heavy Duty Wool Blankets
[ ] Large Water Containers
[ ] Tools like Axes, Shovels, Hammers, Rope, Pick axe etc
[ ] Fire wood and fuel for vehicles and stoves
Equipment vs Skill and Experience
Equipment can help individuals cope with different kinds of crisis and survival situations by providing tools that makes it easier to find solutions for different kinds of problems. Clothing and shelter provides protection from the elements; compass, map and GPS can makes navigation in un-known territories much easier; a headlamp, chemical lightstick or flashlight can provide light during nights, knives and tools like axes makes it possible to handle a number of different tasks that almost impossible to do my hand; fire steel, matches and lighter makes it much easier to start a fire and so on. However, no matter how much gear you carry your physical and mental endurance, skills, knowing your local area, the will to survive, knowledge and most of all the persons next you will most likely be the crucial factors that determine if you survive or not.
So is this the Ultimate Guide?
In this post you have gotten some suggestions for you can put together a setup for a Group during an evacuation or for a regular hike or camping trip. This Guide is intended to provide some basic ideas and Suggestion for possible setups. However – This is not a Guide that is perfect for every climate and setting.
Every situation, climate and setting is unique and requires specific skills and equipment to be dealt with. There is no One Size fits all when it comes to Bug Out Bags. There is a huge difference if you are putting together a kit for a desert climate, jungle, winter, arctic, wilderness or urban setting. In most regions there are people how spend time outside as wilderness guides, military, hunter, hikers and many more. Find a local expert and take advice from the people how know your local situation best – the people how live and spend time there.
Also see
Bug Out Bag and Checklist
Bug Out Bag - Example of Setups
Light Weight Bug Out Bag
Get Home Bag (GHB)
The size of groups can vary but ideally groups should have four to six members. The reason why this is an ideal number is that such a group can share the basic equipment needed: Shelter in form of for example a tent and stove for preparing food just name a few items. If a party consists of more than 6 people I would suggest that the group is split into smaller sub-groups that share tent and stoves. Carrying a fully equipped BOB is hard for a single individual; a single individual can’t carry all forms of specialized equipment. A larger group allows for more specialized tools and equipment too be brought than what a single individual can carry.
Individual Kits and the Group Kit
If an individual has to carry all the equipment need on he’s or her own the weight of the pack will be heavier compared to if a person could share the weight of items among a Group. The suggested step of individuals can also be reduced: It’s not necessary that every member carry multiple tools for starting a fire and several knives if every member has one. If an alone individual would carry a single knife or fire starter the consequences would be worse if this equipment would be lost compared to if this happened to a single individual. Multi functions shelters like the Fjellduk and Bivanorak functions both as a poncho and bivi-bag and can provide shelter for an individual if they would get separated from a Group.
During a real life emergency there is no telling what might happen, group members could be separated or unable to meet up so it is still important the individual packs can sustain the individuals. One of the most common forms of Groups is Families. If you are packing for a Family make sure that every member can carry their own bag. For children and young people how can walk by themselves prioritize that they carry their own clothing, water, sleeping bag and sleeping pads.
Individual Bug Out Bag
Clothing
[ ] Long sleeve base layer shirt (I recommend Merino Wool)
[ ] Short sleeve base layer shirt
[ ] Change of underwear
[ ] Hat or Watch cap
[ ] Gloves
[ ] Buff or Shemag
[ ] Shell Jacket (Waterproof and wind proof)
[ ] Warm Long Sleeve Shirt
[ ] Heavy Duty Pants
[ ] Poncho, Rain Clothing, Fjellduk or Bivanorak
[ ] Hiking Boots
[ ] 2 pair of Extra socks
[ ] Watch
Backpack
Choose a backpack with a steel or aluminum frame. If you’re going to carry a heavy load over some distance you’re going to need a good backpack. If the frame is internal or external is a question of what you prefer, both have advantages and disadvantages. Backpacks with external frames are generally stronger and can be used to carry other things than your bag like a wounded person or a heavy tank of water. Pack your items in waterproof bags; use different colors so that you know what’s inside the different bags. I also recommend that you get a waterproof bag or container for your cell phone. I suggest that you put certain equipment like your first aid kit in locations that are easily accessible if you would need them. Always put the same items in the same location in your bag so you don’t have to spend much time looking for your items, this also makes easier to see if something would be missing from your pack. Always carry at least one knife and your Pocket Survival Kit on your person in case you would lose your backpack.
Shelter
[ ] Sleeping Bag (Sleeping bag liners helps to extend the lifetime of your sleeping bag)
[ ] Sleeping Pad, Hammock or Hennessy Hammock.
Light
[ ] Flashlight or/and Headlamp (LED)
[ ] Extra Batteries (Lithium)
Fire
[ ] Matches in waterproof container
[ ] Lighter
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Tinder
Survival Knives
[ ] Fixed Blade Knife
[ ] Back Up Knife: Folding Knife, Multi Tool or Swiss Army Knife for example
[ ] Sharpener
Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Matches
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Snare Wire
[ ] Wire Saw
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Button Compass
[ ] Safety Pins
[ ] Whistle
[ ] Candle
[ ] Small LED lamp
[ ] Small Knife or Razor blade
[ ] Fishing kit
[ ] Pencil
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Painkillers
[ ] Anti Diarrhea Tablets
[ ] Antihistamines
[ ] Antibiotics
[ ] Condom or Alok Sak
Water
[ ] One or Two Water bottles (Nalgene, Klean Kanteen, Camelback or SIGG)
[ ] Water Bladder for your backpack; Camelback, Nalgene or similar system.
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
Food
[ ] Freeze Dried Rations or Meals Ready to Eat (MRE:s). Pack minimum 6 meals for 72 hours
[ ] Powerbars, Flapjack, Beef jerkey, Trailmix or other snacks
[ ] Tea, Coffee, Sugar and Powdered milk
[ ] Salt and Pepper
[ ] Spork (Or Knife, Fork and Spoon)
[ ] Plate and Cup
[ ] Compass
[ ] Cash or Gold/Silver
[ ] Notebook
[ ] Pen
Hygiene
[ ] Roll of toilet paper (in waterproof bag)
[ ] Soap
[ ] Toothbrush, Toothpaste and Dental Floss
[ ] Razor
[ ] Hand Disinfection
[ ] Insect Repellant
[ ] Sun Block or Skin Care Lotion
[ ] 550 Paracord
[ ] Small First Aid Kit and Blister Kit
[ ] Sunglasses
[ ] Special personal needs (extra prescription glasses, medication etc)
Equipment shared by the Group
Every individual should have a personal Bug Out Bag but some of the equipment should be divided among the members most importantly:
[ ] Tent
[ ] Tent Repair Kit and Multi Tool
[ ] Stove and spare parts. Example of Stove could be a Trangia Stove, Kelly Kettle, Esbit, Multi Fuel Stoves or Jetboil.
