The New WikiLeaks Publication and Iran’s Nuclear Program

WikiLeaks has been one of the most controversial organizations in the world during the last year. The site has published a long number of controversial documents over the years including
• The Climate Gate E-Mails concerning the subject of Global Warming
• The Afghan War Diaries
• Secret Files from Guantanamo Bay
• The Cablegate with the publishing of secret US Diplomatic Cables

Today WikiLeaks has released around 200-emails from the Private Security Firm Stratfor. In the end of the last year Stratfor was hacked by a group that is believed to be Anonymous; in the initial media reports the event was described largely as an attempt to steal credit card numbers but it has become clear that 5 million e-mails from the company also were obtained. Today WikiLeaks made the announcement that they will start publishing some of the e-mails in cooperation with a number of different newspapers including The Rolling Stone and The Sunday Star Times.

There has been an enormous controversy surrounding WikiLeaks and its founder this year; Julian Assange is currently in Great Britain awaiting a possible extradition to Sweden for two alleged cases of Rape and Bradley Manning how is believed to have leaked information to WikiLeaks is currently being court marshaled after being under military custody since May 2010 when he was arrested in Iraq. Assange has been portrayed as terrorist by some and as a hero by others.

Iran’s Nuclear Program
One of the hottest subjects during the last period of time has been Iran’s nuclear program. It’s believed by some that Iran’s program that the country is claiming is an attempt to create a civilian program for nuclear power may also be an attempt of constructing nuclear bombs. The European Union has decided to impose sanctions against Iran and stop oil imports from Iran.

Iran currently exports just over 2 million barrels of oil per day of the around 4 mb/d they produce per day (World Energy Outlook 2011: p 134-135). Iran’s Oil Production Peak around 1970 with a production of over 5 million barrels per day and the country still has 10% of the world reported oil reserves. From this perspective Iran’s effort to invest in nuclear power seems natural since it will allow the country to export more of its declining oil production instead of using it to produce electricity for their own population. The Iranian production of electricity does not provide enough power for entire nation; it is currently estimated that 25% of the villages in Iran lack the access to electricity.

In the media there has been steady reports concerning the situation and fears that Israel might launch an attack against Iran’s nuclear program like it did against the Iraqi Osirak Reactor in 1981 and as it did in 2007 against a facility in Syria. In the recent e-mails from WikiLeaks a surprising series of e-mails has emerged.

Israeli Attacks against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities?
The discussion in the media has largely circulated against the Israeli capability to carry out an airstrike against the facilities in Iran but today information has become available that suggest that attacks against facilities in Iran might already have taken place. In a series of e-mails an alleged Israeli source has provided information that suggested that

“Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
infrastructure had been destroyed. Source response:

Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed
few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense
and nuclear research projects.”

This statement can also be linked to a number of media reports; a report from BBC the 12th of November 2011 shows a satellite picture where extensive damage to buildings being explained as an explosion in an ammunition depot by officials from Iran killing 17 soldiers. In the e-mails from Stratfor the discussion regarding the implications of this information continues:

“In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to
launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
commandos destroyed a significant part of it.”

According to the e-mails the source was also asked regarding if he believed that Israel was planning a military attack against Iran and the answer was

"Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
were preparing a military offensive against Iran. Response:

I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
ago. The current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the
EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
financial problems. It plays also well for the US since
Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report."

The information in this series of e-mails is very interesting and raises a number of questions
• Has Iran’s Nuclear Program been damaged or destroyed by Israeli forces?
• How can it be that a non state actor can get their hands on this type of Intelligence from personnel working within state Intelligence Agencies?
• What type of implication will there be now when this information has become public?

