Within the
Survivalist and Prepper community the concept SHTF is often used in order to
describe an event that will require the tools often discussed as tactics to
handle a massive breakdown of the modern institutions, infrastructure, law and
order. WROL or Without the Rule of Law has also started to be used in order to
describe such an event.
The main
problem as I see it is that this type of thinking focuses on a single event
that will suddenly change everything about modern life. History shows us that
many previous civilizations have collapsed; the Romans, Mayans and the people
of the Easter Islands are just some examples. Modern examples are also
available like the collapse of the Soviet Union, the collapse of former
Yugoslavia, the Genocide in Rwanda and a number of civil wars and more or less
collapsed states like Afghanistan, Iraq, Congo and Somalia. The difficulty of
reversing this process has been demonstrated in several conflicts where
comprehensive peace building and state building processes have place. So we
know that countries, systems and civilizations can and have failed over the
course of history. Sometimes a collapse can have absolutely devastating
results, but in some cases it can also be relatively peaceful as in the case of
the Soviet Union.
What if a
Collapse is not an event but a Process?
Within the
Survivalist and Prepper movement different types of tactics and solutions has
been developed in order to be able to cope with a sudden collapse of modern
society;
·
The
ability to escape an area buy having kit such as Bug Out Bags, Vehicles and
Plans for Escape to safer areas or alternative locations where supplies are
being stored.
·
Collecting
and storing equipment, supplies, water and other essentials in the home so that
one can “Bug In” without having to rely on others.
This type
of tactics can be effective for disasters with a fast onset like a hurricane, a
nuclear plant meltdown and large scale accidents, but this does not mean that
this type tactics is well suited all situations. As the Economic Crisis within
the European Union progresses many choose to leave their homes and even their
home countries in order to find jobs and livelihoods. For this type of
situation a fully equipped Bug Out Bag is not as an effective tool as an education,
skills and knowledge that makes it possible to find a job elsewhere.
As the
situation progresses it becomes clear that the standard of living that many
have experienced may become a thing of the past. Things that might be expected
are
·
Higher
unemployment and a tougher job market
·
Lower
wages
·
Higher
taxes
·
Higher
prices on food, water, energy and fuel
·
Social
services like schools, healthcare, law enforcement, military and other
functions of states may decrease in size and function.
·
Pensions
being lost or lowered and the age for retirement being raised.
These
threats present a number of challenges to individuals and families; especially
those how already have low marginal in their economic situation. There are no
easy solutions for these types of problems but there are of course thing that
can be done by individuals and families. It’s also important to say that all
regions in the world may not develop the same; some regions may continue to
experience economical growth while other regions may go the other way.
Some
suggested steps for increasing your resilience
·
Try
to reduce your level of debt and pay of any loans you might have, in a
situation when the economy no longer grows it can become very hard to pay
interest on loans while your salary remains the same or event get lowered.
·
Try
to make some savings and put some money away every month; investing money in
gold, silver, land and other type of values can also be a way to improve your
situation.
·
Learn
how to make do with less and save where you can.
·
Work
together with your community; it is likely that many services may no longer be
available in the same way as they have before. Non Governmental Organizations
already provides services for Search and Rescue, Education and Social Services and
other fields around the world.
·
When
buying gear try to investment in quality gear that will stand the test of time.
Also try to repair and learn to repair gear instead of throwing things away and
buying something new as soon as it breaks.
·
Find
local opportunities and local options to ensure your basic needs.
Conclusion
First of
all; I don’t want to pretend that I know what tomorrow will bring. There are
however a number of challenges that is not being recognized either as parts or
as a whole by the political and economical community. Viewing a potential
collapse as a process and not as an event presents a number of problems to actually
preparing for such an event. One thing that is clear however is that as things
change what we regard as normal will change over time, lower wages, higher gas
prices, lowered pensions and other problems will no longer be viewed as
imminent disaster, but as everyday life.
The
political system in the United States and within the European Union is focused
on the notion of growth. This makes it very hard to recognize that there might
be limitations like
· Fossil
fuels that provide over 80% of all energy used today are not an unlimited
recourse and that we might reach a Peak in the world production.
·
That
land is not an unlimited recourse
·
Other
renewable and non renewable resource like topsoil, phosphor, fresh water and
forests does not exist in an unlimited quantity.
·
That
the increase of the world population might create challenges and problems
Adapting to
such a situation is not easy and solutions that work in some settings for some
people may not work in other settings. Solutions must be based on the local climate,
terrain, population and opportunities that exist. Some change may come from the
top of the political and economical system but it’s likely that challenges presented
will be ignored and that adapting to the changing situation will have to be
done by people themselves; you have to take responsibility for your own
situation.