[ ] Cooking Vessels
[ ] P-38 Can Opener
[ ] Steel wool, Mop and Washing Up Liquid
[ ] Fuel for the stove
[ ] Water Purification Filter
[ ] Map, Waterproof container for map, GPS, Extra Batteries, Compass
[ ] Large First Aid Kit with basic medication.
Examples of other items that can be divided among members of the group are:
[ ] Compact Radio with spare batteries
[ ] Axe, Machete, Parang or Folding Saw
[ ] Binoculars
[ ] Signal Flares, Emergency Strobe, Signal Mirror, Chemical Lightsticks or Spot (Satellite GPS Messenger)
At what point should one Bug Out?
The hardest questions for a Bug Out scenario is when one should be bugging out. What kind of circumstances should trigger such a response? Here Risk Assessments can help to identify potential threats but in a real crisis situation one will always have to make decisions based upon incomplete and often contradicting information. This will also have to be done under time pressure. It’s hard to manage and understand a crisis even for government agencies with enormous resources and a large staff. Knowledge and research about potential threats can help one understand how previous events have unfolded and what consequences they have had. Researching different risks in form of Man-Made and Natural Disasters that is likely to manifest in your local area can help you make better decisions based on limited information.
It’s also important that groups create routines for establishing contact if electronic communications goes down or are interrupted. Meeting points and alternative meeting points and possible routes should also be addressed. If one group decides to evacuate, where does this group leave messages to other concerning the route taken and the people how have evacuated.
The March
A briefing before the March is important so that all members know what intended route that the party intends to travel. Where should the members rally if the group members get separated? If the group is large walkie-talkies can be a useful tool for communicating between the different members of a large group especially if it’s stretched out during a March or travelling in different vehicles.
If the party travels by foot the party should stop after 15-30 min and regulate clothing so that people don’t sweat or are getting cold. If the members sweat too much dehydration may soon become a serious problem. When the group stops take time to adjust the packs so that they are comfortable to carry. Make a habit of often checking that your vital equipment like your knife rests in its sheath. When a group makes a stop also make sure that all the members are present. Never let any individual stray away alone without the group stopping, if something must be done members should always try to stay together with another individual. The pace of the party must be governed by the weakest members in the party, if members get to tired the risk of accidents and injury increases so make sure to make a short stop once per hour or after passing through rough terrain. Checking up on the members and taking care of each other is also critical. Everything from blisters, back problems, dehydration and other problems are much easier to deal with in an early stage. It’s also important for how the social dimension of the group is working.
The party members should regularly be checking the terrain behind them; especially those how walk in the rear of the party. This is very important because it can be very hard to find the way back since the terrain looks very different going back the other way. In high risk areas it can also important to see if anyone is following the party.
The rest of the members should also keep an eye open and be aware of the surrounding environment; it can be a good idea that different members keep attention to designated directions. By being alert the party can spot dangers, find water, shelter, eatable plants and sometimes other equipment that can be useful.
Setting Up and Breaking Camp
When a Group makes camp for the night it’s important that every member of the party helps out with the different tasks that must be done. Some of the tasks that should be done are
• Raising the tent or arranging shelter.
• Collecting fire wood and get a fire going in a secure location. Whenever there is fire wood available this should be used to save fuel for the stoves.
• Prepare an evening meal.
• Collecting and purifying water.
From the time that a party wakes up in the morning until the party has eaten breakfast, cleaned up and attended hygiene, packed tents and are ready to leave normally takes 1-2 hours.
Advantages
• A Group are likely to have more areas of expertise than a single individual.
• In case that an individual get injured the others can give care or in a worst case scenario carry this individual on a stretcher.
• More specialized equipment can be brought helping the group to cope with more situations.
• The carrying load for each individual will be lower if a Group shares tents and stoves.
Disadvantages
• Moving with a large group often takes longer time.
• The Group can have members with a poor physical fitness, children and elderly or even injured people that slow the phase of the Group.
• Some members are likely to have low quality equipment/clothing or be lacking some equipment.
Another important aspect is getting to know the other members of your group. Engaging in activities like hiking is an excellent way both to test equipment, routes, clothing, increase fitness, getting experience and getting to know the other members of a possible group. What are the strength and weaknesses of the members? What skills do they possess and what skills do they lack? What skills can the different members help each other obtain? Working out differences within the group before a real crisis is also important; a real crisis will be extremely hard both physically and emotionally for a group evacuating an area. Latent conflict within the group may then become a big problem. Learning how to deal with conflict within a group is something that should be dealt with before an emergency. It’s hard to know how people will react under extreme pressure, but hiking, camping and hunting trips before a real emergency will provide some opportunities to deal with these issues before.
Bug Out Vehicles (BOV)
Vehicles can make it possible to travel over distances that would take weeks to travel in a matter of hours if the conditions are excellent. A vehicle intended to be used when bugging out is often referred to as a Bug Out Vehicle or BOV. Vehicles also allow heavier equipment to be brought along. However, during an large scale evacuation from a city or urban area roads can turn into to traffic jams that can stretch for miles where the traffic bacilli comes to stand still. This problem may be reduced in some cases by taking roads that normally aren’t trafficked but is still not a guarantee. In addition to cars and trucks other alternatives can be used depending on terrain like boats, mountain bikes, snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles or even air planes depending on your situation and budget.
Stashing
One tactic that is often discusses is the option to stash heavy equipment along possible Bug Out routes or at alternative locations like the homes of family members or friends. Some equipment can be outstanding for wilderness life and survival, however these items are often too heavy or bulky too be carried over long distances witch make caching them a possible alternative solution. There are of course risks involved in stashing equipment, it can be stolen or destroyed by weather just to name a few. If you have to evacuate by another route than the intended one you will be unable to take advantage of the equipment. If you are planning on using this tactic you must consider the pros and cons of different locations and methods.
Example of items that can be considered
[ ] Dutch Ovens
[ ] Murrikka
[ ] Larger Tents with Woodstoves
[ ] Large Tarps
[ ] Heavy Duty Wool Blankets
[ ] Large Water Containers
[ ] Tools like Axes, Shovels, Hammers, Rope, Pick axe etc
[ ] Fire wood and fuel for vehicles and stoves
Equipment vs Skill and Experience
Equipment can help individuals cope with different kinds of crisis and survival situations by providing tools that makes it easier to find solutions for different kinds of problems. Clothing and shelter provides protection from the elements; compass, map and GPS can makes navigation in un-known territories much easier; a headlamp, chemical lightstick or flashlight can provide light during nights, knives and tools like axes makes it possible to handle a number of different tasks that almost impossible to do my hand; fire steel, matches and lighter makes it much easier to start a fire and so on. However, no matter how much gear you carry your physical and mental endurance, skills, knowing your local area, the will to survive, knowledge and most of all the persons next you will most likely be the crucial factors that determine if you survive or not.