Conclusion
It’s very hard to assess if the new information provided by WikiLeaks is real. It’s also hard to know if the source that was discussed in these e-mails were actually telling the truth. But some the information provided in the e-mails match other data and news reports adding to the credibility that it is. In my opinion this type of information is controversial since it causes trouble for public and private actors around the world; but it also provides the public and media with a rare opportunity to get insights into what might be going on behind the scene. Weapons of Mass Destruction are a very sensitive subject and were one of the main arguments supporting the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The other trend with the Privatization of Security in the form of Private Military Companies (PMC) and Private Security Companies (PSC) is a very important trend that is not often discussed in the media. In this case the leakage of information seems to have occurred twice; first from someone working within the Israeli Intelligence Community to the private company Stratfor and later from the hacking of Stratfor.

After the terrorist attacks of 9/11 2001 one of the criticisms was that the American Intelligence Agencies did not share enough information; the many report published by WikiLeaks show that opening up this type of systems can make them very vulnerable when individuals and group can get their hands on this information and make it public. It also raises the subject concerning how often this happens but never becomes public.

Also see:
Peak Oil and Our Mental Models - The WikiLeaks Cable and the Worlds Largest Oil Fields

An Education – The Most Important Tool For a Bug Out?

Within the Preppers and Survivalist Bug Out Bags (BOB) and Evacuations is a common subject that is often discussed. Different types of natural disasters like Wild Fires and Hurricanes may force people to leave their homes in order to avoid death or injury. But there are also Man-Made threats that may force people to leave their homes like Wars, Civil Wars and failing technical systems like a Nuclear Power Plant Meltdown.

Long Term Displacement
Wars have often always been a major factor forcing people to leave their homes. During the Second World War many fled the affected areas in order to avoid the fighting, bombings and occupation forces. After the end of the World War over one million people were displaced. The process to rebuild destroyed housing and infrastructure would take a very long time.

During modern civil wars and collapsed states it’s not uncommon that more than half of the entire population is displaced either within the affected country or forced to flee to other countries. The violence during civil wars often involve systematic attacks against the civilian populations in forms of artillery attacks, snipers, torture, systematic sexual violence, torture, amputating limbs, forced castrations and other abuses making the level of terror extremely high. Its often common that specific groups becomes target through ethnic cleansing; its can often be very hard for these groups to return after the conflicts end; this has been the case for different groups on the Balkan and for Palestinian refugees. The lack of state institutions and dysfunctional political leadership in collapsed states makes these settings very problematic and the road to recovery is often very long.

People do not only move when there forced; many also try to move to other countries to get away from poverty and in order to get better opportunities. This has been the case many times throughout history and is still the case today. There are also other more disturbing trends like the Trafficking of People and Slavery attached to this problem; vulnerable people after conflicts may often end up being the victims of this type of activities.

Many talk about Bug Out Bags like a tool intended to support you for 72 hours; if your forced to leave your home it might be for good. Your home may not be there when you return or other conditions may make it impossible to return. Survival for most people more than knowing how to build a fire, navigate, build a shelter, purify water and signal for help. For most people making through everyday life is about having a job and being able to have an income.

Livelihoods and an Education
Knowledge, Skills and Experience are things that are always with you. If you are ever displaced being able to find a work in a different location or country can become much more important than having traditional survival related skills. An education is a valuable tool for many reasons;

• It means that you have some kind of specialized knowledge that everyone does not have.

• Many jobs like Doctors, Nurses, Dentists and Engineers are needed everywhere and the chances of finding a job are often high.

• You get the opportunity to get to know a lot of people and expend your social network; this can be just as important as the education itself during your life.

• You get learn how to work through and analyze large quantities of information, source criticism and methodology.

Different professions have a different status over the world but some are needed no matter what. Having an education or specialized profession does not only provide a form of security in your everyday life; for many that been forced to leave their homes it has provided an opportunity to start over. I suggest that no matter what your profession is that you try to expand your knowledge and get specialized knowledge related to this field. Unskilled jobs can be hard to find and the salary can often be very low.

Language Barriers and Discrimination is problems that can often face refugees and immigrants in their new settings. Discrimination can make it hard to find a job but also cause other problems like harassments and problems with law enforcement, institutions and other officials. Learning how to speak different languages can help you to minimize these problems but also make it possible for you to practice your profession in other settings. People how are forced to flee to other nations often find themselves in a long process before they are given a citizenship and may also have to cope with other challenges like physical and emotional trauma while adjusting to a new unfamiliar setting.