So is this the Ultimate Guide?
In this post you have gotten some suggestions for you can put together a setup for a Group during an evacuation or for a regular hike or camping trip. This Guide is intended to provide some basic ideas and Suggestion for possible setups. However – This is not a Guide that is perfect for every climate and setting.
Every situation, climate and setting is unique and requires specific skills and equipment to be dealt with. There is no One Size fits all when it comes to Bug Out Bags. There is a huge difference if you are putting together a kit for a desert climate, jungle, winter, arctic, wilderness or urban setting. In most regions there are people how spend time outside as wilderness guides, military, hunter, hikers and many more. Find a local expert and take advice from the people how know your local situation best – the people how live and spend time there.
Also see
Bug Out Bag and Checklist
Bug Out Bag - Example of Setups
Light Weight Bug Out Bag
Get Home Bag (GHB)
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Light Weight Bug Out Bag
In a previous post I have written about the concept of Bugging Out and Evacuation in Emergency or Survival situations. This post addresses an alternative approach to this concept with a focus on lowering the weight of the emergency kit.
The Bag
The backpack for a low weight Bug Out Bag (LW-BOB) does not have to be as sturdy as a bag that has to hold much more equipment and a heavier weight. The most important aspect is that it has a comfortable carrying system that makes the bag fit close to your body; ideally you should be able to run medium distances with the bag. Interesting bags can found from a number of different companies like Maxpedition, Kifaru, Snugpack, Osprey, Lundhags, Fjällräven, Arcteryx, Bergans, Berghaus and Klättermusen.
Water
Water is one of most crucial aspects in a survival situation and have to be carried, especially if you have to make a great physical effort and make a long distance over a few days possibly by foot. High quality water bottles like the ones from Nalgene, Camelback, Klean Kanteen or SIGG have a very low probability to break but in most cases ordinary soda bottles can serve the same purpose. A water bladder like the ones made by CamelBak or Nalgene has the advantage that you can drink easily without having to remove the pack and making a stop. A minimum of two liters of water should be a carried, but depending on the intended route and climate you may too carry more. Where can water be found and is it safe to drink without purification?
Shelter
Shelter is an important aspect in order to prevent hypothermia and exposure. In order to keep the weight down I suggest either a bivi-bag or a bivanorak as an emergency shelter in a LW-BOB. The Bivanorak and Fjellduk also have the advantage that they can be used both as an poncho and as a Bivi-Bag. If you want to travel light your clothing becomes very important since you don’t carry a sleeping bag, sleeping mattress and tent which makes it possible to improvise shelter in basically any weather condition. Good socks, Shoes that can cope with your local terrain, a Base Layer Shirt that dries easily like merino wool and a wind and rain proof Shell Jacket can compensate too some extent for this lack in equipment.
Survival Knife and Pocket Survival Kit
Some kind of Survival Knife is critical and should also be carried. What type depends on your setting but I would recommend either a Folding Knife, Swiss Army Knife or a Light Weight Fixed Blade Knife. A Pocket Survival Kit contains some additional items that can help you cope with emergencies without taking up much weight or space in a pack.
Navigation
For navigation a Citymap or Topographical Map can be an important addition depending on how well you know your local terrain. Keeping a small compass on your watch band or choosing a watch with electronic compass like the Suunto Core means that you always have a compass available. A light weight head lamp like the Fenix HP-20, HL-20, Petzl E+Lite, ZebraLight anglelights / headlamps can make night time movement much easier.
Food
A normal person can survive for quite a long time without food so making it a few days isn’t a real problem, however if you don’t eat anything for a few days your energy level and stamina will be seriously reduced and you will become more vulnerable to hypothermia. Carrying a some energy bars and one freeze dried rations per day can help you keep your energy level up and still keep the weight of your pack low.
Other Equipment
Exactly what you should pack is a personal choice but some additional equipment could also be useful like a compact First Aid Kit, Paracord, Spare batteries, a Big Lighter, some Tinder, a Notebook, Pen, some Cash, a roll of coins and a compact Cooking Vessel. Find a solution that fits your specific conditions and needs.Advantages
• A lighter pack makes it easier to walk or run long distances since you will be carrying much less weight than if you carry a fully equipped Bug Out Bag.
• The cost for getting the equipment will also be lower since you won’t have to buy the same amount of equipment.
• Can be carried as an Every Day Carry bag
Disadvantages
• A Light Weight Bug Out Bag miss allot of the items that can be needed in a survival situation. Especially in cold weather conditions exposure can kill fast so not having a sleeping bag, sleeping mattress and extra clothing can prove fatal.
• Less equipment also means fewer options.
• A highly skilled individual can compensate for the lack of equipment with the ability to construct shelter, find eatable plants, catch fish and other tactics.
Summary
A light weight Bug Out Bag can function either as an alternative or a complement to Comprehensive Bug Out Bag especially in conditions where severe weather and temperatures is a small problem. Since it’s composed of very few items it can be carried as an Every Day Carry Bag. Many larger back-packs have a smaller Day-Pack so it’s fully possible to have a larger back-pack containing the other items in a fully equipped Bug Out Bag and carry the items for Light Weight Bug Out Bag in the Day Pack making it possible to leave the heavier equipment if it would prove necessary.
Checklist
Bag
[ ] Backpack, Gearslinger, Shoulderbag, Waist Bag or Other form of Bag
Water
[ ] Two Water Bottles or Water Bladder for your backpack
[ ] Water Purification Tablets or compact Water Purification Filter
Shelter
[ ] Bivanorak, Fjellduk, Lightweight Tarp or Lightweight Poncho
Survival Knife
[ ] Fixed Blade Knife, Swiss Army Knife, Folding Knife or Multi Tool
Equipment to build a Fire
[ ] BIC Lighter, Storm Lighter, Fire Steel or Matches in a plastic bag
Light
[ ] Compact Headlamp or Flashlight
Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Matches
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Snare Wire
[ ] Wire Saw
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Button Compass
[ ] Safety Pins
[ ] Whistle
[ ] Candle
[ ] Small LED Lamp
[ ] Compact Knife or Razor Blade
[ ] Fishing Kit
[ ] Pencil
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Painkillers
[ ] Anti Diarrhea Tablets
[ ] Antihistamines
[ ] Antibiotics
[ ] Condom or Alok Sak
Possible Extra Equipment
[ ] Paracord
[ ] First Aid Kit and Blister Kit
[ ] Ducttape
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Notebook and Pen
[ ] Spare Batteries
[ ] Passport or ID, Immunization Record Card and some Cash
[ ] Paper Tissues; can be used as Tinder or as Emergency Toilet Paper.
[ ] SPOT, Emergency Strobe, Signal Mirror, Emergency Flares or Chemical Light Sticks
[ ] Extra Battery for your Cellphone or Cellphone Charger
Other Articles:
Light Weight Bug Out Bags - Examples of Setups
Building The Right Bug Out Bag For You
Bug Out Guide and Checklist
Get Home Bag (GHB)
Pocket Survival Kits
Every Day Carry (EDC)
The Bag
The backpack for a low weight Bug Out Bag (LW-BOB) does not have to be as sturdy as a bag that has to hold much more equipment and a heavier weight. The most important aspect is that it has a comfortable carrying system that makes the bag fit close to your body; ideally you should be able to run medium distances with the bag. Interesting bags can found from a number of different companies like Maxpedition, Kifaru, Snugpack, Osprey, Lundhags, Fjällräven, Arcteryx, Bergans, Berghaus and Klättermusen.
Water
Water is one of most crucial aspects in a survival situation and have to be carried, especially if you have to make a great physical effort and make a long distance over a few days possibly by foot. High quality water bottles like the ones from Nalgene, Camelback, Klean Kanteen or SIGG have a very low probability to break but in most cases ordinary soda bottles can serve the same purpose. A water bladder like the ones made by CamelBak or Nalgene has the advantage that you can drink easily without having to remove the pack and making a stop. A minimum of two liters of water should be a carried, but depending on the intended route and climate you may too carry more. Where can water be found and is it safe to drink without purification?
Shelter
Shelter is an important aspect in order to prevent hypothermia and exposure. In order to keep the weight down I suggest either a bivi-bag or a bivanorak as an emergency shelter in a LW-BOB. The Bivanorak and Fjellduk also have the advantage that they can be used both as an poncho and as a Bivi-Bag. If you want to travel light your clothing becomes very important since you don’t carry a sleeping bag, sleeping mattress and tent which makes it possible to improvise shelter in basically any weather condition. Good socks, Shoes that can cope with your local terrain, a Base Layer Shirt that dries easily like merino wool and a wind and rain proof Shell Jacket can compensate too some extent for this lack in equipment.
Survival Knife and Pocket Survival Kit
Some kind of Survival Knife is critical and should also be carried. What type depends on your setting but I would recommend either a Folding Knife, Swiss Army Knife or a Light Weight Fixed Blade Knife. A Pocket Survival Kit contains some additional items that can help you cope with emergencies without taking up much weight or space in a pack.
Navigation
For navigation a Citymap or Topographical Map can be an important addition depending on how well you know your local terrain. Keeping a small compass on your watch band or choosing a watch with electronic compass like the Suunto Core means that you always have a compass available. A light weight head lamp like the Fenix HP-20, HL-20, Petzl E+Lite, ZebraLight anglelights / headlamps can make night time movement much easier.
Food
A normal person can survive for quite a long time without food so making it a few days isn’t a real problem, however if you don’t eat anything for a few days your energy level and stamina will be seriously reduced and you will become more vulnerable to hypothermia. Carrying a some energy bars and one freeze dried rations per day can help you keep your energy level up and still keep the weight of your pack low.
Other Equipment
Exactly what you should pack is a personal choice but some additional equipment could also be useful like a compact First Aid Kit, Paracord, Spare batteries, a Big Lighter, some Tinder, a Notebook, Pen, some Cash, a roll of coins and a compact Cooking Vessel. Find a solution that fits your specific conditions and needs.
• A lighter pack makes it easier to walk or run long distances since you will be carrying much less weight than if you carry a fully equipped Bug Out Bag.
• The cost for getting the equipment will also be lower since you won’t have to buy the same amount of equipment.
• Can be carried as an Every Day Carry bag
Disadvantages
• A Light Weight Bug Out Bag miss allot of the items that can be needed in a survival situation. Especially in cold weather conditions exposure can kill fast so not having a sleeping bag, sleeping mattress and extra clothing can prove fatal.
• Less equipment also means fewer options.
• A highly skilled individual can compensate for the lack of equipment with the ability to construct shelter, find eatable plants, catch fish and other tactics.
Summary
A light weight Bug Out Bag can function either as an alternative or a complement to Comprehensive Bug Out Bag especially in conditions where severe weather and temperatures is a small problem. Since it’s composed of very few items it can be carried as an Every Day Carry Bag. Many larger back-packs have a smaller Day-Pack so it’s fully possible to have a larger back-pack containing the other items in a fully equipped Bug Out Bag and carry the items for Light Weight Bug Out Bag in the Day Pack making it possible to leave the heavier equipment if it would prove necessary.
Checklist
Bag
[ ] Backpack, Gearslinger, Shoulderbag, Waist Bag or Other form of Bag
Water
[ ] Two Water Bottles or Water Bladder for your backpack
[ ] Water Purification Tablets or compact Water Purification Filter
Shelter
[ ] Bivanorak, Fjellduk, Lightweight Tarp or Lightweight Poncho
Survival Knife
[ ] Fixed Blade Knife, Swiss Army Knife, Folding Knife or Multi Tool
Equipment to build a Fire
[ ] BIC Lighter, Storm Lighter, Fire Steel or Matches in a plastic bag
Light
[ ] Compact Headlamp or Flashlight
Pocket Survival Kit
[ ] Matches
[ ] Fire Steel
[ ] Snare Wire
[ ] Wire Saw
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Button Compass
[ ] Safety Pins
[ ] Whistle
[ ] Candle
[ ] Small LED Lamp
[ ] Compact Knife or Razor Blade
[ ] Fishing Kit
[ ] Pencil
[ ] Water Purification Tablets
[ ] Painkillers
[ ] Anti Diarrhea Tablets
[ ] Antihistamines
[ ] Antibiotics
[ ] Condom or Alok Sak
Possible Extra Equipment
[ ] Paracord
[ ] First Aid Kit and Blister Kit
[ ] Ducttape
[ ] Sewing Kit
[ ] Notebook and Pen
[ ] Spare Batteries
[ ] Passport or ID, Immunization Record Card and some Cash
[ ] Paper Tissues; can be used as Tinder or as Emergency Toilet Paper.