Never Stop Learning
Gaining knowledge, skills and experience is a constantly ongoing process. No one knows everything; we always have new things to learn. If you have the opportunity to get an education I suggest that you take the chance. Getting an education is a privilege; don’t waste the chance if you get it. For most people there are several ways to gain new knowledge; taking evening courses; joining different organizations; studying on your own or utilizing opportunities provided by your work.

If there is professions that you would like to learn don’t let anything stop you. It’s often common that the people around us may have expectations or strong opinions regarding what ways that we should walk. Find your own way and follow it.

Conclusion
Many Survivalist and Preppers approach the subject or evacuations or “Bugging Out” from a perspective that it is a tool intended to provide you with what you need to make it through the first time after a disaster. There is also a tendency to focus heavily on equipment such as Bug Out Bags (BOB), Survival Knives, Lights, Pocket Survival Kits, Every Day Carry (EDC), Get Home Bags (GHB) and stockpiling equipment. Having the right equipment can be critical in many situations; but having the knowledge, skills, experience and physical fitness required to utilize this resources is just as important. Equipment and physical possessions can be lost in a matter of seconds from natural disasters or a fire. The knowledge, skills and experience that you have is something that you always carry with you. Survivors can find themselves in a situation when their home, their saving and their old jobs have been lost; being forced to travel to other regions or even other nations in order to find safety. Millions of people all around the world have been forced to take this step throughout history; if you ever are forced to make this transition a Bug Out Bag can be valuable tool; but having an education or a specialized profession can be much more important.

Story Driven vs. Risk Driven Preparedness

For Many Survivalist and Preppers fictional stories are an important part of preparing for potential disasters; this article will take a quick look at these stories and suggest an alternative approach.

The End Of The World As We Know It
The World as We Know it is about to come to an end. The true reason for this can vary (economical, political, terrorism, Peak Oil, EMP etc) but the imagined end is the same. The End will come fast, very fast. It’s likely that we will experience and enormous amount of civil disturbance and violence. Everything that we have become accustomed too is likely to disappear. The Question is not if this will happen. The question is When it will happen. The signs are all around us. The state of the economy, Peak Oil, Global Warming, International Tensions, Terrorism and much more. The World System is like a House of Cards, it will only take a push and it will all come crashing down.

It’s important to stockpile food, water, weapons and ammunition. Those how haven’t will try to take what they need from those how have prepared. These “Raiders” will attack everything and everyone. Therefore it’s critical to maintain what you have an absolute secret. This is often referred to as OPSEC; if no one knows what you have they can’t steal it.

This type of Storytelling that we can see within the Prepper and Survivalist is not something that is shared by everyone, but it is relatively common. This type of stories is represented in fictional literature like James Wesley Rawles book “Patriots” and William Forstchens “One Second After” but can also be found in Hollywood movies. There are some common parts; The Belief that The World As We Know It Will Come To An End, That it will take place soon and That it can’t be stopped.

Risk Oriented Preparedness
All people face different types of Risks and Threats depending on their location. This is both affected by the Geographical location that affects what type of Natural Disasters like Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes and Tornadoes that might affect the individual. But the location is also critical for other type of potential hazards related to human activities like Human Conflict, Terrorism and Failing Technical Systems.

A Risk Assessment is a structured tool to help you create a good understanding of Risks you face but it can also create a situation of false security. It’s important that you also understand what type of events that you don’t regard as threats and why you don’t believe that this type of events poses a threat. It’s also important to realize that everyone has Blind Spots; Potential Risks that we are unaware of. There are also events that are not anticipated by almost anyone; these types of events are often referred to as Black Swans after the concept introduced by Taleb Nassim.