[ ] SPOT, Emergency Strobe, Signal Mirror, Emergency Flares or Chemical Light Sticks
[ ] Extra Battery for your Cellphone or Cellphone Charger
Other Articles:
Light Weight Bug Out Bags - Examples of Setups
Building The Right Bug Out Bag For You
Bug Out Guide and Checklist
Get Home Bag (GHB)
Pocket Survival Kits
Every Day Carry (EDC)
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Peak Oil
The current disaster in the Mexican Golf after the explosion that sunk the Oil platform Deepwater Horizon much attention has been focused on the security of deepwater offshore drilling. One subject that isn’t discussed that often is the access to oil and if the access to oil will become more scares.
The Term Peak Oil
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist born in 1903 that would later create the term “Peak Oil”. Hubbert got he’s degrees from the University of Chicago and would later work for Shell and USGS. He also worked as teacher at a number of different universities like MIT. In 1956 Hubbert presented the theory that US Oil Production would peak between 1966-1972 and start to decrease after this. Hubbert came to this theory by studying individual fields and how the production curved changed over time and adding them together. Hubbert’s estimates for the American oil production would later be proved right even if very few believed him when he first made he’s predictions.
Will There Be a Global Peak and When Will it Happen?
Many individual countries have reached their peak in oil production (peak oil) and are now in decline. Other countries than the US is Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Venezuela, Great Britain and around 40 more countries. The question many researchers ask is when the total world production will reach a peak and when the decline in World Oil Production will start. Estimates vary heavily, some researchers believe that the peak may have already been reached in 2005, others that it may happen during 2010, USGS estimates in a report from 2001 that it may take another 30 years and some Saudi experts believe that it may be 100 years before it happens.
Why is Oil so Important?
Oil originates from a period several million years ago and is basically vegetation of different sorts that have been compressed in the earth under very high pressure and temperatures. Other forms of fuels also resulted from this process like coal and natural gas. Fossil fuels are in other words solar energy that have been stored as a result of photosynthesis in combination with geological process a very long time ago. These resources are renewable, but the process takes millions of years so they are not renewable from a current human perspective. This makes the use of oil extremely energy efficient, the amount of energy one can get from taking advantage of these resources is extremely great. Oil is also easy to store and transport, it contains very much energy in relation to its weight.
Timeline
1910 A pressurized oil well in Lakeview Gusher, California starts leaking and would leak over 9 million barrels of oil over the next 18 months.
1944 During The Second World War Nazi Germany used coal to create oil in order to power their tanks and airplanes after their access to oil was reduced.
1970 The oil production in the United States peaks
1973 Saudi Arabia under its leader King Faisal imposes an Oil Embargo against the US and the Netherlands, the amount of oil that was withheld was relatively small but the consequences were big. The event caused the oil price the increase fourfold to just under 12 dollars and the price continued to rise even after the embargo was lifted. Canada Oil production also peaks in this year.
1974 Iran’s oil production peaks
1978 The Iranian Revolution takes place, after the revolution the oil production in Iran drops to around a third of its previous production and the oil prices increase rapidly.
1979 Nigeria’s oil production peaks
1979 A blowout in the Mexican oil well Ixtoc I cause around 3 million barrels of oil to leak into the Gulf of Mexico.
1982 OPEC countries stop reporting oil production on field to field basis. This is one of the major causes of insecurity since it’s very hard to estimate and predict the continued development without any data to see patterns in production for different oil fields.
1989 The oil tanker Exxon Valdez running aground outside of Alaska, spilling over 250.000 barrels of oil into the ocean.
1991 Iraq invades Kuwait War, during the response “Operation Desert Storm” Iraqi troops set fire to oil fields and tankers, many estimates of the size of the oil spill is over 10 million barrels.
1998 The oil production in Venezuela peaks
1999 The oil production in Great Britain and Qatar peaks
2000 The Oil production in Norway, Mexico and Colombia peaks
2002 Oil Production in India peaks
2005 Hurricane Katrina damage several offshore platforms.
2010 The Oil Rig “Deepwater Horizon” explodes after an accident in the Mexican Gulf. Several people died in the initial explosion and a large leak has occurred. How big the leak has been has been an debated issue, estimated has varied that 5.000 to over 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day could be leaking. Efforts have been initiated to stop and reduce the effects of the oil spill and the action from both the Obama administration and British Petroleum (BP) has been questioned.
The Saudi Perspective
Matthew Simmons, an energy investor banker has done some research on how the Oil production in Saudi Arabia have changed over time in he’s book “Twilight in the Desert”. Simmons starts at the beginning of Saudi Oil era and also goes into to detail about how political changes have taken place in country. Almost all of the major Saudi Oil fields were found in an early stage and the major Saudi Oil fields account for almost all of the Saudi Oil Production. Especially the Oil Field Ghawar has a special importance. Ghawar is the largest Oil field ever discovered and has been the sole producer for more than half of the Saudi Oil production. No other field has even come close the size and production of this field that produced over 5,5 million barrels per day at most. The second largest Oil field in the world, the Saudi offshore field Safaniya has only reached a capacity of just over 1,5 million barrels per day at most. Simmons also discuss the Saudi Oil production in relation to the American oil production that peaked in the 1970:s. In the beginning the Saudi Oil Production was ruled by the company the later was put under government control. The problem in Saudi Arabia also has other aspects; the country has enormously high birthrates, over 6 children per women in combination with a high standard of living and low child mortality rate, a combination that has resulted in a very big population increase. Water is also a big problem in Saudi Arabia; much of the water is sea-water and must be made into fresh water, a process that requires enormous amounts of energy retrieved from oil. Saudi Arabia has have a critical role in the world when an extra need for oil has taken place Saudi Arabia has produced the extra oil by putting hard pressure on their Oil Fields like during the Iranian revolution that resulted in an extremely low oil production for a few years and during the build up for Operation Desert Storm.
Simmons also shows the production rate for other giant fields outside of Saudi Arabia, and how the production rate has changed after they peaked, and suggest that it’s only natural for the Oil fields in Saudi to follow a similar pattern after they peak in production. One crucial aspect here is that almost all production in Saudi comes from a few fields and despite of intensive search for more Oil fields, non fields of similar size has been found and instead an enormous amount of time and energy has been used to increase the production in the oil fields. There is a big discussion between economist and geologist about how much oil there is in the world. Some geologist say that there is only a certain amount of oil available and money cant changed that while some economist say that when the oil price rises so does the amount of oil that available since the higher price makes it profitable to extract from locations where it was previously to expensive. Here Simmons states that technology and money invested had increased the amount of oil that Saudi has produced and continued to produce, experts from every field in combination with new technology like horizontal drilling and computer models have made an enormous difference when it comes to the amount of oil that can be retrieved from different fields. In other words Simmons combines the insights from both economists and geologists.
Movies
There have been a number of different movies made about Peak Oil and the possible consequences of this. “The end of Suburbia” was one of the first movies on this theme and it gathered a large number of different experts in the movie. “A Crude Awaking” and "Crude Impact" are two another movies that also present the same perspective.”Home” is a recent movie that focuses on both energy and environmental issues, its filmed from a aerial perspective and discusses different aspects of human development and the focuses on the need for sustainable development, this is a movie that can be seen for free online and I recommend everyone to see it. Both for the message but also because it’s proberly the best movie that has been produces on the subject. “Blind Spot” is a movie about Peak Oil with many of the leading researchers within the field that also incorporate some other researchers like Joseph Tainter; author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. Tainter explains he’s basic theory about diminishing marginal return and how this issue can be related to Peak Oil. Another movie that been produced on the same subject is the movie “Collapse” with Michael Ruppert based on Rupperts book “Confronting Collapse”. Ruppert has also written the newsletter and blog “From the Wilderness” and the book “Crossing the Rubicon”. Ruppert also incorporates financial aspects and conspiracy theories into the same theme and he’s perspective is even more negative than many of the other researchers in the same field. Ruppert has also recently launched the site “Collapse Network” where he offers advice for how to survive the coming collapse.
Researchers
There are many researchers that have written about Peak Oil. Matthew Simmons book “Twilight in the Desert” have already been mentioned as well as Michael Rupperts “Confronting Collapse” and “Crossing the Rubicon”. Examples of other researchers are Jeff Rubins “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller", Richard Heinbergs “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” and “Peak Everything”, Dale Allan Pfeiffer “Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture” and Kenneth S. Deffeyes “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak”.
There are also organizations committed to studying this phenomena like "The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas” also known as ASPO. ASPO have national organizations in many countries that you find on ASPO:s homepage. Some off the most famous researchers on ASPO is Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campell.
Alternatives
Many writers in the Peak Oil movement has also made research into the alternatives to fossil fuels like nuclear power, using coal to create liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen powered vehicles, fusion power and renewable sources of energy like water, wind, solar, bio fuels and geothermic energy.
Many critics put focus on modern agriculture and the need for both fertilizers and pest ices in order to create bio fuels and claim that in many cases bio fuels actually uses more energy from fossil fuels to make them today than the amount of energy that they make available.
Survival and Preparedness
Will there be a peak in the Oil Production? If this is the case, when will it happen and what will the consequences be? These are all very hard questions to answer. Different researchers make different assessments and the lack of data available makes it hard to make predictions and see clear trends. Personally I make the assessment that there will be a peak in global oil production sooner or later, if it haven’t already taken place. When this will happen and how fast the decline rate will be after the peak is very important. If the decline rate is very slow it will take many years before the lack of oil becomes apparent. Another very important factor is that one will only be able to know that that peak has taken place in retrospective, after it has actually happened. If the decline rate will be fast the problems will manifest sooner than if the decline rate is low. The slower the decline rate the more time there will be for finding alternative solutions and adjusting to a world with less oil available. How we will deal with this situation is the most critical aspect in my opinion. Peak Oil does not have to mean the end of the world, but it can create large problems if the decline rate will be very high and if we don’t find solutions for the problems that can be presented in form of transportation, agriculture and food production.
So how does one prepare for such an event? To start with no one really knows what the consequences will be. The basics needs for survival; shelter, water, fire, food and security etc will still be the same as today.
If you want to prepare for a scenario like this I suggest that you try to reducing your dependency on oil and energy. Do not use your car more than you have to if you have to and try to find a vehicle that don’t consume to much fuel per mile. If the cost per gallon/liter goes up it will be cheaper to drive a car if it doesn’t have an extremely high fuel consumption. Your location is also important, can you get to work by using your bike, take the bus or train? Taking the bike or walking does not only reduce costs, it also improves your fitness. Food may become more expensive if oil prices rise. In order to prepare for this I suggest that you try to have food storage and that you grow some of your own food if this is possible. More details for problems surrounding this you can find in the post “Food, Starvation and Famine – Crisis Preparedness and Survival”.
The economic system is also likely to experience some changes – if transportation costs go up there may become more profitable to grow food more locally and produce goods more locally as well. This can be seen as reverse “Globalization”. Many in the Peak Oil movement envision drastic changes like global famine, war over resources and even a sudden collapse that’s coming soon. I share much of the concern that many researchers have when it comes to areas like food production, transportation and similar issues. However I don’t believe this will result in a sudden collapse of society. However it may result in enormous problems if solutions for the problems aren’t found. The main problem as I see it is that the problem isn’t discussed that much, even if movies like “Home” and “Collapse” has increased awareness. Getting attention to the problem is only one side of the coin, the other important aspect is meaning making – what does this information mean? What will the consequences be, how can we solve the problem etc? I see a danger in that people like Ruppert mixes conspiracy theories with the peak oil problem; few will take the issue seriously if this is how the problem is presented. If you want to inform anyone about the potential problem I suggest that you recommend the movie “Home” since it’s both for free and range over a broad spectrum of problems without incorporating conspiracy theories into the problem.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Analysis
There is great deal of uncertainty when it comes to Peak Oil. It’s hard to estimate the sizes of the current reserves even if all countries produced public data on field to field production for each year. When countries don’t produce this data it’s even harder to make an estimate. And if there is a peak in oil production, how large will the decline rate be? How will economical factors affect this? What will happen to the oil price, will it increase or decrease? If it increases will it increase very fast like during other cases to a level many times over the price today or will it increase slowly? Insecurity also applies to the alternatives to fossil fuels, some believe that new alternatives will be provided by the market and other believe that alternatives like bio fuels and nuclear power may take more energy than they produce if the access to fossil fuels becomes scares.
Anything can happen, and what truly will take place only time can tell. This is a field that potentially can cause severe stress for individuals and societies in a short and long term perspective. But solutions could also be found that allows energy prices to remain low and access to energy to be great. Technological progress is very hard to predict, inventions like penicillin, the computer and many other inventions have radically changed our lives in ways that no one predicted before they were invented. However, awareness of the potential problem can help to reduce the impact of a negative development both for individuals, groups and societies if this would turn out to be the case.
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The United States Energy Information Administration - No Peak In World Oil Production In Another 23 Years
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cablle and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
The Term Peak Oil
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist born in 1903 that would later create the term “Peak Oil”. Hubbert got he’s degrees from the University of Chicago and would later work for Shell and USGS. He also worked as teacher at a number of different universities like MIT. In 1956 Hubbert presented the theory that US Oil Production would peak between 1966-1972 and start to decrease after this. Hubbert came to this theory by studying individual fields and how the production curved changed over time and adding them together. Hubbert’s estimates for the American oil production would later be proved right even if very few believed him when he first made he’s predictions.