Building Your Capacity To Deal With Emergencies
Having the ability to Cope with Disasters not only as possessing the right tools but also having the experience and skills required to utilize these resources. Here Knowledge, Skills and Experience and Physical Fitness and Health are variables that can be more valuable than the equipment you own. Without training and skills a First Aid Kit is of little use and the same goes for all type of equipment – it can make a difference but you must be able to utilize this resource. Other Critical Factors are also External Factors like your Family, Social Network and other type of resources like First Responders that may assist you during an Emergency.

The World is Changing
The World is not a static place, the World is constantly changing and individuals are constantly changing as well. In a Risk Oriented Preparedness it is important to adapt to the changes both in your personal life but also when it comes to the situation around you. People get older, may change their location, their family situation can change and new political, economical and environmental challenges can appear. So instead of viewing the problem as a linear problem where you first make a analysis and then take action I suggest that you approach the subject from a cyclical perspective where you will always have to adapt to the ongoing reality. The same goes for skills, in order to maintain skills repeated training is required. Focus on potential disasters for what they truly are. Instead of approaching the subject from a One Size Fits all point of view where stockpiling supplies prepares you for every possible scenario actually analyze threats and risks for their specific consequences.

Two Approaches: An Analysis
There many examples throughout history when civilizations have Collapsed. There are also many contemporary examples when States have either Collapsed or Failed or various levels; Afghanistan, Somalia, Sierra Leone, The Conflict in former Yugoslavia and Rwanda are some examples. But these examples do not necessary follow the storyline imagined in fictional novels.

Many reason that if they are prepared for the absolutely worst they are also prepared for less extensive disasters like Earthquakes or Hurricanes. The Problem here is that every disaster is specific in its origin and consequences. Have a year’s worth of food do not necessary prepare you for an Earthquake; in order to prepare for this type of scenario training in First Aid, having the right Insurance and choosing a building and location that has the proper resistance may be much more important.

Disaster Preparedness is big business today. Many companies make large profits selling everything from food to flashlights, survival kits and ready to go Bug Out Bags. For many bloggers and writers making the worst predictions is a way of getting the most attention. What I want to raise in this article is that preparedness should not simply be bases upon fictional fear driven stories. You should make efforts that make sense for your personal situation and setting.

One critical factor is that the Storytelling does not welcome the idea of working together with others in the name of OPSEC. This a personal choose for everyone must make, but I personally see it as problem if people disregard the idea of working together with others based upon a fictional idea. Another critical factor is that some individuals use the SHTF / TEOTWAWKI as a Mental Model, taking any information that indicates a negative development and believes that it indicates that end is near.

In this article I have criticized some of Storytelling that often can be seen within the Survivalist and Prepper Movement. This does not mean that I do not recommend people to Prepare for Potential Disasters or Crisis Situations. The aim of The Free Online Survival Guide is to provide readers with resources so that they may enhance their own ability to deal with Crisis Situations and Disasters. This article is intended to move the Focus from the Fictional Stories that motivates many to a Perspective when you put Your own Situation, Your Own Needs and Your own Analysis in Focus.

Analyzing Risks

Two of the most popular acronyms within the Prepper and Survivalist Community are SHTF (Shit Hit The Fan) and TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It). What these acronyms truly represent is a matter that varies heavily depending on how that does the classification. Some people can use SHTF as way to describe that they lost their job while other use it to describe a full scale breakdown of modern society. In this article I will take an alternative look at this subject and try to give some alternative suggestions concerning how one can approach and think about different type of Disasters and Risks. This article is also intended to be a complement to the article about Risk Assessments intended to provide a more comprehensive framework for assessing the potential impacts of various threats.

1.) The Scale
Disasters comes in all forms and sizes; from large scale natural disasters like Earthquakes that may affect tens thousands of people to smaller disasters like automobile accidents that may just involve a few people. A disaster may just involve a few persons a personal level, it may affect a local community, a region, an entire nation or it may affect the world on a global level.

2.) Consequences
Disasters may affect people in many kinds of ways; one of the obvious results is Casualties in the form of dead and wounded. Disasters can also affect the physical and mental health of those affected; and in many cases like the nuclear power plant meltdowns in Chernobyl and Fukushima it can be very difficult to establish exactly what the long term effects for the affected will be.