Will There Be a Global Peak and When Will it Happen?
Many individual countries have reached their peak in oil production (peak oil) and are now in decline. Other countries than the US is Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Venezuela, Great Britain and around 40 more countries. The question many researchers ask is when the total world production will reach a peak and when the decline in World Oil Production will start. Estimates vary heavily, some researchers believe that the peak may have already been reached in 2005, others that it may happen during 2010, USGS estimates in a report from 2001 that it may take another 30 years and some Saudi experts believe that it may be 100 years before it happens.
Why is Oil so Important?
Oil originates from a period several million years ago and is basically vegetation of different sorts that have been compressed in the earth under very high pressure and temperatures. Other forms of fuels also resulted from this process like coal and natural gas. Fossil fuels are in other words solar energy that have been stored as a result of photosynthesis in combination with geological process a very long time ago. These resources are renewable, but the process takes millions of years so they are not renewable from a current human perspective. This makes the use of oil extremely energy efficient, the amount of energy one can get from taking advantage of these resources is extremely great. Oil is also easy to store and transport, it contains very much energy in relation to its weight.
Timeline
1910 A pressurized oil well in Lakeview Gusher, California starts leaking and would leak over 9 million barrels of oil over the next 18 months.
1944 During The Second World War Nazi Germany used coal to create oil in order to power their tanks and airplanes after their access to oil was reduced.
1970 The oil production in the United States peaks
1973 Saudi Arabia under its leader King Faisal imposes an Oil Embargo against the US and the Netherlands, the amount of oil that was withheld was relatively small but the consequences were big. The event caused the oil price the increase fourfold to just under 12 dollars and the price continued to rise even after the embargo was lifted. Canada Oil production also peaks in this year.
1974 Iran’s oil production peaks
1978 The Iranian Revolution takes place, after the revolution the oil production in Iran drops to around a third of its previous production and the oil prices increase rapidly.
1979 Nigeria’s oil production peaks
1979 A blowout in the Mexican oil well Ixtoc I cause around 3 million barrels of oil to leak into the Gulf of Mexico.
1982 OPEC countries stop reporting oil production on field to field basis. This is one of the major causes of insecurity since it’s very hard to estimate and predict the continued development without any data to see patterns in production for different oil fields.
1989 The oil tanker Exxon Valdez running aground outside of Alaska, spilling over 250.000 barrels of oil into the ocean.
1991 Iraq invades Kuwait War, during the response “Operation Desert Storm” Iraqi troops set fire to oil fields and tankers, many estimates of the size of the oil spill is over 10 million barrels.
1998 The oil production in Venezuela peaks
1999 The oil production in Great Britain and Qatar peaks
2000 The Oil production in Norway, Mexico and Colombia peaks
2002 Oil Production in India peaks
2005 Hurricane Katrina damage several offshore platforms.
2010 The Oil Rig “Deepwater Horizon” explodes after an accident in the Mexican Gulf. Several people died in the initial explosion and a large leak has occurred. How big the leak has been has been an debated issue, estimated has varied that 5.000 to over 100.000 barrels of crude oil per day could be leaking. Efforts have been initiated to stop and reduce the effects of the oil spill and the action from both the Obama administration and British Petroleum (BP) has been questioned.
The Saudi Perspective
Matthew Simmons, an energy investor banker has done some research on how the Oil production in Saudi Arabia have changed over time in he’s book “Twilight in the Desert”. Simmons starts at the beginning of Saudi Oil era and also goes into to detail about how political changes have taken place in country. Almost all of the major Saudi Oil fields were found in an early stage and the major Saudi Oil fields account for almost all of the Saudi Oil Production. Especially the Oil Field Ghawar has a special importance. Ghawar is the largest Oil field ever discovered and has been the sole producer for more than half of the Saudi Oil production. No other field has even come close the size and production of this field that produced over 5,5 million barrels per day at most. The second largest Oil field in the world, the Saudi offshore field Safaniya has only reached a capacity of just over 1,5 million barrels per day at most. Simmons also discuss the Saudi Oil production in relation to the American oil production that peaked in the 1970:s. In the beginning the Saudi Oil Production was ruled by the company the later was put under government control. The problem in Saudi Arabia also has other aspects; the country has enormously high birthrates, over 6 children per women in combination with a high standard of living and low child mortality rate, a combination that has resulted in a very big population increase. Water is also a big problem in Saudi Arabia; much of the water is sea-water and must be made into fresh water, a process that requires enormous amounts of energy retrieved from oil. Saudi Arabia has have a critical role in the world when an extra need for oil has taken place Saudi Arabia has produced the extra oil by putting hard pressure on their Oil Fields like during the Iranian revolution that resulted in an extremely low oil production for a few years and during the build up for Operation Desert Storm.
Simmons also shows the production rate for other giant fields outside of Saudi Arabia, and how the production rate has changed after they peaked, and suggest that it’s only natural for the Oil fields in Saudi to follow a similar pattern after they peak in production. One crucial aspect here is that almost all production in Saudi comes from a few fields and despite of intensive search for more Oil fields, non fields of similar size has been found and instead an enormous amount of time and energy has been used to increase the production in the oil fields. There is a big discussion between economist and geologist about how much oil there is in the world. Some geologist say that there is only a certain amount of oil available and money cant changed that while some economist say that when the oil price rises so does the amount of oil that available since the higher price makes it profitable to extract from locations where it was previously to expensive. Here Simmons states that technology and money invested had increased the amount of oil that Saudi has produced and continued to produce, experts from every field in combination with new technology like horizontal drilling and computer models have made an enormous difference when it comes to the amount of oil that can be retrieved from different fields. In other words Simmons combines the insights from both economists and geologists.
Movies
There have been a number of different movies made about Peak Oil and the possible consequences of this. “The end of Suburbia” was one of the first movies on this theme and it gathered a large number of different experts in the movie. “A Crude Awaking” and "Crude Impact" are two another movies that also present the same perspective.”Home” is a recent movie that focuses on both energy and environmental issues, its filmed from a aerial perspective and discusses different aspects of human development and the focuses on the need for sustainable development, this is a movie that can be seen for free online and I recommend everyone to see it. Both for the message but also because it’s proberly the best movie that has been produces on the subject. “Blind Spot” is a movie about Peak Oil with many of the leading researchers within the field that also incorporate some other researchers like Joseph Tainter; author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. Tainter explains he’s basic theory about diminishing marginal return and how this issue can be related to Peak Oil. Another movie that been produced on the same subject is the movie “Collapse” with Michael Ruppert based on Rupperts book “Confronting Collapse”. Ruppert has also written the newsletter and blog “From the Wilderness” and the book “Crossing the Rubicon”. Ruppert also incorporates financial aspects and conspiracy theories into the same theme and he’s perspective is even more negative than many of the other researchers in the same field. Ruppert has also recently launched the site “Collapse Network” where he offers advice for how to survive the coming collapse.