Infrastructure is something that can often be affected resulting in a situation when roads, the electrical grid, gas pipes, electronic communications, water pipes and sewage maybe interrupted. This can be the case during wars and natural disasters but there are also other types of disasters like pandemics that may not affect infrastructure.

Property and Economical Loses is often a major problem when people can lose their homes, savings, businesses and jobs. People can get injured or disabled resulting in additional long term economical los.

Disasters often have Other direct consequences for politics especially in the form of blame games and assigning guilt. This can result in everything from political resignations, or new institutions like the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

This is just a few examples of what type of consequences a disaster can have; all disasters are unique and have their own specific effects. The result of these effects is not only the disaster itself, it is also an effect by the of buildings in case of earthquakes, topography, what economical resources that is available, the resources and training of first responders and the population density of an affected area just to name a few possible factors.

3.) The Perspective of Time
Fast or Slow Onset
Disasters are often viewed as fast dramatic events like the Haiti Earthquake or The Nuclear attacks against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This is however not the case in all types of disasters, some disasters slowly gain momentum like Famine and Starvation. Two examples of other potential slow onset threats are Peak Oil and Global Warming. Other type of threats like Hurricanes can be detected days before they strike and thereby allowing an Early Warning.

The Duration
Some disasters like Earthquakes and Tsunamis can cause an enormous amount of damage during a very short period of time and then be over. Other type of disasters like Famine or an Economical Depression may last for months, years or even decades.

For individuals this aspect can indicate how much food or water storage that may appropriate for different disasters, for organizations that work with Crisis Management this can provide an insight into to what type of endurance the organization must be able to poses in order to manage emergencies with an extended duration including aspects like the rotation of man-power and how much supplies that must be available.

4.) The Origin of the Disasters: Man-Made or Natural Disasters
One very popular way to describe disasters is to split them into two categories; Man-Made and Natural Disasters. Natural Disasters involve all type of natural phenomena like Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, Wild Fires, Hurricanes and Tornadoes. Man-Made disasters refer to events like Human Conflict, War, Terrorism and large scale accidents and failure of technical systems. This distinction between the origins is not perfect; many researchers emphasize that the Impact of Natural Disasters is a direct consequence of building standards, population density, access to Early Warning Systems to name a few factors. This is especially clear when it comes to number of dead in high-income countries and low income countries in various disasters. Natural Disasters can also trigger the failure of Man-Made systems like case of the Fukushima Nuclear Power plant Disaster.

Conclusion
This article is intended to provide some support for people how want to get a better understanding of Risks and Threats they may face. In this article I have discussed some of aspects of disasters but it’s important to understand that every disaster and risks presents its own specific challenges. One Size Does Not Fit All.

After you finished your Risk Assessment and Analyzed the specific Risks it’s also important to think about what Risks that you have not included into you assessments. A Risk Assessment can be of great help but it can also mask threats; especially those that does not correspond well to current trends and knowledge. What potential danger do you not view as Risks and Why? What information supports your assumptions and what information challenge them?

Also see
Risk Assessments

Happy New Year!

I would like to wish all the people that have been reading my blog a Happy New Year! This year has been by far the most successful year since I started writing the blog with 10.000-17.500 hit per month. I would like to thank all the readers for your support and for sharing my blog through E-mail, Social Networks and on forums. A special thanks also goes out to The Survivalist Boards (SB) and the American Preppers Network (APN).

If you like the blog please vote for it at the site Survival Top 50, this is also a site where you can find many other survival related blogs and additional information.

It’s often popular to make prediction concerning what the New Year will bring; but I will try to refrain from this. I personally think that the previous Year has been very interesting with many developments like the Arabian Spring, The Occupy Wall Street Movement, The Current Economical Crisis in Europe and the Fukushima Nuclear Power plant Disaster. That Peak Oil is starting to get more and more attention is also an interesting development even if the US Energy Information Agency is not raising the subject. So to all of you out there; I wish you the best of luck with your preps and efforts for 2012.

Sibi Totique