Researchers
There are many researchers that have written about Peak Oil. Matthew Simmons book “Twilight in the Desert” have already been mentioned as well as Michael Rupperts “Confronting Collapse” and “Crossing the Rubicon”. Examples of other researchers are Jeff Rubins “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller", Richard Heinbergs “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies” and “Peak Everything”, Dale Allan Pfeiffer “Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture” and Kenneth S. Deffeyes “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts Peak”.
There are also organizations committed to studying this phenomena like "The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas” also known as ASPO. ASPO have national organizations in many countries that you find on ASPO:s homepage. Some off the most famous researchers on ASPO is Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campell.
Alternatives
Many writers in the Peak Oil movement has also made research into the alternatives to fossil fuels like nuclear power, using coal to create liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen powered vehicles, fusion power and renewable sources of energy like water, wind, solar, bio fuels and geothermic energy.
Many critics put focus on modern agriculture and the need for both fertilizers and pest ices in order to create bio fuels and claim that in many cases bio fuels actually uses more energy from fossil fuels to make them today than the amount of energy that they make available.
Survival and Preparedness
Will there be a peak in the Oil Production? If this is the case, when will it happen and what will the consequences be? These are all very hard questions to answer. Different researchers make different assessments and the lack of data available makes it hard to make predictions and see clear trends. Personally I make the assessment that there will be a peak in global oil production sooner or later, if it haven’t already taken place. When this will happen and how fast the decline rate will be after the peak is very important. If the decline rate is very slow it will take many years before the lack of oil becomes apparent. Another very important factor is that one will only be able to know that that peak has taken place in retrospective, after it has actually happened. If the decline rate will be fast the problems will manifest sooner than if the decline rate is low. The slower the decline rate the more time there will be for finding alternative solutions and adjusting to a world with less oil available. How we will deal with this situation is the most critical aspect in my opinion. Peak Oil does not have to mean the end of the world, but it can create large problems if the decline rate will be very high and if we don’t find solutions for the problems that can be presented in form of transportation, agriculture and food production.
So how does one prepare for such an event? To start with no one really knows what the consequences will be. The basics needs for survival; shelter, water, fire, food and security etc will still be the same as today.
If you want to prepare for a scenario like this I suggest that you try to reducing your dependency on oil and energy. Do not use your car more than you have to if you have to and try to find a vehicle that don’t consume to much fuel per mile. If the cost per gallon/liter goes up it will be cheaper to drive a car if it doesn’t have an extremely high fuel consumption. Your location is also important, can you get to work by using your bike, take the bus or train? Taking the bike or walking does not only reduce costs, it also improves your fitness. Food may become more expensive if oil prices rise. In order to prepare for this I suggest that you try to have food storage and that you grow some of your own food if this is possible. More details for problems surrounding this you can find in the post “Food, Starvation and Famine – Crisis Preparedness and Survival”.
The economic system is also likely to experience some changes – if transportation costs go up there may become more profitable to grow food more locally and produce goods more locally as well. This can be seen as reverse “Globalization”. Many in the Peak Oil movement envision drastic changes like global famine, war over resources and even a sudden collapse that’s coming soon. I share much of the concern that many researchers have when it comes to areas like food production, transportation and similar issues. However I don’t believe this will result in a sudden collapse of society. However it may result in enormous problems if solutions for the problems aren’t found. The main problem as I see it is that the problem isn’t discussed that much, even if movies like “Home” and “Collapse” has increased awareness. Getting attention to the problem is only one side of the coin, the other important aspect is meaning making – what does this information mean? What will the consequences be, how can we solve the problem etc? I see a danger in that people like Ruppert mixes conspiracy theories with the peak oil problem; few will take the issue seriously if this is how the problem is presented. If you want to inform anyone about the potential problem I suggest that you recommend the movie “Home” since it’s both for free and range over a broad spectrum of problems without incorporating conspiracy theories into the problem.
There are also organizations like the Transition Network that works to teach people self sufficiency, self reliance, canning and other skills. Some of the threats that they envision are Peak Oil and resource depletion. This type of groups does not only offer the possibility to learn skills for long term survival and self sufficiency but also offers an opportunity to get involved, network and get to know people with similar interests.
Analysis
There is great deal of uncertainty when it comes to Peak Oil. It’s hard to estimate the sizes of the current reserves even if all countries produced public data on field to field production for each year. When countries don’t produce this data it’s even harder to make an estimate. And if there is a peak in oil production, how large will the decline rate be? How will economical factors affect this? What will happen to the oil price, will it increase or decrease? If it increases will it increase very fast like during other cases to a level many times over the price today or will it increase slowly? Insecurity also applies to the alternatives to fossil fuels, some believe that new alternatives will be provided by the market and other believe that alternatives like bio fuels and nuclear power may take more energy than they produce if the access to fossil fuels becomes scares.
Anything can happen, and what truly will take place only time can tell. This is a field that potentially can cause severe stress for individuals and societies in a short and long term perspective. But solutions could also be found that allows energy prices to remain low and access to energy to be great. Technological progress is very hard to predict, inventions like penicillin, the computer and many other inventions have radically changed our lives in ways that no one predicted before they were invented. However, awareness of the potential problem can help to reduce the impact of a negative development both for individuals, groups and societies if this would turn out to be the case.
ASPO TV
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has started a web based platform where lectures from different researchers within the Peak Oil movement can be streamed online for free called ASPO TV. On this Webpage you can view many of the experts within the field from the 2010 World Conference on Peak Oil. This is a perfect source for anyone how would like to learn more about the subject.
The speakers that are currently available for free are:
Lawrence Rice: "Energy and Security"
Jeff Rubin: "Oil and the End of Globalization"
Dr. James Schlesinger: "The Peak Oil Debate is Over"
Bianca Jagger: "Beyond Petroleum: What Are The Options?"
Ralph Nader: "Energy and Policy"
The following speakers are also availble for ASPO members
Ken Zweibel: "The Law of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Sharon Astyk: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr Anthony Perl: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Charles E. Schlumberger: "Can We Fill The Gap?"
Dr. Tad Patzek: "The Laws of Energy, Technology and Scale"
Other Articles
Is Peak Oil Already Here?
The United States Energy Information Administration - No Peak In World Oil Production In Another 23 Years
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cablle and The Worlds Largest Oil Fields
Things You Can Do In Order To Prepare For Peak Oil
The Battle of Perception has Begun
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